Omicron Cases Soar

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5 hours ago, Willy Wombat said:

France had 100000.oo cases the other day.

A dirty, unhygienic and

under vaccinated country like Thailand is guaranteed to have the same numbers if not more if they ever tested and counted correctly 

First off, Thailand has about 65% of its population vaccinated. 73% have had at least one vaccination. That may not be quite enough, but it's certainly better than some developed nations.

And whatever the truth of your statement about Thailand being dirty and unhygenic, covid is not transmitted by unclean surfaces or by consumption of food. It is transmitted via respiration.

And finally, at least where I live in Thailand, the wearing of masks in public spaces is virtually universally practiced.  How does that compare to practices in the hygienic paradises in the West.

[James105]

2 hours ago, Stargeezr said:

I just seen the reason why the UK is having COVID spikes. They are still allowing Soccer or football games with

huge crowds.  What could possibly go wrong?  Then there is the USA and Canada where some idiots, still

think, that they will lose their freedom somehow, so will not get a vaccination.  I even have a couple of stupid relatives

who are holding out, and do not believe the news on TV, they only believe what they read or watch on their

computers. I do hope that not too many people have to go to the hospitals if they catch COVID, but I believe that

hospitals will be full for a lot of months yet, and if staff are quitting from the extra stress and many deaths that

they all still see, that is going to affect hospitals in the future, when they are all looking for nurses.

  Maybe Omicron and the next variants will be less deadly, and I sure hope so.

Everyone in the UK who wanted a vaccine has had a vaccine.   Those who wanted a booster have had a booster.   They now have to deal with a variant of a virus that is 50-70% less deadly than the previous one with just 5% of hospital beds being taken up with covid patients.  Other than for tyrannical reasons, why exactly would they need to prevent people from going to watch the football?   They are so unconcerned about staffing levels in the NHS in the UK that on 1st April 100,000 unvaccinated staff will be fired if they do not get the jab.   Any employer who can afford to lose that many employees is clearly overstaffed.   

 

The UK sees the most numbers as they test the most, especially in the lead up to Christmas as no-one wants to unwittingly infect granny at Christmas dinner even if she had 5 or 6 hits of the vaccine.    You can expect the "cases" to drop drastically by mid January as everyone stays in to recover from the post Christmas/new year hangover and just won't bother testing at all unless they actually feel ill.   

[catturd]

5 hours ago, Willy Wombat said:

A dirty, unhygienic and

under vaccinated country like Thailand

 ,,,,,,and maybe India too, but despite their "hygiene" levels, their covid death rates are a fraction of France's covid death rate.

[jingjai9]

I am quite confident that the Omicron variant will be reason enough to extend the closing of bars and entertainment places beyond January 15th, the only question that remains is for how long.

[JomtienEats]

19 minutes ago, jingjai9 said:

I am quite confident that the Omicron variant will be reason enough to extend the closing of bars and entertainment places beyond January 15th, the only question that remains is for how long.

I'm hopeful Omicron is the beginning of the end. There's just no containing it any more, and everyone, even the Chinese, will be forced to pursue herd immunity. It could be brutal, depending on the omicron hospitalization/fatality rate, but herd immunity might be only 2 months away.

[catturd]

9 minutes ago, JomtienEats said:

I wondered why Thailand had such low rates of COVID for so long -

Who can say with any degree of certainty what's going on in Thailand. They recorded the first corona virus case outside China way back in January 2020.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-22/thailand-defies-odds-to-successfully-manage-coronavirus-pandemic/12359632

[ozimoron]

59 minutes ago, James105 said:

Everyone in the UK who wanted a vaccine has had a vaccine.   Those who wanted a booster have had a booster.   They now have to deal with a variant of a virus that is 50-70% less deadly than the previous one with just 5% of hospital beds being taken up with covid patients.  Other than for tyrannical reasons, why exactly would they need to prevent people from going to watch the football?   They are so unconcerned about staffing levels in the NHS in the UK that on 1st April 100,000 unvaccinated staff will be fired if they do not get the jab.   Any employer who can afford to lose that many employees is clearly overstaffed.   

 

The UK sees the most numbers as they test the most, especially in the lead up to Christmas as no-one wants to unwittingly infect granny at Christmas dinner even if she had 5 or 6 hits of the vaccine.    You can expect the "cases" to drop drastically by mid January as everyone stays in to recover from the post Christmas/new year hangover and just won't bother testing at all unless they actually feel ill.   

100,000 health staff refusing to have a vaccine despite the risk of being fired? I smell cows. As usual no evidence from the anti vaxers.

[James105]

53 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

100,000 health staff refusing to have a vaccine despite the risk of being fired? I smell cows. As usual no evidence from the anti vaxers.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-vaccines-compulsory-nhs-staff-b965120.html

 

try a quick google search next time so you don’t look silly… and try a better argument than name calling as most people have been vaxxed, its just that rational minded people don’t like to see coercion related to this sort of thing. 

[ozimoron]

1 hour ago, James105 said:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-vaccines-compulsory-nhs-staff-b965120.html

 

try a quick google search next time so you don’t look silly… and try a better argument than name calling as most people have been vaxxed, its just that rational minded people don’t like to see coercion related to this sort of thing. 

You implied that all those people would be fired. The stat is that that many remain to be vaccinated, a completely different statistic. There is no suggestion that anything like that many are reluctant to get the vaccine. The link does not support your contention that 100,000 are likely to be fired. The vast majority of them will get vaccinated. Even if I was wrong it wasn't the point of my post. My point was the anti vaxxers NEVER post evidence in the first instance.

 

[Glassjaw]

21 hours ago, The Hammer2021 said:

inhuman  thoughtless rubbish

Not necessarily. If the majority are vaccinated and boosted then it’s a mild illness and you can get things over with faster. I know a lot who are just double jabbed and felt it as a bad cold. The Uk government may seem bold to keep things open in England as it rages, but it’s better than delaying things and longer, destructive restrictions.

[tomyami]

Report in the Guardian saying that many scientists think the U.K. has already peaked. If that is the case, then the downward slide will be pretty rapid, as it was in South Africa. We are at the most 2 weeks behind the U.K. I can see our peak coming in early to mid January. We will be out the other end of this by the end of January. I really don’t see lockdowns on the horizon or schools closing. Covid has evolved into a strain of the common cold in the same way the Russian flu did at the end of the 19th century.

And thailand is 4 weeks away for this it cannot be stopped and slowing prolongs the pain

[candide]

4 hours ago, catturd said:

 ,,,,,,and maybe India too, but despite their "hygiene" levels, their covid death rates are a fraction of France's covid death rate.

Only if you assume that all covid deaths are counted.

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/official-counts-of-covid-19-deaths-are-underestimated-in-south-asia-world-bank-report/articleshow/86842303.cms

 

[James105]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

You implied that all those people would be fired. The stat is that that many remain to be vaccinated, a completely different statistic. There is no suggestion that anything like that many are reluctant to get the vaccine. The link does not support your contention that 100,000 are likely to be fired. The vast majority of them will get vaccinated. Even if I was wrong it wasn't the point of my post. My point was the anti vaxxers NEVER post evidence in the first instance.

 

Since you accuse others of not supplying evidence - where exactly is your evidence that the majority of these people will take it? In the UK the people who worked in the health service were the highest priority to be vaxxed so have had ample opportunity to take it.   Since they work in the health service there is a very high chance they have already had covid and probably do not see the point in taking a pointless risk of taking the vaccine on top of already having natural immunity.  

 

You sound a bit unhinged with your anti vax name calling.  I have had 2 jabs but I had them voluntarily - I see no medical or scientific reasoning behind vaccine coercion and as per usual with the likes of the covid nutjobs, you provide no evidence of how many lives will be saved by losing (potentially) 100,000 health workers in the UK.  

[ozimoron]

28 minutes ago, James105 said:

Since you accuse others of not supplying evidence - where exactly is your evidence that the majority of these people will take it? In the UK the people who worked in the health service were the highest priority to be vaxxed so have had ample opportunity to take it.   Since they work in the health service there is a very high chance they have already had covid and probably do not see the point in taking a pointless risk of taking the vaccine on top of already having natural immunity.  

 

You sound a bit unhinged with your anti vax name calling.  I have had 2 jabs but I had them voluntarily - I see no medical or scientific reasoning behind vaccine coercion and as per usual with the likes of the covid nutjobs, you provide no evidence of how many lives will be saved by losing (potentially) 100,000 health workers in the UK.  

I never alleged that the whole 100K would have vaccines. I didn't make any assertion. The link was erroneously provided as evidence that the NHS was in danger of losing 100K staff due to mass firings. As such, I don't need to provide a link to my non assertion. I do believe I have a very good track record of providing links to evidence to support any claims I make. The only exceptions are when those links have previously been provided. I stand by my assertion that people who make claims without substantiation and then, when challenged, respond with "google it" or "it's common knowledge" are arguing in bad faith.

 

It is antithetical for me to believe that health workers are reluctant to get vaccinated when they know the danger they pose to vulnerable patients by not doing so and this is the basis for my challenge to your claim. Again, your link can't be interpreted as meaning that the NHS is in danger of losing 100K vaccine reluctant staff. The entire US military stands to lose only a few thousand.

[Scott]

A post making reference to the 'Chinese Virus' has been removed along with replies. 

[catturd]

41 minutes ago, candide said:

Only if you assume that all covid deaths are counted.

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/official-counts-of-covid-19-deaths-are-underestimated-in-south-asia-world-bank-report/articleshow/86842303.cms

 

Yeah, ok I see that. So, maybe France and India have similar CFR's unless France has "underestimated" this metric as well.

 

But the funny part is this:

 "There is a growing sense that official counts of Covid-19 deaths are underestimated in South Asia, including India and do not reflect the actual scale of the pandemic, a latest World Bank report indicated on Thursday"

Where I come from that's unconvincing speculation and fails the prima facia test. If we assumed facts based on a "growing sense", 555,

No proof, hard evidence, etc exists and none was presented in your link.

Sure, all the data we see reported daily and globally is not easy to compute accurately at times and is often theoretical and based on algorithms churning away in the basement of the CDC as an example, but to expect "a growing sense" to fly is comic.

Unless the World Bank can correct the reporting errors and provide accurate data we have no alternative data sources despite our "growing senses" and I ask you to refute the Oxford data as presented in the metric I referred to and submit the accurate 7 day rolling average of deaths/milion for India, until you do we can "assume" you don't have any data and the death rates in my post stand as data for reference purposes here.

 

[Bkk Brian]

18 minutes ago, catturd said:

Yeah, ok I see that. So, maybe France and India have similar CFR's unless France has "underestimated" this metric as well.

 

But the funny part is this:

 "There is a growing sense that official counts of Covid-19 deaths are underestimated in South Asia, including India and do not reflect the actual scale of the pandemic, a latest World Bank report indicated on Thursday"

Where I come from that's unconvincing speculation and fails the prima facia test. If we assumed facts based on a "growing sense", 555,

No proof, hard evidence, etc exists and none was presented in your link.

Sure, all the data we see reported daily and globally is not easy to compute accurately at times and is often theoretical and based on algorithms churning away in the basement of the CDC as an example, but to expect "a growing sense" to fly is comic.

Unless the World Bank can correct the reporting errors and provide accurate data we have no alternative data sources despite our "growing senses" and I ask you to refute the Oxford data as presented in the metric I referred to and submit the accurate 7 day rolling average of deaths/milion for India, until you do we can "assume" you don't have any data and the death rates in my post stand as data for reference purposes here.

 

Or you could try reading some peer reviewed scientific studies on the under counting of covid deaths in India:

 

Mortality in Chennai increased substantially but heterogeneously during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the greatest burden concentrated in disadvantaged communities. Reported COVID-19 deaths greatly underestimated pandemic-associated mortality.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00746-5/fulltext

 

The death toll in India has been immense, and is probably much higher than official counts (see ‘COVID's true toll in India?’). Studies of excess mortality suggest that up to 4.9 million people could have died in India since the pandemic began1,2 — much higher than 425,000, the official number of recorded deaths due to COVID-19

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02146-w

 

[candide]

38 minutes ago, catturd said:

Yeah, ok I see that. So, maybe France and India have similar CFR's unless France has "underestimated" this metric as well.

 

But the funny part is this:

 "There is a growing sense that official counts of Covid-19 deaths are underestimated in South Asia, including India and do not reflect the actual scale of the pandemic, a latest World Bank report indicated on Thursday"

Where I come from that's unconvincing speculation and fails the prima facia test. If we assumed facts based on a "growing sense", 555,

No proof, hard evidence, etc exists and none was presented in your link.

Sure, all the data we see reported daily and globally is not easy to compute accurately at times and is often theoretical and based on algorithms churning away in the basement of the CDC as an example, but to expect "a growing sense" to fly is comic.

Unless the World Bank can correct the reporting errors and provide accurate data we have no alternative data sources despite our "growing senses" and I ask you to refute the Oxford data as presented in the metric I referred to and submit the accurate 7 day rolling average of deaths/milion for India, until you do we can "assume" you don't have any data and the death rates in my post stand as data for reference purposes here.

 

It's very easy to check. Compare the number of official covid deaths with the number of excess deaths all causes. In France it fits well. I did not check for India but for Thailand it"about three times the number of official covid deaths. Follow the link below. You need to change the country to Thailand to get the numbers for Thailand in number of raw deaths all causes. Then compare with the official number of covid deaths in Thailand.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Edited December 28, 2021 by candide

[catturd]

18 minutes ago, candide said:

I did not check for India

If you did, you won't find any.

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by catturd

[Virt]

5 hours ago, JomtienEats said:

I'm hopeful Omicron is the beginning of the end. There's just no containing it any more, and everyone, even the Chinese, will be forced to pursue herd immunity. It could be brutal, depending on the omicron hospitalization/fatality rate, but herd immunity might be only 2 months away.

It took approximately 3 weeks in Denmark for omicron to reach 75% + of the tests.

This chart has data up to Dec 21.

So we're probably in the 90s by now.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Heunicke/status/1475814566965788677/photo/1

[candide]

14 minutes ago, catturd said:

If you did, you won't find any.

 

In order to make such a statement, did you check yourself?

BKK Brian doesn't seem to think so, and he's usually quite reliable for providing facts.

Edited December 28, 2021 by candide

[CharlieH]

Reported troll post removed.

[Blumpie]

21 hours ago, JomtienEats said:

Last I heard, it had 50% of the hospitalization rate of Delta. If that's the case, it'll be quite a cf.

 

If it's no worse than the common cold, it'll be herd immunity, and that'll be great, we can get back to the old normal.

 

The unvaccinated it's much less.

Why does anyone care about the willfully unvaccinated?  They can just stay at home.  

[Meat Pie 47]

7 hours ago, placeholder said:

First off, Thailand has about 65% of its population vaccinated. 73% have had at least one vaccination. That may not be quite enough, but it's certainly better than some developed nations.

And whatever the truth of your statement about Thailand being dirty and unhygenic, covid is not transmitted by unclean surfaces or by consumption of food. It is transmitted via respiration.

And finally, at least where I live in Thailand, the wearing of masks in public spaces is virtually universally practiced.  How does that compare to practices in the hygienic paradises in the West.

Utter nonsense where I live we have 7 infections brought in by an unvaccinated backpacker and we have not worn a mask for years just the occasinal 1 week many months ago and now for 1 week

[JomtienEats]

29 minutes ago, Blumpie said:

The unvaccinated it's much less.

Why does anyone care about the willfully unvaccinated?  They can just stay at home.  

Many in asia are 'vaccinated', but with Sinovac, which is reportedly quite ineffective against Omicron. So even if you only care about the 'vaccinated', your sympathies might extend to the Sinovaxxed.

[MrJ2U]

22 hours ago, jak2002003 said:

What is the fuss about? We are told this new mutation is just as mild as the common cold, right?

 

 

"The WHO warned Tuesday that the Omicron coronavirus variant could lead to overwhelmed healthcare systems even though early studies suggest it leads to milder disease"

 

[Thailand News App] Thai PBS World: WHO warns of Omicron overload as China, Europe impose new curbs
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/who-warns-of-omicron-overload-as-china-europe-impose-new-curbs/

[candide]

1 hour ago, catturd said:

If you did, you won't find any.

 

 

1 hour ago, candide said:

In order to make such a statement, did you check yourself?

BKK Brian doesn't seem to think so, and he's usually quite reliable for providing facts.

So obviously you did not personally check it.

[DonniePeverley]

On 12/27/2021 at 2:58 PM, ikke1959 said:

They have predicted that it could go to 20k to 30k a day early 2022. If they know that already I am wondering why they don't cancel the celebrations and travelling..Should it be the same as Songkran? with all the restrictions that will follow...

 

So do you just keep cancelling everything every year? Because this isn't going to go away. 

[skorp13]

The CCSA is useless. Nothing more than a government news agency reporting the numbers the government tells them to report

[jacko45k]

On 12/28/2021 at 12:44 PM, vandeventer said:

Soon everyone will have Omicron, Merry Christmas!

What 2022?