Omicron: How the world’s fastest spreading virus could also end the pandemic

[webfact]

Photo from AFP

 

The Omicron variant has now spread across the globe, with new cases surging in countries including Thailand. As of Sunday (Jan 9), Worldometer.com registered 15.28 million new COVID-19 cases in the past week, a rise of 51 percent from the previous 7-day period.

 

Worldometer.com, which ranks among the most reliable compiler of global statistics, reported a spike in infections across the world, topped by the tiny Caribbean nation of Guadeloupe with a 332,000 percent rise.

 

Worryingly, new COVID-19 infections have also soared in countries with a relatively high rate of vaccination. Japan, Israel, Australia, Singapore and Thailand have seen their caseloads surge – by 508, 250, 223, 114 and 81 percent respectively. India, where most of the population is believed to have built up antibodies either through jabs or infection, saw its caseload rise by 524 percent.

 

History’s most infectious virus

 

Far more transmissible than previous variants, Omicron has risen to become the world’s second-most contagious virus – closely behind measles.

 

Omicron has an R number of 8 to 15, compared to 15-18 for measles, explains Prof Dr. Wasun Chanratita, director of Ramathibodi Hospital’s Centre for Medical Genomics. The R number refers to the average number of unvaccinated people infected by one case of a disease. The Delta variant, with an R number of 6.5-8, is far less transmissible than Omicron.

 

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Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/omicron-how-the-worlds-fastest-spreading-virus-could-also-end-the-pandemic/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2022-01-11

 

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[Scott]

What this variant lacks in lethality it makes up in disruption.  I am currently in the US and in the area where I am living, it is raising pure hell.  Hospitalizations are up and ICU beds are scarce, but I suspect this is largely due to Delta and those very sick people who linger in the ICU for a very long time.  

 

One of the big problems for hospitals is the lack of personnel.  Many have quit and now many are sick.  The US CDC has lowered the quarantine period to 5 days with protests from the American Medical Association, which proposes 7 days, minimum.  At least one state, Michigan, has decided to remain at 10 days. 

Supply Chain problems persist and will likely get worse for a time as people get sick.   Thousands of flights were canceled over the holidays because of staff shortages, mostly due to Covid.  

 

It's not too hard to get goods, but prices are high.  At the grocery store the other day, it looked like they were out of everything, including shopping carts.  I shop there all the time and know quite a few of employees.  One assured me, they had plenty of everything, but it was all in the back -- they were desperately short of people to stock shelves, run the cash register and those tending the carts in the parking lot were out sick.

I am not sure how this will shake down in Thailand because your labor supply is better than the US.  I know at least one school has had to close and go to online learning due to sick or exposed staff and students.  

 

With such a fast spread, it should be over relatively quickly, but it's going to leave a mess an economic mess to clean up.  Let's hope this is the beginning of the end.

[RichardColeman]

It will only end the pandemic in countries that open up and learn to live with it. Now you know its lethality (that a word?) you really need to open up and get on with life or you are just delaying a 'potential' natural vaccine for your county. Places like China with its insane zero covid policy are either going to explode with covid the minute they open or be locked up for the next 20 years - which wont make most people unhappy

Edited January 10, 2022 by RichardColeman

[daveAustin]

Busy in the UK also but many NHS staff off are milking it. Supermarkets are good. 
 

Don’t understand why they flag up those with high vax rates having high infection rates. Not to flog a dead horse but it’s pretty much common knowledge that being vaccinated doesn’t stop you catching it. This thing will keep whipping around and around but this is probably our best chance in getting one over on it. 

 

These places that are eager to shut up, while understandably anxious, typically have an agenda such as face or control and are really screwing their people up. 

[Scott]

41 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

It will only end the pandemic in countries that open up and learn to live with it. Now you know its lethality (that a word?) you really need to open up and get on with life or you are just delaying a 'potential' natural vaccine for your county. Places like China with its insane zero covid policy are either going to explode with covid the minute they open or be locked up for the next 20 years - which wont make most people unhappy

Well, where I live and in much of the US, it is open.  There are vaccines and masks are available.  Mandates are pretty limited and where I live there are none. 

 

It's not going smoothly, but nothing is being locked down, nothing is being shut -- bars, restaurants, gyms, movie theatres, public and private events are all open. 

 

There is no real discussion of closing anything, including schools.  It seems to be a wise move to have masks in schools, though, since where I am schools that require masks (legally they can't, but they have) have been able to remain fully open, so far.  Those with no requirement for masks haven't fared well, with major outbreaks, a teacher shortage that has caused them to quit.  

 

Omicron is likely to evade all but the best masks.

 

Living with it is going to require some mitigation strategies, at least in the near-term.  

[Capella]

7 minutes ago, Scott said:

Well, where I live and in much of the US, it is open.  There are vaccines and masks are available.  Mandates are pretty limited and where I live there are none. 

 

It's not going smoothly, but nothing is being locked down, nothing is being shut -- bars, restaurants, gyms, movie theatres, public and private events are all open. 

 

There is no real discussion of closing anything, including schools.  It seems to be a wise move to have masks in schools, though, since where I am schools that require masks (legally they can't, but they have) have been able to remain fully open, so far.  Those with no requirement for masks haven't fared well, with major outbreaks, a teacher shortage that has caused them to quit.  

 

Omicron is likely to evade all but the best masks.

 

Living with it is going to require some mitigation strategies, at least in the near-term.  

Most of what we read says that this will be short and sharp, and may well be Covid's last hurrah as a dangerous disease - Omicron is extremely transmissible but has a much shorter incubation period than previous strains. It's also a shorter and milder ilness - I was over it in the average 4 days, with symptoms no worse than a heavy cold. The good thing is that its transmissibility is displacing nastier strains, while giving people a mild illnesss and antiboidies that may offer protection against other strains.

 

The world seems to be coming to the conclusion that there really is no avoiding Omicron, and that the short term pain will need to be endured. Masks have been shown to have little effect against it as you say, and ongoing lockdowns haven't really worked either and have too many other costs.

 

Empty supermarket shelves here in Oz too. After two years of zero covid, it's spreading like wildfire but numbers are now falling from recent highs. Isolation periods have been reduced to 7 days, with talk of zero days for asymptomatic cases in essential work. Most people are vaccinated - around 90% in my area.

[rupert the bear]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

It will only end the pandemic in countries that open up and learn to live with it. Now you know its lethality (that a word?) you really need to open up and get on with life or you are just delaying a 'potential' natural vaccine for your county. Places like China with its insane zero covid policy are either going to explode with covid the minute they open or be locked up for the next 20 years - which wont make most people unhappy

i hope ur right about china.lets hope they go back to locking themselves away from the rest f us for several hundred yrs as they did in the past,the world will be a safer and better place for it and im not talking about just about covid....

[spidermike007]

The only thing to be concerned about with Omi is the number of deaths. And they are low, compared to delta. So, we are making progress and it appears the virus is burning itself out. 

 

Quoted from the article: The economic impact of restrictions, and records showing a relatively low hospitalization and fatality rate among Omicron patients – especially those who have been jabbed.

While the number of new COVID-19 cases soared by 51 percent in the week up to Jan 9, the number of deaths rose by just 1 percent, according to Worldometer.

 

I rest my case your honor. Stop the panic. Stop the fear mongering. Take a deep breath. This thing many be nearly over. 

Edited January 11, 2022 by spidermike007

[nausea]

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

the number of new COVID-19 cases soared by 51 percent in the week up to Jan 9, the number of deaths rose by just 1 percent, according to Worldometer.

I rest my case, M'lud.

[wombat]

Vaxxed or unvaxxed  youse is gunna git this one....3 days done and dusted

[talahtnut]

Fear not, there will be another convarient until everyone is jabbered,

or sees the light.

[Muhendis]

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

lethality

Ability to cause death and/or destruction.

Yup! It's a word.

[chilly07]

I think Cigna is spreading the virus by attaching itself to all articles mentioning Covid!

[placnx]

11 hours ago, Scott said:

One of the big problems for hospitals is the lack of personnel.  Many have quit and now many are sick.  The US CDC has lowered the quarantine period to 5 days with protests from the American Medical Association, which proposes 7 days, minimum.  At least one state, Michigan, has decided to remain at 10 days. 

A huge problem with the 5 day quarantine protocol is that rapid tests are very hard to find, so it seems that the next bad idea is letting people do without and go about wearing masks. The White House is using AU (artificial unintelligence) to formulate policy!

[AnotherFarang8]

Since the “pandemic” is 9/10 politics/religion and only 1/10 actual science, it will end when politicians decide they have reached their agendas. Not sooner. Don’t count on weaker variants or whatever, science had been abandoned long ago.

[VBF]

9 hours ago, talahtnut said:

Fear not, there will be another convarient until everyone is jabbered,

or sees the light.

Let me just fix that for you:

"Fear not, there will be another variant until everyone sees the light and gets "jabbered,""

 

That's better ????

[BangkokReady]

15 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Places like China with its insane zero covid policy are either going to explode with covid the minute they open or be locked up for the next 20 years - which wont make most people unhappy

Chances are that they would be opening and closing again repeatedly over a number of years while the rest of the world potentially gets back to normal through exposure.

 

Ridiculous.

 

Eventually (probably after they see numbers really start to drop in the Western world and the outcome is clear), they will announce proudly that their experts have researched and tested Omicron carefully and decided that the best course of action is to open up and let the variant spread, with caution, creating natural immunity.

[thaiman]

How many people are dying from Omicron?  Are there any websites that list these numbers?

[Scott]

7 hours ago, placnx said:

A huge problem with the 5 day quarantine protocol is that rapid tests are very hard to find, so it seems that the next bad idea is letting people do without and go about wearing masks. The White House is using AU (artificial unintelligence) to formulate policy!

One of the problems with tests is that some of them identify viral material which may be present for a long time after the infection is over.  

 

California has now required no quarantine for health care workers who test positive but are asymptomatic.  The Nurses Association is against this, but apparently the staffing situation in hospitals is critical enough to warrant it.  

[robblok]

Its good news but if more people get infected you still need a lockdown to prevent overflowing hospitals. Because less lethal but many times more contagious still leads in more hospital beds occupied.

 

As long as they can keep that under control then later things can open up. This might be real good but there is still need for caution. Overflowing hospitals like in the UK and  Netherlands could be a problem. (and yes in the Uk its because less people can work but its still a problem).

 

Anyway as long as that stays under control this might be good. But if vaccines did not give the protection why would this give protection. Would a new variant not reinfect us like this one does ? I think its a bit too early to cheer.

[Scott]

21 minutes ago, robblok said:

Its good news but if more people get infected you still need a lockdown to prevent overflowing hospitals. Because less lethal but many times more contagious still leads in more hospital beds occupied.

 

As long as they can keep that under control then later things can open up. This might be real good but there is still need for caution. Overflowing hospitals like in the UK and  Netherlands could be a problem. (and yes in the Uk its because less people can work but its still a problem).

 

Anyway as long as that stays under control this might be good. But if vaccines did not give the protection why would this give protection. Would a new variant not reinfect us like this one does ? I think its a bit too early to cheer.

Lockdowns are probably not the best option to deal with Omicron.  They could work, but they would have to be severe lockdowns and it's very unlikely that people would be cooperative with what is being touted as a milder version.  The only disease more transmissible than Omicron is measles and I don't recall ever reading of any lockdowns for measles (and yes, it's a different disease and a different demographic affected).

Ultimately, vaccines are the best bet and any drastic action should surround getting the most people vaccinated as possible.  Even with breakthrough cases being higher with Omicron, enough are protected  to gradually grind it to a halt.  

 

Masks are also essential.  Either a high quality mask needs to be worn and if not available, then seriously limit your amount of time indoors with others and carefully maintain social distancing.  Getting infected is still a matter of not just exposure, but exposure over a period of time.  

 

But to address your concern about hospitals, you have brought up an extremely important point, not just for Covid patients but for everyone else that needs to use a hospital.

 

[Stargeezr]

While this omicron variant of COVID is less lethal than the original virus or delta variant, in the USA, Canada, 

Europe, Russia and other countries, the number of COVID cases are spiking and hospitals are getting full

once again. This pandemic has been around 2 years, and now even the health workers, police, fire, and almost all other

businesses are all getting sick and unable to come to work. It is a good thing that likely not as many people will die

from the latest variant, but with even children getting sick from omicron, and bringing it home to mom, dad, and in some cases

grandma and grandpa, the situation is not really improving is it.  Many places are having problems with their goods

getting moved around as a lot of truck drivers and warehouse and factory workers are also getting sick and many

stores are having troubles getting their products delivered to them.  This is something that all should be aware of

as the future may not be as bright and cheery as some are predicting.

[placnx]

14 hours ago, Scott said:

One of the problems with tests is that some of them identify viral material which may be present for a long time after the infection is over.  

 

California has now required no quarantine for health care workers who test positive but are asymptomatic.  The Nurses Association is against this, but apparently the staffing situation in hospitals is critical enough to warrant it.  

The problem is that rapid tests are out of stock in many places in the US. Michael Mina was evangelizing the importance of rapid tests soon after the pandemic started, but the FDA dragged their feet on approving these tests. Here's an explainer:

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/26/health/at-home-covid-tests-khn-partner/index.html

Rapid tests would have been the way to keep schools open and still avoid spreading Omicron too much, also to keep staffing levels up in hospitals, on airlines, etc.