I just bought $200,000 of Bitcoin

[Sparktrader]

7 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Yes you are correct.  Currency trading is based on one person paying more than another.  However the currencies such as the USD, Euro, and Yuan are backed by the sovereign governments.  Also they are influenced not exclusively by the "greater fool"  Changes in the country's rate of inflation, its interest rates, public debt, political stability, economic health, balance of trade and trade deficits all impact the currency value. 

Using your logic, I could open up an app, have a balance in pixels, and somehow theoretically pixels would be the same as the USD.  That is essentially what bitcoin did.  It created the perception of currency when it did not exist, and was not backed by any sovereign nation. 

Bitcoin is not influence by any of the traditional factors impacting world currencies.  Its value is strictly based on the "perception" that it has value.  A person buying bitcoin can ony make money if "a greater fool" is willing to pay more for it.   One thing is for sure, irrespective of investment.  Trees don't grow to the stars.  At some point the speculative bubble wll burst and the prices fall.  When that occurs prices plummet far far faster than they rose.  

Certainly some will make profits from trading in bitcoin.  However it is every bit as speculative as going to Vegas and putting money or Red vs. Black.  

6 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Yes you are correct.  Currency trading is based on one person paying more than another.  However the currencies such as the USD, Euro, and Yuan are backed by the sovereign governments.  Also they are influenced not exclusively by the "greater fool"  Changes in the country's rate of inflation, its interest rates, public debt, political stability, economic health, balance of trade and trade deficits all impact the currency value. 

Using your logic, I could open up an app, have a balance in pixels, and somehow theoretically pixels would be the same as the USD.  That is essentially what bitcoin did.  It created the perception of currency when it did not exist, and was not backed by any sovereign nation. 

Bitcoin is not influence by any of the traditional factors impacting world currencies.  Its value is strictly based on the "perception" that it has value.  A person buying bitcoin can ony make money if "a greater fool" is willing to pay more for it.   One thing is for sure, irrespective of investment.  Trees don't grow to the stars.  At some point the speculative bubble wll burst and the prices fall.  When that occurs prices plummet far far faster than they rose.  

Certainly some will make profits from trading in bitcoin.  However it is every bit as speculative as going to Vegas and putting money or Red vs. Black.  

Nothing like red or black. Roulette bet is over in 30 seconds. Win or lose. Bitcoin 13 years old. 

 

You can hold for years. You can buy n sell in 1 minute. Digital gold it is.

[Sparktrader]

U.S. PayPal customers can not only buy and sell crypto, they can also use it to pay. As long as you've got enough cryptocurrency in your wallet, you can select Checkout with Crypto and pay with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin (LTC), or Bitcoin Cash (BCH). This means crypto payments are available at any of the 30 million merchants that accept PayPal.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

23 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Trees don't grow to the stars.  At some point the speculative bubble wll burst and the prices fall

The prices have fallen 30% plus many times.

 

Why dont you have a look at the chart. Goes back to 2009. Bull/bear/bull/bear same as a stock or currency.

 

Shops dont accept roulette chips. Many accept bitcoin.

[fdsa]

23 hours ago, fdsa said:

 

I think this drop is a short term and the exchange rate will grow up again soon, once Russian wealthy people start to dump Roubles and/or flee Russia to preserve their wealth.

here we go

 

Edited February 25, 2022 by fdsa

[Sparktrader]

https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-s-how-thai-stock-exchange-plans-to-connect-crypto-with-its-digital-asset-platform

[Longwood50]

4 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Atoms have no value

What the heck are you talking about. 

Value is always a perception.  However some items are "tangible"  A house, car, clothing, gold, wheat, a company, machinery, equipment. 

Bitcoin is an "intangible"  It exists only in peoples minds.  It is not backed by any sovereign nation.   Now some intangibles have value.  I may have a patent, or trademark, an option to buy property or stock.   Goodwill in a business is an "intangible"  A buyer may pay more for a business that has a good reputation and long standing customer base than one with identical hard assets but a poor reputation and a short history in business. 

As I said, some people may make money trading bitcoin.  Perhaps it might even be long lasting.  However I believe that any person who invests soley on the premise that "it may rise in value" because some other fool is willing to pay more for it, is not "investing" they are speculating.  

Companies like Apple "make products" and services.  They also rise on "speculation" of future profits.  Bitcoin has no profits.  It goes up or down strictly based on the speculation that it will go up, or down.  I might make money going to Las Vegas and betting on black versus red but that doesn't mean it is an investment.   At some point traders in Bitcoin will sense that the last fool is in, and they will rush to sell.  The trip down will be far faster than the trip up. 

[Sparktrader]

Just now, Longwood50 said:

What the heck are you talking about. 

Value is always a perception.  However some items are "tangible"  A house, car, clothing, gold, wheat, a company, machinery, equipment. 

Bitcoin is an "intangible"  It exists only in peoples minds.  It is not backed by any sovereign nation.   Now some intangibles have value.  I may have a patent, or trademark, an option to buy property or stock.   Goodwill in a business is an "intangible"  A buyer may pay more for a business that has a good reputation and long standing customer base than one with identical hard assets but a poor reputation and a short history in business. 

As I said, some people may make money trading bitcoin.  Perhaps it might even be long lasting.  However I believe that any person who invests soley on the premise that "it may rise in value" because some other fool is willing to pay more for it, is not "investing" they are speculating.  

Companies like Apple "make products" and services.  They also rise on "speculation" of future profits.  Bitcoin has no profits.  It goes up or down strictly based on the speculation that it will go up, or down.  I might make money going to Las Vegas and betting on black versus red but that doesn't mean it is an investment.   At some point traders in Bitcoin will sense that the last fool is in, and they will rush to sell.  The trip down will be far faster than the trip up. 

Bitcoin has goodwill. Lots of it. Nobody would buy it otherwise. More goodwill than any other coin. Cars depreciate to 1% over 15 years.

 

Unless 100% of countries ban it the value is always there. Who knows the real value. I trade charts. It works. Coins or shares doesnt matter same patterns. Higher lows, volume etc.

 

Personally i think facebook is rubbish but many value it. I would trade the chart in that case too.

[Longwood50]

5 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

Nothing like red or black. Roulette bet is over in 30 seconds. Win or lose. Bitcoin 13 years old. 

It is exactly like red or black.  It is pure speculation.  Your example is flawed because just like Black and Red is over immediately the price of Bitcoin fluctuates each trade.  

Again, you may make money doing it.  I could equally make money buying cattle futures believing that the price of beef will go up.  However at least with the cattle, I am buying something "tangible" that reacts to supply and demand, as well as perception. 

Bitcoin is pure perception.  It is going up for only one reason because people like you see it going up.  Not because it has performed doing anything to make its value increase.  That is a stark contrast to a company who improves its profits and therefore is more valuable to the investor. 

Just remember trees to not grow to the stars and eventually those investments based purely on the greater fool theory will fall. 

 

[The Hammer2021]

7 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

What the heck are you talking about. 

Value is always a perception.  However some items are "tangible"  A house, car, clothing, gold, wheat, a company, machinery, equipment. 

Bitcoin is an "intangible"  It exists only in peoples minds.  It is not backed by any sovereign nation.   Now some intangibles have value.  I may have a patent, or trademark, an option to buy property or stock.   Goodwill in a business is an "intangible"  A buyer may pay more for a business that has a good reputation and long standing customer base than one with identical hard assets but a poor reputation and a short history in business. 

As I said, some people may make money trading bitcoin.  Perhaps it might even be long lasting.  However I believe that any person who invests soley on the premise that "it may rise in value" because some other fool is willing to pay more for it, is not "investing" they are speculating.  

Companies like Apple "make products" and services.  They also rise on "speculation" of future profits.  Bitcoin has no profits.  It goes up or down strictly based on the speculation that it will go up, or down.  I might make money going to Las Vegas and betting on black versus red but that doesn't mean it is an investment.   At some point traders in Bitcoin will sense that the last fool is in, and they will rush to sell.  The trip down will be far faster than the trip up. 

What you describe in your last paragraph is a classic pyramid scheme.

[Sparktrader]

In some ways btc is a collectors item as well. Even if 100% of countries ban it (they wont) still has value. 

 

I know people who bought houses with btc.

[Sparktrader]

2 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

It is exactly like red or black.  It is pure speculation.  Your example is flawed because just like Black and Red is over immediately the price of Bitcoin fluctuates each trade.  

Again, you may make money doing it.  I could equally make money buying cattle futures believing that the price of beef will go up.  However at least with the cattle, I am buying something "tangible" that reacts to supply and demand, as well as perception. 

Bitcoin is pure perception.  It is going up for only one reason because people like you see it going up.  Not because it has performed doing anything to make its value increase.  That is a stark contrast to a company who improves its profits and therefore is more valuable to the investor. 

Just remember trees to not grow to the stars and eventually those investments based purely on the greater fool theory will fall. 

 

Wrong. You lose 100% on red or black or get double.

 

Btc goes up or down maybe 1% per hour on average.

 

No comparison to gambling.

[Sparktrader]

3 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

What you describe in your last paragraph is a classic pyramid scheme.

Pyramid schemes pay dividends to holders. Btc has no dividends. It goes up or down like the $us

[Sparktrader]

Btc is currency. More useful than Kip or Cambodia money.

[Sparktrader]

St trader

 

Buy bhp $45 sell $48. You bought and sold due to signals you use. Moving avgs or what you use.

 

Buy btc 35,000 sell 37,000. You bought and sold due to signals.

 

Buy baht 28 sell 31 baht. You bought and sold due to signals.

 

This is trading. Not gambling. Gambling is 100% luck. Trading is 70% skill 30% luck.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

14 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

Just remember trees to not grow to the stars and eventually those investments based purely on the greater fool theory will fall. 

3 to 6 month trends are common. Buying after a bull run is foolish yes. Fools bought Tesla at the top. Charts tell you the trend. If way above the 20 day sma its overbought. Sooner or later they fall back to 20. Below the 20 means a potential bear market. The 20 is a very common trading avg. Many large traders use it.

[Longwood50]

2 minutes ago, The Hammer2021 said:

What you describe in your last paragraph is a classic pyramid scheme.

Well not really.  A ponzi or pyramid scheme entices new investors to pay off old ones.  Bitcoin does not require new buyers to enter the market to pay off old ones.  

It is a classic example of really what occured during the dot.com era.  Dot.com companies never earned a penny and many were merely "ideas".  " The value of a company is determined by its "anticipated" future earnings.  So investors buy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, at a price they believe is fair for what their anticipated future earnings will be.   If the company is successful, and earnings increase the value of the stock rises because the company is earning money.  

Bitcoin earns nothing.  It is really nothing more than a figment of someone's creation that they very masterfully have created from nothing and have people buying it despite the fact it hatched from nothing and has nothing tangible about it. 

However to "make money" in Bitcoin the only way possible is for a person to buy it and sell it to another person at more money.  Bitcoin can do nothing in the way of improving its earnings to enhance its value.  It is strictly what occured in the dot.com era where companies not making a penny sold each day for more than the previous day not based on any fundamentals but strictly on the premise that there would always be another greater fool willing to pay more. 

Can bitcoin go on?  Who knows.  I only know that it is pure specualtion.  

Here is what Warren Buffet who many consider the most renowned investor or all time said about cryptocurrencies. 

Warren Buffett has made his opinion on crypto crystal clear over the years. The billionaire investor says he doesn't own any and he never will. He claims Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies have basically no value, and all you can do with them is sell them to somebody else.Jan 27, 2565 BE

[Longwood50]

14 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

No comparison to gambling.

The only thing different is the percentage of gain/loss and the timeframe. 

[Sparktrader]

Tesla 

Red line 20 sma

 

Clear sell entry

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Longwood50 said:

Well not really.  A ponzi or pyramid scheme entices new investors to pay off old ones.  Bitcoin does not require new buyers to enter the market to pay off old ones.  

It is a classic example of really what occured during the dot.com era.  Dot.com companies never earned a penny and many were merely "ideas".  " The value of a company is determined by its "anticipated" future earnings.  So investors buy Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, at a price they believe is fair for what their anticipated future earnings will be.   If the company is successful, and earnings increase the value of the stock rises because the company is earning money.  

Bitcoin earns nothing.  It is really nothing more than a figment of someone's creation that they very masterfully have created from nothing and have people buying it despite the fact it hatched from nothing and has nothing tangible about it. 

However to "make money" in Bitcoin the only way possible is for a person to buy it and sell it to another person at more money.  Bitcoin can do nothing in the way of improving its earnings to enhance its value.  It is strictly what occured in the dot.com era where companies not making a penny sold each day for more than the previous day not based on any fundamentals but strictly on the premise that there would always be another greater fool willing to pay more. 

Can bitcoin go on?  Who knows.  I only know that it is pure specualtion.  

Here is what Warren Buffet who many consider the most renowned investor or all time said about cryptocurrencies. 

Warren Buffett has made his opinion on crypto crystal clear over the years. The billionaire investor says he doesn't own any and he never will. He claims Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies have basically no value, and all you can do with them is sell them to somebody else.Jan 27, 2565 BE

Dot.com were shares. Btc is currency. El Salvador has it as standard.

 

It has value its currency. I know a gold shop that sells gold and you pay with btc or cash.

 

Buffet never bought amazon or facebook or google. He is 95yo. No clue about crypto. Musk is a big crypto fan. Twice as rich as Buffet.

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, Longwood50 said:

The only thing different is the percentage of gain/loss and the timeframe. 

Nope. Gambling is 100% luck unless sports ie stats edge. Roulette is chance. Trading is 70% skill.

 

Buying a house is much the same as btc. You estimate future value. Research etc. Avg home growth 8% project forward.

 

Btc use linear regression. Avg growth 10% say project forward.

 

Or follow the trend. Buy 20 sma upward cross. Sell 20 sma fall. Trend following system.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

20 sma works well btc

[Sparktrader]

Long 45,000 sell 63,000

Long 45,000 sell same

Await next move

 

Basic system.

 

Add a few tools boost the system. Not gambling at all. 100 year old trading. 

[Sparktrader]

[Sparktrader]

Long 37,900 sell 36,600 loss

Long 38,000 sell 42,200 profit

Await next move

 

8 sma

 

2900 in front

 

Easy trades really.

 

If next move is big you will get 10,000+

[Sparktrader]

1 day chart yesterday nice trade

[Sparktrader]

Linear regression long term

[Sparktrader]

Under 46,000 cheap long term trend

Over 56,000 expensive lt trend

Under 35,500 very cheap (graph zoomed in too much)

 

Just statistics based on lt trend. Know this you have an edge over 95% of buyers who guess.

 

So put it together

 

Cheap under 35,500 1 tick

Moving average crossover 1 tick

Indicator bullish 1 tick

 

3 ticks said buy. None said sell. 70% likely to be right.

 

No gambling here. 

[Hamus Yaigh]

27 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Long 45,000 sell 63,000

Long 45,000 sell same

Eh? Price is only 38,000?

[Sparktrader]

Last bull market

See chart

[Sparktrader]

Follow the trend

Dont guess

The 8 and 20 ma tell you the trend