On 9/30/2022 at 9:53 PM, Black Ops said:

 

1. Russia can now justify using tactical nuclear weapons in the  annexed regions. 

They drop not just 1, but 2, 3 or more 1 kT bombs, evaporating Kraken and the fighting force of the Ukrainian army.

The 300,000 strong Russian mobilization secure the borders to the annexed provinces and the war is essentially over.

 

Now to the scary part. This will pave the way for China to use their nuclear hypersonic carrier killer missiles inside the 9 dash line. The US decide not to play kamikaze carrier with the CCP and the PLA takes Taiwain to please master Xi.

 

Then what, WWIII or another long cold war?

16 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

1. Russia can now justify using tactical nuclear weapons in the  annexed regions. 

They drop not just 1, but 2, 3 or more 1 kT bombs, evaporating Kraken and the fighting force of the Ukrainian army.

The 300,000 strong Russian mobilization secure the borders to the annexed provinces and the war is essentially over.

 

Now to the scary part. This will pave the way for China to use their nuclear hypersonic carrier killer missiles inside the 9 dash line. The US decide not to play kamikaze carrier with the CCP and the PLA takes Taiwain to please master Xi.

 

Then what, WWIII or another long cold war?

Thank you, visitor from the future.

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

1. Russia can now justify using tactical nuclear weapons in the  annexed regions. 

They drop not just 1, but 2, 3 or more 1 kT bombs, evaporating Kraken and the fighting force of the Ukrainian army.

The 300,000 strong Russian mobilization secure the borders to the annexed provinces and the war is essentially over.

 

Now to the scary part. This will pave the way for China to use their nuclear hypersonic carrier killer missiles inside the 9 dash line. The US decide not to play kamikaze carrier with the CCP and the PLA takes Taiwain to please master Xi.

 

Then what, WWIII or another long cold war?

Russian threat of using nukes. Part of their strategy to whip up a frenzy of pending doom on Ukraine to cover up their failures. Create fear and doubt, while all the time blaming the west. It never worked the first time and they know it so now they've tried again. This time with a tamer version of tactical nukes. While at the same time claiming Russia is a victim of nuclear blackmail from the west.

 

"the propagandists’ public musings about nuclear security should be considered calmly and with a level head. Part of their intent is to whip up a frenzy and create the impression that the Kremlin and its master are unpredictable and if pushed into a corner, they will be forced to deliver the ultimate strike."

 

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/the-dangerous-case-of-nuclear-corners/

The next month will be interesting as to how much ground Ukraine can get back.

I think it will return to world food security before anything nuclear.

November is when the grain exports from Odessa comes up for renewal.

The Polish farmers were not happy prior to Odessa starting up again.

https://www.dw.com/en/grains-of-truth-polish-farmers-irate-over-ukrainian-imports/a-62629948

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, farmerjo said:

The next month will be interesting as to how much ground Ukraine can get back.

I think it will return to world food security before anything nuclear.

November is when the grain exports from Odessa comes up for renewal.

The Polish farmers were not happy prior to Odessa starting up again.

https://www.dw.com/en/grains-of-truth-polish-farmers-irate-over-ukrainian-imports/a-62629948

 

A pity Russia started all this chaos and caused such a mess. Implementing decisions on grain corridors was never going to be perfect or a long term solution but is the best that can be done for now.

 

 

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO the US will never allow it's veto power in the UN to be lost to a majority vote, given it's support for a certain country.

Anyway, who says a majority of countries in the UN would support the EU/ US in Ukraine if it came to that?

let them vote and we will see, maybe you will be surprised, care to explain why the US will not allow it's veto power to be lost, what country are you talking about

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I do have a sense of humour, just not when it's possible Europe and Russia might be reduced to cinders, by some politicians doing something just like what you said.

you and I know the EU and/or the US never annex any piece of land belonging to another country, again a speculative joke

 

1 minute ago, BarraMarra said:

 

And the Russians have the front to mention Nazi's.....????

15 hours ago, tgw said:

sad news if true.

maybe it's just "feel good" news from Ruzzia for its own audience.

let's wait to see how many Ruzzians were actually encircled.

All can be simply explained to a simple audience ????

  

4 minutes ago, sammieuk1 said:

All can be simply explained to a simple audience ????

  

S,000 Russian Troops were encircled in Lynum they simply ran away leaving the Ukrainian army to Raise their flag on the main civic building.

54 minutes ago, BarraMarra said:

S,000 Russian Troops were encircled in Lynum they simply ran away leaving the Ukrainian army to Raise their flag on the main civic building.

Didn't Putin forbid them to leave their posts?

1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

let them vote and we will see, maybe you will be surprised, care to explain why the US will not allow it's veto power to be lost, what country are you talking about

I'm not going to name the country given it would lead to off topic bickering, but surely you know which county is preserved by the US veto?

Never stop with their provocations

 

UN Nuclear Watchdog Calls For Release Of Detained Ukrainian Plant Director

The United Nations' nuclear watchdog has called for the release of the director of Ukraine's largest nuclear power plant, who was reportedly abducted by a Russian military patrol.

The call late on October 1 by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director-General Rafael Grossi came one day after Ihor Murashov was detained while travelling between the Zaporizhzhya plant and the town of Enerhodar.

Murashov "was taken out of the car, and with his eyes blindfolded, he was driven in an unknown direction," Enerhoatom, the Ukrainian state company that oversees the plant, said on Facebook.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zaporizhzhya-iaea-return-murashov/32061530.html

"In an article published on Sunday in a major Russian newspaper, Komsomolskaya Pravda, a prominent war correspondent traveling with fleeing Russian forces described demoralized troops with “empty eyes” who barely escaped Lyman with their lives.

In an unusually candid assessment, the account, written by Aleksandr Kots, said that in the last few days of their occupation, Russian forces in Lyman were plagued by desertion, poor planning and the late arrival of reserves.

“The risk of encirclement or shameful imprisonment became too great, and the Russian command made a decision to fall back,” he wrote."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/02/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

5 hours ago, bannork said:

Didn't Putin forbid them to leave their posts?

They took their posts with them.

6 minutes ago, ballpoint said:

They took their posts with them.

If I decide to leave aseannow.com, can I take my posts with me?

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

If I decide to leave aseannow.com, can I take my posts with me?

Only if their threads are loose.

Ramzan Kadyrov says Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapon in Ukraine. He also criticized the Russian generals and the decision to withdraw from Lyman. This from the man whose army got their @sses handed to them when they tried to take part in the war in Ukraine.

 

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/putin-ally-kadyrov-calls-for-using-low-yield-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine-122100200051_1.html

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

If I decide to leave aseannow.com, can I take my posts with me?

You would be noticed going awol after two years.

dementia maybe it's knocking at the door

Vladimir Putin is making rash and secretive decisions in face of defeats, Kremlin insiders warn

https://au.yahoo.com/news/vladimir-putin-making-rash-secretive-162116822.html

 

Sour grapes?  The Russians are sending out Iranian supplied suicide drones, including at least one targeting Zelensky's home town, where it hit a school. 

 

"In southern Ukraine, Zelensky's hometown of Krivyi Rih came under Russian attack by a suicide drone that destroyed two stories of a school early Sunday (Kyiv time), the regional governor said. The Ukrainian air force said it shot down five Iranian-made drones, while two others made it through air defences".

 

Russian suicide drone attacks school in Zelensky's hometown (1news.co.nz)

Well worth a read, Putin is being undermined by his own officials, Kremlin sponsored media & Russian milbloggers.

 

Latest update from ISW

 

Main points in the 14 post twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576785121948360706

 

Full assessment here:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2

 

The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the #Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control.

 

Putin relies on controlling the information space in #Russia to safeguard his regime much more than on the kind of massive oppression apparatus the Soviet Union used, making disorder in the information space potentially even more dangerous to Putin than it was to the Soviets.

 

Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision

Tonight on Russian state TV: the mood is grim, look at their faces. Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee, admits that Russia desperately needs "to stop and regroup" and is experiencing all sorts of shortages, compared to Ukraine that has it all —and then some.

 

 

13 hours ago, farmerjo said:

You would be noticed going awol after two years.

I'd like to think that there would be celebrations about my departure sooner than that.

13 hours ago, farmerjo said:

You would be noticed going awol after two years.

I can think of far better posters who should go awol based on previous posts 

4 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Tonight on Russian state TV: the mood is grim, look at their faces. Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee, admits that Russia desperately needs "to stop and regroup" and is experiencing all sorts of shortages, compared to Ukraine that has it all —and then some.

 

 

If only they could arrange a cease fire and some peace negotiations, so that they could build up their forces while sitting around a table arguing from a position of weakness, before suddenly attacking again.  Surely there is at least one stooge in the West who would support this and offer to mediate it?

 

"Trump is offering to 'head up' a group to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine"

 

Trump Offers to Lead Group to Mediate Peace With Russia (businessinsider.com)

On a more serious note: this map shows very nicely the progress that the Ukrainian army has been making.

 

 

1 hour ago, ballpoint said:

If only they could arrange a cease fire and some peace negotiations, so that they could build up their forces while sitting around a table arguing from a position of weakness, before suddenly attacking again.  Surely there is at least one stooge in the West who would support this and offer to mediate it?

 

"Trump is offering to 'head up' a group to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine"

 

Trump Offers to Lead Group to Mediate Peace With Russia (businessinsider.com)

The venue would be NK with Kim Jong un as go between?