Banks downgraded as the Thai economy faces a liquidity crisis caused by war and tourism barriers

[morrobay]

17 hours ago, JimmyJ said:

Can someone give a (serious) example of how this THB manipulation is achieved successfully for years.

 

18 hours ago, WEBBYB808 said:

Bs.. its been right where t is for years.  Manipulated and strong

Can you answer @JimmyJ

[SmartyMarty]

12 hours ago, itsari said:

Please inform us of the countries that rely on tourism are thriving .

The Thai government can not be blamed for how the world situation is .

Covid , Russian attack on the Ukraine resulting in higher energy prices  are situations the Thai government can not be blamed for .

 

 

New Zealand (tourism accounts for 19% but NZ currently has zero tourists but highest GDP in 20 years) and Australia are 2 shining examples. There are several others in the northern hemisphere. Is that good enough for you?

[itsari]

33 minutes ago, SmartyMarty said:

New Zealand (tourism accounts for 19% but NZ currently has zero tourists but highest GDP in 20 years) and Australia are 2 shining examples. There are several others in the northern hemisphere. Is that good enough for you?

Your sarcasm is a little too much to take with the remark is that good enough for you .

New Zealand and Australia  have never been  dependent on tourism for there income . Australia has two major earning avenues . Exporting minerals and Agriculture . New zealand , Agriculture 

Both countries are small players apart from there rugby teams.

 

[Excel]

3 minutes ago, itsari said:

Your sarcasm is a little too much to take with the remark is that good enough for you .

New Zealand and Australia  have never been  dependent on tourism for there income . Australia has two major earning avenues . Exporting minerals and Agriculture . New zealand , Agriculture 

Both countries are small players apart from there rugby teams.

 

Excuse me !!!   Surely you mean their cricket teams also ? ????

[itsari]

5 hours ago, mbenson said:

But they can be blamed for creating and perpetuating a confusing and restrictive entry policy while they are experiencing an acute need for foreign currencies.

Yes they can be blamed for shooting them selves in the foot on making it difficult to enter the country .

One does have to consider there is a election coming up soon . That could have a bearing on the reason behind there entry rules .

[itsari]

2 minutes ago, Excel said:

Excuse me !!!   Surely you mean their cricket teams also ? ????

OK , I officially acknowledge my mistake . But they do like to tamper with the ball dont forget .

[Excel]

7 minutes ago, itsari said:

OK , I officially acknowledge my mistake . But they do like to tamper with the ball dont forget .

I wish England had done so, they might have won more games ????

[murraynz]

15 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

I think part of the reason Russians aren’t coming—guilt, and the feeling they may not get a warm welcome in Thailand and RoW.  Sure Ukraine is not their fault per se, but for 22 years they’ve watched Vlad doing his thing—while they sat passively by.

I doubt if Russians have much guilt. 

Most have no decency at all

[murraynz]

17 hours ago, Madgee said:

A few minutes ago:

Hope it helps!

Yes, correct.. The net rate from wise, is always higher than the banks.. 

[Cake Monster]

15 hours ago, itsari said:

Turning into debt ??? 

That is nothing new .

What is new is the borrowers on a grand scale are unable to pay there loans .

The loans are not declared bad as then the lender would have to place the money lost into reserves 

 

I think that many Loans that are bad are declared as " Special Mention Debt ", meaning the Loans are under a management scheme by the lender to try and prevent them turning completely delinquent, and therefore NPL.

[SmartyMarty]

1 hour ago, itsari said:

Your sarcasm is a little too much to take with the remark is that good enough for you .

New Zealand and Australia  have never been  dependent on tourism for there income . Australia has two major earning avenues . Exporting minerals and Agriculture . New zealand , Agriculture 

Both countries are small players apart from there rugby teams.

 

Wrong. Tourism significant and valuable part of both economies. Changing the narrative by ignoring the facts doesn't help your pov, just exposes your weakness of argument. The reason Thailand is failing is because this govt failed the people in the time of covid. 

[itsari]

1 hour ago, SmartyMarty said:

Wrong. Tourism significant and valuable part of both economies. Changing the narrative by ignoring the facts doesn't help your pov, just exposes your weakness of argument. The reason Thailand is failing is because this govt failed the people in the time of covid. 

Some individuals just take joy in laying blame on the Thai Government .

I for one am pleased I was in Thailand during the covid pandemic .

Valuable is a lot different than depend concerning tourism income . 

Tourism at the end of the day produces a lot of poorly paid employees but the tourists  spend there foreign currency and Thailand has gained from that up until covid .

[thaibook]

On 3/25/2022 at 1:33 PM, timendres said:

Tell that to the US citizens being told inflation is running above 7%, but seeing inflation north of 12% in real prices.

It does not mean there is no inflation, simply that printing money itself does not cause it.  There are always buyers of US debt.  Other factors cause inflation too.

[jacko45k]

22 hours ago, SmartyMarty said:

New Zealand (tourism accounts for 19% but NZ currently has zero tourists but highest GDP in 20 years) and Australia are 2 shining examples. There are several others in the northern hemisphere. Is that good enough for you?

So they do not rely on tourism!

[RafPinto]

On 3/25/2022 at 7:28 PM, itsari said:

Turning into debt ??? 

That is nothing new .

What is new is the borrowers on a grand scale are unable to pay there loans .

The loans are not declared bad as then the lender would have to place the money lost into reserves 

 

They never use the word "negative equity".

Keep the property prices high on paper.

If prices would fall (what they should), banks have to call for a cash injection because the 90% loan would stand at 100 or more but it's not going to happen as this would bring big troubles to the banks.
And, see around you. Hundreds of new condo blocks being build. Who is buying them?

And, A Nut In is a builder, he doesn't want this market to be affected.

[RafPinto]

On 3/25/2022 at 8:20 PM, Excel said:

Nah, they are more likely to demand that 800,000 is deposited permanently without the right to withdraw one single baht until you leave the country for good

500,000 people on retirement visa at 800k each.
A nice little balance sheet make-up.

[RafPinto]

On 3/25/2022 at 10:16 PM, kentrot said:

TOURISM is about 12% of the GDP of Thailand.

PLEASE stop making it sound like it is more ! 

Closer to 30%

[RafPinto]

22 hours ago, Cake Monster said:

I think that many Loans that are bad are declared as " Special Mention Debt ", meaning the Loans are under a management scheme by the lender to try and prevent them turning completely delinquent, and therefore NPL.

Special massage debt.
Want to make you happy.

[lapamita]

16 hours ago, thaibook said:

It does not mean there is no inflation, simply that printing money itself does not cause it.  There are always buyers of US debt.  Other factors cause inflation too.

if printing money in line with GDP growth , thats true ..but extending M3 in a matter never seen before at record low real intrest rates , is nearly the only thing why inflation increase , for this time.

its the result of aprox 14 years of wrong doing of centralbanks in the western world, started with the finincial crisis 2008 

Edited March 27, 2022 by lapamita

[Lacessit]

On 3/26/2022 at 8:42 AM, itsari said:

Your sarcasm is a little too much to take with the remark is that good enough for you .

New Zealand and Australia  have never been  dependent on tourism for there income . Australia has two major earning avenues . Exporting minerals and Agriculture . New zealand , Agriculture 

Both countries are small players apart from there rugby teams.

 

Australia gets quite a boost to its economy from overseas students, mostly from Asian countries, who go there for tertiary qualifications that are more valued than the ones they get in their home countries. Of course, that has taken a kick in the family jewels during COVID.

Small players? Australia punches well above its weight in medical science and technology, have you never heard of CSL Limited and Atlassian?

[kentrot]

3 hours ago, RafPinto said:

Closer to 30%

  On 3/25/2022 at 10:16 PM, kentrot said:

TOURISM is about 12% of the GDP of Thailand.

PLEASE stop making it sound like it is more

***************************

I'll trust WIKIPEDIA when it says 9% to 17%! .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

Rafpinto - where did you come up with 30% ?

****************************************************

Closer to 30%

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, kentrot said:

  On 3/25/2022 at 10:16 PM, kentrot said:

TOURISM is about 12% of the GDP of Thailand.

PLEASE stop making it sound like it is more

***************************

I'll trust WIKIPEDIA when it says 9% to 17%! .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism_in_Thailand

Rafpinto - where did you come up with 30% ?

****************************************************

Closer to 30%

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1143467/thailand-share-of-tourism-to-gdp/

[itsari]

11 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Australia gets quite a boost to its economy from overseas students, mostly from Asian countries, who go there for tertiary qualifications that are more valued than the ones they get in their home countries. Of course, that has taken a kick in the family jewels during COVID.

Small players? Australia punches well above its weight in medical science and technology, have you never heard of CSL Limited and Atlassian?

Thank you for your reply.

I took the trouble to look at the two successful Australian companies you mentioned.

CSL being by far the larger of the two with a turn over of 10 billion plus annually and employing 25000 world wide. 

Company originally owned by the Australian Government and made public .

The software company Atlassian founded in 2002  , turnover of 2 billion and 5700 employee's

Thank you for pointing them out to me. However when the GDP of Australia is looked at closely my remark about Australia is not incorrect.

[Longwood50]

On 3/25/2022 at 2:55 AM, webfact said:

The rating agency Standard and Poor or S&P Ratings, one of the three biggest firms in the world, is understood to have downgraded four leading Thai banks in a report published on Tuesday by the International Financing Review (IFR), a leading financial magazine published in London.

I am a former bank executive and I keep very little money here in Thailand transferring only the social security payment here each month to maintain my visa. 

Perhaps the banks are strong, however in the USA banks are required to keep what is known as a "loan loss reserve"  As they earn money a portion of it is transferred out of income into a "reserve account"  That amount is deducted from taxable income.  When loan losses occur the bank uses the money in the reserve account to write off the bad loan loss. 

As loans start to go " non-performing" meaning that customers don't pay, banks are required to write down the value of those loans to reflect what the bank believes it will eventually be able to recover.  That gives people a truer picture of the strength and liquidity of the bank. 

I have been told but I stress I can not verify that this system is not in Thailand.  I was told that banks continue to hold on the the full value of the loan until whatever property used to secure the loan is sold.  If that is the case, banks would be reluctant to sell repossessed property for less than the loan value because it would impact their "reported" earnings and reduce their capital position.  Doing that disquises the true strength of the bank. 

In my opinion, Thailand's economy has been suffering for now two years with the loss of tourism.  I would expect that the number of loans that are not being paid would be up.  If the banks are not recognizing the lower amount that will eventually be recovered from those bad loans, the banks MAY be noticeably worse off than is reported. 

One thing is for sure.  Banks are a mirror reflection of the overall economy.  When times are good, people and businesses borrow and banks make good money.  When times are bad, loan volume goes down, people do not have extra money to deposit into the bank, and loans start going unpaid and banks are sickly. 

[moogradod]

<<<<Content from removed post has been edited out>>>>

 

 

I suppose you are aware of the significance of your statement.

 

Asking for a recommendation of the community now: Would you recommend to cancel accounts, withdraw money in cash (all or just as much to arrive at a saldo below government guarantee (1 Mio.)

[ThailandRyan]

5 minutes ago, moogradod said:

I suppose you are aware of the significance of your statement.

 

Asking for a recommendation of the community now: Would you recommend to cancel accounts, withdraw money in cash (all or just as much to arrive at a saldo below government guarantee (1 Mio.)

Bank of Ayudhya is Krungsri......

Edited March 27, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[moogradod]

11 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Bank of Ayudhya is Krungsri......

So you are saying that Krungsri is in danger and not Krungthai ? We have accounts at both. @cyril sneer Was this is misunderstanding or do I now need to take the money out of Krungsri instead of Krungthai ?

[ThailandRyan]

12 minutes ago, moogradod said:

So you are saying that Krungsri is in danger and not Krungthai ? We have accounts at both. @cyril sneer Was this is misunderstanding or do I now need to take the money out of Krungsri instead of Krungthai ?

No I was mentioning another bank that is solid. Krungthai bank is a State owned bank, like Thai Airways was, so make your own view on That. KTB has been consolidating branches since 2017

 

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/fitch-affirms-ratings-of-krung-thai-bank-securities-subsidiary-outlook-stable-26-03-2021

Edited March 27, 2022 by ThailandRyan

[moogradod]

21 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

No I was mentioning another bank that is solid. Krungthai bank is a State owned bank, like Thai Airways was, so make your own view on That. KTB has been consolidating branches since 2017

 

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/fitch-affirms-ratings-of-krung-thai-bank-securities-subsidiary-outlook-stable-26-03-2021

On the contrary of Thai Airways which is no bank, Krungthai has at least a state guarantee for up to 1 Mio THB per account and account holder. True or not ? I am surprized this is a state owned bank - the guarantee should be higher (maybe wrong).

 

GSB has even unlimited state guarantees. True or not ? The whole exercise of lowering guarantees across the banking landscape from 5 -> 1 Mio per account/holder has had the (wanted) effect that people bring their money to GSB I remember reading.

 

In any case we will transfer quite a bunch of money out of Krungthai - just leave a bit but not many harbours to anchor.

[Blumpie]

On 3/24/2022 at 4:12 PM, it is what it is said:

 

no chance.

Yep that's no chance of the bhats value dropping.

The entire reason why it was so low for many years was because it was manipulated.  If you are looking for someone to blame, blame western countries for threatening to put thailand on the manipulated currency risk.  

This aint' rocket science kids.