4 ways Russia is trying to prove it can live with sanctions

[CatCage]

4 ways Russia is trying to prove it can live with sanctions

London (CNN Business)Russian President Vladimir Putin has devoted considerable airtime over the past few weeks to reassuring the Russian public that sanctions hurt the West more than they hurt Russia.

 

Putin is preparing his country for the long haul. "The collective West does not plan on backing off its policy of economic pressure on Russia," he told aviation executives recently. Every sector of Russia's economy needs to "make a long-term plan based on internal opportunities."

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/22/business/russia-living-with-sanctions/index.html

 

 

[Kwasaki]

It's just going to be another Cold War like before until Putin is replaced I reckon. 

[Chomper Higgot]

May 4th is the cut-off date for Russia to pay interest owed in $.

 

Choosing an unprovoked war of aggression over peace and cooperation wasn’t a wise move.

[placeholder]

On 4/23/2022 at 12:20 PM, Chomper Higgot said:

May 4th is the cut-off date for Russia to pay interest owed in $.

 

Choosing an unprovoked war of aggression over peace and cooperation wasn’t a wise move.

Well, it's significantly different from the cases where countries can't pay because they just don't have the cash. Russia could easily pay if it were allowed to access the international banking system. So their failure to pay won't have the same repercussions as it would were Russia broke. Russia is even talking about launching legal action against the blockade of its access. I have no idea whether or not they might have a valid case.

[KhunLA]

Russia has nothing to worry about, since US, UK, EU & everyone else is still trading with them.  Don't believe the headliners.  Oil & gas is flowing, and people are paying.

[Kwasaki]

8 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Russia has nothing to worry about, since US, UK, EU & everyone else is still trading with them.  Don't believe the headliners.  Oil & gas is flowing, and people are paying.

Heard on the news Russia is still getting a billion $ a day.

[Chomper Higgot]

6 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Heard on the news Russia is still getting a billion $ a day.

So why can’t they pay their bills?

[heybruce]

16 hours ago, Kwasaki said:

Heard on the news Russia is still getting a billion $ a day.

That's true today.  That won't be true in a few years.  Europe has learned the lesson of being critically dependent on Russia for energy and is working to diversify suppliers.  At that time Russia will have lost its only real leverage on Europe and the world economy.

 

Of course I'm sure China will buy Russian oil.  At a discount.  After pipelines are built to deliver it in sufficient quantity.  And China will not make the mistake of relying only on Russia for oil, so while China will have leverage over Russia, Russia will not have leverage over China.  Instead of Ukraine becoming Russia's lapdog, Russia will become China's lapdog.   Nice work Putin.

[Kwasaki]

5 hours ago, heybruce said:

That's true today.  That won't be true in a few years.  Europe has learned the lesson of being critically dependent on Russia for energy and is working to diversify suppliers.  At that time Russia will have lost its only real leverage on Europe and the world economy.

 

Of course I'm sure China will buy Russian oil.  At a discount.  After pipelines are built to deliver it in sufficient quantity.  And China will not make the mistake of relying only on Russia for oil, so while China will have leverage over Russia, Russia will not have leverage over China.  Instead of Ukraine becoming Russia's lapdog, Russia will become China's lapdog.   Nice work Putin.

Whatever the future with a Russia & China relationship it will not be the same as Ukraine, Ukraine was at a great disadvantage although they have put up an extraordinary defence.

[sscc]

The war started on Feb 24, 2022 

 

US$  Vs   RUB Rubles 

Jan 2022   ...     1 : 75 

Early March 2022      1  : 136 

As of today  April 30      1 : 73 

 

Euro  Vs  RUB Rubles 

Jan 2022                    1 :  86

Early March 2022        1 :  150

As of today  April 30     1  : 77 

 

Data tells all rather than this headline or CNN articles that  " Russia needs prove......... Blah Blah Blah "

[candide]

On 4/30/2022 at 5:02 AM, sscc said:

The war started on Feb 24, 2022 

 

US$  Vs   RUB Rubles 

Jan 2022   ...     1 : 75 

Early March 2022      1  : 136 

As of today  April 30      1 : 73 

 

Euro  Vs  RUB Rubles 

Jan 2022                    1 :  86

Early March 2022        1 :  150

As of today  April 30     1  : 77 

 

Data tells all rather than this headline or CNN articles that  " Russia needs prove......... Blah Blah Blah "

And here's the explanation. The Ruble is a Potemkin currency which cannot be sustained for a long time.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble?t=1651414801313

[sscc]

11 hours ago, candide said:

And here's the explanation. The Ruble is a Potemkin currency which cannot be sustained for a long time.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble?t=1651414801313

The article you quoted dated to April 5, 2022. 

 

Exchange rate trending :  

Jan 2022                   USD to RUB      1 : 75 

Early March 2022    USD to RUB       1  : 136 

April 5 , 2022            USD to RUB       1 : 86 

May 2,  2022             USD to RUB      1 : 72 

 

I focused in facts more than anything else, and definitely NOT carried away by some BUZZ wording as whatever  |"Potemkin Currency" implies

 

Quoting such article is analogous to   " a loser favoring biased and loser talk "

 

BTW  You check back on what you wrote/talked in Early March 2022 when RUB was crumbling and noted of so much Self-Contradiction over time.  

 

 

 

[candide]

3 hours ago, sscc said:

The article you quoted dated to April 5, 2022. 

 

Exchange rate trending :  

Jan 2022                   USD to RUB      1 : 75 

Early March 2022    USD to RUB       1  : 136 

April 5 , 2022            USD to RUB       1 : 86 

May 2,  2022             USD to RUB      1 : 72 

 

I focused in facts more than anything else, and definitely NOT carried away by some BUZZ wording as whatever  |"Potemkin Currency" implies

 

Quoting such article is analogous to   " a loser favoring biased and loser talk "

 

BTW  You check back on what you wrote/talked in Early March 2022 when RUB was crumbling and noted of so much Self-Contradiction over time.  

 

 

 

Talking about losers, lol!

The article I quoted is full of Facts. Facts are, for example, that Russia is compelling other countries to pay gas in Rubles, that it has raised interest rates to 20%, and also forced Russian businesses to convert 80% of any money that those businesses make overseas into Rubles

The numbers you showed are not the outcome of the good health of the Russian economy, but of specific decisions made to make the Ruble artificially high.

The problem is that these decisions have a cost. A 20% interest rate is a cost which cannot be sustained for a long period of time. It's not only a cost for the Central Bank. It 's also a cost for any business or people needing to borrow money.

Edited May 2, 2022 by candide

[sscc]

7 hours ago, candide said:

Talking about losers, lol!

The article I quoted is full of Facts. Facts are, for example, that Russia is compelling other countries to pay gas in Rubles, that it has raised interest rates to 20%, and also forced Russian businesses to convert 80% of any money that those businesses make overseas into Rubles

The numbers you showed are not the outcome of the good health of the Russian economy, but of specific decisions made to make the Ruble artificially high.

The problem is that these decisions have a cost. A 20% interest rate is a cost which cannot be sustained for a long period of time. It's not only a cost for the Central Bank. It 's also a cost for any business or people needing to borrow money.

Switched focus to Russia interest rate to justify your view ? 

 

Here is the Facts of Russia interest rate 

Before the war  :                    9%

Feb 28, 2022      :   raised to  20%

April 8, 2022  :        dropped to  17%

April 30, 2022 :       dropped to  14%

As of Today May 2 :         14%

 

You mentioned  20% twice and no other data.   

Why  ?    Not knowing the facts or intentionally biased ?. 

It is Second time now, simply showing your points are Not Credible. 

 

As Thai phrase  "Mai Pei Lai" -- Never Mind.  

I stick to facts above anything else.   You can choose to believe and write/talk whatever.  

Thanks and no thanks to your response.   

   

   

 

 

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

Russia, the most sanctioned country in the world and long may it last.

[Sametboy2019]

Putin wants to be paid in rubles so just use crypto. A bridge currency like xlm or xrp will automatically change the issued currency to the currency required in less than 5 seconds.

[candide]

2 hours ago, sscc said:

Switched focus to Russia interest rate to justify your view ? 

 

Here is the Facts of Russia interest rate 

Before the war  :                    9%

Feb 28, 2022      :   raised to  20%

April 8, 2022  :        dropped to  17%

April 30, 2022 :       dropped to  14%

As of Today May 2 :         14%

 

You mentioned  20% twice and no other data.   

Why  ?    Not knowing the facts or intentionally biased ?. 

It is Second time now, simply showing your points are Not Credible. 

 

As Thai phrase  "Mai Pei Lai" -- Never Mind.  

I stick to facts above anything else.   You can choose to believe and write/talk whatever.  

Thanks and no thanks to your response.   

   

   

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the update, I did not check it since early April. 14% lower than 20% but still high, and still costly.

You may also add inflation to the list of your indicators

"Inflation, which the bank hopes to bring down to its 4% target in 2024, is on track to accelerate to 18-23% this year from 17.6% seen as of April 22, a more than 20-year high."

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-central-bank-lowers-key-rate-14-flags-more-cuts-2022-04-29/

[heybruce]

4 hours ago, sscc said:

Switched focus to Russia interest rate to justify your view ? 

 

Here is the Facts of Russia interest rate 

Before the war  :                    9%

Feb 28, 2022      :   raised to  20%

April 8, 2022  :        dropped to  17%

April 30, 2022 :       dropped to  14%

As of Today May 2 :         14%

 

You mentioned  20% twice and no other data.   

Why  ?    Not knowing the facts or intentionally biased ?. 

It is Second time now, simply showing your points are Not Credible. 

 

As Thai phrase  "Mai Pei Lai" -- Never Mind.  

I stick to facts above anything else.   You can choose to believe and write/talk whatever.  

Thanks and no thanks to your response.  

What about the rest of the link?  https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble?t=1651414801313

 

Putin is holding a gun to the head of those who, for now, must deal with Russia and forcing them to support the ruble.  That's propping up the ruble for now but destroying Russia's credibility as a place to do business.  It will be many years before Russia's economy gets past the damage Putin is doing now.

 

Do you know of anyone who is currently investing in rubles or the Russian economy that has a choice in the matter?

[sscc]

On 5/3/2022 at 1:13 AM, heybruce said:

What about the rest of the link?  https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble?t=1651414801313

 

Putin is holding a gun to the head of those who, for now, must deal with Russia and forcing them to support the ruble.  That's propping up the ruble for now but destroying Russia's credibility as a place to do business.  It will be many years before Russia's economy gets past the damage Putin is doing now.

 

Do you know of anyone who is currently investing in rubles or the Russian economy that has a choice in the matter?

 

1/      The link you quoted was dated April 5, 2022 which was almost a month ago, and the war is on-going on all fronts including the battlefield,  sanctions and trades and economies , propaganda and media, and each is going with new twists and turns on at least weekly basis.   

Are you aware you refer a link outdated for weeks ?   Or do you have to rely on outdated info for sake presenting  your view ?

 

 

2/     You wrote  :   “ That’s propping up the ruble for now but destroying Russia’s credibility as a place to do business “     

 

( Now this is the part you missed out )   USA credibility is an issue due to this war too.   Going gung ho in imposing sanctions and snatching up everything in sight including  personal assets  is more than enough to induce other countries to adjust the geo-political view and reliance,  and super-rich to re-balance the portfolio.   USA is to gain enormous $$$$ from the war,  but USA is losing credibility big time too.

 

 

I don’t see how solely-one-dimensional and agenda-hidden ideas and points are going to contribute positively to this discussion.  

Thanks  but no thanks to your response.    

 

 

 

 

[ozimoron]

12 hours ago, sscc said:

 

1/      The link you quoted was dated April 5, 2022 which was almost a month ago, and the war is on-going on all fronts including the battlefield,  sanctions and trades and economies , propaganda and media, and each is going with new twists and turns on at least weekly basis.   

Are you aware you refer a link outdated for weeks ?   Or do you have to rely on outdated info for sake presenting  your view ?

 

 

2/     You wrote  :   “ That’s propping up the ruble for now but destroying Russia’s credibility as a place to do business “     

 

( Now this is the part you missed out )   USA credibility is an issue due to this war too.   Going gung ho in imposing sanctions and snatching up everything in sight including  personal assets  is more than enough to induce other countries to adjust the geo-political view and reliance,  and super-rich to re-balance the portfolio.   USA is to gain enormous $$$$ from the war,  but USA is losing credibility big time too.

 

 

I don’t see how solely-one-dimensional and agenda-hidden ideas and points are going to contribute positively to this discussion.  

Thanks  but no thanks to your response.   

No country which imposes sanctions against Russia will lose any credibility over doing so. Those who don't will find themselves out in the cold for a long time to come.

[heybruce]

12 hours ago, sscc said:

 

1/      The link you quoted was dated April 5, 2022 which was almost a month ago, and the war is on-going on all fronts including the battlefield,  sanctions and trades and economies , propaganda and media, and each is going with new twists and turns on at least weekly basis.   

Are you aware you refer a link outdated for weeks ?   Or do you have to rely on outdated info for sake presenting  your view ?

 

 

2/     You wrote  :   “ That’s propping up the ruble for now but destroying Russia’s credibility as a place to do business “     

 

( Now this is the part you missed out )   USA credibility is an issue due to this war too.   Going gung ho in imposing sanctions and snatching up everything in sight including  personal assets  is more than enough to induce other countries to adjust the geo-political view and reliance,  and super-rich to re-balance the portfolio.   USA is to gain enormous $$$$ from the war,  but USA is losing credibility big time too.

 

 

I don’t see how solely-one-dimensional and agenda-hidden ideas and points are going to contribute positively to this discussion.  

Thanks  but no thanks to your response.    

 

The pertinent information in the April 5 source remains the same.  Can you identify anything that has changed?  Has Putin stopped requiring overseas Russian businesses to convert 80% of money made to rubles?  Is Putin now allowing Russian brokers to sell securities owned by foreigners?  Has Putin lifted restrictions on Russian citizens transferring money abroad?

 

Western countries are sanctioning the assets of Putin's cronies and corrupt oligarchs who have been stashing wealth in safe countries.  Allowing them to do so has been an embarrassment for these countries, preventing it will cause an imperceptibly small hit on their economies.  It may upset real estate agents and developers (Donald Trump) and super-yacht dealers who cater to that kind of ilk, but other than that the west will be fine.  You'll note the US dollar has been strengthening, not weakening, since the start of Putin's invasion.

 

Stating that US credibility is at risk is laughable.  What do you think Putin is doing to Russia's credibility as a friendly neighbor and reliable supplier of energy?  When Russia had a semi-captive market for energy in Europe it had a reliable cash cow.  Now Europe (excluding Hungary) is diversifying away from Russian energy as fast as possible.

 

I don't see how denying facts will contribute positively to this discussion.  Thanks by no thanks to your response.

[candide]

11 hours ago, heybruce said:

The pertinent information in the April 5 source remains the same.  Can you identify anything that has changed?  Has Putin stopped requiring overseas Russian businesses to convert 80% of money made to rubles?  Is Putin now allowing Russian brokers to sell securities owned by foreigners?  Has Putin lifted restrictions on Russian citizens transferring money abroad?

As far as I know, the only significant changes since April 5:

- the interest rate has been lowered from 20% to 14%

- inflation has reached 17.6% seen as of April 22, a more than 20-year high., and is expected to accelerate, according to Russia's Central Bank.

[onthedarkside]

--TOPIC CLOSED--

 

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