Krungsri Research estimates 5.5 million foreign tourists to visit Thailand in 2022 after ‘Test&Go’ cancellation

[webfact]

PHOTO: Post Today

 

By Nop Meechukhun

 

Bangkok – About 5.5 million foreign tourists are forecasted in 2022 after the government cancels its ‘Test&Go’ measures in May, Krungsri Research reported today, April 27th.

 

Krungsri Research from the Bank of Ayudhya said that although there are positive signs from the cancellation of the Test&Go system and similar relaxation of entry measures, the research only estimated about 5.5 million visitors due to sluggish foreign tourism recovery which was pressured by several factors, including:

 

1. the Russo-Ukrainian war that may affect the number of Russian and other European tourists; 2. the strict enforcement of the Chinese government with their Covid-Zero strategy towards its people that may affect the number of Chinese tourists who are Thailand’s main target group; and [read more...]

 

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Full story: https://thepattayanews.com/2022/04/27/krungsri-research-estimates-5-5-million-foreign-tourists-to-visit-thailand-in-2022-after-testgo-cancellation/

 

-- © Copyright The Pattaya News 2022-04-28

 

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[flyingtlger]

On 4/27/2022 at 1:52 PM, webfact said:

About 5.5 million foreign tourists are forecasted in 2022 after the government cancels its ‘Test&Go’ measures in May, Krungsri Research reported today, April 27th.

Wishful thinking....

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by metisdead
Trolling image removed.

[Fairynuff]

They’ve obviously been taking the same meds that TAT are on.

[ezzra]

The Everly brothers had a famous song: Dreeeeam, dream dream dream,  When I want many tourist to come all i have to do is dream, dream dream...
 

[law ling]

I've never understood the popularity of, or the usefulness of, these predictions of future "tourist" numbers ... but if it's important to them, then carry on.

[RichardColeman]

I actually think 5million is just about possible.

 

IF they drop Test and Go.

IF they stop this Thai pass (look how great our country is you need a pass to get in) nonsense.

IF the drop the insurance demands.

IF they open the bars and clubs.

IF they do not do yet another YOYO

And IF they do it all now, so people looking can book with confidence not wishful thinking

 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

About 5.5 million foreign tourists are forecasted in 2022 after the government cancels its ‘Test&Go’ measures in May, Krungsri Research reported today, April 27th.

I wonder what TAT's estimate will be.. 5.5million per month?

[hotchilli]

1 hour ago, Fairynuff said:

They’ve obviously been taking the same meds that TAT are on.

Sat on the same Marijuana tour bus as Anutin.

[Eleftheros]

9 minutes ago, law ling said:

I've never understood the popularity of, or the usefulness of, these predictions of future "tourist" numbers ... but if it's important to them, then carry on.

It seems to be important to them, because everyone wants to play. Apart from KrungSri estimating, there has been tourism minister (7m); TAT (at least 10m), Ministry Tourism and Sport (8m), Bank of Thailand (5.6m).

 

TOT  recently said that first quarter recorded 444,039 foreign tourists, which would be a base line of 1.76m for the year. Whoever is wrong or right, it's not yet close to the all-time maximum total of nearly 40m in 2019.

 

[RandiRona]

9 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

I wonder what TAT's estimate will be.. 5.5million per month?

Per hour!!

[RandiRona]

9 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Sat on the same Marijuana tour bus as Anutin.

On the top of bus!!

[RandiRona]

24 minutes ago, law ling said:

I've never understood the popularity of, or the usefulness of, these predictions of future "tourist" numbers ... but if it's important to them, then carry on.

Astrology is an import aspect of Thai life....they have to release a future prediction everyday to stay relevant.

[spidermike007]

Those must be some very good mushrooms. 

 

1. No issues plaguing the nation prior to Covid have ever been thought about, much less addressed. 

 

2. Covid has hurt alot of people economically. How long will it take for them to get back on their feet? 

 

3. China has heavy restrictions. When will they end? 

 

4. Thailand has not been able to reduce the number of daily cases. Tourists are taking a real risk by coming here. 

 

5. Thailand pass is still in place. It is a hassle. Why bother? 

 

6. No effort has been made to offer longer visas, nothing has changed or improved. 

 

7. The islands are a pale shadow of their former selves. 

 

8. There are still restrictions in place, with regard to serving booze in restaurants, and the nightlife here is decimated. 

 

These are all deterrents. Expect no more than 2 million tourists total, this year. And that will happen only if the Thailand pass is scrapped. And it could take 5 years, for them to get back to 5 million a year.

 

You don't just open up after 25 months, and the world pours in. And the goons still don't realize and haven't acknowledged that Thailand needs tourism 50X more than tourists need Thailand. 

[ikke1959]

Anutins cannabis program is working very well on TAT.... They see pink elephants and all the numbers double..

[aussiexpat]

I think they're pretty much spot on with 5.5 million (much better than TATS 8-12 million)

 

There were 444,000 in first 3 months and 336,000 during April 1-25, so this should make 845,000 total by end of April.

 

So they only need to keep the current 400,000 per month for next 5 months, and then 900,000 a month during Oct-Dec high season, easy ????

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by aussiexpat

[ThailandRyan]

They are still shooting for June 1st to cancel the entire Thai Pass system and let the vaccination status be added to your TM6 and have the I/O verify it at the I/O desk.  Lets see how long the wait to get through immigration will become if that is the case......

[DUNROAMIN]

Not going to happen. Failing economies everywhere, war, fuel prices up, cities in lockdown, covid restrictions, silly season now in Thailand.

[Walker88]

I think it is becoming clearer to me why NPLs are so high in Thai banks now, if this is the best # Krungsri can muster.

 

Is it possible? Maybe, but it would take an abrupt change. ThaiPass, perhaps just a minor inconvenience after 1 May, still exists. The year is 1/3 over, and even with extremely creative counting, the country saw around 440,000 arrivals in the first quarter. To meet the 'guesstimate', they will need to see about 600,000 arrivals a month on average, or 20K per day. They are also going to be competing with other destinations that have no entry requirements and where folks don't have to apply online to get a "Pass".

 

Maybe if China gives up the ghost on its Zero Covid policy, the number is reachable. Maybe if the ThaiPass is dropped altogether, maybe the number is reachable. Maybe if all bar and entertainment restrictions are dropped, the number is reachable. Maybe if the 'wise and all-knowing' authorities stop re-inventing the wheel just to look like they are doing something, the number is reachable.

 

If I had to take the Over/Under on 5.5 million, I think I would take the Under, though I fully expect goal-seeking on the part of authorities who will count returning Thais, multiple entry businesspeople/workers/spouses, even people who sneak across the border or daily cross the bridge in Maesai-Tachileik as part of the 5.5 million.

 

(Oh, and isn't there a war somewhere that is jacking up fuel prices and grain prices and might be leading to a worldwide recession?)

Edited April 28, 2022 by Walker88

[koolkarl]

If these tourists knew how toxic the air is, no one would come here. 

 

[joecoolfrog]

They didn't even guestimate the trillion baht revenue , poor effort ! 

 

 

[mtls2005]

10 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

If I had to take the Over/Under on 5.5 million, I think I would take the Under

A decent take on the numbers. Maybe a push?

 

A limiting factor is simply available airline seats. Right now there aren't enough to get to 5.5 million.

 

The mechanism whereby there is tourist interest, demand, a desire to travel afar, cost/price, hurdles, then airlines add capacity (restart planes, staff, crew, catering, fuel), immigration staff at arrivals/processing time, local transport, even food supply is a long, long, interdependent chain. It was fine-tuned pre-COVID for quantity, reaching an inherent ceiling plateau at 40 m. It will be a slow climb back to that figure, probably with some turbulence along the way.

 

Charter/bulk-zero dollar tourists could fill the bill in Q4, maybe.

 

thailand yearns to suckle on the foreign teat, again. It's the easy path, but maybe not the best or only one?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[aussiexpat]

20 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

A limiting factor is simply available airline seats. Right now there aren't enough to get to 5.5 million.

 

They're on track for 400,000 in April with the planes they have.

 

Even if there was no increase that would be 3.2 million in next 8 months and 4 million total for year.  Finding another 1.5 million seats over 8 months would not be hard once they ramp up for high season

[SoilSpoil]

Not with the Thai pass they will. Those with unvaccinated kids need to apply for TP at the last moment. Embassies wont be able to handle the millions of requests, so lot of frustrated travellers. And in the era of the internet, the word spreads fast.

 

Without the Thai pass,Thailand might attract a significant mumber of Ai Farang, you know those foreignets that dont take showers accordi g to Anutin, but no Russians and Chinese this year. The Japanese market is also in the duldrums.

 

So cancel the Thaipass and pray that the westeners are coming.

Edited April 28, 2022 by SoilSpoil

[MasterBaker]

numbers auction is opened, TAT will sure to raise the numbers

[Caldera]

Compared with other figures (10+ million) I've seen that were pure fantasy, this guesstimate looks refreshingly achievable. But with so many factors in play, who knows!

[Robert Merrell]

And yet ,I live in the far south east ...test province .

Pollution is rare here .

could not live with it .

[DGS1244]

Cuckoo Land Again

 

[RafPinto]

BREAKING

 

From 1st of june:

 

All female visitors get a "free entrance voucher" for their temple of choice.
All male visitors get a "10 x massage voucher" happy ending guaranteed.

The ladies from the northeast are filling up the buses to go back to their former employment location.

[Eric Loh]

Lots of talking down the tourists estimates. Perhaps link to fear of Baht appreciation as income from foreign tourists contributed to Thailand's surplus current account which is a big factor in Baht strength. 

[Photoguy21]

One thing that is not taken into consideration regarding tourists is that if, due to regulations etc, tourists dont come to Thailand they will go elsewhere. Once they decide the new place is good they will forget Thailand.