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Posted
21 hours ago, thaibook said:

They are not quite all the same.  Some, such as sports betting are "pure" in the sense that each event is independent, the outcome is not affected by the amounts gambled or by whom, and to a large extent it is theoretically possible to calculate the outcome (allowing for luck).  Stocks, currencies, crypto on the other hand are driven to a greater or lesser extent by other users - hence for example a momentum bet in the stock market has a higher chance of being successful than in dog racing.

They are not quite all the same.  Some, such as sports betting are "pure" in the sense that each event is independent, the outcome is not affected by the amounts gambled or by whom,

 

that doesn't sound right, i don't know much about betting, but basic economics would suggest the more money based an outcome would affect the odds, the taker of the bets needs to manage their exposure

Posted
12 minutes ago, it is what it is said:

They are not quite all the same.  Some, such as sports betting are "pure" in the sense that each event is independent, the outcome is not affected by the amounts gambled or by whom,

 

that doesn't sound right, i don't know much about betting, but basic economics would suggest the more money based an outcome would affect the odds, the taker of the bets needs to manage their exposure

the bookie indeed needs to manage his exposure, but the amount bet does not affect the outcome of the dog race.  I doubt the dogs know how much is being but.  On the other hand when betting on a stock or crypto the amount bet influences other peoples' decisions and so changes the odds. 

Posted
On 5/4/2022 at 3:00 PM, thaibook said:

the bookie indeed needs to manage his exposure

Yes, similar in the crypto. The entities that are providing liquidity (bookies/Market Makers) are manipulating price and therefore those with exposure to leveraged futures/bets (punters/'investors"). 

 

The punter in betting is the "investor" in crypto. The market maker (coupled with the exchange who work hand in hand I believe) in crypto is the bookie in betting.

  • Like 1
Posted
On 5/3/2022 at 9:31 AM, OneMoreFarang said:

In principle I agree with you. But to be fair, people who invested early made a lot of money.

What I find surprising, and why I linked the article from above, is how flawed the those cryptocurrency systems still are. Bad things can and do happen which most of us would never expect can possibly happen.

The trick is to be on the right side of bad software.  Think Bill Gates.

 

For those who think their crypto fortunes are safe because the systems were developed by brilliant IT geeks, think Windows.

 

As for the coins themselves, first movers make money, but what people don't understand is that the whales in coins like btc manipulate the market in order to bring in the bid side (now increasingly retail day trading 'geniuses'), then hammer it to harvest their gains. Rinse and repeat. When 25%+ of an instrument is controlled by less than .1% of the holders, anyone outside of that .1% is a mark waiting to be punked. Best not to marry a trade. In manipulated (or outright foolish instruments---think Pets.com), one can trade it, make some dosh, but hang around too long and POOF! Reality is a stern taskmaster.

 

The good news is there's always another coin coming along (20,000 varieties and counting; zero barrier to entry...cute dog logos seem to work), and a seeming endless number of Greater Fools.

  • Like 1
Posted
15 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

 and a seeming endless number of Greater Fools.

As for the infinite number of rare collectible items called NFTs, I see a day in the future where, on a Saturday morning in the lobby of a small city Holiday Inn, a bazillion different NFTs are on sale right next to the "Dogs Playing Poker" and "Tiger Painted on Black Velvet" starving artists' works.

 

P. T. Barnum wishes he was still alive.

  • Like 1
Posted
19 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

As for the infinite number of rare collectible items called NFTs, I see a day in the future where, on a Saturday morning in the lobby of a small city Holiday Inn, a bazillion different NFTs are on sale right next to the "Dogs Playing Poker" and "Tiger Painted on Black Velvet" starving artists' works.

 

P. T. Barnum wishes he was still alive.

The good old times...

a_friend_in_need_poker_painting.jpg

 

Posted

And since it's all related, here's another issue regarding using coins for transactions (in addition to the massive fees noted in the OP's LINKED article.....

 

Suppose in the US someone buys an expensive item with btc....like a Tesla (no longer allowed).

 

Two problems: 

 

1) Unless Elon Musk's bean counters instantly hedge, a day like yesterday sees them losing about 8%

 

2) The buyer using btc to pay has to realize his gains on his btc for tax purposes, so add the capital gains tax on top of his Tesla purchase price. Better he just paid fiat, or given interest rates being less than the capital gains tax rate, finance the car.

 

(I use the US as an example because large transaction require reporting, so the buyer would have to explain the source of his money, and since it's btc, he'll have to state btc purchase price.)

  • Like 1
Posted

you guys needs to watch "Trust No One" on Netflix, it's about a fake crypto exchange owner that took about $500M in retail investor money ????

 

people are dumb, and they never learn, and we are talking Millennials here, so to be expected ????

  • Haha 1
Posted

The system needs improvement, no doubt. However, some have done really well. I have a friend who had the foresight to invest about $30,000 of hard earned money into Bltcoin early on. He cashed out $10 million recently, and is currently sitting on another $10 million plus in Bitcoin. Needless to say he is very comfortably retired.

 

I thought of buying into ETH at $0.65 in 2015. A $5000 investment would be $20 million today, or $30 million plus, at it's peak. Needless to say, I didn't! 

  • Like 1
Posted
22 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The system needs improvement, no doubt. However, some have done really well. I have a friend who had the foresight to invest about $30,000 of hard earned money into Bltcoin early on. He cashed out $10 million recently, and is currently sitting on another $10 million plus in Bitcoin. Needless to say he is very comfortably retired.

 

I thought of buying into ETH at $0.65 in 2015. A $5000 investment would be $20 million today, or $30 million plus, at it's peak. Needless to say, I didn't! 

ok so he got lucky, or basically "winning" where others have lost in that zero-sum game,

 

and hopefully he will pay a lot of taxes with his 10m if he was able to get out in time before he got "exit scammed" by the exchange owners ????

 

the whole thing can't be improved, it's a scam. It took 40 years to out Madoff scam, I wonder how long it will take for cryptos retail investors to get a clue.

 

Never underestimate the stupidity of the average person ????

 

Posted
23 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I thought of buying into ETH at $0.65 in 2015. A $5000 investment would be $20 million today, or $30 million plus, at it's peak. Needless to say, I didn't! 

right, but if you had watched the Netflix documentary, that $5000 investment would have likely gone to some "criminal" at some "fake" exchange, and it would be gone by now, or stolen by hackers.

 

it's not your money until you cash out completely, and the money is wired out safely. Easier to say than done. Then you have the IRS and regulators that will ask for "accounting" evidence, and that could result in a huge tax bill, because of wash sale etc... that means losses can't be used to offset gains.

 

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos ???? 

 

Posted
10 minutes ago, GrandPapillon said:

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos ???? 

I am not really a fan of crypto, especially now. But I think there is nothing wrong with talking about and admitting that some people made a lot of money. I have a friend who invested early and he made good money. I don't know if millions but a few 100k is also not bad.

And about taxes: I would be happy to pay 10 million taxes if I made 20 million. It's all relative.

 

Personally I think investing now is not a good idea. But it was a good investment years ago and without doubt some people made a lot of money. No ifs and buts. 

Posted

I am pro-crypto BUT there is no doubt its a nest of vipers and scammers in the greater alt coin world and NFT world.

 

For those with an interest, look up ZacXBT on twitter. They are exposing crypto scammers everyday, again especially in the NFT world.

Posted
On 5/3/2022 at 4:45 PM, Whale said:

I agree with you as well. 99% of them are ruses/cons or will die through attrition. But the betting is that some will survive and go on to become very important. If you are happy gambling on gold then good for you,  whatever we gamble on be it stocks, fiat, crypto, horses, football, gold, silver, whatever - by buying/saving them we are all taking a punt on future value or trying to beat inflation.

If you are gambling on stocks you are doing it wrong

Posted
9 minutes ago, Whale said:

I am pro-crypto BUT there is no doubt its a nest of vipers and scammers in the greater alt coin world and NFT world.

 

For those with an interest, look up ZacXBT on twitter. They are exposing crypto scammers everyday, again especially in the NFT world.

If it would be "only" the scammers that would be bad enough.

But it seems at least with some crypto currencies there are officially some crazy things going on.

I just read an article (not in English) that one groups of crypto gurus decided one of them made illegally too much money. So they took 30 millions of his crypto money and they moved it to another address. The only problem is that the other address didn't exist. A copy and paste error. And an irreversible error. At least that is the theory. But now they think about restoring the previous blockchain like that transaction never happened.

And all this is official, no hacker involved. Crazy! At least IMHO. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
1 hour ago, GrandPapillon said:

right, but if you had watched the Netflix documentary, that $5000 investment would have likely gone to some "criminal" at some "fake" exchange, and it would be gone by now, or stolen by hackers.

 

it's not your money until you cash out completely, and the money is wired out safely. Easier to say than done. Then you have the IRS and regulators that will ask for "accounting" evidence, and that could result in a huge tax bill, because of wash sale etc... that means losses can't be used to offset gains.

 

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos ???? 

 

Nah. Guys with that kind of money don't pay much tax. Taxes are for the common man. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

right, but if you had watched the Netflix documentary, that $5000 investment would have likely gone to some "criminal" at some "fake" exchange, and it would be gone by now, or stolen by hackers.

 

it's not your money until you cash out completely, and the money is wired out safely. Easier to say than done. Then you have the IRS and regulators that will ask for "accounting" evidence, and that could result in a huge tax bill, because of wash sale etc... that means losses can't be used to offset gains.

 

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos ???? 

 

Yes,  there was a problem with this one exchange  BUT  millions of transactions are done successfully everyday across hundreds of exchanges.  As far as taxes,  sure you might pay some taxes but don't you also pay taxes with stocks ??  So why would that even be considered a negative point against crypto ?  Most of the larger exchanges have some type of insurance or in-house fund that can be used in the event of a hack.  In most of the recent hacks,  the exchanges absorbed the loss and the customer didn't lose anything.  I get it,  you don't like crypto and would never buy any But why be so hard/negative against others that want to take the risk ?  Would you stand in front of the casino door screaming about the bad risk and oblivious house advantages ? As with all forms of investment or gambling,  there will be winners and losers.  It all comes down to luck and timing,  unless you have insider info.  Of course,  insider info trading is illegal and no one would do that.

Posted
6 hours ago, GrandPapillon said:

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos ???? 

You'd just get tax residency in Dubai, withdraw, and then move over to your country of choice -> no or little tax in dubai, and papertrail is covered for the tax man.

Posted
23 hours ago, Jenkins9039 said:

With a $30m payout, you can bet that you will be in an accounting tax mess ???? but you won't hear those stories because there are not as glorious as making $30m with cryptos

Even if I had to pay 40% in taxes,  I wouldn't be complaining about a $18m profit, after I paid my $12m in taxes. Making $18m  sounds glorious to me and in this example then "taxes paid'  and you can spend freely.  

  • Like 1
Posted
On 5/9/2022 at 9:48 AM, Jenkins9039 said:

You'd just get tax residency in Dubai, withdraw, and then move over to your country of choice -> no or little tax in dubai, and papertrail is covered for the tax man.

try to take large sum of money out of Dubai, and let's talk again ????

 

money in Dubai goes it, but doesn't go out

  • Like 2
Posted
2 hours ago, how241 said:

Even if I had to pay 40% in taxes,  I wouldn't be complaining about a $18m profit, after I paid my $12m in taxes. Making $18m  sounds glorious to me and in this example then "taxes paid'  and you can spend freely.  

that if you didn't have any wash sale, which the IRS doesn't take lightly, some have ended up paying all their gains as taxes

 

same with stocks,

  • Like 1
Posted

Taxes are the biggest problem, especially with the USA.  The gov't tries to take as much as they can,  then they waste the tax money on needless things .  A lot of the tax money gets stolen and absorbed by the politicians.  Some things never change. 

Posted
1 hour ago, how241 said:

Taxes are the biggest problem, especially with the USA.  The gov't tries to take as much as they can,  then they waste the tax money on needless things .  A lot of the tax money gets stolen and absorbed by the politicians.  Some things never change. 

need to pay for all those wars ????

 

and to make sure the Russian commies are not coming to invade our European assets ????

  • Like 2
Posted
On 5/3/2022 at 5:06 PM, mjnaus said:

Ethereum never "crashed". The network did exactly what it was designed to do: raise blockspace costs when demand peaks. This, of course, drives up the transaction costs, as it should. And EIP-1559 ensured that a significant portion of those transaction fees was destroyed, putting upward pressure on the price of ETH. 

Ethereum's L1 is not meant to be used by retail users, that's what L2s are for. Only institutions, L2s and other whales should be putting transactions on the L1. During L1 blockspace peaks, blockspace on L2s like Polygon and Arbitrum remained low. 

Easy for you to say!

  • 1 month later...
Posted
On 5/3/2022 at 3:56 PM, bluejets said:

All this crypto bs has to be up there with pyrmid schemes, just a new slant.

Prefer a chunk of gold in my hand any day.

 

Do you participate in the 'gay forum' and tell them that girls are better?

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