Covid-19 in Retrospect

[Danderman123]

Now that most of the pandemic has passed, we can look back at some of the crazier issues that were considered in the depths of the progression of the disease:

 

Herd Immunity: you don’t hear much about that anymore. Basically, there are so many dead ended anti-vax types that Covid will take years to disappear, if ever. On the other hand, at the start of the epidemic, some government idiots suggested that the epidemic be allowed to run its course, until so many people had been infected that the virus had no one else to infect. They seemed a little weak on the math. That approach would have led to full hospitals and millions dead.

 

hydroxychloroquine: No, it doesn’t work, never did, no one believes in it anymore. I won’t start with Ivermectin, it still has some deadender believers.

 

Vaccine deaths: any time millions of people do anything, over the next weeks, some are going to die, for whatever reason. If someone was murdered that had been vaccinated the week before, they showed up in the post-vaccine death numbers. But, now that over a billion have been vaccinated, we are not seeing large numbers of unexplained vaccine deaths.

 

Counting Covid cases: the Deniers liked to point out flaws in the counting methodologies, but the bottom line was that Covid case numbers, if not perfectly accurate, gave a reasonable idea of the number of cases, and the progression of the disease. When Covid was a life and death issue, that was very important.

 

Long term issues with vaccination: the anti-vax types told us that there would be long term consequences from vaccination. Still waiting.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Danderman123

[ukrules]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Now that most of the pandemic has passed

What makes you think it's mostly passed?
 

If you know the actual end date do tell....you seem to think you know everything else

Edited August 25, 2022 by ukrules

[dj230]

Seems like it was handled okay, vaccines worked and ended the pandemic. 

If more people listened and took it more seriously earlier, probably would have been a lot less severe though. 

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, dj230 said:

Seems like it was handled okay, vaccines worked and ended the pandemic.

It's not over.

[StayinThailand2much]

17 minutes ago, ukrules said:

It's not over.

Rising number of new cases, and emergence of new, more dangerous varieties possible. 

[Old Croc]

10 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Now that most of the pandemic has passed

People are still dying from the virus. Apparently there are about 30,000 new cases in Thailand daily. Just heard yesterday that there is infection in the family of our nearest neighbors.

The older population in my village are dropping regularly. Many remain unvaccinated because of the scare stories about a few people dying after the jab. The rabid deniers and rumour mongers are still causing deaths among the unsophisticated and illiterate.

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Old Croc said:

People are still dying from the virus. Apparently there are about 30,000 new cases in Thailand daily. Just heard yesterday that there is infection in the family of our nearest neighbors.

The older population in my village are dropping regularly. Many remain unvaccinated because of the scare stories about a few people dying after the jab. The rabid deniers and rumour mongers are still causing deaths among the unsophisticated and illiterate.

I’m not saying that the epidemic over, only that the worst has passed.

[Lacessit]

IMO the health authorities did the best they could, the worst mistake was probably the mixed message about prevention of infection vs. prevention of serious consequences after vaccination. That, and the deaths occurring after vaccination, was seized on by anti-vaxxers. Post hoc ergo propter hoc remains their credo.

 

We will always have people who are against something or other out of belief. Facts, data and statistics are either completely ignored, or cherry-picked for what they think is logical argument. Social media is full of faux gurus who pander to them to make money. Said gurus tell such people what they want to hear.

 

I've been attacked a few times on ASEAN due to my pro-vax comments. All I can say is COVID vaccination protected me. As other jabs for polio, tetanus, Hep A etc. have done over the years.

 

I also regard such attacks as a badge of honor, because ad hominem comments are an indication of a debater who has run out of rational argument, so they go to the last resort. A dishonest one. I've had enough, let Darwin sort them out.

 

 

 

 

[frantick]

1 hour ago, Lacessit said:

All I can say is COVID vaccination protected me.

That is an ad hominem comment which you made. Does that make you dishonest as you state? 

 

Please tell me how you know, for scientific fact, that the vaccine protected you. 

[VBF]

58 minutes ago, frantick said:

That is an ad hominem comment which you made. Does that make you dishonest as you state? 

 

Please tell me how you know, for scientific fact, that the vaccine protected you. 

One doesn't know for certain........BUT.....  if one listens and reads the real scientific evidence it is apparent that those people who have been vaccinated and caught Covid suffered far less than those who were unvaccinated and caught Covid.  Also as the so-called "deaths occurring after vaccination" have been disproved as being because of vaccination, I was and remain a pro-vaxxer. I actually agree 100% with what @Lacessit wrote 2 posts above.

Edited August 26, 2022 by VBF

[Lacessit]

 

These are the three types of ad hominem argument. I assume you are referring to the second example. In my previous post, I was referring to the first.

 

• Abusive - This is where the person is directly attacked. ...
• Circumstantial - Personal circumstances motivate a person's argument, so it must be false. ...
• Guilt by Association - Due to an association to something negative, an argument is discredited.

My argument is not based on personal circumstances alone, I rely on statistics, such as the fact unvaccinated people have a much higher probability of occupying an ICU, or dying from COVID. Doesn't matter where one looks in the world, the facts don't change.

About three weeks after my first COVID vaccination, I got myself tested for antibodies. They were present. Zero antibodies means an unvaccinated person is relying solely on their immune system to protect them. Being in the most vulnerable age group, I didn't feel like I should be taking on that gamble.

When I caught COVID after my second vaccination, I had a sore throat and runny nose for three days, end of story.. MY GF, 23 years younger than me, unvaccinated, was sick for 10-12 days, with the full array of symptoms.

That's how I know COVID vaccine protected me.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Scott

[Lacessit]

12 hours ago, ukrules said:

you seem to think you know everything else

I rest my case.

[Sametboy2019]

Had Covid twice. Once in March 20. I was quite sick...not the worst illness ive ever had but the lingering cough was annoying.

Vaxxed in March 21 with two Sinovac. June 22 i was sic again. Not as bad as the first time and the cough never came. Symptoms were bad headache slight chills and weakness.

So either the vaccine although a reported poor one works or the virus was weaker!

Either way i have known over 30 people this year of varying weights and health and nobody was seriously ill!

[onthedarkside]

A post with unsourced and unsubstantiated claims has been removed.

 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, Sametboy2019 said:

Had Covid twice. Once in March 20. I was quite sick...not the worst illness ive ever had but the lingering cough was annoying.

 

I am amazed how many Farangs had Covid in early 2020, before Covid tests were available. 

 

 

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, frantick said:

 

 

Please tell me how you know, for scientific fact, that the vaccine protected you. 

There is plenty of data available that the vaccinated are less likely to get infected, less likely to infect others, and less likely to die. 

[VBF]

4 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

I am amazed how many Farangs had Covid in early 2020, before Covid tests were available. 

 

I think it's people with what were later announced as symptoms of Covid making the (dangerous?) assumption that they did actually have it. I was in Thailand March 2020 and had the symptoms for a few days so what with all the publicity, assumed it was Covid as i couldn't recall being in contact with anyone who had 'flu

Was it? I'll never know and it's moot now anyway!

Edited August 26, 2022 by VBF

[UbonEagle]

Yes, Covid was/is real, the early incarnations  particularly, but almost every person I know young old underlying etc all likened omicron to at worst a very bad dose of flu.

and were all the restrictions and controls, (particularly freedom of movement for people to return to their own country) imposed legitimate ?? I would say no but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I doubt anything was done maliciously but modern day risk control (ass covering) and media hysteria were my 2 biggest gripes. 

Edited August 26, 2022 by UbonEagle

[onthedarkside]

Several COVID-related misinformation posts have been removed.

 

[Danderman123]

17 hours ago, VBF said:

I think it's people with what were later announced as symptoms of Covid making the (dangerous?) assumption that they did actually have it. I was in Thailand March 2020 and had the symptoms for a few days so what with all the publicity, assumed it was Covid as i couldn't recall being in contact with anyone who had 'flu

Was it? I'll never know and it's moot now anyway!

Given the deadliness of the initial Covid variant, its amazing the hospitals in Pattaya were not swamped with Farangs suffering Covid in early 2020. Many had it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died. Despite a lack of PPE, isolation measures, and treatments. 

 

Once Covid was recognized, and tests were available, then we saw, a lot of serious cases. 

[VBF]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

Given the deadliness of the initial Covid variant, its amazing the hospitals in Pattaya were not swamped with Farangs suffering Covid in early 2020. Many had it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died. Despite a lack of PPE, isolation measures, and treatments. 

 

Once Covid was recognized, and tests were available, then we saw, a lot of serious cases. 

So for a while, ignorance was bliss!

You say "Many had it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died" but perhaps that should be "Many had symptoms of it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died." I say that because, as you pointed out, at that time there was no or at least insufficient testing to ascertain from what those people were suffering.

 

I think it's also fair to say (without negating the severity of some cases)  "then we saw, a lot of minor cases."

 

Trouble is, this is where the psychology kicks in. A person has symptoms of bad flu (for example), then hears about Covid and, as I said above, the assumption commences.  (Guilty as charged!) The thing that got my attention was the News broadcasts showing hospitals in Italy overrun with Covid cases and the staff powerless to cure people except to shove them on ventilators.

That, IMO, is what drove the other European and UK governments to panic and start locking down, also IMO, Thailand basically followed suit given the sometimes confusing advice from WHO.

 

Don't forget that the word bandied about was "unprecedented" and basically everyone realised they they had to do something about whatever this was, but very few knew exactly what that something should be.

[Danderman123]

8 minutes ago, VBF said:

So for a while, ignorance was bliss!

You say "Many had it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died" but perhaps that should be "Many had symptoms of it, but nobody went to the hospital, or died." I say that because, as you pointed out, at that time there was no or at least insufficient testing to ascertain from what those people were suffering.

 

I think it's also fair to say (without negating the severity of some cases)  "then we saw, a lot of minor cases."

 

Trouble is, this is where the psychology kicks in. A person has symptoms of bad flu (for example), then hears about Covid and, as I said above, the assumption commences.  (Guilty as charged!) The thing that got my attention was the News broadcasts showing hospitals in Italy overrun with Covid cases and the staff powerless to cure people except to shove them on ventilators.

That, IMO, is what drove the other European and UK governments to panic and start locking down, also IMO, Thailand basically followed suit given the sometimes confusing advice from WHO.

 

Don't forget that the word bandied about was "unprecedented" and basically everyone realised they they had to do something about whatever this was, but very few knew exactly what that something should be.

You are missing my point. 

 

Wherever Covid really hit, the hospitals filled up quickly and people started dying like flies. 

 

Pattaya was the one place on Earth where large numbers of elderly Farangs got Covid in early 2020 (allegedly), but the hospitals were not impacted. Amazing Pattaya! 

[VBF]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You are missing my point. 

 

Wherever Covid really hit, the hospitals filled up quickly and people started dying like flies. 

 

Pattaya was the one place on Earth where large numbers of elderly Farangs got Covid in early 2020 (allegedly), but the hospitals were not impacted. Amazing Pattaya! 

I see, but your use of the word "allegedly" is key here.

Don't totally disagree with you, but I still say that many people might have had symptoms of Covid but we'll never actually know how many of them actually had Covid. In my post above, I include myself in that if you care to re-read it.

 

From what I recall it would have been quite difficult to get a test anyway at that point, plus, one must remember the way the Thai Govt treated those who did test positive. I don't recall when they started virtually imprisoning those with Covid but I for one wouldn't have put myself in THAT position so wouldn't have gone to a doctor unless I was really sick. In that case I might have had Covid but would never have been counted / impacted the hospital.

I believe that might apply to many people. So, therefore, the statistics are, IMO, at best, unreliable - and that's if you believe that the numbers published were even accurate.  Some may have been but I honestly believe that there was a lot of estimating and projecting going on. That's not a conspiracy, just that so many information gatherers and compliers were likely to have been out of their depths in the "unprecedented" situation, even those offering their best efforts.

 

Far too many "believes" "mights" and "likelys" to rely on said statistics unfortunately.  As I said earlier, we'll never know and it's now moot anyway, except for discussions such as this one or to learn lessons for the next pandemic if and when.

[frantick]

On 8/26/2022 at 1:55 PM, Lacessit said:

 

These are the three types of ad hominem argument. I assume you are referring to the second example. In my previous post, I was referring to the first.

 

• Abusive - This is where the person is directly attacked. ...
• Circumstantial - Personal circumstances motivate a person's argument, so it must be false. ...
• Guilt by Association - Due to an association to something negative, an argument is discredited.

My argument is not based on personal circumstances alone, I rely on statistics, such as the fact unvaccinated people have a much higher probability of occupying an ICU, or dying from COVID. Doesn't matter where one looks in the world, the facts don't change.

About three weeks after my first COVID vaccination, I got myself tested for antibodies. They were present. Zero antibodies means an unvaccinated person is relying solely on their immune system to protect them. Being in the most vulnerable age group, I didn't feel like I should be taking on that gamble.

When I caught COVID after my second vaccination, I had a sore throat and runny nose for three days, end of story.. MY GF, 23 years younger than me, unvaccinated, was sick for 10-12 days, with the full array of symptoms.

That's how I know COVID vaccine protected me.

Anecdotal, not scientific. 

 

Had the rona at least twice, no issues, no vaccine. But scientifically, I can't claim that being unvaccinated reduced my symptoms, just as you cannot claim vaccination reduced yours. 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Just now, frantick said:

I can't claim that being unvaccinated reduced my symptoms, just as you cannot claim vaccination reduced yours. 

 Comprehensive studies based on large populations are more instructive that one-person anecdotes, and that's exactly what the U.S. CDC has been conducting throughout the pandemic...

 

Their latest info on vaccinated vs unvaccinated is as follows:

 

"People who were unvaccinated had a greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 and a greater risk of dying from COVID-19 than people who were vaccinated overall (see below for the most recent rates).

 

People who were vaccinated with a primary series and two additional or booster doses had lower death rates, followed by people who received one additional or booster dose, compared with those without an additional or booster dose.

 

All vaccinated groups had lower risk of dying from COVID-19 compared with people who were unvaccinated."

 

Specifically:

 

Rate of COVID Deaths in unvaccinated people in the U.S. 5 years and older:

 

In June 2022, the unvaccinated had a 2.1X greater risk of testing positive for COVID and a 5X greater risk of dying from COVID than people with at least full vaccination or better.

 

 

And a more detailed version of the same graphic showing the actual per capita COVID death rates for the last week in June:

 

Rate of COVID Deaths in unvaccinated people in the U.S. age 50 and older:

 

Similarly among the more high risk population, those age 50 and older, the unvaccinated in June 2022 had a 14X greater risk of dying from COVID than those fully vaccinated with two or more booster shots.

 

 

And a more detailed version of the same graphic showing the actual per capita COVID death rates for the last week in June:

 

 

Source link:

 

[Lacessit]

29 minutes ago, frantick said:

Anecdotal, not scientific. 

 

Had the rona at least twice, no issues, no vaccine. But scientifically, I can't claim that being unvaccinated reduced my symptoms, just as you cannot claim vaccination reduced yours. 

So you got lucky in the genetic draw, OR kept yourself fit, OR you are much younger. Proves nothing.

Try reading statistics on the ratio of how many unvaccinated people occupy ICU's and die, vs. those who get vaccinated. If that's not enough scientific evidence for you, I give up.

[Sametboy2019]

I didnt know at the time but after catching it this year it was obvious i had it before. Never had a headache like that in my life! 

[frantick]

17 hours ago, Lacessit said:

So you got lucky in the genetic draw, OR kept yourself fit, OR you are much younger. Proves nothing.

Try reading statistics on the ratio of how many unvaccinated people occupy ICU's and die, vs. those who get vaccinated. If that's not enough scientific evidence for you, I give up.

All I'm saying is it's really down to the individual. Many vaccinated die also. Why? 

I'm old, fat, and a smoker, so yeah, it's probably in my genes or the fact I've built up good immunity by never having flu shots or covid shots. 

I prefer the pre-2020 definition of vaccines. I'll leave it there. 

[mommysboy]

People too easily forget, or never sought to understand, that the Omicron variant we have today is a different beast from the earlier more dangerous variations.

[Lacessit]

1 hour ago, frantick said:

All I'm saying is it's really down to the individual. Many vaccinated die also. Why? 

I'm old, fat, and a smoker, so yeah, it's probably in my genes or the fact I've built up good immunity by never having flu shots or covid shots. 

I prefer the pre-2020 definition of vaccines. I'll leave it there. 

It is not a fact you have built up good immunity by never having  flu or or covid shots, that is just your opinion.

IIRC, you were taking me to task for presenting anecdotal evidence, yet you are doing exactly the same.

 

Yes, vaccinated people also die, usually from co-morbidities. However, it's the relative percentages of people, vaccinated or unvaccinated, who are either dying or getting long COVID, that is significant.

 

You may be lucky enough to be a statistical outlier in the longevity stakes. However, being fat and a smoker for the average person means their lifespan is shortened by about ten years. They spend their last days on oxygen cylinders, struggling to breathe with various forms of lung disease. If they are lucky, they have a heart attack instead.

 

Think about it. If your body mass was to be 10 or 20 kg less than it is now, how much less work would your heart, lungs, hips, knees and muscles generally have to do?