If the worse happens in the war, what happens in Thailand?

[ballpoint]

8 hours ago, Why Me said:

Don't let western media gaslight you. The numbers are tiny. There'll always be a few draft dodgers. Putin is hugely popular as is the war to save ethnic Russians from Banderite thugs.

 

Hey, don't take my word for it. Talk to any of the thousands of Russians cavorting on the beaches here thanks to the strong ruble.

Yep, the thousands of Russians who have fled to Thailand will tell you that no one's trying to escape the draft.

[jvs]

13 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Knowing Thai society, people  and government, would there be martial law a million percent shooting looters etc. or would things just devolve into full anarchy very quickly?

In that case the Thai people will just come and take what you have.

[phetphet]

Not sure about Thailand, but I bet Ukraine regrets giving up it's own nuclear weapons now.

 

Another thing to consider. Any nuclear strikes would likely disrupt the internet and  banking systems among others..

That could in turn prevent the transfer of funds into Thailand. Where would that leave us?

[Jingthing]

It's often said that Thais think f-rangs are rich. Adding insult to injury do you think that means we would be targeted for break ins? Not so much for money which might be worthless but for our imagined well stocked pantries?

[toofarnorth]

If the worst happens ..................................time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ar$e goodbye.

[Jingthing]

3 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Not sure about Thailand, but I bet Ukraine regrets giving up it's own nuclear weapons now.

 

Another thing to consider. Any nuclear strikes would likely disrupt the internet and  banking systems among others..

That could in turn prevent the transfer of funds into Thailand. Where would that leave us?

Definitely disrupted permanently. Would leave us FUBAR.

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, toofarnorth said:

If the worst happens ..................................time to put your head between your legs and kiss your ar$e goodbye.

It wouldn't be that immediate here which might not be such a blessing.

[Lacessit]

There are so many variables in the use of nukes, and the potential response.

IMO there's no point in worrying about something which may never happen, or if it does, won't affect Thailand because it is too far away.

The West does not need to use nukes in response, MOAB's over the battle field or the Kremlin are enough.

Putin is at loggerheads with his military, if he gives the order there is no guarantee it will be carried out.

I can't see any advantages to using a tactical nuke. It would only make Russia more of a pariah. China and India could not stay friendly without becoming on the nose too.  It would also possibly get NATO troops involved, and the Russians have more than enough problems with the Ukrainians as it is.

If Russia does not win this winter, it will be a bankrupt failed state. By the next winter, Europe will have switched to alternative oil and gas supplies, and pipelines to India and China will take years to build. Russia does not have the time, money or expertise anymore. It's quite possible Russia will become a vassal state of China.

I don't know how many others on this forum have read the "Foundation" series by Isaac Asimov. In it, military force, religion and trade contend for dominance of a galactic empire. Eventually, trade wins in the first of the series.

Of course, this is using logic, Putin's logic is a different kind.

 

[Bkk Brian]

9 hours ago, Why Me said:

Don't let western media gaslight you. The numbers are tiny. There'll always be a few draft dodgers. Putin is hugely popular as is the war to save ethnic Russians from Banderite thugs.

 

Hey, don't take my word for it. Talk to any of the thousands of Russians cavorting on the beaches here thanks to the strong ruble.

Yea right, what about Russian media then are they also gaslighting........????

 

Russian state TV says traps are being set up for those who try to leave Russia to evade mobilization

 

[Lacessit]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Yea right, what about Russian media then are they also gaslighting........????

 

Russian state TV says traps are being set up for those who try to leave Russia to evade mobilization

 

I've read reports dead Russian soldiers are being cremated to conceal the true extent of casualties on the battlefront. There is no end to the moral turpitude of the Russian government.

If I was press-ganged into a war where I knew I was simply going to be used as cannon fodder, I would be far more inclined to take out as many of my own commanding officers as I could. Apparently that is happening already.

[Lacessit]

9 hours ago, Why Me said:

Don't let western media gaslight you. The numbers are tiny. There'll always be a few draft dodgers. Putin is hugely popular as is the war to save ethnic Russians from Banderite thugs.

 

Hey, don't take my word for it. Talk to any of the thousands of Russians cavorting on the beaches here thanks to the strong ruble.

I guess those pictures of vehicles and men of military age queued up for kilometres at every remaining border have been photoshopped.

 

Of course the Russians here are cavorting, you think they are going back to Russia any time soon?

 

If anyone is gaslighting, it's you, and you're making a hash of it.

[owl sees all]

I've been thinking about this happening.

 

Unfortunately we live just 7km for the Vof A site. That's sure to get a nuke.

 

But on the upside, we have a 7 metre deep well at the farm. Stock up with crates of water and Bully Beef. Get over there quick when it all kicks off, and get underground for a week or two.

[owl sees all]

54 minutes ago, phetphet said:

Another thing to consider. Any nuclear strikes would likely disrupt the internet and  banking systems among others..

That could in turn prevent the transfer of funds into Thailand. Where would that leave us?

Quite right. The ATMs will not function. Time to buy gold.

[Walker88]

10 hours ago, Why Me said:

Don't let me interrupt your doomsday preps but here's what's going to happen before they ring in the new year:

1. The war will be over. The Russians made a mistake the first time thinking a show of force would be enough to bring Ukraine/NATO to the negotiating table. It didn't so now they will do it the hard way. The current mobilization will be complete before the ground freezes and then they they will move on the hard surface. What's left of the Ukrainian army at the end of it will be huge numbers of separated body parts.

2. No, nuclear weapons will not have been used. 

Generals on both sides may be stupid but they aren't dumb. Conventional ballistic missiles will about it and there'll be plenty of those flying into Ukraine from Russia.

3. Zelensky will be dead, either from a drone strike or shot by his own generals. After which Ukraine will sue for peace and NATO will pretend it all went to plan (just like Iraq and Afghanistan).

4. Europe will suffer a hard winter. Europeans will burn firewood and old clothes to heat themselves. The resulting discontent will lead to more rightwing takeovers. Meloni is the first. Scholz in Germany will be gone. 

 

But, hey, keep stocking up on tuna cans and bottled water.

Fanciful.

 

What putin's war of aggression has shown is that the russian army is poorly trained, poorly led, poorly equipped and russian weapons are poorly made. It looks like all the funds siphoned off from the abject corruption that is that "Gas Station with Nukes" left their armed forces a Potemkin Military.

 

The Ukrainians are infinitely superior as a fighting force and much more highly motivated. Little vladdy is losing face by the day. Those 4 inch lifters he has installed in all of his shoes make his height as fake as his military.

 

He cannot even adequately supply the loser force he currently has. How is he going to supply these pressganged reserves? Anyone driving a tank into Ukraine is going to sell it, hoping to get enough for airfare as far from motherf**king russia as possible. Of course they'll be offered peanuts, because---like that line from the movie Casablanca---"T-90s are a glut on the market....ten bucks"

 

Should little vladdy resort to tactical nukes, russians---no matter their support or lack thereof---will be targeted around the world. It will be open season on them.

Edited October 8, 2022 by Walker88

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, gearbox said:

You are probably in the best place, that's why the uber rich have many deluxe "end of the world" underground residences on the South Island. Maybe you can befriend some of them, they can use your local knowledge ????

20 years younger I'd be digging my own bunker, but if ( and that's a very large if ) it happens I'll be exiting this life when the gangs take over. I have no desire to be on the surface in some sort of Walking Dead scenario.

[internationalism]

even with only 100 1-megastone nukes temperature in North will fall to -15 up to -25C within a week or two.

That would mean no food production there for several years. 

Full scale war (some 2000 1-megatone nukes, so only 25% of usa/russia arsenal)) would wipe out the majority of population within months - from famine.

Average world temperature would fall by 16-20C. Higher fall will be in equator and tropics (thicker atmosphere here) and lower in poles.

Say in thailand temperature would fall 20C, allowing for some crops cultivation for some half part of year - from March to October. Probably no rice, even less likely for fruits (pollination stage would be a problem), as they need higher temperatures and lots of sunshine for photosynthesis.

Some limited fast growing vegetables will be available and needed to be preserved for the rest of year. And mushrooms, which don't need photosynthesis and can be easily dried and stored.

Most of the time people will rely on foraging - including shoots and roots. Probably bamboo would become staple diet, that instead of rice. Bamboo shoots can be preserved for long time.

I think hard disks will be fried up/erased in all domestic appliances, including smartphones. All IT would become obsolete for years.

Electric supply will be patchy. Say a few h per day. It will be coming mostly from hydropowers in Laos (that if they would like to export it), not from imported gas.

Not sure about solar power, if there would be not much sun. And damage to them from radiation.

Moving to countryside (for more readily available food) and to the South (for slightly higher temperatures and less radiation).

So buy food now, which can be preserved for years, for example dried one or processed. Store it in cellars or underground - to prevent from contamination and looting. 

Storing drinking water is problematic, needs a lot of space - some 60 litres per month per family member. Would have to rely on filters, probably portable ones. There won't be shortage of water, but for drinking would have to come from deep wells, uncontaminated.

Stock up on most needed medicines - even beyond their expiry date they still can be used.

 

 

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

49 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

IMO there's no point in worrying about something which may never happen,

Well said.

If it happens there isn't anything any of us can do about it, except try to survive best we can. Those in LOS with access to farms will be the winners, while those in high up condos in cities not so much.

Those that don't like guns may come to regret it.

 

Anyway, it didn't happen when Kennedy and Khrushchev faced off, and IMO that was a higher risk than now. I don't think it's going to become a full on nuclear war, whether Putin uses tactical ones or not, so correct to say "there's no point in worrying about something which may never happen".

[thaibeachlovers]

8 minutes ago, internationalism said:

Moving to countryside (for more readily available food) and to the South (for slightly higher temperatures and less radiation).

So buy food now, which can be preserved for years, for example dried one or processed. Store it in cellars or underground - to prevent from contamination and looting. 

Storing drinking water is problematic, needs a lot of space - some 60 litres per month per family member. Would have to rely on filters, probably portable ones. There won't be shortage of water, but for drinking would have to come from deep wells, uncontaminated.

While correct, how many people could realistically do any of that? IMO sod all. You're either in the right place when it happens or kiss this life goodbye.

However, as said already, unlikely, so not much point stressing about it.

[bobbin]

I saw a projected impact only a few days back...

 

Northern latitude countries, Russia, Canada, USA, much of Europe.. 95% casualties.. from starvation due to impact on ability to grow food crops.

 

Equatorial countries, Thailand ,Malaysia mentioned specifically.. 40-50% casualties.. easier to still grow food crops..

 

So Thailand is an excellent place to be, relatively speaking..

[thaibeachlovers]

42 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

Quite right. The ATMs will not function. Time to buy gold.

Better stock up on weapons then. Otherwise people with weapons will steal your gold and food and leave you to starve.

[thaibeachlovers]

48 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

I've been thinking about this happening.

 

Unfortunately we live just 7km for the Vof A site. That's sure to get a nuke.

 

But on the upside, we have a 7 metre deep well at the farm. Stock up with crates of water and Bully Beef. Get over there quick when it all kicks off, and get underground for a week or two.

No idea what Vof A site means, and neither does google.

You assume they'd waste a nuke on Thailand which isn't a threat?

If there is any danger to farangs it's that locals will take their goodies, and if the wind is in the wrong direction it's over for anyone without a bunker and months of supplies, IMO.

 

For an idea of what it might be like watch "On the Beach".

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, phetphet said:

Not sure about Thailand, but I bet Ukraine regrets giving up it's own nuclear weapons now.

 

Another thing to consider. Any nuclear strikes would likely disrupt the internet and  banking systems among others..

That could in turn prevent the transfer of funds into Thailand. Where would that leave us?

LOL. The end of the world as we know it happens and you are worried that you won't be able to get money or use the internet?

BTW, even if the banks in Thailand still operated, if your country is a radiated desert, your currency won't be worth diddly.

[owl sees all]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No idea what Vof A site means, and neither does google.

You assume they'd waste a nuke on Thailand which isn't a threat?

If there is any danger to farangs it's that locals will take their goodies, and if the wind is in the wrong direction it's over for anyone without a bunker and months of supplies, IMO.

 

For an idea of what it might be like watch "On the Beach".

V of A. Voice of America.

 

Dark site. Underground dungeons; allegedly!

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, toofarnorth said:

We stood quite still 'till we see their faces well then we opened up our muskets and we really gave them hell.     A song from when I was about 13. Lonnie Donegan.

#1 hit 1959 - Johnny Horton...

 

He is the 8th old man named Donegan - Lonnie the VIII he am he am

[jvs]

I already mentioned this in another topic,what if

Putin "by accident"bombs a nuclear energy facility?

 

 

[jvs]

26 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well said.

If it happens there isn't anything any of us can do about it, except try to survive best we can. Those in LOS with access to farms will be the winners, while those in high up condos in cities not so much.

Those that don't like guns may come to regret it.

 

Anyway, it didn't happen when Kennedy and Khrushchev faced off, and IMO that was a higher risk than now. I don't think it's going to become a full on nuclear war, whether Putin uses tactical ones or not, so correct to say "there's no point in worrying about something which may never happen".

Khrushchev was not a psychopaht like

putin.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

V of A. Voice of America.

 

Dark site. Underground dungeons; allegedly!

No need for a nuke. Conventionally armed ICBM would do just fine ( but not good for you only 7 km away ). Better get digging on the bunker. At least you'll be able to come out once the shouting is over, as no radiation.

[BonMot]

16 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Putin is cornered

Thanks for the laff

[Lacessit]

10 hours ago, Why Me said:

Don't let me interrupt your doomsday preps but here's what's going to happen before they ring in the new year:

1. The war will be over. The Russians made a mistake the first time thinking a show of force would be enough to bring Ukraine/NATO to the negotiating table. It didn't so now they will do it the hard way. The current mobilization will be complete before the ground freezes and then they they will move on the hard surface. What's left of the Ukrainian army at the end of it will be huge numbers of separated body parts.

2. No, nuclear weapons will not have been used. 

Generals on both sides may be stupid but they aren't dumb. Conventional ballistic missiles will about it and there'll be plenty of those flying into Ukraine from Russia.

3. Zelensky will be dead, either from a drone strike or shot by his own generals. After which Ukraine will sue for peace and NATO will pretend it all went to plan (just like Iraq and Afghanistan).

4. Europe will suffer a hard winter. Europeans will burn firewood and old clothes to heat themselves. The resulting discontent will lead to more rightwing takeovers. Meloni is the first. Scholz in Germany will be gone. 

 

But, hey, keep stocking up on tuna cans and bottled water.

1/ The war will not be over until Putin is gone. The mobilization is already a shambles, how desperate does one have to be to offer criminals amnesty to enlist?

 

2/ Russia's supply of ballistic missiles is getting very thin, cannibalizing dishwashers and refrigerators for computer chips is enough evidence of that.

 

3/ Zelensky and his generals are of one mind, Putin and his are not. The turnover of generals being fired or killed off by Ukrainian strikes is getting to be embarrassing.

 

4/ Europe will no longer be dependent on Russian oil and gas the following winter for their heating.

 

Whatever you are smoking must be quite a powerful hallucinogen.

[orang37]

Once the sky falls, everything will go underground.