5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

If Putin uses even a tactical nuke, China and India would drop him like a hot potato.

Why?

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Even if it's half a percent that's way too much of a risk considering the consequences.  Of course the exact number can't really be quantified but definitely over zero.

Most people would say there is less than 1% chance putin uses nukes.

 

The intel community, who has done assessments of putin's character and stability, likely puts that at 25%.  putin is a psychopathic, insecure, vindictive, paranoid coward. That makes him unstable. If he uses nukes, there's about an 80% chance it starts Armageddon, both as a response or via an error resulting from itchy trigger fingers. When tensions are high, mistakes are much more likely.

 

So that means about a 15% chance we are on the verge of nuclear annihilation and the extinction of our species. Nobody will survive, not in Thailand, not anywhere.

 

This is more serious than the Cuban missile crisis. Khrushchev had been a front line soldier, in a leadership role. He had seen war up close and death up close. He was more attuned to the horrors, and also more rational and personally secure than putin.

 

15% still leaves 85% chance we live to see 2023 and beyond, but there is genuine cause for concern.

2 hours ago, Jingthing said:

I guess if this happens, there will be a big demand for cyanide pills. I don’t see much of a survival path for urban f-rangs.

Well, I've got heaps if you want some?

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Well, I've got heaps if you want some?

Oh. So you can hook a brother up.

Putin has just blown up his own Crimea Bridge as a false flag excuse to use nuclear weapons.

Start ducking.

1 hour ago, Old Croc said:

Putin has just blown up his own Crimea Bridge as a false flag excuse to use nuclear weapons.

Start ducking.

Biden blow up the gas line and Putin blow up his Bridge on his birthday? What's next? 

You're obviously a "glass half empty" person. 

14 hours ago, poyai111 said:

Exit strategy? Vaporization is the lesser of many evils one of which would be the collapse of law and order ( in Los easily achievable) and the prospect of total anarchy.

Indeed. Even if the country I live in was unscathed from a nuclear war in northern hemisphere, we have a huge gang presence that IMO would likely seize control ( like in Walking Dead tv series ) and I for one would rather I'd been in northern hemisphere so as not to be subject to being under gang control.

 

However, as it's very unlikely to happen ( nuclear war ), I'm not stressing about it.

9 minutes ago, bangkok19 said:

You're obviously a "glass half empty" person. 

Yes.

Next?

5 hours ago, Walker88 said:

Most people would say there is less than 1% chance putin uses nukes.

 

The intel community, who has done assessments of putin's character and stability, likely puts that at 25%.  putin is a psychopathic, insecure, vindictive, paranoid coward. That makes him unstable. If he uses nukes, there's about an 80% chance it starts Armageddon, both as a response or via an error resulting from itchy trigger fingers. When tensions are high, mistakes are much more likely.

 

So that means about a 15% chance we are on the verge of nuclear annihilation and the extinction of our species. Nobody will survive, not in Thailand, not anywhere.

 

This is more serious than the Cuban missile crisis. Khrushchev had been a front line soldier, in a leadership role. He had seen war up close and death up close. He was more attuned to the horrors, and also more rational and personally secure than putin.

 

15% still leaves 85% chance we live to see 2023 and beyond, but there is genuine cause for concern.

1/ I very much doubt the decision to use nuclear weapons is Putin's alone ( as is the case { I sincerely hope } with such in any nuclear armed country ).

 

2/ If it actually did happen, would the Americans choose to escalate to MAD? I for one very much doubt that.

 

3/ Ukraine is not in NATO and there is zero requirement for NATO to respond in kind.

 

 

 

11 hours ago, soalbundy said:

No, Putin's hold on power has become precarious of late, even if he gave the order to use a nuke (a low yield would be the size of a Hiroshima bomb) it is the military commanders who would actually initiate the strike and I doubt that they would do so, they better than anyone would know the consequences for themselves and their families. This isn't a scenario where hundreds of american missiles heading for Russia have been detected on radar and a well oiled machine is set in motion to counter strike, a commander would be told from a failing dictator to send a nuke to a country on the border with Russia for no rational purpose. It would be Putin's last order.

Finally someone with a rational post.

I think many of us relish being worried about something that is unlikely to happen, given some of the posts on this thread.

 

IMO the only reason to initiate MAD would be if the Americans were to launch a missile strike against Russia, despite no attack on any NATO country.

6 hours ago, Lorry said:

Why?

Because still staying friendly to Putin would make them pariahs as well.

Without trade, China would go down the toilet. The same sanctions that are devastating the Russian economy, if applied to China, is where the CCP does not want to go.

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

You're wrong.

It's possible. 

Discuss scenario theories on the POLITICAL topics.

Anything is possible.

Could have happened over Cuba and didn't.

Could have happened in Korea against the Chinese and it didn't.

Will it happen now? IMO highly unlikely, but I'm not psychic.

I just hope some leader in the west doesn't decide everyone in Europe/ Nth America dying is worth it to "save" Ukraine.

12 hours ago, Jingthing said:

The premise of this topic is actually what happens in Thailand if the war escalates to full blown nuclear war where Russia, Europe, and North America are wiped out bringing on global nuclear winter.

 

If and it's a very, very big if, that happens, IMO your best option ( unless having a well armed village family that loves you ) would indeed be a cyanide pill.

I doubt a bahtless farang will be given much lovin' if it really did come to the end of the world as we know it.

12 hours ago, portlandtree said:

For JINGTHING nuclear winter doubt it. The moment nato sees that Russia activated ( not sent ) a nuclear icbm or Tactical one they will take out all missile silos nato will flatten Russia or shoot down everything that got activated (always a small small chance) a couple get thru. In the future there will be no russia, Soviet Union, or? Feel sorry for all citizens but it’s still their governments fault. Hey don’t worry about it, nobody will obey the orcs orders as they know it’s them and all thier family  are history so yeah pootin try pushing your blue/white/red button that’s a 99% bullet in your Brain.

You reckon they know where the Russian missile subs are lurking? If they don't, expect a nuke in the White house.

It's called MAD for a reason.

On 10/7/2022 at 9:17 PM, KhunBENQ said:

Don't think about it. It's nothing you can prepare for.

Ok you could survive somewhat longer hiding in a cave/bunker.

Living on hunting, collecting fruit etc. Back to stone age just no mammoth.

But within weeks and months the northern hemisphere would become an unfriendly habitat. Yes, nuclear winter.

Also read that with some delay the fallout/pollution would also stretch to the southern hemisphere. So sorry you Australians.

Now waiting for the next Hollywood Armageddon movie.

 

There is speculation that the Russians could come through with a tactical ("small") nuke for "demo" purposes and the west would not strike back.

The most excellent book "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute cover this exact OP although substituting Oz for Thailand. A cast of characters living out the short remainder of their lives waiting for the radiation cloud to arrive from nuclear war in the northern hemisphere. Well worth a read again. 

 

 If a spoiler is needed, all life on earth ends. Better to lose some face and enter negotiation and an end to the "we are 100% correct and Russia is 100% wrong" false narrative that is leading us to the end.

26 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

The most excellent book "On the Beach" by Nevil Shute cover this exact OP although substituting Oz for Thailand. A cast of characters living out the short remainder of their lives waiting for the radiation cloud to arrive from nuclear war in the northern hemisphere. Well worth a read again. 

 

 If a spoiler is needed, all life on earth ends. Better to lose some face and enter negotiation and an end to the "we are 100% correct and Russia is 100% wrong" false narrative that is leading us to the end.

To be pedantic, all human life ends. No doubt some life will remain, though not us.

 

If one can find it, the book "Level 7" gives a description of living underground after a nuclear war renders the surface unlivable.

1983 movie "Testament". About an American family through the nuclear war and the aftermath. Worth a watch.

On 10/7/2022 at 8:45 PM, Jingthing said:

IF that happens, God forbid, but there really is a chance, what happens to the people in Thailand.

The people of Thailand will wake up in the morning an do what they do every morning.

The government will do nothing and sit on the fence as normal.

TAT will predict an increase in tourism.

8 hours ago, Old Croc said:

Putin has just blown up his own Crimea Bridge as a false flag excuse to use nuclear weapons.

Start ducking.

If you don't think he would be capable, look at the way he is throwing his own citizens to their death in the war. He is hands on with battlefield decisions (bad ones) resulting in huge losses. 

Remember the Russian apartment bombings that killed over 300. It's generally accepted now that Putin, then the new PM, was behind them to justify invading Chechnya to steal their oil, and to cement his position as a strong man leader.

The only way his generals would stop him would be if one was brave enough to use a bullet.

 

Pick the psycho: 

On 10/7/2022 at 8:45 PM, Jingthing said:

Seeking responses from science types that actually have knowledge of these matters

Chinese are dreaming for that moment. That is the most I'm worry about. With all contaminated lands on earth Chinese will be here to seize anything they need. 

On 10/7/2022 at 9:28 PM, Jingthing said:

Well you went there.

Yes the Russians if they do would start small.

But the west would definitely respond strongly  even without nukes.

That would be the critical decision time for Putin that could start the end.

As far as I'm aware, Putin is not in the best of health, suppose his health worsens and he has not got long to live, can Russia start nuking countries on his say so only? Or does anyone else have the power to over rule him? I am sure if Biden decided to be the first to start nuking there are those who would over rule him.

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

The people of Thailand will wake up in the morning an do what they do every morning.

The government will do nothing and sit on the fence as normal.

TAT will predict an increase in tourism.

No way.

At the very  least the entire  country will be running on the banks, gold shops, food stores, gun shops, and any survival supply stores  There will be looting, probably martial law, and the beginning of breakdown of civilization. There will be a mass exodus from the cities. 

On 10/7/2022 at 10:16 PM, KIngsofisaan said:

Tourism Authority will claim it is 100% safe. Please come to Thailand!

 

But the unelected PM, and probably his sleeping partner as well does not want ordinary tourists to come here, they put obstacles in their way even before the pandemic.

On 10/7/2022 at 8:45 PM, Jingthing said:

if that happens the west will retaliate and from there there is the real chance of full nuclear war destroying Russia, Europe, and North America. 

Doomsday scenario.  End of world kinda stuff, no cure for radiation poisoning, so wondering what will happen is moot.  Death, nuclear winters, more death.

On 10/7/2022 at 10:29 PM, Jingthing said:

Would officers even go to work?

What officers do you mean JT? The unelected PM, his sleeping partner, the other Chuckle Brother Anutin, the rest of his generals?

The RTP? They will be mostly on inactive duties anyway. ????

3 minutes ago, possum1931 said:

What officers do you mean JT? The unelected PM, his sleeping partner, the other Chuckle Brother Anutin, the rest of his generals?

The RTP? They will be mostly on inactive duties anyway. ????

Immigration.

Such matters would become instantly trivial.

Banks will be closed too.

28 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

No way.

At the very  least the entire  country will be running on the banks, gold shops, food stores, gun shops, and any survival supply stores  There will be looting, probably martial law, and the beginning of breakdown of civilization. There will be a mass exodus from the cities. 

A bit like national holiday time then?

Just now, hotchilli said:

A bit like national holiday time then?

Permanently.

1 minute ago, hotchilli said:

A bit like national holiday time then?

Permanently.