What stocks are you buying in this bear market ...

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Yep, nothing lasts forever and anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be allowed to invest. 

 

Here's a three year old article about Apple, the author compares Apple to Sony and talks about maxing out its key product without having anything to replace it with.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/26/dark-days-are-closing-in-on-apple/?sh=4a86df473957

Apple up 250% since that article was written.

 

Never take advice from journos on stocks.

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Sparktrader

[Sparktrader]

If a journo says sell you buy

If they buy you sell

[Sparktrader]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4483348-bear-market-history

 

October and June most common months for stock market lows.

 

A low next June would make a 17 month bear market. Fits in with controlling inflation as it takes time.

 

I will go for that, June low. Might come in March though which was the most recent bear market lows.

 

 

[nigelforbes]

Is it really necessary to create a new post every time a slightly different thought comes into your head! Why don't you just slow down, think about the subject and then post once with a complete and well thought through answer, I think most people would appreciate that. You've posted 37 times already in this thread, many within seconds of the prior post!! I've got you on ignore but my screen is still littered with ignored post messages, it's seriously bizarre behavior.

[pomchop]

1 hour ago, Sparktrader said:

You think Apple is a horse buggy stock?

 

 

no but it may well be a horse buggy in 20 years or so if/when somebody invents a better version and makes their entire product line obsolete...sort of like a record player or a dial phone or telegraph lines or....drum roll.... a horse buggy

[Sparktrader]

I would like the dow to fall back to blue line. 12 year bands at 20%. No value unless it does.

[Sparktrader]

22 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Is it really necessary to create a new post every time a slightly different thought comes into your head! Why don't you just slow down, think about the subject and then post once with a complete and well thought through answer, I think most people would appreciate that. You've posted 37 times already in this thread, many within seconds of the prior post!! I've got you on ignore but my screen is still littered with ignored post messages, it's seriously bizarre behavior.

Your Apple link was wrong by $110 a share. Why quote a journo who got it totally wrong?

 

I follow the markets. If I want to post 1 time or 20 that is up to me. Just because I proved you wrong with facts don't get upset.

 

 

[Sparktrader]

17 minutes ago, pomchop said:

no but it may well be a horse buggy in 20 years or so if/when somebody invents a better version and makes their entire product line obsolete...sort of like a record player or a dial phone or telegraph lines or....drum roll.... a horse buggy

You can sell shares in seconds. I have bought and sold in 30 minutes making 100% on penny stocks.

[nigelforbes]

OK, thanks for that, thanks for confirming what you are and are not. It makes my posting life that much easier since I don't have to give you the benefit of the doubt and don't have to bother opening your posts to see if you might ever say something useful.

[Sparktrader]

The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 28.5. This is 41% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E 1.0 standard deviations above the modern-era average. This suggests that the market is Overvalued

 

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-earnings.php

[nigelforbes]

I think this sums up things nicely:

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-can-get-to-4-150-before-reality-sets-in-says-morgan-stanleys-normally-bearish-top-strategist-11667213242?siteid=yhoof2

[Sparktrader]

5 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I think this sums up things nicely:

 

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-can-get-to-4-150-before-reality-sets-in-says-morgan-stanleys-normally-bearish-top-strategist-11667213242?siteid=yhoof2

"We’re almost through one of the most feared months of trading, which as it turns out, is set to deliver the best return for the Dow industrials since 1976, and best month since July for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite"

 

9 month bear market. The October crashes happened after more recent highs.

 

No real surprise to see a rally in October. If it was going to crash it would have happened back in March after a January high.

 

 

 

 

[nigelforbes]

Bond yield curves are inverted, the return on the 3 month is greater than on the 10 year which almost guarantees a recession is coming.

 

"The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell as much as 11 basis points to 3.94%, compared to a peak of 4.34% last month, the highest since 2007".

 

"The rush for bonds comes as Chair Jerome Powell’s favored portion of the yield curve -- the difference between where three-month rates are now versus where they are expected to be in 18 months’ time -- is on the cusp of inverting, with the spread between the two tumbling to a mere 0.2 percentage points Tuesday from 2.7 percentage points in April."

 

"An inverted yield curve is a key warning sign for many investors that a recession is coming as the market begins to price in an end to tighter policy and braces for lower rates in the future to soften the blow of a looming slowdown. Many closely-watched spreads in the Treasury market have already flipped below zero".

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-rally-powell-favored-curve-103953661.html

 

 

 

 

[nigelforbes]

These pre-Fed bear market rallies have become a feature of the current markets, rally, stall, Fed meeting, down. Watching the S&P performance is pointless, far better to watch the Treasuries yield curves, unemployment numbers, the VIX and the US DI.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/TMUBMUSD10Y?countryCode=BX&mod=MW_story_quote

 

When unemployed numbers increase and the 10 year, the DI and the VIX fall, that will be a better time perhaps.

 

"Asian stocks headed for a decline on Wednesday to follow US shares lower as hopes the Federal Reserve would soften its hawkish stance vanished on robust US jobs data".

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-under-pressure-hope-fed-223241287.html

[jdlancaster]

Canadian Oil E&P companies. Printing money. E.G. CVE, SU, GENGF, MEG, etc.

[swissie]

On 10/31/2022 at 8:54 PM, Jingthing said:

I will answer first.

 

I'm looking at tons of stocks.

 

I don't have the skills to analyze companies myself so I'm overly dependent on media sources.

 

So far I've bought Berkshire Hathaway-B. This stock holds so many other stocks that it's much more like an ETF than a one company stock.

 

I will probably soon buy Mercado Libre (Uruguay) and Palo Alto Networks.

 

Mercado Libre is a potential future Amazon of Latin America. Software/Fintech. I have contact with expats there that rave about their services. Palo Alto Networks is a leader in cybersecurity.

 

But prices are now so low now for very many appealing companies, it sure isn't easy coming up with the finalists.

 

Personally I am not interested in short term trades. I want stocks with great long term potential to hold indefinitely. 

 

I'm cool with moderate risk, bored with very low risk and low potential, and open to smaller gambles on high risk. 

I know only of 2 "market approaches".

a) "Trade the markets". That way, 85% of retail investors lose money.

b) "Long term investing". Major requirement: Start at a young age. Pointless to start long term investing at the age of 75.

There comes a time when time (the most important ingredient of long term investing) is no more on ones side.

So, ones "life expectancy" weighs heavier than the direction of the markets. Surely, to asses future market performance in combination with ones life expancy at old age must boil down to the ultimate speculation of a lifetime.

- I myself have cashed in on most I owned. I intend to spend it on fast women and fast cars. The rest, I will just squander.

[nigelforbes]

3 hours ago, swissie said:

I know only of 2 "market approaches".

a) "Trade the markets". That way, 85% of retail investors lose money.

b) "Long term investing". Major requirement: Start at a young age. Pointless to start long term investing at the age of 75.

There comes a time when time (the most important ingredient of long term investing) is no more on ones side.

So, ones "life expectancy" weighs heavier than the direction of the markets. Surely, to asses future market performance in combination with ones life expancy at old age must boil down to the ultimate speculation of a lifetime.

- I myself have cashed in on most I owned. I intend to spend it on fast women and fast cars. The rest, I will just squander.

Very true, Investing is already quite risky, when you add in the old age factor it becomes unacceptably risky for many, the trouble is that many of them don't understand that! "The literature" used to recommend holding funds for at least five years, now, many are saying ten years. But you have to add to that the earn back period needed to recoup that money through employment, in case everything goes South. That suggests people over 50 probably shouldn't invest in markets, or if they do, that they should adopt the lowest risk approach. 

 

There's investing and then there's, investing. It's one thing to hold half a dozen high risk/high volatility tech funds but it's something else entirely to hold T'bills and Gilts. The problem I see is that very few people who made money previously by investing in higher risk instruments, seem prepared to tone things down as they get older and reduce their risk. Warren Buffet famously said, "diversification is for people who don't know what they are doing". I clearly must not know what I'm doing because it's only diversification that has saved my financial bacon. FWIW some of my investing rules include, always:

 

- diversify geographically,

- diversify by sector,

- diversify by asset class, over and beyond just equities and conventional bonds,

- use the highest caliber Fund Manager possible,

- never buy anything that locks into a single geography, always allow an escape path,

- maximum 10% in small caps,

- only buy things you can see inside of and understand fully.

 

As a wise old sage once said, markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. Case in point, the S&P is down 2.5% this morning, following the Fed announcement, aren't you glad you didn't buy yesterday!

 

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by nigelforbes

[mania]

On 11/1/2022 at 8:37 AM, Jingthing said:

There is a theory going around that the market won't do much for 10 or 20 years

Here is a theory which of course is worth what you paid for it...

 

We have just entered a true bear market

There will be powerful rallies with in this crashing market

 

A sustainable low will be at the end of 2024 where we will be coming out of a depression with the final lows in the housing markets

 

The depression will hit food supplies & energy hard 2023 & 2024 is going to be very tough for most people.

 

So lets get back together here on this topic in 2024 & see how these markets (& the world) did????

 

PS: bonus tip...Another theory (not mine) something big is coming 11/11/2022

Whether caused by midterm election results or Russian starting its main offensive we will see eh?

 

 

[mania]

On 11/10/2022 at 5:31 PM, mania said:

nother theory (not mine) something big is coming 11/11/2022

Whether caused by midterm election results or Russian starting its main offensive we will see eh?

I guess it was an 11 Nov 2022 event but not Russia starting main offensive but retreat

Russia’s Kherson retreat marks tectonic shift in Ukraine war

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by mania

[KannikaP]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:54 AM, Jingthing said:

I want stocks with great long term potential to hold indefinitely. 

You mean until after you kick it?   555

Stocks etc are only a piece of paper, if that, until you sell.

Edited November 12, 2022 by KannikaP

[Jingthing]

43 minutes ago, KannikaP said:

You mean until after you kick it?   555

Stocks etc are only a piece of paper, if that, until you sell.

Those are real questions.

It depends on the individual like most everything else.

I need to supplement my modest social security income with retirement account withdrawals and I'm comfortable with the 4 percent rule. So unfortunately there does need for some assets ( stocks bonds cash) to always be there to draw upon for life.

But some people care a lot about leaving a big legacy and others would rather it be as low as possible to still keep an adequate base for drawing income. 

So yep you die with that.

I don’t think stock is just paper. It represents ownership of part of a business with a fluctuating value.

Of course the price of buy and sell is critical. If you're a longer term investor if the stock is down you haven't lost anything unless until you sell.

Of course and others have mentioned your age and health are relative. So 25 year olds should view things differently than older people. 

But here is an example. Microsoft stock. While a young person could wisely buy it now a person looking at a shorter long term view like perhaps five years will probably do well too. So yeah more worse case scenarios it could go down another 30 percent from now but odds are very good it will pay off within five years probably much sooner. You can't pick bottoms and you don't need to. Of  course some companies go to zero. Microsoft won't in the foreseeable future.

These age health personal calculations as far as investment ranges are somewhat similar to the decisions Americans must make when deciding when to start benefits. 

I went with 62.

Edited November 12, 2022 by Jingthing

[Jingthing]

I continue buying selected stocks.

I know it's somewhat contrarian to many.

It seems safer than Bitcoin anyway, yuck yuck.

 

I bought Berkshire B, Palo Alto Networks, Mercado Libre (thinking of buying much more), Toronto Dominion Bank, and Disney.

 

Looking at many more.

 

But now an interesting issue has emerged.

 

Tesla.

 

I think it may be a great buy but I seriously hate and distrust Elon. Is that a reason to not buy it?

 

For example, I think some tobacco stocks are good but I won't buy them, but I would buy cannabis stocks. 

 

Another issue.

 

I've got the concept of you can't pick bottoms down well.

 

But I know from my history that my problem is more like I don't know when to sell when stocks go up (in long term scenarios).  They eventually go down but there is always the greed factor that they will go much higher, you wait, and then you lose what you had gained on paper. 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Jingthing

[Don Chance]

It is best to buy ETF's such as the SPY, QQQ, XBI, and China ASHR. Even EURO STOXX 50

 

ETF's are the safest because you never can never tell what will happen in the future with individual stocks such as META for example.

ETF's as mentioned you can be sure will eventually go up and get your money back, individual stocks, not so much.

If you want more bling go for leveraged spy or qqq. They can be more painful in the short run but hold their core value and recover the same as regular ETF's.

 

You can never call the exact bottom but look for a bottom to hit before you buy a trauch, such as SPY 350.

 

If you buy individual stock i suggest you always set a stop loss of 2-5%. And raise this as your profit increase.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Don Chance

[jaywalker2]

Market fundamentals haven't mattered much for some time as Central Bank policies have been driving the market. If the FED stops raising rates, the market will probably surge. If it continues tightening, expect more volatility,

 

Stocks aren't cheap but, as I said, nobody has cared about valuations in a long time except old timers. That said, I watched a podcast between Howard Marx and Joel Greenbatt. Marx was talking about how his investor son-in-law had convinced hm that valuations didn't matter for faangs because they were going to keep growing at 20 to 30 percent indefinitely.

 

Since then, Amazon has lost a trillion dollars in market cap. META is down 70 percent. The only faang that has held up fairly well is Apple, which is only down around 15 percent. Is Meta a bargain now? How about Amazon? I have no idea.

 

Chinese tech stocks have been killed even worse. The Shanghai stock market has surged 26 percent in the last couple of weeks and if history is any guide there's more to come.  But, as the man said, "Do you feel lucky, punk?" Look at all the people who have been wiped out buying tech and crypto and yet there still hasn't been any capitulation (as can be seen from this forum). That's what scares me.

Edited November 21, 2022 by jaywalker2

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, Don Chance said:

It is best to buy ETF's such as the SPY, QQQ, XBI, and China ASHR. Even EURO STOXX 50

 

ETF's are the safest because you never can never tell what will happen in the future with individual stocks such as META for example.

ETF's as mentioned you can be sure will eventually go up and get your money back, individual stocks, not so much.

If you want more bling go for leveraged spy or qqq. They can be more painful in the short run but hold their core value and recover the same as regular ETF's.

 

You can never call the exact bottom but look for a bottom to hit before you buy a trauch, such as SPY 350.

 

If you buy individual stock i suggest you always set a stop loss of 2-5%. And raise this as your profit increase.

Of course I haven't been suggesting ALL individual stocks  Yes indexes, etfs, sector etfs and optionally mutual funds. Also Berkshire is similar to an etf itself.

I must admit that a big part of my current interest in individual stocks is for hobby, sport, low key entertainment purposes. It's not like I'm putting half my money in one very speculative stock or anything like that.

 

For what it's worth though (nothing?) I have a gut feeling that Mercado Libre is destined to be a grand slam but it may take 10 or 20 years.

Edited November 21, 2022 by Jingthing

[Neeranam]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:48 PM, nigelforbes said:

OK, thanks for that, thanks for confirming what you are and are not. It makes my posting life that much easier since I don't have to give you the benefit of the doubt and don't have to bother opening your posts to see if you might ever say something useful.

 

Why are you bothered if you can't see his posts? Bizarre. 

[1FinickyOne]

On 11/1/2022 at 8:37 AM, Sparktrader said:

Who is Michael Burry?

maybe you know him by his nick name... "Pills Burry" - has lots of dough... 

[1FinickyOne]

On 11/21/2022 at 3:54 PM, Jingthing said:

Mercado Libre is destined to be a grand slam but it may take 10 or 20 years.

anything that takes 10-20 years, cannot be a grand slam... it is a walk, advancing on a fielders choice, an error and then a sacrifice fly... 

[1FinickyOne]

On 11/21/2022 at 5:57 AM, Jingthing said:

but I seriously hate and distrust Elon. Is that a reason to not buy it?

yes. 100% - - you have plenty of choices... why engage in what you dislike... buy coke, not Pepsi

[Adumbration]

Follow the data points:

 

1. There has not been a single time in recorded economic history were inflation was reversed with cash rates less than the CPI print.  CPI is still printing >8%.  Cash rate in US is <4%.

 

2. A lot of smart people are predicting a wave shape with inflation.  That is some cooling moving into the start of next year and then a resurgence in 2023.  Net result higher Fed rates for and extended period.

 

3. Do you want to invest before the war in Ukraine is resolved?  

 

4. Personally I have recommenced skim trading a junk bond fund.  I place GTC buy and sells just inside the lower and upper Bollinger bands.  My goal is to make two (or more) trades per month with a profit skim of 2% less brokerage fees.  If I can replicate that strategy over twelve months it will provide me with a yield of >48%.  I have already executed 2 buy and sells this month with a profit of 4.4% net.  The junk bond fund that I trade is currently priced circa 30cents below its NAV.  It also pays 7.2% per annum with distributions paid monthly.  Worse case scenario is that I get trapped in a skim trade but then I still get 7.2% on my money (paid monthly) until there is a sell opportunity.  I always use trailing stops to manage the risk of black swan event.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Adumbration