The S&P could fall as low as 3,000 points in 2023 - Morgan Stanley.

[Social Media]

Investors suffered a brutal 2022, with the S&P 500 tumbling 19% as the Federal Reserve cranked interest rates higher to smother inflation. But 2023 may offer up more misery, with a looming recession providing another dose of risk, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson. 

The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000 points, a decline of more than 20% from its current trading level of roughly 3,900 points, Wilson said in a YouTube discussion last month about his 2023 outlook. The main reason for that bearish forecast: U.S. corporate profits are likely to slump as the economy slows and perhaps enters a recession.

[rumak]

"Stocks COULD go up 20 % in 2023 " ............ Rumak

[ozimoron]

4 minutes ago, rumak said:

"Stocks COULD go up 20 % in 2023 " ............ Rumak

They could. If the money supply increased markedly or interest rates decreased. Or consumer confidence and consumption increased significantly. Or if corporate revenue increased significantly. Right now, most tech giants are shedding workers which indicates they expect declines in demand. Fewer workers also means a decline in consumption and consumer confidence.

[CharlieH]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

They could. If the money supply increased markedly or interest rates decreased. Or consumer confidence and consumption increased significantly. Or if corporate revenue increased significantly. Right now, most tech giants are shedding workers which indicates they expect declines in demand. Fewer workers also means a decline in consumption and consumer confidence.

A good example of which would be the 18000 job losses for Amazon.

[ozimoron]

If anyone's wondering, bitcoin tends to follow the S&P. If Morgan Stanley is right, expect the US dollar to get stronger too. Cash is king in a recession.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ozimoron

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, Black Ops said:

may

could, should, etc, etc, these are all predictions.

 

Yes there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, that said, if you are in and don't owe money on your stocks, and they are below what you paid for them, you have two choices:

 

1) Sell and take the hit by about March which might be the best 2023 has to offer (that's my guess with China now opening up again).

 

2) If you don't want to sell and your stocks are paying dividends, then just sit tight and keep collecting. Your stocks, depending on the strength of the companies you have invested in, will eventually bounce back, when, is another matter.

 

Now a loss is not a loss until you sell at a loss, that said, we can't take it with us.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2023 by 4MyEgo

[ozimoron]

Goldman Sachs is also laying off 3,200 workers from it's consumer brokerage business. Stocks be going down.

[StayinThailand2much]

Markets and market predictions always puzzle me. - If this was likely, why don't (professional) investors sell now (i.e. early)?

[itsari]

2 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Markets and market predictions always puzzle me. - If this was likely, why don't (professional) investors sell now (i.e. early)?

Markets puzzle 100 percent of investors , so do not feel alone 

[bkk6060]

The tax laws for stock sale losses are not friendly.  $3,000 a year is so low for all your sold stocks at a loss.

You can carry over the losses to future years but if I sold certain stocks now, I would be dead before I got full advantage of the write offs.

[ozimoron]

16 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

Markets and market predictions always puzzle me. - If this was likely, why don't (professional) investors sell now (i.e. early)?

They already did sell. Hence the massive drop to date. That said, many investment funds are required by their constitution to invest in stocks. They just try to pick the right stocks. A better solution would be to sell and buy bonds but many don't have that option. Then there are those investors who listen to buy and hold BS. An earlier point about dividend yielding stocks may be an exception.

 

Last quarter of 2020 was the time to sell when everybody was screaming "inflation".

Edited January 10, 2023 by ozimoron

[gargamon]

40 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

If anyone's wondering, bitcoin tends to follow the S&P

Sorry, nobody is wondering about bitcoin.

[ozimoron]

24 minutes ago, gargamon said:

Sorry, nobody is wondering about bitcoin.

why?

[ozimoron]

I would revise my outlook for the USD. I think inflation may have peaked and the Fed will slow the rate of interest rate rises. meantime, the US is likely to suffer a downturn in GDP while Asia and Europe will improve. That would be bearish for the US dollar. China is expected to increase its GDP by 6% this year so that would make AUD attractive. Commodity prices are also picking up, especially industrial metals. YEN has nowhere to go but up as well, having tanked last year, probably back to 110 which is where it normally sits.

 

source: Bloomberg cable TV.

Edited January 10, 2023 by ozimoron

[gargamon]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

why?

Bitcoin is dead/dying. It was a ponzi scheme. Suckers.

[Jingthing]

A big bull market will come eventually, either this year or next year. 

So arguably it's a great time to BUY stocks, but in my view, carefully selected stocks, and not indexes this time.

A big worry I now have is that the radical nihilistic republicans (the extremists like Gaetz) have taken over the US congress and they have permission now to attach conditions to national budget bills. They will, the conditions will be unacceptable (such as attacking Medicare and Social Security) and then they will shut down the government. This is not only a US problem as such an event or event will crash market globally. The good news I guess is that after they crash, what a great buying opportunity!

[2009]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

A big bull market will come eventually, either this year or next year. 

So arguably it's a great time to BUY stocks, but in my view, carefully selected stocks, and not indexes this time.

A big worry I now have is that the radical nihilistic republicans (the extremists like Gaetz) have taken over the US congress and they have permission now to attach conditions to national budget bills. They will, the conditions will be unacceptable (such as attacking Medicare and Social Security) and then they will shut down the government. This is not only a US problem as such an event or event will crash market globally. The good news I guess is that after they crash, what a great buying opportunity!

What stocks you like?

[RichardColeman]

4 hours ago, CharlieH said:

A good example of which would be the 18000 job losses for Amazon.

Jobs created when people could not go out and shop, now being lost when they can. Go figure !

[Jingthing]

21 minutes ago, 2009 said:

What stocks you like?

Many more but heres some. For buy and hold for years.

 

AMAZON!

 

BRKB

DIS

MELI

MSFT

PANW

TD

LLY

Edited January 10, 2023 by Jingthing

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

A big bull market will come eventually, either this year or next year. 

So arguably it's a great time to BUY stocks, but in my view, carefully selected stocks, and not indexes this time.

A big worry I now have is that the radical nihilistic republicans (the extremists like Gaetz) have taken over the US congress and they have permission now to attach conditions to national budget bills. They will, the conditions will be unacceptable (such as attacking Medicare and Social Security) and then they will shut down the government. This is not only a US problem as such an event or event will crash market globally. The good news I guess is that after they crash, what a great buying opportunity!

My guess is entirely different from yours.  In my opinion inflation will start to cool toward the end of this year but then there will be a second wave.  As a result interest rates will remain high and for longer than most people expect.  No sustained bull market this year or next, but rather, gut wrenching sideways down punctuated by a handful of bull trap rallies.  The cash rate this year will be at least 5.2%.  Why would anyone invest in the stockmarket when they can get a risk free 5-6% in T-bills.

 

And, of course, lets not forget the risk that Biden continues to double down on his bromance with Zelinsky to the extent they try to take back Crimea, that, of course, would end with Putin launching a tactical nuke targeting the penisula to create a fire wall against the US backed Ukraine counter offensive.

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, ozimoron said:

I would revise my outlook for the USD. I think inflation may have peaked and the Fed will slow the rate of interest rate rises. meantime, the US is likely to suffer a downturn in GDP while Asia and Europe will improve. That would be bearish for the US dollar. China is expected to increase its GDP by 6% this year so that would make AUD attractive. Commodity prices are also picking up, especially industrial metals. YEN has nowhere to go but up as well, having tanked last year, probably back to 110 which is where it normally sits.

 

source: Bloomberg cable TV.

The AUD is toast.  The RBA is already way behind on the interest rate curve and they will have to tread water for the first half of this year because some 40% of all mortgage holders in Australia are about to have their fixed interest 2% loans reset to 6-7%.  

 

Oh...and inflation has not peaked, it is just getting started.  This is just the first wave, and yes it will wane a little moving into this year, but the second wave will arrive early 2023.

[still kicking]

5 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

The AUD is toast.  The RBA is already way behind on the interest rate curve and they will have to tread water for the first half of this year because some 40% of all mortgage holders in Australia are about to have their fixed interest 2% loans reset to 6-7%.  

 

Oh...and inflation has not peaked, it is just getting started.  This is just the first wave, and yes it will wane a little moving into this year, but the second wave will arrive early 2023.

Why do you keep blabbering about Australian dollar this post has nothing to do with Australian dollar just keep that nonsense to your self 

[Adumbration]

4 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Why do you keep blabbering about Australian dollar this post has nothing to do with Australian dollar just keep that nonsense to your self 

At first it was just to give fair warning to other members on this forum and especially the broke ones like you relying on the Australian OAP. 

 

But now my primary motivation is the joy I get from seeing you all bent out of shape.

 

 

[still kicking]

3 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

At first it was just to give fair warning to other members on this forum and especially the broke ones like you relying on the Australian OAP. 

 

But now my primary motivation is the joy I get from seeing you all bent out of shape.

 

 

My OAP is $1140 how much is yours 

[Neeranam]

4 hours ago, ozimoron said:

why?

They don't know anything about it, like W. Buffet. 

Bitcoin against the S&P in 2023, I know where my money is. 

[Neeranam]

5 hours ago, ozimoron said:

Goldman Sachs is also laying off 3,200 workers from it's consumer brokerage business. Stocks be going down.

Goldman Sachs recently announced plans to spend tens of millions of dollars to purchase or invest in crypto firms, following the collapse of crypto exchange FTX, which dealt a significant blow to valuations and depressed investor interest.

 

https://bitcoinist.com/goldman-sachs-to-axe-thousands-of-staff/

[Jingthing]

China will come back somewhat but they are limited by the CCP. So as far as non western markets I think INDIA is the play. But I'm not sure the best way to invest in it. It's not as if I'm going to directly buy on an Indian stock exchange. 

 

As far as China BYD EV company Interests me.

[Jingthing]

As far as Ukraine if the west loses its resolve to help beat Russia, China will definitely invade Taiwan. Talk about WW3. 

[nigelforbes]

7 hours ago, Adumbration said:

My guess is entirely different from yours.  In my opinion inflation will start to cool toward the end of this year but then there will be a second wave.  As a result interest rates will remain high and for longer than most people expect.  No sustained bull market this year or next, but rather, gut wrenching sideways down punctuated by a handful of bull trap rallies.  The cash rate this year will be at least 5.2%.  Why would anyone invest in the stockmarket when they can get a risk free 5-6% in T-bills.

 

And, of course, lets not forget the risk that Biden continues to double down on his bromance with Zelinsky to the extent they try to take back Crimea, that, of course, would end with Putin launching a tactical nuke targeting the penisula to create a fire wall against the US backed Ukraine counter offensive.

What is your rationale for a second wave of inflation next year, what will be the catalyst for that, set the stage?

[nigelforbes]

6 hours ago, Jingthing said:

China will come back somewhat but they are limited by the CCP. So as far as non western markets I think INDIA is the play. But I'm not sure the best way to invest in it. It's not as if I'm going to directly buy on an Indian stock exchange. 

 

As far as China BYD EV company Interests me.

This is how I play India.

 

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F0GBR04H80&tab=3

 

But many people like to write off or dismiss China, for all the wrong reasons. The fact remains they are the worlds second largest economy by a significant margin. Not investing in China for bad reasons is a doubly bad idea. The typical recommendation for Western investors, investing in Emerging Markets, is no more than 15% of your holdings. I think there is a very strong case for Chinese holdings to represent a further 10%........perhaps not for the over 70's crowd or the faint hearted.

Edited January 10, 2023 by nigelforbes