Who will win the Thai election on May 14?

[h90]

33 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

If that’s the case, surely the elites with the big corporate supporters should easily win every elections. 

Future Forward and Thaksin are oligarchs. Prayut is more the old elites. So it is which part of the elites. But of course no poor honest person.

[herfiehandbag]

22 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And that is her only "qualification".

Unless of course she wins the most votes.

 

Ah, sorry, I forgot, not a concept you subscribe to there!

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, h90 said:

Future Forward and Thaksin are oligarchs. Prayut is more the old elites. So it is which part of the elites. But of course no poor honest person.

If they are oligarchs, they should be in better control of their fact like Prayut. Staging a coup is consider a minor wrongdoing if you in the right camp. 

[spidermike007]

23 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

And that is her only "qualification".

Well, let us not forget she comes from the only family that passed policy that benefitted the common man, in the recent history of Thailand. Perhaps, ever. 

 

At least with this party, there is a possibility of some good and beneficial policy happening. With Cha Cha or Prawit the chances of good policy are zero. It is more backwards movement and more of the same toxic cronyism. They are the nothing men. They are both empty suits. 

[OneMoreFarang]

18 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Well, let us not forget she comes from the only family that passed policy that benefitted the common man, in the recent history of Thailand. Perhaps, ever. 

 

At least with this party, there is a possibility of some good and beneficial policy happening. With Cha Cha or Prawit the chances of good policy are zero. It is more backwards movement and more of the same toxic cronyism. They are the nothing men. They are both empty suits. 

I see it slightly different.

She comes from the Shinawatra family and we can be sure she will follow the orders of the criminal fugitive.

His behavior triggered already two coups. What will happen if the little daughter does the same again. Will history be repeated? I fear yes. 

[AgMech Cowboy]

On 3/22/2023 at 4:59 PM, snoop1130 said:

The Shinawatra-backed parties have won every election in the past 2 decades and are set to win the 2023 election, potentially in a landslide.

I guess you answered your own question.

[stoutfella]

Is that a serious question? I thought it was a foregone conclusion.

[BangkokReady]

On 3/22/2023 at 8:01 PM, dinsdale said:

Who wins and who is the PM are two different things. The senate is crucial to either some sort of peace or a total revolt by the populice. Interesting really how the corrupt cronies in the senate will decide the near future of Thailand.

What do you think the alternative could be?  Suppose that the people are allowed to truly vote for whomever they want, and the majority of poor farmers vote for someone who will make things difficult for the wealthy elite.  What would happen then?

 

Suppose, for sake of argument, the rest of Thailand votes for someone who decides to heavily tax the wealthy elite who earn most of the money in Bangkok and then distribute the tax income amongst the poor in the provinces.  This obviously isn't fair and it could have catastrophic consequences for the economy, but it could easily be voted for by a poor majority who have little understanding of economics.

 

There isn't a democracy in the world where the elite don't have some say in how the country is run.

[Gknrd]

Different but same same.

[still kicking]

Already decided.

[SatEng]

My honest take on this is I expect that nobody will win.

By this I mean I expect that PT - possibly in conjunction with another party - will have the majority in the parliament but that their candidate will not be accepted by the senate who will vote for Prawit/Prayut - BhumJaiThai will swing whichever ways benefits them financially.

This will lead to a stalemate with a PM chosen from the minority who cannot pass any laws in parliament and vetoes any from the opposition.

No chance of a compromise candidate - No chance of any negotiation - rising tension and no progress for two years until a new senate has to be sworn in - and at this time there will be another coup.

[mania]

7 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I see it slightly different.

She comes from the Shinawatra family and we can be sure she will follow the orders.............................What will happen if the little daughter does the same again. Will history be repeated? I fear yes. 

Well that blows your previous "And that is her only "qualification". " comment away then doesn't it

Because if what you now say is true then basically the qualification is now previously being a PM that helped many with health care scheme etc

 

About any behavior triggering coup's that is far from the truth

Truth is the treasonous military & police work for the elites that hire them to overthrow over & over the country of Thailand. Remember coups have been happening long before any Shinawatra

 

 

The treasonous Military & Police of Thailand are jockeys who think they own the horse

The real owners the Thai people themselves need to end this once & for all. If it is by force/revolution so be it.

Freedom in any country was never gained or kept easily

Edited March 23, 2023 by mania

[OneMoreFarang]

55 minutes ago, mania said:

Well that blows your previous "And that is her only "qualification". " comment away then doesn't it

Because if what you now say is true then basically the qualification is now previously being a PM that helped many with health care scheme etc

 

About any behavior triggering coup's that is far from the truth

Truth is the treasonous military & police work for the elites that hire them to overthrow over & over the country of Thailand. Remember coups have been happening long before any Shinawatra

 

 

The treasonous Military & Police of Thailand are jockeys who think they own the horse

The real owners the Thai people themselves need to end this once & for all. If it is by force/revolution so be it.

Freedom in any country was never gained or kept easily

The fact that you group the military & police together is hilarious.

Does the term tomato police mean anything to you? You can look it up. 

 

And her qualification is still not existent. But maybe you think following orders from her criminal father is a valid qualification. 

[mania]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

The fact that you group the military & police together is hilarious.

And her qualification is still not existent. But maybe you think following orders from her criminal father is a valid qualification. 

The Police who did nothing before the coup when voters were not allowed to vote? Or when the rabble overran govt house?

100% in league with the Military & following orders which would then supposedly give the military no choice<sic> but to step in

& once again save <sic> Thailand from itself.

 

All orchestrated

No government can survive if the Military & police do not do their jobs or follow the orders of the elected government

 

About qualifications don't blame me for your contradictions  ????

Edited March 23, 2023 by mania

[ikke1959]

I really hope that Move Forward will be the winners, but in the always vote buying and manipulated elections it will be probably Pheu THai and / or other current Government parties that will score high. as we have seen several years back too when suddenly out of nothing a few hundred thousand votes were added to PPRP.

[h90]

16 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

If they are oligarchs, they should be in better control of their fact like Prayut. Staging a coup is consider a minor wrongdoing if you in the right camp. 

There was almost civil war (or some say it was already civil war) we knew a guy who lost his foot, and everyone know the pictures of the guy who lost his hand.
Staging a peaceful coup and than after stabilization doing new elections is preferable to have a real civil war. First loosing tourism and than the whole economic would be a far bigger problem than ousting some corrupt oligarch.
And population saw it as minor wrongdoing as well because Prayut afterwards won the majority of votes from the population.

[BobBKK]

1 minute ago, h90 said:

There was almost civil war (or some say it was already civil war) we knew a guy who lost his foot, and everyone know the pictures of the guy who lost his hand.
Staging a peaceful coup and than after stabilization doing new elections is preferable to have a real civil war. First loosing tourism and than the whole economic would be a far bigger problem than ousting some corrupt oligarch.
And population saw it as minor wrongdoing as well because Prayut afterwards won the majority of votes from the population.

No he didn't - please research

 

[h90]

15 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Well, let us not forget she comes from the only family that passed policy that benefitted the common man, in the recent history of Thailand. Perhaps, ever. 

 

At least with this party, there is a possibility of some good and beneficial policy happening. With Cha Cha or Prawit the chances of good policy are zero. It is more backwards movement and more of the same toxic cronyism. They are the nothing men. They are both empty suits. 

The only family.....So all but Thaksin are evil? And he is a saint?

[h90]

1 minute ago, BobBKK said:

No he didn't - please research

 

What he didn't?

[BobBKK]

Just now, h90 said:

What he didn't?

Sudarat and Thanatorn won 16m votes Prayut won half that and there are serious doubts it was all kosher.

[IvorBiggun2]

4 minutes ago, BobBKK said:

No he didn't - please research

Kettle & pot springs to mind.

[h90]

1 minute ago, BobBKK said:

Sudarat and Thanatorn won 16m votes Prayut won half that and there are serious doubts it was all kosher.

that are two different parties

Phalang Pracharat: 8,433,137

Pheu Thai: 7.920.630

Future Forward: 6,265,950

 

So he got by far the most votes and 7.9+6.2 is not 16
Yes it was not kosher because of massive vote buying from Pheu Thai. But really all are vote buying in Thailand but Pheu Thai has the deepest pocket.

[BobBKK]

3 minutes ago, IvorBiggun2 said:

Kettle & pot springs to mind.

 

Just now, h90 said:

that are two different parties

Phalang Pracharat: 8,433,137

Pheu Thai: 7.920.630

Future Forward: 6,265,950

 

So he got by far the most votes and 7.9+6.2 is not 16
Yes it was not kosher because of massive vote buying from Pheu Thai. But really all are vote buying in Thailand but Pheu Thai has the deepest pocket.

You misrepresent - Prayut only won by combining votes and doing deals with friends - PT won more seats. That is a FACT. The opposition, combined, had double the popular vote. You are a closet Prayut apologist - we all know it was fixed.

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, h90 said:

The only family.....So all but Thaksin are evil? And he is a saint?

No. Of course not. But, he is the only one in recent Thai history who has done anything to benefit the common man. The goodwill from that cannot be over estimated. Universal health care represented the first time many Thais had access to health care that did not cause bankruptcy. 

 

What has the current crop of goons done for the people lately? It is always a choice between inferior choices in politics. Prayuth or Prawit are hugely inferior to even Justin Bieber. 

Edited March 24, 2023 by spidermike007

[Goat]

19 hours ago, h90 said:

Last election:

Popular vote
Pheu Thai: 7,920,630

 Palang Pracharat 8,433,137

That are 500.000 more votes for Prayut.
Thaksin did vote buying like never before and most of the middle class hate him. Also the complete south hate him. Of course also many people mostly North and North East love him, but by no means "Thais" in general.

Fake figures. Pheu Thai was told they had to divide up then they banned the other half.

And also banned their prized candidate earlier. 

And a whole lot of other sneaky tricks.

PT won 137 seats. 

PP won 97.

Prayut did not get a single vote. Nobody voted for him because he didnt run. PP nominated him after the election.

 

[Goat]

On 3/22/2023 at 5:45 PM, OneMoreFarang said:

And that is her only "qualification".

Highly educated and part of a very successful business family.

More qualified to run the economy than a soldier.

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, h90 said:

that are two different parties

Phalang Pracharat: 8,433,137

Pheu Thai: 7.920.630

Future Forward: 6,265,950

 

So he got by far the most votes and 7.9+6.2 is not 16
Yes it was not kosher because of massive vote buying from Pheu Thai. But really all are vote buying in Thailand but Pheu Thai has the deepest pocket.

Please explain why Pheu Thai lost if they have the deepest pocket. Thanks. 

[OneMoreFarang]

7 minutes ago, Goat said:

part of a very successful business family.

And also part of a family of convicted criminals.

And it is obvious that she will work for the criminal head of the family.

Edited March 24, 2023 by OneMoreFarang

[herfiehandbag]

12 hours ago, BangkokReady said:

Suppose, for sake of argument, the rest of Thailand votes for someone who decides to heavily tax the wealthy elite who earn most of the money in Bangkok and then distribute the tax income amongst the poor in the provinces.  This obviously isn't fair and it could have catastrophic consequences for the economy, but it could easily be voted for by a poor majority who have little understanding of economics.

 

There is a school of thought ( although I would hazard a guess that you don't subscribe to it), which is very widely held, not just amongst the poor, that since the "very wealthy in Bangkok" have almost invariably made their wealth at the expense of the poorer members of society, taxing them highly ( or at least realistically, proportionally) would be fair.

[h90]

3 hours ago, BobBKK said:

 

You misrepresent - Prayut only won by combining votes and doing deals with friends - PT won more seats. That is a FACT. The opposition, combined, had double the popular vote. You are a closet Prayut apologist - we all know it was fixed.

I think you have a serious problem understanding a multi party system. He won the popular vote and he has with his coalition partners the majority in the parliament. You need a majority and he has a majority. To be premier it would be good optics to have the majority of votes..he has the majority of votes. That is the fact even if you don't like him.
I neither like nor hate him. I think he did little the last years which I as libertarian prefer over some dictatorial style, like Thaksin. But he didn't reverse the many nonsense of Thaksin so I am really agnostic.