UK to be one of worst performing economies this year, predicts IMF

[RayC]

11 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

No, the Remainers claim was that UK's financial business/district would all move to Frankfurt or other European cities and the City(of London) would cease to be a major player in the financial World post Brexit and many business would leave the UK and relocate to Europe .

   See above for what happened 

 

 

"London beats rivals with world’s best-performing major stock market

FTSE 100 is only top index to deliver a gain for investors in miserable year"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/12/30/london-beats-rivals-worlds-best-performing-major-stock-market/

And yet (behind a paywall but the gist of the message is clear)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-22/london-stock-market-is-now-250-billion-smaller-than-paris#xj4y7vzkg?leadSource=uverify wall

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

You literally just dismissed forecasts as little more than guesses.

Your optimism that something will spring from nothing will be cold comfort to people up and down the UK who are experiencing the negative effects of brexit.

The UK is doing better than many countries and forecasts are guesses. Just fancy ones with spreadsheets. Some people get rich in recessions so forecasts don't really matter if you do your own thing.

[candide]

10 minutes ago, bignok said:

History is fact. Take the average 10 year growth rate and project forward. Buffet does that with shares.

How do the current trend look like?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

[RayC]

2 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

That is a link to the prediction. Not a link to how they came up with the figures.

The methodology and assumptions behind the IMF's predictions should be in the full report(s) which can be downloaded from their website.

[bignok]

1 minute ago, candide said:

How do the current trend look like?

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

Looks good time to buy assets. Buy low sell high the old cliche.

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, RayC said:

The methodology and assumptions behind the IMF's predictions should be in the full report(s) which can be downloaded from their website.

And the assumptions can be picked apart.

[youreavinalaff]

28 minutes ago, RayC said:

Yet Brexiters will never tell us when the Brexit' benefits are expected to kick in and how long the payback period will be. It's all 'Manana'.

As Chomper said himself " it's the long term that matters"

[Phulublub]

10 hours ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

London being the best performing financial district in the World , is completely relevant to my point that Remainers were wrong about the predicted  future demise of the UK financial district 

The demise has only just begun, but begun it has.  Unlike the extra £350 million a week for the NHS and other such tosh the gullible were fed.

 

PH

[RayC]

7 minutes ago, bignok said:

And the assumptions can be picked apart.

Go ahead then

[bignok]

Just now, RayC said:

Go ahead then

No need. Just look at their track record.

[RuamRudy]

Just now, youreavinalaff said:

As Chomper said himself " it's the long term that matters"

No, it's not the long term that matters.

 

Maybe show a little humility and acknowledge that there are many people suffering real hardship today; there are many good businesses going broke or already have gone broke because some people believed the lies of a Russian financed snake oil salesman who peddled jingoism.

 

Talk about the future when you have a plan. At the moment all you have are blinkers.

[RayC]

3 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

As Chomper said himself " it's the long term that matters"

As Keynes is often misquoted as saying: "In the long term we are all dead"

[stevenl]

23 minutes ago, bignok said:

How can it be most likely if forecasts are most often wrong?

 

It is their educated guess on what they think is most likely, not actual most likely. Just a educated guess based on spreadsheet forecasts. One forecast on top of other forecasts.

 

Nothing factual about forecasts.

Yes, it's an educated guess. Your dismissal of the forecast though is not doing justice to the importance of this educated guess.

[Phulublub]

20 minutes ago, transam said:

And be stuck in the hands of others, no, thank you........????

We've taken back control doncha know?

 

Loooook....Our Passports are now Blue again (loud cheers). 

 

That they are made in Poland (in the EU) by a French-Duth (both in the EU) firm when the previous Burgundy passports were made by DeLaRue (UK firm) just highlights the utter lunacy of Brexit.

 

PH

[bignok]

5 minutes ago, RayC said:

As Keynes is often misquoted as saying: "In the long term we are all dead"

We will be. Life has always be challenging. Life was simple before. Now we have 100 options. A simple life is best I believe. 

[RayC]

6 minutes ago, bignok said:

No need. Just look at their track record.

Liverpool drew their last match therefore they will draw their next match. 

 

No need to consider who they are playing, what players are injured, etc.

[bignok]

Just now, stevenl said:

Yes, it's an educated guess. Your dismissal of the forecast though is not doing justice to the importance of this educated guess.

Given their poor track record on forecasts I don't place any faith in their educated guesses and neither does any economist I know.

 

 

 

https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/Backchannels/2013/0606/IMF-admits-it-got-Greece-wrong.-What-does-it-get-right

 

(Better off doing your own forecasts)

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, RayC said:

Liverpool drew their last match therefore they will draw their next match. 

 

No need to consider who they are playing, what players are injured, etc.

That makes no sense. The track record isnt measured over 1 match or 1 quarter. 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, bignok said:

https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer/unreliable-forecaster-the-imf-says-aussie-outlook-is-dismal/

 

IMF is known for being wrong.

In terms of the UK the IMF is known for bailing out the Bank of England the last time the UK was the ‘sick man of Europe’.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Chomper Higgot

[RayC]

30 minutes ago, transam said:

And be stuck in the hands of others, no, thank you........????

We've trodden this path many times before, Trans.

 

If you believe having the ability to change the 3% of EU law, which the UK voted against, has been worth the past 6.5 years (and counting) of chaos and economic decline then fair enough. Far too big a price for me.

[bignok]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

In terms of the UK the IMF is known for bailing out the Bank of England the last time the UK was the ‘sick man of Europe’.

Which is not related to future economy.

[youreavinalaff]

16 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

No, it's not the long term that matters.

Don't tell Chomper. 555

[Chomper Higgot]

21 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

As Chomper said himself " it's the long term that matters"

I actually said something a bit more than that, but you chose to cherry pick.

 

I wonder why?

 

 

3 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The UK economy suffers long term problems of low productivity, low investment and low growth, tariffs and bureaucracy between the UK and it’s most important trading partners are recent additions.

Short term fluctuations might attract attention but it’s the long term trend that matters.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, youreavinalaff said:

Don't tell Chomper. 555

Don’t truncate Chomper to misrepresent my posts.

[RayC]

6 minutes ago, bignok said:

That makes no sense. The track record isnt measured over 1 match or 1 quarter. 

 

 

I agree  That's my point. 

 

My football analogy makes as little sense as saying that the IMF's current forecast should be disregarded simply because they have got things wrong in the past. The reasons why the forecasts were incorrect are important (as are the current assumptions).

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, bignok said:

Which is not related to future economy.

But it is something the IMF is ‘known for’ and nobody is ‘known for’ the future.

[Chomper Higgot]

6 minutes ago, RayC said:

We've trodden this path many times before, Trans.

 

If you believe having the ability to change the 3% of EU law, which the UK voted against, has been worth the past 6.5 years (and counting) of chaos and economic decline then fair enough. Far too big a price for me.

Not even 3%.

 

Another Brexit fail:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/apr/09/tories-in-retreat-from-brexit-bill-to-scrap-thousands-of-eu-laws

[bignok]

Just now, RayC said:

I agree  That's my point. 

 

My football analogy makes as little sense as saying that the IMF's current forecast should be disregarded simply because they have got things wrong in the past. The reasons why the forecasts were incorrect are important (as are the current assumptions).

I disagree. 1 football match is nothing much. 30 years of forecasts is a lot. You aren't comparing like for like. If Liverpool had 30 poor years would you say they had a good record? No.

 

Anyway happy Songkran.

[bignok]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

But it is something the IMF is ‘known for’ and nobody is ‘known for’ the future.

Maybe why they were formed. To bail out countries. Stabalise the world economy to stop depressions like 1929 to 1935.

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, bignok said:

Maybe why they were formed. To bail out countries. Stabalise the world economy to stop depressions like 1929 to 1935.

Maybe the fact the IMF bailed out the UK the last time it was the ‘sick man of Europe’ is something we should all remember.