Thailand’s General Election: Can the Winner Really Take All?

[webfact]

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the leading prime ministerial candidate of the opposition Pheu Thai Party, speaks at a campaign rally on March 30, 2023. Credit: Facebook/Ing Shinawatra

 

The opposition Pheu Thai Party is well placed to win the May 14 polls. But will it be able to form government?

 

By Punchada Sirivunnabood

On April 5, Thailand’s opposition Pheu Thai Party announced at a rally that the party would not join the pro-military Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) in forming a coalition government after next month’s general election, despite rumors to the contrary.

 

The party was aiming to reassure supporters and stated that its goal was to win at least 310 of the 500 seats in Parliament. Many polls report that Pheu Thai is the most popular choice to lead the government, with at least 35 percent support.

 

The question remains, however, whether the party can form a one-party government or even obtain the prime minister’s seat. Despite its likelihood of emerging with the largest share of parliamentary seats – the party and its predecessors have done so in every Thai election since 2001 – the party will face many challenges in forming the government, including the fact the 250 unelected senators will vote to elect the next prime minister, and are unlikely to support Pheu Thai’s chosen candidate, given the party’s association with exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

 

According to the 2017 Constitution, prime ministerial candidates are not required to run for election. Political parties can nominate up to three candidates with the Election Commission of Thailand before election day.

 

Full story: https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/thailands-general-election-can-the-winner-really-take-all/

 

-- © Copyright The Diplomat 2023-04-21

 

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[Pique Dard]

"Thailand’s General Election: Can the Winner Really Take All?" 

 

ask prayut, the incumbent prime minister! his answer will be: oh yeah, for sure!

[OneMoreFarang]

If anybody has the absolute majority in politics, then they have the right to rule.

But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution.

 

And the politicians are still subjects to the laws. If they do something unlawful, then they should be prosecuted and convicted. That seems to be a problem in Thailand.

[sidneybear]

Déjà vu. Fast forward a few months and we'll see yellow shirts on the streets, then Pheu Thai kicked out, then a coup, then back to the start. 

[herfiehandbag]

Put simply, no.

 

The "established governing class" now have a built in control over the senate, control of the judicial machinery and the electoral machinery. By convention they have a generous amount of time before the results are declared. They will use this to count, recount and count again to get the result they want - a definition of proportional representation perhaps? They will interpret, barr, ban, disqualify and ignore ballots to get the result they want. If an unsuitable party after all that, has an overwhelming majority; well, as you may know the election of a new Pope is announced by white smoke over the Vatican. Here the emergence of a new Prime Minister can be announced by blue diesel smoke from the tank parks of barracks around Bangkok!

 

The eventual outcome may be decided by whether the people are prepared to have their electoral decision rebuffed again.

Edited April 21, 2023 by herfiehandbag

[dinsdale]

Need 50% + 1 otherwise a coalition needs to be formed. The 250 unelected senators also pose a problem for the choice of PM and of course a coupt can never be ruled out. 

[Henryford]

I doubt any Party (or even coalition) will get the required 376 seats. All Prayut (and pals) need is 126 seats. Yes he will take it all.

[Toolong]

5 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

Put simply, no.

 

The "established governing class" now have a built in control over the senate, control of the judicial machinery and the electoral machinery. By convention they have a generous amount of time before the results are declared. They will use this to count, recount and count again to get the result they want - a definition of proportional representation perhaps? They will interpret, barr, ban, disqualify and ignore ballots to get the result they want. If an unsuitable party after all that, has an overwhelming majority; well, as you may know the election of a new Pope is announced by white smoke over the Vatican. Here the emergence of a new Prime Minister can be announced by blue diesel smoke from the tank parks of barracks around Bangkok!

 

The eventual outcome may be decided by whether the people are prepared to have their electoral decision rebuffed again.

Well said. And - bar the imaginative allusion to Vatican white smoke!???? - a true enough summary of how it is, has always been...and will likely be yet again.

 

What you mean by 'eventual outcome'  clearly (imo, anyway) points to an uprising against perceived electoral fraud & judicially-manipulated power-grabbing by those currently incumbent parties with the power to use foul means not fair to do so.

Such an uprising will, I think (if it happens), be distinct from others in recent decades, in one particular regard: a move away from 'colour camps'....red, yellow, orange, etc.....towards a more common cause. 

And I think that cause is a sense of, 'No, we've really had enough of this ****!'

[heybruce]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

If anybody has the absolute majority in politics, then they have the right to rule.

But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution.

 

And the politicians are still subjects to the laws. If they do something unlawful, then they should be prosecuted and convicted. That seems to be a problem in Thailand.

"But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution."

 

Unless they seize power in a coup.

[MrMojoRisin]

1 hour ago, Henryford said:

I doubt any Party (or even coalition) will get the required 376 seats. All Prayut (and pals) need is 126 seats. Yes he will take it all.

What good is a PM in command of 126 lower house seats? They will lose every house vote, not pass any legislation and be unable to avoid continued censorship.

If the forces of evil are unable to command  251 lower house seats the Senate will not support their PM candidate. There is a reason Prayuth and Prawit have parted ways.

 

 

[smedly]

2 hours ago, sidneybear said:

Déjà vu. Fast forward a few months and we'll see yellow shirts on the streets, then Pheu Thai kicked out, then a coup, then back to the start. 

I think you are right but I don't think the Thai people are as divided as they were before - IMO they will not tolerate another coup

 

I also hope that those that take over will fully investsigate the current mob for serious corruption and lock them all up

 

had to laugh at Anutin who actually thought he was popular with the people, just shows how out of touch and delusional this fool is, Anutin bye bye  - what was the last poll ................. 1.5% support lol

[smedly]

1 hour ago, MrMojoRisin said:

What good is a PM in command of 126 lower house seats? They will lose every house vote, not pass any legislation and be unable to avoid continued censorship.

If the forces of evil are unable to command  251 lower house seats the Senate will not support their PM candidate. There is a reason Prayuth and Prawit have parted ways.

 

 

there is a solution - another constitution change (which I support) and put it to the people in a referendum - wipe out the senate and restore democracy - as it is right now these #### rs still hold the power no matter the result of an election - that is just not how it works

[hotchilli]

8 hours ago, webfact said:

the party will face many challenges in forming the government, including the fact the 250 unelected senators will vote to elect the next prime minister

Which is totally wrong.

The party with the largest majority should elect it's own PM

Nothing to do with the rigged senate.

[sidneybear]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

I think you are right but I don't think the Thai people are as divided as they were before - IMO they will not tolerate another coup

 

I also hope that those that take over will fully investsigate the current mob for serious corruption and lock them all up

 

had to laugh at Anutin who actually thought he was popular with the people, just shows how out of touch and delusional this fool is, Anutin bye bye  - what was the last poll ................. 1.5% support lol

Well, all those pot smokers are in for a rude awakening if Thaksin's lot get back in. Funny how all the junta huggers on this forum have disappeared too.

[sidneybear]

3 hours ago, smedly said:

I don't think the Thai people are as divided as they were before - IMO they will not tolerate another coup

Hope springs eternal. People have been saying that after all the coups I've lived through. Thailand has its own way of keeping itself on an even keel.

[herfiehandbag]

5 hours ago, MrMojoRisin said:

What good is a PM in command of 126 lower house seats? They will lose every house vote, not pass any legislation and be unable to avoid continued censorship.

If the forces of evil are unable to command  251 lower house seats the Senate will not support their PM candidate. There is a reason Prayuth and Prawit have parted ways.

 

 

They will need to find justification for a state of emergency.

 

Not in itself a problem...

[ThailandRyan]

8 hours ago, sidneybear said:

Déjà vu. Fast forward a few months and we'll see yellow shirts on the streets, then Pheu Thai kicked out, then a coup, then back to the start. 

Can you see into the future with the Deja Vu?  Do you really think that with Thailand still struggling in it's current recovery of tourism that if what you say may happen the country will not loose more tourists and the economy will tank? I mean that's my view as to what could occur if as you say its becomes a rinse and repeat scenario......

[candide]

10 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Put simply, no.

 

The "established governing class" now have a built in control over the senate, control of the judicial machinery and the electoral machinery. By convention they have a generous amount of time before the results are declared. They will use this to count, recount and count again to get the result they want - a definition of proportional representation perhaps? They will interpret, barr, ban, disqualify and ignore ballots to get the result they want. If an unsuitable party after all that, has an overwhelming majority; well, as you may know the election of a new Pope is announced by white smoke over the Vatican. Here the emergence of a new Prime Minister can be announced by blue diesel smoke from the tank parks of barracks around Bangkok!

 

The eventual outcome may be decided by whether the people are prepared to have their electoral decision rebuffed again.

They also control all the agencies and commissions, I.e. the NAAC. Even in case they cannot prevent PT from winning, they can use one the numerous mechanisms built in the constitution to oust it.

[NoshowJones]

11 hours ago, sidneybear said:

Déjà vu. Fast forward a few months and we'll see yellow shirts on the streets, then Pheu Thai kicked out, then a coup, then back to the start. 

I am not sure about another coup, I don't think the Thai people would stand for that, especially the younger ones.

[hotandsticky]

11 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

I am not sure about another coup, I don't think the Thai people would stand for that, especially the younger ones.

The Thai people would do sweet FA like they have done in the past.

 

A bit of Thaksin funded insurrection maybe. You may wish for a pitch-fork uprising, but it isn't going to happen.

[NoshowJones]

1 minute ago, hotandsticky said:

The Thai people would do sweet FA like they have done in the past.

 

A bit of Thaksin funded insurrection maybe. You may wish for a pitch-fork uprising, but it isn't going to happen.

No one can be really sure about anything, I wonder what would have happened if there was no covid when the last protests were ongoing. 

If it wasn't for covid, would the government have survived? They were very quick to bring out a law which forbade any crowding.

[Enoon]

30 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

The Thai people would do sweet FA like they have done in the past.

 

A bit of Thaksin funded insurrection maybe. You may wish for a pitch-fork uprising, but it isn't going to happen.

 

Always read the small print:

 

"Past product performance is not a guarantee of future returns"

 

 

Edited April 21, 2023 by Enoon

[zzaa09]

11 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

If anybody has the absolute majority in politics, then they have the right to rule.

But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution.

 

And the politicians are still subjects to the laws. If they do something unlawful, then they should be prosecuted and convicted. That seems to be a problem in Thailand.

Yet, it's the traditional rulers [aka, the crooks and criminals] that continuously rewrite/modify such laws and constitution[s] to fit and better themselves......always manipulated to maintain the deepest status quo. 

 

It's a cycle that appears to be impossible to break. 

[Enoon]

12 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

If anybody has the absolute majority in politics, then they have the right to rule.

But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution.

 

And the politicians are still subjects to the laws. If they do something unlawful, then they should be prosecuted and convicted. That seems to be a problem in Thailand.

You're talking about a country that welcomed a WW2  collaborator/dictator leader back as Prime Minister a few years later.

 

Such people were hung in Europe after WW2.

 

And you would be quite happy to see the rule of the current ****bags extended....by any means.

 

So quit the.......

 

 

 

 

[OneMoreFarang]

58 minutes ago, Enoon said:

You're talking about a country that welcomed a WW2  collaborator/dictator leader back as Prime Minister a few years later.

 

Such people were hung in Europe after WW2.

 

And you would be quite happy to see the rule of the current ****bags extended....by any means.

 

So quit the.......

If you want to say something, then say it. What's the point of *** and ... ? 

If you want to be ruled by the criminal fugitive that is not my problem. 

[greeneking]

13 hours ago, heybruce said:

"But obviously they still have to follow the laws and the constitution."

 

Unless they seize power in a coup.

The usual quandary.......must you obey bad laws?  And rigged constitutions?

[heybruce]

9 hours ago, sidneybear said:

Hope springs eternal. People have been saying that after all the coups I've lived through. Thailand has its own way of keeping itself on an even keel.

"even keel"?  Is that the euphemism for autocracy and repression?

[sidneybear]

11 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Can you see into the future with the Deja Vu?  Do you really think that with Thailand still struggling in it's current recovery of tourism that if what you say may happen the country will not loose more tourists and the economy will tank? I mean that's my view as to what could occur if as you say its becomes a rinse and repeat scenario......

Thailand has much more to its economy than tourism. 

[sidneybear]

3 hours ago, heybruce said:

"even keel"?  Is that the euphemism for autocracy and repression?

Most countries practice autocracy and repression these days, in one way or another, so it's a bit unfair to single out Thailand. 

[sidneybear]

9 hours ago, NoshowJones said:

I am not sure about another coup, I don't think the Thai people would stand for that, especially the younger ones.

The young will be sent for "attitude adjustment" in army camps, or forcefully cleared from the streets, just like every time before. It's a ritual that goes back many decades. Maybe it's not a bad thing - who wants Thailand to be like the West? People move to Thailand because it's different, right?