Thailand shakes up golden visa scheme, hikes prices by up to 500 per cent

[Adumbration]

3 hours ago, bob smith said:

could you explain to me why anyone would pay 5 million baht for a visa that you can get legally for 1,900 baht at immigration? 

Not for long.

[DavisH]

2 hours ago, Trippy said:

If not 50 yet, they don't qualify.

Get married, get a job or set up a business. That is what most of us do. The TE visa is not geared towards us on non-O or non-B or retirees. I doubt even digital nomads would spend this kind of money. 

[Adumbration]

1 hour ago, retarius said:

What are the absolute numbers. Over a lifetime of business, I have seen that people use percentages when the absolute sales numbers are not very impressive. 

Very astute question.  A 400 % increase in sales means nothing if the increase was from 50 visa pa to 200 pa.

[xtrnuno41]

OK this was step one.

Next step is too raise all other visa to 19000 baht for extension and having bank account of 1.2 million baht.

Being married, just double 800 k baht. Income method? You must have at least 130 kbaht/month.

Let's get it on !

[GypsyT]

How old I could adopt legally?

Is 18 or 19 or 20 Ok?

[alyx]

5 hours ago, Ralf001 said:

Each yearly extension costs Bt.500,000 ?

Holders of the Reserve Card can keep the good times rolling with five-year extensions, each at a mere 10 per cent of the Reserve card’s current value when they decide to extend.

[Ralf001]

1 minute ago, alyx said:

Holders of the Reserve Card can keep the good times rolling with five-year extensions, each at a mere 10 per cent of the Reserve card’s current value when they decide to extend.

Yeah... my eyes aint painted on, does that mean 500k for yearly extension.

[zzaa09]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Since they cannot attract much in the way of wealthy ex-pats due to a dozen good reasons why those with wealth choose other nations over Thailand, might as well hike the fees. That is a long standing Thai tradition. When demand is low, raise the prices. Just common sense, right?

This elite visa never scam never did get off the ground as they were hopeful it might. Bit of a white elephant all around.

Since their ever evolving mindset is obsessed with modifications of visa schemes and overwhelming bureaucracy, we might expect draconian measures - across the board - regarding all visa statuses.....from tourist type to the resident variety. Bet on it. 

 

The Thai authorities have been overly preoccupied with how they can bundle visa schemes, since Thaksin's days. 

Process and procedures have become increasingly malignant over the last couple of decades....almost xenophobic in nature - especially regarding the non-O/O-A/O-X variety and the uttered nonsense it entangles. 

 

The mused rumours that the current incoming [mafia] government might see their way of greatly reducing the bureaucratic stranglehold that incumber resident visas is just talk. Appears that all is set in stone and they're not budging. 

 

Some of us crustier old hands remember yesteryear when long-tern resident visas and regulations were a breeze and BS-free. Ah.....the good old days. 

 

[MrMojoRisin]

4 hours ago, bob smith said:

could you explain to me why anyone would pay 5 million baht for a visa that you can get legally for 1,900 baht at immigration? 

Rich Chinese / Russians etc. fleeing their homelands.
 

5 million baht to effectively buy citizenship (the right to live in Thailand) is a bargain.

[MrMojoRisin]

55 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

Very astute question.  A 400 % increase in sales means nothing if the increase was from 50 visa pa to 200 pa.

FY 22 had over 5500 applications approved.

[Gaccha]

One can see a reason for an anticipated surge in applicants:

 

"Update for Chinese Nationals: Chinese nationals will no longer need to be routed through Interpol for approval. This implies they can expect shorter waiting times, enhancing their experience with Thailand Privilege."  [Source] 

 

But for people who are not active members of international crime gangs, the benefits of the new offers are less clear. 

 

The New:

 

 

The Old:

 

 

[aldriglikvid]

7 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

FY 22 had over 5500 applications approved.

As mentioned in my post at page 2, the TPC chairman said last week that they have reached +40 000 active members in July (the number was 6k in 2019). Moreover, August to September is not included in that number - and since it's the last 2 months to apply for the new price increase; the applicants are in the thousands. To call this scheme "not successful" or "not impressive" is everyone's right, indeed, - but it has little bearing with actual reality. 

[Hunz Kittisak]

Recent worldwide arrests of China linked scamming and money laundering syndicates. Many of the members hold Thai Elite memberships 

[alyx]

26 minutes ago, Ralf001 said:

Yeah... my eyes aint painted on, does that mean 500k for yearly extension.

with five-year extensions, each at a mere 10 per cent of the Reserve card’s current value 

Maybe your eyes missed that one

And "for yearly extension" is not written anywhere

 

It means that these members will have to pay 500k to get a 5 year extension. An average of 100K per year if you prefer

[John Drake]

7 minutes ago, Gaccha said:

One can see a reason for an anticipated surge in applicants:

 

"Update for Chinese Nationals: Chinese nationals will no longer need to be routed through Interpol for approval. This implies they can expect shorter waiting times, enhancing their experience with Thailand Privilege."  [Source] 

 

But for people who are not active members of international crime gangs, the benefits of the new offers are less clear. 

 

The New:

 

 

The Old:

 

 

The buy 1 get 1 free every month on the Mos Burgers should get new customers breaking down the door.

[alyx]

26 minutes ago, MrMojoRisin said:

FY 22 had over 5500 applications approved.

And...17 years ago there were only 2000 of us ....and for 17 years I have been hearing the same critics...the same attacks on the members...and listening to the same doomed predictions

[Gaccha]

I just decided to calculate the Future Value* cost of the Elite Superior (20 year) extension price, one of the the old packages.

 

If we assume that inflation will be around 2%, and that it would be reasonable to assume 6% above inflation by investing in the s&p 500, that suggests that the real cost of the visa to the user is 3,207,135 baht.

 

... And that is the old deal to get 20 years of visa access. The new deal-- brace yourselves-- is a true cost of 10,904,260 baht.

 

*If you are not familiar with the financial concept of Future Value please read this link.

[Gaccha]

10 minutes ago, John Drake said:

The buy 1 get 1 free every month on the Mos Burgers should get new customers breaking down the door.

Right! I was thinking just how pitiful and vulgar that is.

 

It might be even worse than it seems; on the website, in contrast to that table, it actually says it will cost one privilege point to get this 'buy one get one free' deal.

[BE88]

3 hours ago, John Drake said:

Your post makes me pause and think. If they reform the current retirement extensions and increase the age to match the Thai retirement age of 60, then there are going to be a lot more people needing these expensive Reserve/Elite visas or whatever they call them.

I doubt they will do this because many of these expats will change country, they certainly don't want to lose the currency reserves that come in every month.

 

[John Drake]

Just now, BE88 said:

I doubt they will do this because many of these expats will change country, they certainly don't want to lose the currency reserves that come in every month.

 

I'm hoping you're right. I don't want to see any changes. Or, if they do, at least allow for the so-called grandfathering clauses. But Big Joke seemed so riled about the "biker gangs" I'm afraid he might push it up to 65 or 70. Probably most people that age can't even handle the weight of a biker gang Harley Davidson.

[ChrisY1]

6 hours ago, Adumbration said:

Next stop repricing or elemination entirely of the Non-O...

There is certainly something brewing over Non O.....whether more bank funds or something. Maybe even a promotion of the "under the table" visa....

[BE88]

2 hours ago, Gecko123 said:

https://www.imidaily.com/datacenter/thai-elite-visa-statistics/

35% Chinese and 60% Russians and Ukrainians ????

[BE88]

8 minutes ago, John Drake said:

I'm hoping you're right. I don't want to see any changes. Or, if they do, at least allow for the so-called grandfathering clauses. But Big Joke seemed so riled about the "biker gangs" I'm afraid he might push it up to 65 or 70. Probably most people that age can't even handle the weight of a biker gang Harley Davidson.

Big Joke didn't get his longed-for promotion, he's out of the running for now

 

[BE88]

1 hour ago, aldriglikvid said:

 

This is another highly interesting take, besides the "Thai Economics"-zingers: "the numbers aren't impressive". 

 

According to what? Do you guys understand that Thai Elite doesn't scale as a Spotify or HBO Max subscription? Every new member with a PE-visa requires a shuttle on Suvarnabhumi, Phuket and Chang Mai. Every new PE-visa requires bypass att checkin, security and a special line at Immigration. The idea that TPC are seeking VOLUME, as you guys claim, is nauseating clueless. They try to find a traditional Supply and Demand BALANCE of what deep-pocket tourists are willing to pay. When users are growing +100% YoY, for 3 years in a row, clearly they are underpricing themselves. Not to mention all the staff (costs) they need to hire to meet and greet all these new clients on the airports. 

 

To the "not impressive" numbers: it was 6000 active PE-visa holders in 2019 and there were forty thousand (40 000) in July before they announced their new pricing. Considering everyone had approx. 40 days to subscribe to the old pricing before the new price is fixed, I'm confident that number is not less than 50 000 next month. That's almost 10x in 5 years. Yeah, hardly impressive. 

 

Personal take? I don't think they actually want anymore than 20 000 active users. Perhaps not even that. Why would they? It's better to increase price until you reach that point of users. The exact same revenue to a lower fixed and operational cost i.e. higher profits. 

 

 

"Thai Economics"

As I have already said, Elite Visa only wants to attract as many members as possible before the increase scheduled for October 1, knowing that then the numbers of members will drop to a peak close to zero. And I personally find that B. 1,000,000 for 20 years is money thrown into the state coffers of LOS.

 

[Ralf001]

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

This elite visa never scam never did get off the ground as they were hopeful it might. Bit of a white elephant all around.

Since their ever evolving mindset is obsessed with modifications of visa schemes and overwhelming bureaucracy, we might expect draconian measures - across the board - regarding all visa statuses.....from tourist type to the resident variety. Bet on it. 

 

The Thai authorities have been overly preoccupied with how they can bundle visa schemes, since Thaksin's days. 

Process and procedures have become increasingly malignant over the last couple of decades....almost xenophobic in nature - especially regarding the non-O/O-A/O-X variety and the uttered nonsense it entangles. 

 

The mused rumours that the current incoming [mafia] government might see their way of greatly reducing the bureaucratic stranglehold that incumber resident visas is just talk. Appears that all is set in stone and they're not budging. 

 

Some of us crustier old hands remember yesteryear when long-tern resident visas and regulations were a breeze and BS-free. Ah.....the good old days. 

 

Its all about extracting the most coin from the Chinese as they can.

[wordchild]

59 minutes ago, Gaccha said:

I just decided to calculate the Future Value* cost of the Elite Superior (20 year) extension price, one of the the old packages.

 

If we assume that inflation will be around 2%, and that it would be reasonable to assume 6% above inflation by investing in the s&p 500, that suggests that the real cost of the visa to the user is 3,207,135 baht.

 

... And that is the old deal to get 20 years of visa access. The new deal-- brace yourselves-- is a true cost of 10,904,260 baht.

 

*If you are not familiar with the financial concept of Future Value please read this link.

 

 

It is fair to say there is an opportunity cost of spending current funds to purchase (assumed!) future benefits, as there is with any forward purchase.

 

However the inflation risk  in cost (or value), of those future benefits, is not borne by the purchaser it is borne by the provider. That is the value calculation in any forward purchase.

 

The buyer needs to judge the cost now (incl the opportunity cost)  against the "net present value" (to them) of the assumed future benefits.

 

Plus , of course, with some consideration of the risk that the service is not provided, as promised, in future years!

Edited September 2, 2023 by wordchild

[spidermike007]

1 hour ago, zzaa09 said:

This elite visa never scam never did get off the ground as they were hopeful it might. Bit of a white elephant all around.

Since their ever evolving mindset is obsessed with modifications of visa schemes and overwhelming bureaucracy, we might expect draconian measures - across the board - regarding all visa statuses.....from tourist type to the resident variety. Bet on it. 

 

The Thai authorities have been overly preoccupied with how they can bundle visa schemes, since Thaksin's days. 

Process and procedures have become increasingly malignant over the last couple of decades....almost xenophobic in nature - especially regarding the non-O/O-A/O-X variety and the uttered nonsense it entangles. 

 

The mused rumours that the current incoming [mafia] government might see their way of greatly reducing the bureaucratic stranglehold that incumber resident visas is just talk. Appears that all is set in stone and they're not budging. 

 

Some of us crustier old hands remember yesteryear when long-tern resident visas and regulations were a breeze and BS-free. Ah.....the good old days. 

 

I totally blame Prayuth, and the biggest joke. Immigration has gotten worse under their tutelage and their arrogance, and their insufferable xenophobia knows no bounds. This whole thing leaves a bitter, sour, nasty, foul taste in one's mouth, and the stench can be smelled for kilometers. Thailand is moving backwards on so many levels, I do not even know where to begin. 

 

The new goons are unlikely to offer much in the way of improvement. If Pita were allowed to be PM, maybe. With the army on board? They are as anti progress as they come. 

[Liverpool Lou]

6 hours ago, WHansen said:

In typical Thai fashion, if expected revenue comes up short, increase prices to make up for losses.

How about lowering prices to increase sales or is that beyond logical thinking.

Where was it stated that expected revenue fell short and that they were making losses?  Perhaps they're trying to restrict the types who apply for the TP cards?

[Liverpool Lou]

6 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Since they cannot attract much in the way of wealthy ex-pats due to a dozen good reasons why those with wealth choose other nations over Thailand, might as well hike the fees. That is a long standing Thai tradition. When demand is low, raise the prices. Just common sense, right?

Perhaps there is no shortage of demand, what makes you think that there is?   

Maybe they have been attracting too many of the wrong type of "expat" and that is the reason for the restructuring?   That is just common sense.

[Liverpool Lou]

6 hours ago, bob smith said:

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

Since they cannot attract much in the way of wealthy ex-pats due to a dozen good reasons why those with wealth choose other nations over Thailand, might as well hike the fees. That is a long standing Thai tradition. When demand is low, raise the prices. Just common sense, right?

Expand  

Thai economics 101.

Nah, just Asean Now posters' misinterpretation 101 of the article in which there was no mention of the economics of the TP card, positive or negative, being the reason for the changes.

Edited September 2, 2023 by Liverpool Lou