Thai economy to be driven by private consumption, tourism in 2023

[webfact]

 

Stimulating private consumption is a reasonable strategy for the government to maintain economic growth amidst global uncertainties, according to Tim Leelahaphan, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank Thailand. The first half of 2023 saw a 7% year-on-year increase in the country’s private consumption.

 

Expectations are high for private consumption and tourism to be the main drivers of economic growth in the latter half of the year. Standard Chartered Bank Thailand is currently awaiting further details of the government’s proposed 10,000 baht digital handout scheme, which requires a massive portion of the government’s budget, estimated at 560 billion baht.

 

Tim projected an increase in the fiscal deficit to 4.0% of GDP in 2024, up from 3.8% in the current year. However, he also noted that the government is expected to focus more on financial and fiscal discipline over the next four to five years, which should decrease the fiscal deficit over the long term.

 

by Alex Morgan

Image courtesy of Tim Leelahaphan, Instagram.

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2023-09-21

 

- Cigna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

Get our Daily Newsletter - Click HERE to subscribe

[spidermike007]

Wrong. Prices are up, inflation continues it's march, and income for many Thais who are not successful entrepreneurs, or government workers, is down. Tourism will not recover anytime soon. The quality of tourists continues to drop, the average spend is down, and occupancy rates are low. In addition, exports are down, and we have not even seen a real recession hit yet overseas. Nor has the market correction come yet. So, there is still alot of headwind that Thailand faces.

 

The fact is Thailand could be doing a dozen different things to make itself more attractive to both tourism and investment. But, all the things it could do, to make itself a better version of it's current self, would require sacrifice and vision. Not something this army led govt. nor Sretta and the PT seem capable of. Major tax breaks, drastic lowering of luxury and wine taxes, allowing ownership of land and homes by foreigners, relaxation of inane visa laws, ridding the administration of xenophobic ministers, beginning a program of hiring based on merit, improving traffic safety, paying attention to the air and the environment. The list goes on and on and on. Will any of this happen? One can hope. But, it is unlikely as this administration is likely to be another in a continuing chain of backward thinking, non progressives.

 

They love projections, prognosticactions, declarations and platitudes. But when it comes to the nuts and bolts, and practical improvements, so far, they appear to be absolutely lost in space.

 

 

 

[Ben Zioner]

This is Thailand where driving the economy by private economy means stealing money from the industrious through a remittance tax and give it to no hopers who will use it to gamble and drink some cheap gasoline. At best it could only be neutral. And I am not getting into the issue of the property market which will be significantly affected as well.

Edited September 21, 2023 by Ben Zioner

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

Expectations are high for private consumption and tourism to be the main drivers of economic growth in the latter half of the year.

Get ready for some disappointments later then...

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Expectations are high for private consumption and tourism to be the main drivers of economic growth

That's nuts. And the same approach by PM Prayut for 8 years. The economy of Thailand has been dependent on exports that accounts for about 2/3 of of GDP (2021). Exports such as electronics and autos are high value contributors to the economy compared dom3stic consumption of eggs, pigs, chickens and vegetables.

 

Gold instantly comes to mind as an export. Maybe that's why the government recently gave the Akara Resources' Chatree gold mining project a 10-year operating license despite after having been shutdown by PM Prayut since 2017.

[natway09]

Meanwhile the 2024 unbalanced budget with so called "stimulus packages " Government spending

stupidly high with a waft of the wand saying private sector needs to raise this money that we spend. And folks will be surprised with a massive blowout deficit ??? 

Getting totally crazy !!

[Eric Loh]

Thaksinomics 2. Same economic circumstances as back in the old days. Economy was wrecked by the '97 financial crisis, export growth was down, household debts was equivalent to 80% of GDP and domestic consumption was down. Growth in those period was barely above 3%. In stepped Somkid and Thaksinomic 1 based on the idea that the nation should be governed like a company. Populist policies to lift private consumption and policies to reduce cost of living. Prgrams like OTOP, Village Fund, farmer moratorium and UHC were introduced. Marketing campaigns overseas to bring in FDI. Sretha started to implement some the the same policies on Day 1 and he is the right man for the job. Thaksinomic 1 has given Thailand some of the best GDP growth and it should work this time with the added tourism sector being a potential growth engine. 

[spidermike007]

On 9/21/2023 at 10:47 AM, Ben Zioner said:

This is Thailand where driving the economy by private economy means stealing money from the industrious through a remittance tax and give it to no hopers who will use it to gamble and drink some cheap gasoline. At best it could only be neutral. And I am not getting into the issue of the property market which will be significantly affected as well.

There is a good chance the price of houses and condos will drop significantly here, over the next few years, as a substantial worldwide correction takes place. Land is likely safe here. The condo market is way over built. 

[jacko45k]

12 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

There is a good chance the price of houses and condos will drop significantly here, over the next few years, as a substantial worldwide correction takes place. Land is likely safe here. The condo market is way over built. 

Could it not be offset by Chinese and Indian buyers? 

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, jacko45k said:

Could it not be offset by Chinese and Indian buyers? 

No. Not likely there will be enough to offset the plunge in consumer confidence, and the market jitters, once the DOW gets below 20,000. I think it could drop as low as 3,900. And I see real estate dropping by 60% or more. Houses and condos for sure.

[zzaa09]

On 9/20/2023 at 8:33 PM, spidermike007 said:

Wrong. Prices are up, inflation continues it's march, and income for many Thais who are not successful entrepreneurs, or government workers, is down. Tourism will not recover anytime soon. The quality of tourists continues to drop, the average spend is down, and occupancy rates are low. In addition, exports are down, and we have not even seen a real recession hit yet overseas. Nor has the market correction come yet. So, there is still alot of headwind that Thailand faces.

 

The fact is Thailand could be doing a dozen different things to make itself more attractive to both tourism and investment. But, all the things it could do, to make itself a better version of it's current self, would require sacrifice and vision. Not something this army led govt. nor Sretta and the PT seem capable of. Major tax breaks, drastic lowering of luxury and wine taxes, allowing ownership of land and homes by foreigners, relaxation of inane visa laws, ridding the administration of xenophobic ministers, beginning a program of hiring based on merit, improving traffic safety, paying attention to the air and the environment. The list goes on and on and on. Will any of this happen? One can hope. But, it is unlikely as this administration is likely to be another in a continuing chain of backward thinking, non progressives.

 

They love projections, prognosticactions, declarations and platitudes. But when it comes to the nuts and bolts, and practical improvements, so far, they appear to be absolutely lost in space.

 

 

 

Uh-huh. 

Same as it ever was. 

 

 

You were expecting something else? 

[spidermike007]

39 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Uh-huh. 

Same as it ever was. 

 

 

You were expecting something else? 

He looks like someone just informed him his big smile and a small rebate will not be enough to bring the economy back from the devastation wrought by the former administration. 

 

Oh well. You mean we need a real plan? Say it ain't so! 

[kinyara]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

He looks like someone just informed him his big smile and a small rebate will not be enough to bring the economy back from the devastation wrought by the former administration. 

 

Oh well. You mean we need a real plan? Say it ain't so! 

Christ almighty, why don't you just leave and go to a country that serves you cheap wine and you can mingle with tourists that fit in your social bracket. Thailand isn't going to change for a whinging American, you're irrelevant.

[Gknrd]

Playing the private consumption card says it all. They know now China is not there to save them. China is playing the same card. Actually Thailand still has some tourists so in a better shape than most.

If from the west enjoy Thailand if you can. Just don't spend any month there. That is a fools game at this point.

[jacko45k]

18 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

No. Not likely there will be enough to offset the plunge in consumer confidence, and the market jitters, once the DOW gets below 20,000. I think it could drop as low as 3,900. And I see real estate dropping by 60% or more. Houses and condos for sure.

We had quite a surge in Chinese interest near where I live some time ago, maybe 18 months.... they were all over and agents were asking me was I thinking to sell. One house went to them, another fell through, as the owner got pixxed off dealing with them. It could have been based on a factory being planned in the area though. 

[spidermike007]

10 hours ago, kinyara said:

Christ almighty, why don't you just leave and go to a country that serves you cheap wine and you can mingle with tourists that fit in your social bracket. Thailand isn't going to change for a whinging American, you're irrelevant.

Very lame. Nearly every time I see someone complaining, or observing a shortfall within Thailand, some lame guy, who has not taken the time to think things through, nor to devote any focus or effort to a reasonable reply, says something like "Perhaps Thailand is not for you", or maybe you should leave, or the top prize, "if you do not like it here, go back to your own country". Hard to even respond to such inane statements. Why? Because I have some issues with the place? Sorry to inform you, but the nature of a discerning mind, is to have issues.

Though absolute contentment must be a beautiful state of mind, it is not something most of us are blessed with, in case you have not noticed. The fact that I complain, does not mean I do not love Thailand, nor most of it's people. I do. I love my life here. I have a very good life here. But, I do have some complaints, most are in regard to the feeble level of governance here, and there are some things I would love to see improved. I should leave because of that?

 

And besides, I do not drink cheap wine. I leave all of it for you. Please. Next time you make a post, try to devote at least two moments of thought to it.
 

Edited September 25, 2023 by spidermike007