Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

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The Israeli government wants to make it clear throughout the region - to Hezbollah, to Palestine Islamic Jihad, to Syria, and especially to Iran - that the country will never be passive in the face of attack.

Michael Clarke

Military analyst

 

 

Israel will be looking at all military options at the moment. 

And they don't look very good - not with 130 or so Israeli hostages imprisoned and dispersed all over Gaza.

But after Israel's current bombing campaign - designed to go after Hamas ammunition supplies and command facilities, most of which are disguised in ostensibly civilian buildings - there will be no alternative but for the Israeli Defence Forces to invade the whole Gaza Strip.

Israel vows to 'wipe out' Hamas - live updates

Anything less would not achieve Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stated objective of "destroying" the Hamas terrorist group completely. There is no mileage for him in "hurting it" or offering Hamas some lesser response.

After the attacks of Saturday, the Israeli government reacted in the same way the British and American governments reacted to the atrocities of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq - with a legal justification and a political determination to eradicate it completely.

 

Whether or not that can be achieved through a military campaign remains a moot question, but there certainly will be a full-scale military campaign in the very near future.

Not least, the Israeli government wants to make it clear throughout the region - to Hezbollah, to Palestine Islamic Jihad, to Syria, and especially to Iran - that the country will never be passive in the face of attack. It will never turn the other cheek.

What form might the full-scale response take? The overwhelming military preference will be for Israel to launch a multi-pronged attack into Gaza, probably from the landward and seaward side simultaneously, coupled with an even greater intensity air campaign in the hours preceding zero hour.

 

FULL ARTICLE

[candide]

It seems that Hamas is following a similar strategy to that of the RAF (Rote Armee Faktion) in the past (for those who remember this time).

[stevenl]

5 hours ago, candide said:

It seems that Hamas is following a similar strategy to that of the RAF (Rote Armee Faktion) in the past (for those who remember this time).

Can you please explain, I don't see many similarities.

[novacova]

Unfortunately this has the propensity to turn into a regional conflict very rapidly with Iran, Lebanon and Syria. Already Israel has taken preemptive action on airstrips in Syria and may implement such action in Iran. Let’s hope Syria doesn’t use their chemical weapons, that would reciprocate an ultimate response from Israel and in turn Israel would most likely lose any support from all nations.

[ThaiFelix]

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians and the rest of the world will look the other way.

 

I feel Hamas has bitten off far more than it can handle but then what alternative does a hunted beast have when cornered?

[novacova]

“The Israeli Ministry of Defense and the IDF notified the UN just before midnight local time to evacuate its staff and notify Palestinians living north of Wadi Gaza that they should evacuate to the southern part of the Gaza Strip in the next 24 hours, UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric and another source with direct knowledge.”

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation

[Tug]

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

[Jeff the Chef]

Yes kill everyone in Gaza Israel, then wonder why all the Arab states around you keep trying to do the same thing to you. Sounds like a plan well thought out by someone.

[Morch]

2 hours ago, ThaiFelix said:

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians and the rest of the world will look the other way.

 

I feel Hamas has bitten off far more than it can handle but then what alternative does a hunted beast have when cornered?

Maybe not act as beasts?

[Morch]

25 minutes ago, Tug said:

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

Polls indicate Hamas routinely commands a solid, sizeable support base among Palestinians.

[Morch]

16 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Yes kill everyone in Gaza Israel, then wonder why all the Arab states around you keep trying to do the same thing to you. Sounds like a plan well thought out by someone.

Kill everyone how? Current casualty figures evened out just now. If Israel intended to kill all Gazans, things would be different.

[Jeff the Chef]

2 minutes ago, Morch said:

Kill everyone how? Current casualty figures evened out just now. If Israel intended to kill all Gazans, things would be different.

 Kill everyone how? I'm sure Israel can think of a way to kill everyone.

 

Current casualty figures evened out just now. That's a relief, to anyone thinking this was an uneven contest

 

If Israel intended to kill all Gazans, things would be different.

 

How would they be different?

 

Will the end scenario make all the other Arab nations love the Israeli's more or less?

[novacova]

29 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Yes kill everyone in Gaza Israel, then wonder why all the Arab states around you keep trying to do the same thing to you. Sounds like a plan well thought out by someone.

The IDF always gives warnings to Gazans of when and where they hit via text. Hamas restrains innocent civilians from escaping to incite a PR emotional response,. When did Hamas ever give a warning before an attack? Though yet here we have a continuous debased morally blurred individuals that has showed empirically by definition support for Hamas, Hamas by definition is translated to the English word violence which is supported by most Gazas who voted for this regime, therefore conflating the moral equivalent is no less in support of Hamas. 

[Jeff the Chef]

1 minute ago, novacova said:

The IDF always gives warnings to Gazans of when and where they hit via text. Hamas restrains innocent civilians from escaping to incite a PR emotional response,. When did Hamas ever give a warning before an attack? Though yet here we have a continuous debased morally blurred individuals that has showed empirically by definition support for Hamas, Hamas by definition is translated to the English word violence which is supported by most Gazas who voted for this regime, therefore conflating the moral equivalent is no less in support of Hamas. 

Neither side has any morals, these tit for tat atrocities have been going on for millennia

None of  the protagonists on both sides will never be happy no matter what the outcome.

To me it is all a waste of human lives.

[bizboi]

57 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Yes kill everyone in Gaza Israel, then wonder why all the Arab states around you keep trying to do the same thing to you. Sounds like a plan well thought out by someone.

…as does doing nothing and having terrorist atrocities commited against you every Saturday morning!! Maybe you think they should just leave the lands they’ve occupied for 4000 years give or take a few hundred - and before people start ranting about the Balfour treaty ( which was of course a UN mandate) have a think why not only the Jews but the Armenians and the Kurds face persecution In The Middle East - here’s a clue -  it’s to do with a religion which has no tolerance for other religions!!!! But expects tolerance to them!

[Hanaguma]

2 hours ago, ThaiFelix said:

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians and the rest of the world will look the other way.

 

I feel Hamas has bitten off far more than it can handle but then what alternative does a hunted beast have when cornered?

What land has Israel stolen from Hamas or Gaza?

[Jeff the Chef]

13 minutes ago, bizboi said:

…as does doing nothing and having terrorist atrocities commuted against you every Saturday morning!! Maybe you think they should just leave lands they’ve occupied for 4000 years give it take a few hundred - and before people start ranting about the Balfour treaty ( which was of course a UN mandate) have a think why not only the Jews but the Armenians and the Kurds face persecution I. The middle - it’s to do with a religion which has no tolerance for other religions!!!! But expects tolerance to them!

I personally couldn't careless about who is at fault for any conflict, I'm just sad that humanity continues to keep killing one another, end of.

[traveller101]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Get it done exterminate Hamas if the Palestinians want relief they need to rat out the barbarians that brought this debacle down on their heads 

Since Hamas live amongst the 2.4 Million Palestimians in the Gaza strip, your request to 'exterminate Hamas' can only be realised in exterminating the whole population living in Gaza.

You're ok with that scenario?

 

[bizboi]

3 hours ago, ThaiFelix said:

One thing for sure is Israel will end up stealing more land from the Palestinians and the rest of the world will look the other way.

 

I feel Hamas has bitten off far more than it can handle but then what alternative does a hunted beast have when cornered?

Israel was there four thousand years before any Palestinian!!!

[bizboi]

3 minutes ago, traveller101 said:

Since Hamas live amongst the 2.4 Million Palestimians in the Gaza strip, your request to 'exterminate Hamas' can only be realised in exterminating the whole population living in Gaza.

You're ok with that scenario?

 

Why not - Hamas seem to be!

[Morch]

47 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

 Kill everyone how? I'm sure Israel can think of a way to kill everyone.

 

Current casualty figures evened out just now. That's a relief, to anyone thinking this was an uneven contest

 

If Israel intended to kill all Gazans, things would be different.

 

How would they be different?

 

Will the end scenario make all the other Arab nations love the Israeli's more or less?

You're the one making claims Israel intends to kill all Gazans. You can't back it up with anything.

The casualty figures were referenced to demonstrate the disingenuous nature of your complaint.

If Israel wished to kill all Gazan's the death toll would be way higher by now. There would be no warnings issued, different armaments used.

 

As for Arab countries' responses - so far pretty much muted, or on par with the usual stuff. I don't think that's quite Israel's foremost consideration at this time, and rightly so.

[bizboi]

28 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Neither side has any morals, these tit for tat atrocities have been going on for millennia

None of  the protagonists on both sides will never be happy no matter what the outcome.

To me it is all a waste of human lives.

Seems to me Hamas always starts it every time things go quiet - I used to have a balanced view too but then I saw what’s happening to the Kurds and the koptics in Egypt and the Armenians - it’s purely about one sides religion being unable to tolerate anything but their own @book@

[Morch]

30 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

Neither side has any morals, these tit for tat atrocities have been going on for millennia

None of  the protagonists on both sides will never be happy no matter what the outcome.

To me it is all a waste of human lives.

Israel does not intentionally  target children, or much of the other stuff carried out by Hamas on this attack.

War is never pretty, nor nice. You conflate a terrorist attack with a military one.

 

[Morch]

15 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

I personally couldn't careless about who is at fault for any conflict, I'm just sad that humanity continues to keep killing one another, end of.

Claims 'couldn't care less' - goes on and on about 'Israel bad'.

[shackleton]

Hamas will reap what they sow 

End of ????

[Morch]

16 minutes ago, traveller101 said:

Since Hamas live amongst the 2.4 Million Palestimians in the Gaza strip, your request to 'exterminate Hamas' can only be realised in exterminating the whole population living in Gaza.

You're ok with that scenario?

 

Hamas digs in among civilians, effectively using them as a shield. You seem to absolve them of any responsibility.

 

As for your decisive claim, it is not accurate. There are sure to be a whole lot of civilian deaths, but it does not imply your hyperbole.

[Jeff the Chef]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

Claims 'couldn't care less' - goes on and on about 'Israel bad'.

If it will make you happy let me say this.

 

Anybody who takes the life of another Human being for whatever reason is bad.

[thaibeachlovers]

23 hours ago, Social Media said:

After the attacks of Saturday, the Israeli government reacted in the same way the British and American governments reacted to the atrocities of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq - with a legal justification and a political determination to eradicate it completely.

 

Whether or not that can be achieved through a military campaign remains a moot question, but there certainly will be a full-scale military campaign in the very near future.

It's not moot at all. They will never eradicate Hamas, as for every Gazan killed more supporters of Hamas are created. Even if they killed every Gazan, more will be created outside israel.

 

Israel has sown the wind and the whirlwind is coming. Israel is risking eternal war.

 

The world is watching.

[thaibeachlovers]

25 minutes ago, bizboi said:

Why not - Hamas seem to be!

Are you an advocate of genocide? Seems that that is what you want from that post.

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, Jeff the Chef said:

If it will make you happy let me say this.

 

Anybody who takes the life of another Human being for whatever reason is bad.

Luckily, my happiness does not depend on what some random, anonymous person posts on the internet,

 

As to what you posted: Just instant waffle. Self defense, for example, is acceptable.