Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Nick Carter icp]

3 minutes ago, traveller101 said:

 

You seem to be comfortable with the notion of eradicating the whole population in order to achieve the goal of eradicating Hamas.

It's called Genocide, the most serious war crime.

There are 7 Billion people in the world and just two million Palestinians , it will hardly be noticeable 

[Morch]

9 hours ago, placnx said:

Regrettably it has gotten to the point where being willing to die is the only way to put an end to 16 years of incarceration with no end in sight.

He said from his armchair.....

 

Their deaths will not alter the blockade. And as for 'the only way' - maybe not attacking Israel would work? Just a thought.

 

The blockade was put in place for a reason. In did not come out of nowhere.

[Morch]

9 hours ago, placnx said:

Israel is in control, and the US goes along with it. For decades Israel has worked to prevent effective self-governance by the Palestinians. They want a government that will enforce the will and policies of the Israeli government without regard to the interests of the Palestinian people. 

How is Israel 'in control' when it comes to Palestinians holding elections? Does Israel control the Gaza Strip?

 

Your claim seems to offer that the Palestinians are so passive and clueless that they cannot even have political disagreements, intrigue and the rest, without outside help.

 

Both Fatah and Hamas have reasons to avoid holding elections, mainly to do with the power plays between them and projected gains/losses.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Hopefully a new younger generation of Palestinian leadership will emerge who will realise that continually attacking and fighting Israel  is of no benefit to themselves .

   A new younger generation that accepts Israel's right to exist and want to live peacefully with its neighbours .

   Then Israel and Palestinians can live in peace and when that happens, there is no reason for them not to have a Country of their own 

Clearly, you are unfamiliar with how the Israelis have treated the Palestinians for the past 50 something years. And if you think that a change in attitude among Palestinians could happen without major changes in the way that Israel treats them, think again.

[Morch]

9 hours ago, placnx said:

There was method in madness. I doubt that we are talking about blind hatred, even. The people who care nothing for the lives of those Palestinians are the ones who dropped 6000 bombs on residential buildings.

Residential areas which they asked Palestinians to evacuate, while Hamas urging them to stay.

 

Hamas launched (and continues to launch) a comparable number of rockets against Israel. Doesn't seem to phase you one bit.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

Here's a few points raised by Thomas Friedman that point out the deep irrationality behind the presumably impending invasion of Gaza.

"Just ask this question: If Israel announced today that it was forgoing, for now, a full-blown invasion of Gaza, who would be happy, and who would be relieved, and who would be upset? Iran would be totally frustrated, Hezbollah would be disappointed, Hamas would feel devastated — its whole war plan came to naught — and Vladimir Putin would be crushed, because Israel would not be burning up ammunition and weapons the U.S. needs to be sending to Ukraine. The settlers in the West Bank would be enraged."

https://archive.ph/bpZcO

Not only is it remarkable for his rare display of common sense, but also for the fact that he no longer refers to Netanyahu as "Bibi"

 

I think he's somewhat out of touch with current public sentiment is Israel. Sure, there are some similar voices, but more of a consensus Hamas need to be dealt with. While it's all very good and well saying you can't destroy and idea and so on, it is perfectly possible to hit it hard enough to curb it's powers. Terrorist organizations who are denied  secure bases of operation significantly lose power. Not forever, perhaps, but then again, it's not like there some magic solution for this anyway. Fatah was driven out from one country to another, each time losing power and traction, AQ and IS being more recent examples.

[Morch]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

Here's a snippet from a post by Amos Harel of Haaretz, cited by Friedman.

 

 "There is an unusual combination of people at the top in Israel. On one hand, there is an unfit prime minister, a nearly Shakespearean figure who is facing the personal danger of an ignominious conclusion to an arguably brilliant career. Facing him are a military brass who are smitten and consumed with guilt feelings (and if only Netanyahu would bother displaying a smidgen of that). That’s not a perfect recipe for considered decision-making."

https://archive.ph/nzrH8#selection-1447.49-1447.493

Israeli public sentiment is also quite anti-government at this time. Some polls show Netanyahu's party crushing to under 20 parliament seats, some coalition partners taking a hit as well. I do not think he'll come out of this unharmed (politically). Last time Israel dealt with a similar crisis (after the 1973 war), there was a mass protest movement which eventually led to major political figures stepping down, losing votes and so on. In the present situation, the crisis occurred with a strong anti-government protest movement already firmly in place. One may hope it will bear the expected fruit.

[MikeandDow]

38 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

It happened in Ireland and also in numerous other  Countries 

point taken

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If there are any unexploded bombs, the israelis may find them being returned to them ( if they invade ) as anti tank IEDs.

Or they may explode in the hands of the Hamas trying to turn them into such.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

Israeli public sentiment is also quite anti-government at this time. Some polls show Netanyahu's party crushing to under 20 parliament seats, some coalition partners taking a hit as well. I do not think he'll come out of this unharmed (politically). Last time Israel dealt with a similar crisis (after the 1973 war), there was a mass protest movement which eventually led to major political figures stepping down, losing votes and so on. In the present situation, the crisis occurred with a strong anti-government protest movement already firmly in place. One may hope it will bear the expected fruit.

But anti-government why? Because of the way successive Israeli administrations have treated the Palestinians? You think this desire to depose the government is based on  deep self-reflection on the part of Jewish Israelis? I think it's obvious that this isn't the case.

[Nick Carter icp]

17 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Clearly, you are unfamiliar with how the Israelis have treated the Palestinians for the past 50 something years. And if you think that a change in attitude among Palestinians could happen without major changes in the way that Israel treats them, think again.

All the animosity stems from Palestinians  refusal to accept Israel's right to exist .

   Once that issue has been addressed, they can both move on from there 

[Morch]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Well, it may eliminate Hamas, but unless the conditions that led to Hamas are changed, a similar organization will most likely arise to replace it.

If by 'the conditions that led to Hamas' you mean the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, then this will not be changed anytime soon, surely not after the Hamas attack. If it applied to PA corruption, than that too is here to stay.

 

As per the more immediate issue for Gazans, namely the blockade, it will not change in heartbeat, but considering that the main motivation for its existence was Hamas, then medium-long term things could be altered (say as things are in the West Bank, or how they used to be previously). Egypt, though - they'll face a whole lot of pressure to change their policy. I doubt they are thrilled, but may have to loosen up their grip some, at least temporarily.

[placeholder]

Just now, Nick Carter icp said:

All the animosity stems from Palestinians  refusal to accept Israel's right to exist .

   Once that issue has been addressed, they can both move on from there 

This is laughable. Right from the start of Israel's occupation of the West Bank, it engaged in a massive campaign to make Palestinians lead a miserable existence via deeply discriminatory laws. And destruction of Palestinians villages and homes. Denials of equal access to water. And, of course the settlers. Severely limiting the right of Palestinians to open businesses. And so forth.

[Nick Carter icp]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

This is laughable. Right from the start of Israel's occupation of the West Bank, it engaged in a massive campaign to make Palestinians lead a miserable existence via deeply discriminatory laws. And destruction of Palestinians villages and homes. Denials of equal access to water. And, of course the settlers. Severely limiting the right of Palestinians to open businesses. And so forth.

Palestinians being miserable is a result of the Palestinians  Charter .

   They are not allowed to be happy, its forbidden in the rules as written in the Charter

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Morch said:

If by 'the conditions that led to Hamas' you mean the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, then this will not be changed anytime soon, surely not after the Hamas attack. If it applied to PA corruption, than that too is here to stay.

 

As per the more immediate issue for Gazans, namely the blockade, it will not change in heartbeat, but considering that the main motivation for its existence was Hamas, then medium-long term things could be altered (say as things are in the West Bank, or how they used to be previously). Egypt, though - they'll face a whole lot of pressure to change their policy. I doubt they are thrilled, but may have to loosen up their grip some, at least temporarily.

'medium-long term". It is to laugh. Tell that to the Palestians living in what has been described as an "open-air prison. And another howler: say as things are in the West Bank, or how they used to be previously

 

As for Egypt, the ruling government's policy towards Israel is not popular with the most Egyptians. Given that the standard of living for most Egyptians is declining while the military kleptocracy keeps expanding its grip on the economy, it will indeed be interesting to see how the Egyptian government relates to Israel in the future.

[placeholder]

1 minute ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Palestinians being miserable is a result of the Palestinians  Charter .

   They are not allowed to be happy, its forbidden in the rules as written in the Charter

Now you demonstrate your absolute lack of familiarity of how Israel has treated and is treating the Palestinians by invoking nonsense.

[Nick Carter icp]

Just now, placeholder said:

Now you demonstrate your absolute lack of familiarity of how Israel has treated and is treating the Palestinians by invoking nonsense.

Have you read the Palestinian Charter ?

[placeholder]

Just now, Nick Carter icp said:

Have you read the Palestinian Charter ?

Is that your answer to how Israel has treated the Palestinians?

[Morch]

3 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Thank you for injecting some common sense into the thread.

 

The only way to "eradicate" Hamas is to eradicate the Palestinian population, IMO.

Meanwhile, israel has created millions of new Hamas supporters, and every day more are vowing revenge against israel.

 

The world is watching and will not forget.

Hamas does not represent, or is supported, by all of of the Palestinians. Not IMO. Fact.

 

I notice you changed your last line sign off slogan from 'reap what they sow' used during the first couple of days.

The new one is just as pointless.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, ThaiFelix said:

If you replaced the word Hamas with Israel or IDF in your nonsense comments it would be much closer to the truth.  Stop spreading lies!

Oh dear, 'exposed' by a hollow one-liner comment.

Could you actually point out those claimed 'lies'? I should think actually addressing them would be more helpful for your cause.

[Neeranam]

1 hour ago, traveller101 said:

 

You seem to be comfortable with the notion of eradicating the whole population in order to achieve the goal of eradicating Hamas.

It's called Genocide, the most serious war crime.

indeed, and some here even supporting it. They have to be Jewish or their biased would make no sense.

[Morch]

1 hour ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Hopefully a new younger generation of Palestinian leadership will emerge who will realise that continually attacking and fighting Israel  is of no benefit to themselves .

   A new younger generation that accepts Israel's right to exist and want to live peacefully with its neighbours .

   Then Israel and Palestinians can live in peace and when that happens, there is no reason for them not to have a Country of their own 

Your post is a total disconnect from reality.

 

For generations of Palestinians the forming experience is either the Israeli occupation, or the hardship of 'siege' and periodical destruction in the Gaza Strip. The fact that this is not solely Israel's responsibility, and that their leaderships contribute to the state of things is neither communicated, promoted or acknowledged enough to make much of an effect. And indeed - this fact is not tangible, Palestinian everyday experience with more immediate reality makes this take a sit at the far end of the bus. The only times when this becomes more of thing, is when there a lull, or easing of Israeli actions and policy.

 

Political criticism of leadership is usually something more readily taken when not under being under external pressure and threat to survival. The same way Israel exhibited a severe political divide, but a unity (sort of) government formed to face emergency.

 

[Morch]

32 minutes ago, placeholder said:

But anti-government why? Because of the way successive Israeli administrations have treated the Palestinians? You think this desire to depose the government is based on  deep self-reflection on the part of Jewish Israelis? I think it's obvious that this isn't the case.

There is indeed some convergence, with pretty much all of the forces that could be labeled pro-peace being part of the anti-government thrust. But overall, no - the protests were mostly not about the Palestinians (for tactical political reasons - as to garner more support and put certain differences aside). And I don't think that post war protests will be about the Palestinians either. Israel withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, for example, was not motivated by a sense of guilt or anything, but was seen as an Israeli interest.

 

But my post was more to do, I think, with the current crap leadership's political future. Maybe the reasons they will be removed from office (again, hopefully) do not matter as much as the fact that they will be gone. Some can say that it will not matter for the Palestinians, but I think there's a marked difference between the current bunch of useless loon populist extremists  and a more reasonable option.

[placeholder]

12 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

indeed, and some here even supporting it. They have to be Jewish or their biased would make no sense.

Because bias is sensible? Because the most enthusiastic supporters of Israel outside of Israel are not Jews but evangelical Christians. And are amoral and nihilistic people mostly or only Jews? That you can make such an assumption clearly means that you are an anti-semite.

[Morch]

37 minutes ago, placeholder said:

'medium-long term". It is to laugh. Tell that to the Palestians living in what has been described as an "open-air prison. And another howler: say as things are in the West Bank, or how they used to be previously

 

As for Egypt, the ruling government's policy towards Israel is not popular with the most Egyptians. Given that the standard of living for most Egyptians is declining while the military kleptocracy keeps expanding its grip on the economy, it will indeed be interesting to see how the Egyptian government relates to Israel in the future.

 

Things will not change in the short term. That's a fact. Things may change some later on, and to a degree, but not so that all hardship and restrictions will disappear. An easing of some would already be an improvement. Palestinians, as in not those immersed in active 'resistance' tend to get it better than you do. Things in the West Bank, bad as they might be, are better than the situation in the Gaza Strip. Oppression, restrictions and all the rest - but not the same. 

 

The 'open air prison' bit is a loaded term. The Gaza Strip was not always under blockade and 'siege'. Maybe if if the main reason for it's existence could be minimized, restrictions would be eased. Presenting it the way you did is out of context. Previous to the Hamas attack there were tens of thousands Palestinian from the Gaza Strip working in Israel  daily. 

 

Egyptian government being at odds with public sentiment regarding Israel policy is pretty  much a constant from the time peace agreements were signed. On the other hand, take away the peace agreements, and Egypt's economy will plunge further. Give in to public sentiment on this, and risk the revival of Islamic/Islamist forces. Complicated.

 

 

[Morch]

52 minutes ago, Nick Carter icp said:

Have you read the Palestinian Charter ?

I think you're confusing the Hamas Charter with the Palestinian Constitution Draft.

[Morch]

36 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

indeed, and some here even supporting it. They have to be Jewish or their biased would make no sense.

Why, are all Hamas fansboys here Muslim?

[placeholder]

50 minutes ago, Morch said:

There is indeed some convergence, with pretty much all of the forces that could be labeled pro-peace being part of the anti-government thrust. But overall, no - the protests were mostly not about the Palestinians (for tactical political reasons - as to garner more support and put certain differences aside). And I don't think that post war protests will be about the Palestinians either. Israel withdrawing from the Gaza Strip, for example, was not motivated by a sense of guilt or anything, but was seen as an Israeli interest.

 

But my post was more to do, I think, with the current crap leadership's political future. Maybe the reasons they will be removed from office (again, hopefully) do not matter as much as the fact that they will be gone. Some can say that it will not matter for the Palestinians, but I think there's a marked difference between the current bunch of useless loon populist extremists  and a more reasonable option.

So if things go as they did in the past when these relative moderates were running things, treatment of the Palestinians will still get worse, but more slowly.

Edited October 17, 2023 by placeholder

[placeholder]

36 minutes ago, Morch said:

The 'open air prison' bit is a loaded term. The Gaza Strip was not always under blockade and 'siege'. Maybe if if the main reason for it's existence could be minimized, restrictions would be eased. Presenting it the way you did is out of context. Previous to the Hamas attack there were tens of thousands Palestinian from the Gaza Strip working in Israel  daily. 

According to official Palestinian and Israeli statistics, about 18,000 Palestinian workers from Gaza work in various Israeli cities, of whom 9,000 exit daily through the Erez crossing. 

https://www.newarab.com/news/israels-collective-punishment-focuses-gazas-workers

[placeholder]

37 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Things will not change in the short term. That's a fact. Things may change some later on, and to a degree, but not so that all hardship and restrictions will disappear. An easing of some would already be an improvement. Palestinians, as in not those immersed in active 'resistance' tend to get it better than you do. Things in the West Bank, bad as they might be, are better than the situation in the Gaza Strip. Oppression, restrictions and all the rest - but not the same. 

So,to recap, it-will-still-be-bad-but-maybe-better followed by it-could-be-worse.