Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Morch]

56 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So if things go as they did in the past when these relative moderates were running things, treatment of the Palestinians will still get worse, but more slowly.

It would depend on the composition of such a coalition government. I do not expect a swiping change with regard to policy regarding the Palestinians, but nothing like the support illegal settlers in the West Bank get under the current government etc. It would be naive, at best, to expect major concession following the Hamas attack. In this sense, it set back Palestinians prospects (slim as they were). 

 

It's quite easy to hold all-or-nothing views from afar. I don't think all, or even most Palestinians subscribe to this notion. Most Gazans would probably embrace how things were just a couple of weeks back, and maybe if given a choice, not support their leadership's decision to attack.

[ThaiFelix]

4 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

It happened in Ireland and also in numerous other  Countries 

Yes but the British werent sending in British settlers to destroy the Irish dwellings and orchards and take over the land for themselves while the authorities happily looked the other way.  The British, and I imagine your numerous other countries, were trying to control the locals not steal their land.   There is a very big difference.

[ThaiFelix]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

the support illegal settlers in the West Bank get under the current government

There lay the key sentence.

[placnx]

13 hours ago, Jingthing said:

There was method in the pogrom at the music festival, etc.?

Do you agree Hamas needs to be eliminated like Isis or not?

If not you are supporting their terrorist ideology. 

Kill all Jews.

End Israel. 

Have a caliphate.

I doubt that Hama can be eliminated. Hopefully Biden's visit will impress on IDF planners the imperative to avoid targetting hospitals and civilian refuges. Can you cite Hamas documents about killing all Jews or a caliphate? These sound like talking points for a certain narrative, i.e. they are Isis equivalents.

 

Documents collected from dead Hamas fighters show that there was detailed planning of the places to attack. No report I've seen has mentioned Hamas documents related to the festival site, though. Was that opportunistic?

[Jingthing]

Just now, placnx said:

I doubt that Hama can be eliminated. Hopefully Biden's visit will impress on IDF planners the imperative to avoid targetting hospitals and civilian refuges. Can you cite Hamas documents about killing all Jews or a caliphate? These sound like talking points for a certain narrative, i.e. they are Isis equivalents.

 

Documents collected from dead Hamas fighters show that there was detailed planning of the places to attack. No report I've seen has mentioned Hamas documents related to the festival site, though. Was that opportunistic?

Such a predictable post.

Hamas doesn't really want to kill Jews.

Hamas accepts the existence of Israel.

Who do you think you're fooling?

[Morch]

1 minute ago, placnx said:

I doubt that Hama can be eliminated. Hopefully Biden's visit will impress on IDF planners the imperative to avoid targetting hospitals and civilian refuges. Can you cite Hamas documents about killing all Jews or a caliphate? These sound like talking points for a certain narrative, i.e. they are Isis equivalents.

 

Documents collected from dead Hamas fighters show that there was detailed planning of the places to attack. No report I've seen has mentioned Hamas documents related to the festival site, though. Was that opportunistic?

There was no targeting as you claim, as far as I'm aware. Of course, the fact that Hamas places itself among civilians is taken in step, by you.

 

Hamas original charter included just what was claimed here, and more. Pretty much Elders of Zion stuff with how to solve it points. The 'amended' charter tactically dropped some of the more obvious stuff, but retains the underlying religious pronouncements used in the first, and some of the rest. Either way, as is Hamas way - the 'old' charter was not, in fact, cancelled. There's just another version, that's easier to market for outside consumption - while the ideas and rhetoric of the older version are often used in Arabic.

 

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

It happened in Ireland and also in numerous other  Countries 

Reconciliation is wonderful, but it takes compromise from both sides. How many settlers are they willing to remove from the West Bank (and turn over buildings to Palestinians with hotheads deported to Israel)?

[Morch]

2 minutes ago, placnx said:

Reconciliation is wonderful, but it takes compromise from both sides. How many settlers are they willing to remove from the West Bank (and turn over buildings to Palestinians with hotheads deported to Israel)?

How long are you going to pretend there's only one side to this conflict?

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

How is Israel 'in control' when it comes to Palestinians holding elections? Does Israel control the Gaza Strip?

 

Your claim seems to offer that the Palestinians are so passive and clueless that they cannot even have political disagreements, intrigue and the rest, without outside help.

 

Both Fatah and Hamas have reasons to avoid holding elections, mainly to do with the power plays between them and projected gains/losses.

It was always about elections for the Palestinian parliament, so Gaza and the West Bank. I seem to remember that after the 2006 elections, the Hamas winners in the West Bank were arrested by Israel. Obviously, today Fatah would not want elections because they have done a poor job in the West Bank. There could be alternatives to the two if elections could be held after the dust settles.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

Residential areas which they asked Palestinians to evacuate, while Hamas urging them to stay.

 

Hamas launched (and continues to launch) a comparable number of rockets against Israel. Doesn't seem to phase you one bit.

All that bombing happened before the evacuation order.

 

As for continuing Hamas rockets, Israel has declared war. Maybe they are using up their stocks.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

I think he's somewhat out of touch with current public sentiment is Israel. Sure, there are some similar voices, but more of a consensus Hamas need to be dealt with. While it's all very good and well saying you can't destroy and idea and so on, it is perfectly possible to hit it hard enough to curb it's powers. Terrorist organizations who are denied  secure bases of operation significantly lose power. Not forever, perhaps, but then again, it's not like there some magic solution for this anyway. Fatah was driven out from one country to another, each time losing power and traction, AQ and IS being more recent examples.

Hamas sticks to their territory and surroundings, while Al Qaeda and ISIS are international operators. This makes a huge difference and is why it will be much more difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate the Hamas - ideology and mentality - amidst the population. It's the common experience they have endured under occupation and siege.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Morch said:

Israeli public sentiment is also quite anti-government at this time. Some polls show Netanyahu's party crushing to under 20 parliament seats, some coalition partners taking a hit as well. I do not think he'll come out of this unharmed (politically). Last time Israel dealt with a similar crisis (after the 1973 war), there was a mass protest movement which eventually led to major political figures stepping down, losing votes and so on. In the present situation, the crisis occurred with a strong anti-government protest movement already firmly in place. One may hope it will bear the expected fruit.

Let's hope we stop hearing about judicial "reforms".

[Morch]

3 minutes ago, placnx said:

It was always about elections for the Palestinian parliament, so Gaza and the West Bank. I seem to remember that after the 2006 elections, the Hamas winners in the West Bank were arrested by Israel. Obviously, today Fatah would not want elections because they have done a poor job in the West Bank. There could be alternatives to the two if elections could be held after the dust settles.

How do you mean 'it'? Not clear what you imply. Did Israel prevent the Palestinians from holding new elections since 2006? Or was this long hold up the product of the Palestinians' own home grown political divide?

 

As far as I recall, Israel did arrest many Hamas candidate prior to the elections, but most were released after a short while. Post elections, there were no similar mass arrests, though Israel did cancel passage permits of some Hamas representatives. About 6 months or so after the elections, Hamas took an Israeli soldier hostage - and following that there were many arrests of Hamas members, including politicians.

 

Israel certainly did it's share of obstructing thing, but citing it as the only reason, or even main one, is incorrect.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Nick Carter icp said:

All the animosity stems from Palestinians  refusal to accept Israel's right to exist .

   Once that issue has been addressed, they can both move on from there 

This talking point is great for deflecting from any consideration of the underlying issues.

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, placnx said:

All that bombing happened before the evacuation order.

 

As for continuing Hamas rockets, Israel has declared war. Maybe they are using up their stocks.

There were bombing attacks before the evacuation order. I don't recall hospitals directly targeted. Same goes for civilians.

 

Hamas started the current mess, with a massive barrage of rockets. Hamas officials bragged about launching thousands of rockets on Israel before the Israeli response.

[placnx]

6 hours ago, placeholder said:

This is laughable. Right from the start of Israel's occupation of the West Bank, it engaged in a massive campaign to make Palestinians lead a miserable existence via deeply discriminatory laws. And destruction of Palestinians villages and homes. Denials of equal access to water. And, of course the settlers. Severely limiting the right of Palestinians to open businesses. And so forth.

When the EU funded schools built in Area C, they were demolished.

https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/education-challenges-area-c-west-bank-february-2022

[MikeandDow]

I don’t believe Hamas is the problem, I believe it’s a symptom of the problem.

The problem is the mentality and sentiment of the Arab world in general, and as a result, the Palestinian Arabs in particular. There is a tremendous amount of pride that is front and center in the Arab world, and westerners really do not relate to it or understand it. Most westerners can’t fathom that someone would forgo a significantly higher standard of living in exchange for remaining committed to a political ideology.

Even if you knock out every last Hamas member, the sentiment of the Palestinians will produce another organization which has a near identical description. All you’ll have accomplished is kicking the can down the road and possibly setting yourself up for false expectations and greater danger in the future. Being unprepared is the greatest danger, and false expectations produces unpreparedness.

The only way to prevent such a group from being formed is to completely occupy and control all the Arab cities. They did that after 1967, and there was great economic success and development. The problem was that the Arab pride was humiliated, and they eventually rejected all the goodies and took the path of war resistance instead.

Israel has no interest in controlling the Palestinians.

Instead it allows the Hamas problem to remain small, and every time it gets too big Israel goes in and smashes it down to crumbs again. They know Hamas will regroup and rebuild, but it’s safer to have the small transparent problem of Hamas than to have the large and hidden problem of a population which contains an ideological powder keg which can explode without warning.

[Morch]

12 minutes ago, placnx said:

Hamas sticks to their territory and surroundings, while Al Qaeda and ISIS are international operators. This makes a huge difference and is why it will be much more difficult, if not impossible, to eliminate the Hamas - ideology and mentality - amidst the population. It's the common experience they have endured under occupation and siege.

How is it more difficult to address a regional threat than an international one?

Further, I did not imply something like 'eliminate'. My posts on this remain within the bounds of reason - dealing a serious blow, crippling capabilities, blocking funds, getting a long reprieve - that sort of thing. I do not think that is 'impossible'. Hard, yes. What other options are there, though?

[placnx]

6 hours ago, Neeranam said:

indeed, and some here even supporting it. They have to be Jewish or their biased would make no sense.

They might be Christian Zionists, possibly more morally decrepit than normal Zionists. Some want to see Israel in possession of Jerusalem for the "End of Days" when they can go to Heaven while Jews (unless they convert) will go the other way.

[observer90210]

What will make it bad is if the OPEP+ nations get involved or take their sanctions against western nations. It will lead to a global disaster and plunge stocks, pensions and all the collateral involved. Europe is as usual foolishly taking sides and getting indirectly involved.

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Such a predictable post.

Hamas doesn't really want to kill Jews.

Hamas accepts the existence of Israel.

Who do you think you're fooling?

You said kill ALL Jews. Maybe some Jews would get killed in the process of their concept of liberating their homeland. At one point they even said that they would accept Israel under the terms of the Peace Initiative. As that was a hypothetical at the time, it was something with no obligation for them in the near future.

[Jingthing]

5 minutes ago, placnx said:

You said kill ALL Jews. Maybe some Jews would get killed in the process of their concept of liberating their homeland. At one point they even said that they would accept Israel under the terms of the Peace Initiative. As that was a hypothetical at the time, it was something with no obligation for them in the near future.

Just stop the silliness. 

As Hamas won't ever accept Israel with ANY borders, if those terrorists win, do you think the many millions of Israeli Jews, most of them born in Israel, are just going to passively leave?

Sure some would flee but the Arabs would need to KILL most of them. That's basic. Can you freakin' just admit that? 

Edited October 17, 2023 by Jingthing

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

To a lot of people, it is pretty black and white. The side that in intentionally targeting civilians is evil and needs to be eradicated.

 

The only people that see a lot of grey, are the people claiming the intentional targeting of civilians is justified.  

 

 

 

The israelis just deliberately bombed a hospital full of people ( or do you think the israelis don't know what they are bombing ), so back at you.

Are you going to claim that the intentional targeting of civilians in a hospital ( a war crime ) is justified?

The UN representative has stated that they inform the israelis of any facility where displaced Palestinians are sheltering. 

[thaibeachlovers]

12 hours ago, observer90210 said:

What will make it bad is if the OPEP+ nations get involved or take their sanctions against western nations. It will lead to a global disaster and plunge stocks, pensions and all the collateral involved. Europe is as usual foolishly taking sides and getting indirectly involved.

The israeli bombing of a hospital with 500 dead and many wounded has just united many Arab nations as seen by the joint news conference at the UN.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, placnx said:

All that bombing happened before the evacuation order.

 

As for continuing Hamas rockets, Israel has declared war. Maybe they are using up their stocks.

Seems the israelis are using the evacuation to kill more Palestinians.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/gaza-civilians-afraid-to-leave-home-after-bombing-of-safe-routes

Gaza civilians afraid to leave home after bombing of ‘safe routes’

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67133803

Dozens killed as Israeli strikes hit southern Gaza refuge areas

[thaibeachlovers]

13 hours ago, placnx said:

I doubt that Hama can be eliminated. Hopefully Biden's visit will impress on IDF planners the imperative to avoid targetting hospitals and civilian refuges. Can you cite Hamas documents about killing all Jews or a caliphate? These sound like talking points for a certain narrative, i.e. they are Isis equivalents.

 

Documents collected from dead Hamas fighters show that there was detailed planning of the places to attack. No report I've seen has mentioned Hamas documents related to the festival site, though. Was that opportunistic?

Too late to stop the israelis bombing hospitals or civilian refugees. They even killed civilians on the "safe" routes to the south.

Links posted previously.

[rabas]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Too late to stop the israelis bombing hospitals or civilian refugees. They even killed civilians on the "safe" routes to the south.

Links posted previously.

Please provide proof of your false accusations.

 

The hospital video clearly shows a solitary rocket from Gaza braking up above the hospital then falling in two pieces, one of which hits the hospital. The two pieces are probably warhead and rocket body, which is still full of explosive rocket fuel because the rocket just launched. The body likely hit the hospital causing the heavy flames seen.

 

Tech analysis: Before the rocket explodes, it starts to become brighter, eventually so bright is causes a lens flare. When it does explode, flame shoots out perpendicular to the flight path, consistent with a breakup of forward and aft sections.

 

Note, Hamas has access to very large rockets like the Badr 3.  These are usually launched one at a time as in the video.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

35 minutes ago, rabas said:

Please provide proof of your false accusations.

 

The hospital video clearly shows a solitary rocket from Gaza braking up above the hospital then falling in two pieces, one of which hits the hospital. The two pieces are probably warhead and rocket body, which is still full of explosive rocket fuel because the rocket just launched. The body likely hit the hospital causing the heavy flames seen.

 

Tech analysis: Before the rocket explodes, it starts to become brighter, eventually so bright is causes a lens flare. When it does explode, flame shoots out perpendicular to the flight path, consistent with a breakup of forward and aft sections.

 

Note, Hamas has access to very large rockets like the Badr 3.  These are usually launched one at a time as in the video.

 

 

A link was posted in the post before my first one.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/

GAZA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Gaza authorities said an Israeli air strike on Tuesday killed about 500 people at a hospital in the Palestinian enclave,

 

I see the disinformation has started already. LOL.

You think that the hospital would make available a VDO that proves Hamas blew up the hospital?

 

Damage done and may provide the turning point where international opinion turns against israel. One hopes so.

 

Anyway, israel has been so indiscriminate in it's bombing of civilians that not many will believe anything they put up to deflect criticism.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/israel-hamas-war-idf-says-civilian-deaths-inevitable-as-dozens-killed-in-southern-gaza-strikes-12986401

The United Nations added six people were killed in an airstrike on a school run by the organisation in Gaza's Al Maghazi refugee camp.

Edited October 18, 2023 by thaibeachlovers

[vinny41]

The official X account for the Israeli government edited one of their tweets, which accused the PIJ of being responsible for the devastation in Al-Ahli Hospital. In its edit, the government removed a video purporting to show the rocket launches from their tweet after social media users pointed out that the timestamp on the clip was inconsistent with the reported time of the hospital strike. 

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/misinformation-gaza-hospital-attack-1234856302/

[thaibeachlovers]

42 minutes ago, rabas said:

Please provide proof of your false accusations.

 

The hospital video clearly shows a solitary rocket from Gaza braking up above the hospital then falling in two pieces, one of which hits the hospital. The two pieces are probably warhead and rocket body, which is still full of explosive rocket fuel because the rocket just launched. The body likely hit the hospital causing the heavy flames seen.

LOL.

 

See the post by vinny41 which has the israelis walking that back already, apparently because someone was incompetent with the fake deflection.