How Thailand’s seven-decade submarine dream hit the rocks and sank

[webfact]

 

The Royal Thai Navy’s dream of acquiring its first submarine in over seven decades has been shattered once again.

 

Defense Minister Sutin Klungsang announced last Friday that the Thai government would suspend its purchase of a Chinese-built S26T diesel-electric attack submarine and accept the Navy’s proposal to spend the money on a frigate from China instead.

 

The decision came after the Chinese state-owned boatbuilder failed to procure a German-built MTU 396 diesel engine for the sub, as specified in the contract with the Thai Navy. Germany could not supply the engine due to a European Union embargo on arms exports to China that has been in place since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

 

The price of the frigate is 14 billion baht, about 500 million more than the submarine, according to the Thai defense minister. But this was the “best way out”, he said, explaining that strategic cooperation and trade ties between Thailand and China contributed to the decision to alter the plan rather than cancel the deal.

 

Some analysts described the government’s decision to swap the sub for a frigate as a diplomatic move to please China while buying time to look for a better submarine deal from another country.

 

By Thai PBS World’s Political Desk

 

Full story: Thai PBS 2023-10-26

 

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[2baht]

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

The price of the frigate is 14 billion baht, about 500 million more than the submarine, according to the Thai defense minister. But this was the “best way out”, he said

 "Best way out", I'm sure!  

[StayinThailand2much]

42 minutes ago, webfact said:

Some analysts described the government’s decision to swap the sub for a frigate as a diplomatic move to please China while buying time to look for a better submarine deal from another country.

 

Still tens of billions lying around, to be used for new toys... Never mind the sorry state of infrastructure, education, pollution, etc., etc. What country are they planning to invade/be invaded from that they need submarines?

Edited October 26, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[fondue zoo]

 

What is this, a submarine for ants??

 

 

[StayinThailand2much]

3 minutes ago, fondue zoo said:

 

What is this, a submarine for ants??

 

If they order a submarine from China, they better man it with good swimmers, Tofu-dreg and all...

Edited October 26, 2023 by StayinThailand2much

[Will B Good]

I, for one, will not be sleeping easy knowing there are no subs bumping into things in the Gulf.

[klauskunkel]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

But this was the “best way out”, he said

Oh, I believe you, lest they turn off the Mekong...

[bamnutsak]

For sixty-five of those years (1951-2016) submarines were not allowed.

 

Submariners fomented the Mahattan Rebellion. So no subs were allowed during the reign of Rama 9.

 

 

https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/2018/06/29/battlefield-bangkok-the-time-the-navy-defied-the-army-and-lost/

 

 

 

 

[ignore it]

Yeah me too.

 

When I used to try to negotiate with the Chinese it always ended up the same way.

 

Eventually I'd get to the point of saying

"Just frig it. "

 

And walk away.

 

 

[grego49]

Bummer.

[sammieuk1]

Surely the best way out was to say "do one" not do us for another 500 large 🤔

[PETERTHEEATER]

Suspended, not cancelled.

It would not surprise me if they press for both a sub and a frigate eventually.

[AgMech Cowboy]

If I was going to buy a non-nuclear submarine, it would be from the Japanese or the French. What is Thailand's idiocy with China?

[scottiejohn]

16 minutes ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

If I was going to buy a non-nuclear submarine, it would be from the Japanese or the French. What is Thailand's idiocy with China?

Why not include other countries like South Korea, Holland, Sweden etc?

[Nicholas Paul KNIGHT]

Any Naval Officer worth the name would KNOW submarines are a pointless exercise as the Gulf of THailand is TOO shallow ,but then since when did COMMON-SENSE  ever creep in TOYS FOR BOYS PURCHASES 

[connda]

Thailand doesn't need a submarine.  It's vanity.  Like so much of other Thai status bs.
"Look!!! We have submarines!!!"  Big whoop!

And what are you going to do with it? Plus your Navy just proved that perhaps it seriously needs to reassess it's mission and overall preparedness after that fiasco with the HTMS Sukhothai (FS-442). 

Buy another frigate.  That's all that is needed for patrolling the Thai coast.

[brianthainess]

5 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

 

Still tens of billions lying around, to be used for new toys... Never mind the sorry state of infrastructure, education, pollution, etc., etc. What country are they planning to invade/be invaded from that they need submarines?

Laos. 

[brianthainess]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The price of the frigate is 14 billion baht, about 500 million more than the submarine, according to the Thai defense minister.

The last report I read it would cost (3.5?) Billions more, now suddenly down to a mere 500mil more.

[Mavideol]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

But this was the “best way out”, he said,

they bend over on all 4's, they were/are afraid of the Chinese .... In China is not common policy to issue refunds, I can attest to that, they will always to stick it to you

[scorecard]

6 hours ago, 2baht said:

 "Best way out", I'm sure!  

 

But, it was reported that the sub was to be replace by a frigate or a couple of coast guard ships.

 

Haven't seen anything more re the 'coast guards ships'.

 

Would they be viable in regard to water depth?

 

Would they cost more or less than the submarines?

 

Are they really needed?  Are there any modern vessels doing this service right now?

[drgoon]

5 hours ago, AgMech Cowboy said:

If I was going to buy a non-nuclear submarine, it would be from the Japanese or the French. What is Thailand's idiocy with China?

You know...  Corruption, Brown Envelope, Holiday home in the Maldives 

[spidermike007]

The Chinese ships and subs are likely poorly made. Thankfully the Chinese navy is incapable of traveling more than 1,500 km., in ideal conditions. Likely more like 600 km. in war conditions. And they have very few deep sea ports. Their navy is a threat only to their smaller neighbors. 

 

Smart decision to let go of the sub fantasy. 

 

Thai naval forces have not operated submarines for over 60 years now, while neighboring countries, particularly those with a major dispute at sea with Thailand, such as Vietnam, are all equipped with modern submarines. 

 

This government is a whirlpool of conflicting loyalties and interests. It's leader has to manage those interests, and effectively buy the loyalties of the various parts of the armed forces. The submarines are the price he has to pay for the navy supporting him. They will end up unusable and unaffordable, as did the aircraft carrier. There is no strategic justification for the submarines. There is really no military threat to Thailand, none of the countries with which it shares a land border have the capacity for anything other than the occasional cross border firefight. If you look carefully at all the military procurement of recent years, they are all to support ambitions, and thus buy the support of the various rival groups within the armed forces. They simply do not add up to any sort of a coherent modernisation or re-equipment of what remains a largely obsolete, immobile and under trained force, able only to undertake the most mundane of garrison duties, whilst it's bloated leadership occupies itself with playing politics or their own largely unregulated business ventures.

 

The government however (or more realistically those to whom it reports) must rely upon the military to keep it in power. It was put into power for one core function; to prevent the nascent political, social and economic liberalisation of Thai society which arose with the arrival of new technologies and communications, which have allowed a (younger) population which has long been kept ill educated and dependent for any advancement on its elders and sponsors, to communicate, educate themselves and develop business independent of those elders and sponsors. The Covid crisis was in a dimension beyond that, and it's timid, chaotic "rabbit in the headlights" response to the challenges it brought were simply because it did not know how to react, other than to use some of the opportunities to exercise power, in pursuit of that core function, which the social and political restrictions they argue the disease has necessitated, and granted them.

[natway09]

Better than the aircraft carrier deal anyway.