Fertility crisis set to halve Thailand’s population in six decades

[Puccini]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

This article is very misleading. There may be a crisis but it does not appear to be a fertility crisis...

 

The Minister of Public Health obviously spoke in Thai and on https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pptvhd36.com/health/news/4258/amp I found that he used the appropriate Thai word (อัตราการเกิด) which correctly translates as "birth rate", not as "fertility rate". 

[theblether]

The damage is done. In the year 2000 there were around 3.4 million Thai women aged 20 to 25. That figure is now around 2 million. The damage is done, and within a few years it will destroy the Thai sex trade. 

[spidermike007]

7 hours ago, mfd101 said:

Um, I don't think the concept's all that hard to grasp. Fertility rates as discussed in demographics are a statistical concept not a biological one. Given infant mortality you need approx 2.1 babies on average from every woman to reproduce the current population level. Fewer than that and the population begins to decline. More than that and it increases.

 

Experience shows that, in the modern world once the trend moves in one or other direction, it's immensely difficult to make it change back. The reason being that people in the modern world make conscious lifestyle choices under various social & economic influences.

 

People in the old worlds of poverty and ignorance did not make such choices as they were unaware such things as 'choice' existed. My MIL, 6 years older than me and illiterate, never been to school, has produced some - and I use the term advisedly - 11 children across 3 marriages. My FIL, 2 years older than me & similarly afflicted, has produced 8 children across 2 marriages.

 

That goes right to the heart of the point that I'm making, we do live in a different time and we do have a choice now, and a lot of people are simply choosing not to reproduce, as shown by the statistical numbers. w

Which in my opinion is a very positive thing for mankind, we don't need the population to keep growing, and we don't need the economies to keep growing. That is silly IMF and World Bank nonsense. If the population diminishes the economy can diminish with barely any loss of jobs. 

[spidermike007]

7 hours ago, sirineou said:

 

I understand what you are saying , But I disagree why people are having less children. Most experts agree that it is a matter of economics .  

but I think you are confusing Fertility. with the fertility rate,

Perhaps it would had been less confusing if instead of fertility rate the said " the banga banga rate"😂 but that is the term experts use to describe the rate of reproduction "Fertility rate" it does not imply reasons why the banga banga rate is low, this is the subject for a different discussion  

Fertility:the quality of being fertile; productiveness.

Fertility rate: Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 

 It is the total births per woman that is causing the problem hence the fertility Crisis.  

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I understand what you're saying and you're right, but it's the total rate of birth that is creating the solution, not the problem. It is a wonderful thing for humanity, it's a wonderful thing for the planet, it's a wonderful thing on almost every level if the population starts declining. A higher population means a lower quality of life for everyone. 

[Gknrd]

Bottom line here is this. As the money dries up because of fewer working class Thai's. Ratio between retired and working Thai's will increase dramatically. Government spending will  go up due to the aging population. But, the government tax base revenue will decrease.  So what happens?. 

The government will not have a choice but to increase the tax base to try and pay for the aging Thai's. 

 

What does this mean for expats in Thailand.

1. Create a tax all policy to include all expats in Thailand, and tax all income from abroad.

2. Increase the tax rates across the board. For the expats and foreign companies doing business in Thailand

3. Increase Retirement threshold 's and close all loopholes. 

 

These policies have begun, and will slowly be implemented as government funds dry up.. You guys are the last of your kind in Thailand. It's over. 

Only thing you can hope for is you will be worm food before all of your resources are exhausted. 

 

Hopefully China will be able to help Thailand. But, that would mean giving China almost complete control over the government. 

Either way existing Western expats are in a lot of trouble. And, Western expats will no longer exist in the near future.

Edited October 31, 2023 by Gknrd

[thaibeachlovers]

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s population is predicted to plummet by half over the ensuing six decades due to a mounting fertility crisis.

It's not a crisis and it's a good thing.

I'm not discussing the ethnicity, but the fact that the world has too many people on it and needs to lose enough to return the world population to a sustainable level, which IMO is about 3 billion.

 

We did fine with that many people when I was young, and previously humanity was even able to lose multi millions in 2 major conflicts and still function.

 

IMO the only crisis is that the people we don't really want to have lots of kids are the ones having the most ie the uneducated.

 

In a world about to be subjected to a massive move away from low skilled jobs ( AI robotics ), too many unskilled people will end up without work and society will suffer for it.

[Gknrd]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's not a crisis and it's a good thing.

I'm not discussing the ethnicity, but the fact that the world has too many people on it and needs to lose enough to return the world population to a sustainable level, which IMO is about 3 billion.

 

We did fine with that many people when I was young, and previously humanity was even able to lose multi millions in 2 major conflicts and still function.

 

IMO the only crisis is that the people we don't really want to have lots of kids are the ones having the most ie the uneducated.

 

In a world about to be subjected to a massive move away from low skilled jobs ( AI robotics ), too many unskilled people will end up without work and society will suffer for it.

I am coming to Thailand and opening a noodle shop. I see a huge gap in the arena. Don't say I didn't tell you before the big boom....  Forward thinking business people like myself will pull Thailand out of this mess..   

Edited October 31, 2023 by Gknrd

[thaibeachlovers]

21 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Bottom line here is this. As the money dries up because of fewer working class Thai's. Ratio between retired and working Thai's will increase dramatically. Government spending will  go up due to the aging population. But, the government tax base revenue will decrease.  So what happens?. 

The government will not have a choice but to increase the tax base to try and pay for the aging Thai's. 

 

What does this mean for expats in Thailand.

1. Create a tax all policy to include all expats in Thailand, and tax all income from abroad.

2. Increase the tax rates across the board. For the expats and foreign companies doing business in Thailand

3. Increase Retirement threshold 's and close all loopholes. 

 

These policies have begun, and will slowly be implemented as government funds dry up.. You guys are the last of your kind in Thailand. It's over. 

Only thing you can hope for is you will be worm food before all of your resources are exhausted. 

 

Hopefully China will be able to help Thailand. But, that would mean giving China almost complete control over the government. 

Either way existing Western expats are in a lot of trouble. And, Western expats will no longer exist in the near future.

I see no reason for your negativity for expats. IMO all that will happen is that Thailand allows more workers from Cambodia and Burma, and in any event less workers will be needed as AI robotics takes over.

Provided the government moves taxation towards sales tax or such like the tax take should not decrease.

Also, the Thai government gives a very small amount in aged support etc.

 

Actually, I agree that the era of retired farang expats is over, but not for the reasons you give. I just think that Thailand is less attractive than it used to be in the golden age of the 80s and 90s, western men are slowly coming to understand the difference between bonking bar girls and being married to them, the exchange rate is <deleted>, and the Thais are making it harder to visit/ stay long time.

[thaibeachlovers]

33 minutes ago, Gknrd said:

Hopefully China will be able to help Thailand. But, that would mean giving China almost complete control over the government. 

Hmmmmm, you think they don't already?

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

 

That goes right to the heart of the point that I'm making, we do live in a different time and we do have a choice now, and a lot of people are simply choosing not to reproduce, as shown by the statistical numbers. w

Which in my opinion is a very positive thing for mankind, we don't need the population to keep growing, and we don't need the economies to keep growing. That is silly IMF and World Bank nonsense. If the population diminishes the economy can diminish with barely any loss of jobs. 

Look at who controls the IMF and the World Bank! Follow the money!

Till now the 1% needed lots and lots of poor workers to exploit ( and as they became more demanding in the west the 1% merely exported their jobs to the poor nations like China used to be ).

 

With the push to AI robotics, the 1% no longer need poor workers.

What the plan is for the surplus humans I know not, but I suspect it's not pleasant.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

As part of my nurse training I observed many births and looked after postpartum women and babies. To be honest, it doesn't surprise me that so many women are choosing to reduce the number of times they have to go through pregnancy, or even not have any kids.

 

PS. I actually enjoyed looking after new born babies as they were easy to look after, were not sick, and didn't complain or make demands.

[thaibeachlovers]

6 hours ago, theblether said:

The damage is done. In the year 2000 there were around 3.4 million Thai women aged 20 to 25. That figure is now around 2 million. The damage is done, and within a few years it will destroy the Thai sex trade. 

LOL. There will always be women that choose the easy way to riches. They may be a tad older though.

[MichaelHunt]

This does not bode well for real estate values going forward.

[sirineou]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

Yeah, I understand what you're saying and you're right, but it's the total rate of birth that is creating the solution, not the problem. It is a wonderful thing for humanity, it's a wonderful thing for the planet, it's a wonderful thing on almost every level if the population starts declining. A higher population means a lower quality of life for everyone. 

It might be a wonderful thing for the planet. and it might even be good for humanity, that's arguable , but it certainly not good for society , and our civilization in the short term. And by short term I mean several generations unstill we settle at the new normal. If we survive the transition. 

   Part of the development of our society  of the last 100 years or so has been fueled by, and in turn has fueled the hotkey puck of the population chart.  It was a bit of a vicious circle , but I don't like the term because it has negative connotations and I am not entirely sure that the results were negative. 

  We have not reached a negative growth rate yet and we are already seeing the effects because the effect is not widely spread. Some countries are declining in population , others are stable , and some have an increasing population.

So the effects is not only causing demographic concerns  with in countries, and the associated economic problems , It is also causing global demographic  concerns, that will fuel , and is fueling conflict. 

AI and automation might help alleviate some of the productivity issues, but without a system of equitable distribution of the wealth it creates it is sure to create additional problems. 

The next hundred years  will certainly be interesting and I am glad I will not be around to see them.

But I and concerned for my daughter , other family and friends who will. 

I Have structured my Union pension so that I receive less now but my wife gets' to keep 80% of it after I pass . My wife is a lot younger than me. (that should screw then LOL) but I am not sure how long my Trade Union  will be around, and the fund would be fully funded. She will also receive Social Security when she reaches age . again I am not sure how this changes will affect the viability of the SSI system. One positive for the US is that it is a desirable immigration destination , so that might help mitigate things in the US, but at the cost of other locations,

God it is going to create so many problems around the word I could write a 50 page paper on it. But I am sure I bored you enough already.  

Please excuse the typos I got to go to the farm while it is early and cool and don't have time to proofread this post. 

[PremiumLane]

12 hours ago, tkramer said:

 

I'm not 'many'...I am one.

 

But I say 'You are BS'...!

 

Where are you from...Kazakhstan...?

 

(I think your visa might be expiring soon...)

 

 

 

What?

[jacko45k]

No visa requirement for Indians should redress that issue!

[JensenZ]

18 hours ago, WHansen said:

Maybe the Thais are smarter than the average 3rd world country, realising that if you can't feed yourself and the children you already have, the situation will worsen with more mouths to feed.

Something most of the African nations are yet to grasp.

 

Thailand is not a "3rd world country". If it were, chances are you wouldn't be there/here.

[mfd101]

5 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

 

That goes right to the heart of the point that I'm making, we do live in a different time and we do have a choice now, and a lot of people are simply choosing not to reproduce, as shown by the statistical numbers. w

Which in my opinion is a very positive thing for mankind, we don't need the population to keep growing, and we don't need the economies to keep growing. That is silly IMF and World Bank nonsense. If the population diminishes the economy can diminish with barely any loss of jobs. 

I don't disagree but - in democracies in particular - getting there is very difficult (just ask the Japanese who have 'been there' for now some 30 years). Aging population, tax base, economic energy & creativity ... managing expectations in that context is very difficult for any government. China already facing it.

[redwood1]

11 hours ago, theblether said:

The damage is done. In the year 2000 there were around 3.4 million Thai women aged 20 to 25. That figure is now around 2 million. The damage is done, and within a few years it will destroy the Thai sex trade. 

 

Yes it is critical for the birth rate to rise so there will be Thai women to work in GoGo bars....Is anything more important? I think not...
 

Thai women should be paid to have children...

Edited November 1, 2023 by redwood1

[Shop mak]

Without the huge nightlife and prostitution, Thailand will be done as a tourist destination.

 

Thailand become another boring destination for temples and asia culture, without seedy nightlife.

 

TAT will have a impossible task, to spin the numbers.

[TroubleandGrumpy]

13 hours ago, NorthernRyland said:

Replacing 30 million Thais with Africans and Arabs sounds like a good way to boost GDP. I don't see how this could possibly go wrong.

 

LOL - well said.

Many countries started going down that path, and are now finally realising that was not a good idea.

Even Sweden and Francxe are starting to look at deporting them.

But woke progressive liberals and the UN still think that a boatload of 20-30 year old males are refugees.

Refugees are like those fleeing Myanmar - mainly women and children and old men.

 

[NorthernRyland]

1 hour ago, TroubleandGrumpy said:

 

LOL - well said.

Many countries started going down that path, and are now finally realising that was not a good idea.

Even Sweden and Francxe are starting to look at deporting them.

But woke progressive liberals and the UN still think that a boatload of 20-30 year old males are refugees.

Refugees are like those fleeing Myanmar - mainly women and children and old men.

 

it's an existential crisis at this point. Did you ever see the videos of the immigrant prime ministers of Scotland and now Ireland standing in parliament and complaining there are too many white people in government? They're literally importing their replacements and will lose total control of their governments once they become minorities.

[fondue zoo]

22 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

It's not bad, after all there are too many of us living on this planet.

 

The planet can handle the numbers, the problem is our clever quasi ape brains have sidestepped the natural balance mechanisms that "nature" develops to deal with an uppity species.

Perfectly fine for a species to do that if they have the tech and motivation to create a new equilibrium that doesn't screw up everything else.

The problem mostly appears to be a lack of motivation on the part of we humans.

 

 

Blessed be the Tængmo Baby!

 

[stoutfella]

Sounds like Thailand needs even more (young, virile) tourists!

[itsari]

On 10/31/2023 at 10:30 AM, 2baht said:

 

     You just don't get it, do you! 😏

I get it most days .

 

[2baht]

5 minutes ago, itsari said:

I get it most days .

 

 

    Salt in your noodles?

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, redwood1 said:

 

Yes it is critical for the birth rate to rise so there will be Thai women to work in GoGo bars....Is anything more important? I think not...
 

Thai women should be paid to have children...

No one should be paid to have children, and as educated women don't want as many or any it ends up with a large underclass of uneducated youths causing trouble as is happening in a country I know well.

[theblether]

11 hours ago, redwood1 said:

 

Yes it is critical for the birth rate to rise so there will be Thai women to work in GoGo bars....Is anything more important? I think not...
 

Thai women should be paid to have children...

 

Did you read my post as bemoaning the end of the sex trade? It's already in a crashing death spiral. 

[theblether]

16 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

LOL. There will always be women that choose the easy way to riches. They may be a tad older though.

 

You need to be touched in the head if you think the granny brigade will save the Thai sex trade. 

 

 

 

 

[Puccini]

6 hours ago, stoutfella said:

Sounds like Thailand needs even more (young, virile) tourists!

 

Your reference to virile tourists indicates that you are referring to male tourists. However, it is really more women of childbearing age that are needed for an increase in the birth rate, and foreign female tourists would be unlikely to bring about this increase in the Thailand's birth rate.