I just have a very very bad feeling

[Ben Zioner]

Celsius, you got a degree in pessimism.

[Ben Zioner]

7 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

@Celsius What are the risks that scare you most?

 

War with China or Russia?

Recession?

Climate Change?

Financial markets collapse?

Global Pandemic?

 

 

 

Incurable Gonorrhoea?

[frantick]

What does your wife sell? If it's staple food-related, then I'd be worried too. If not, then I'm not so worried. Look at lazada; 100 types of air fryers, coffee machines, etc. Do we really need that many choices? (And I'm a capitalist) 

 

If plastic and tin sales are down, I'm not too worried. 

[johnnybangkok]

17 hours ago, Celsius said:

I am a type of person that used to laff at the old guys saying Thailand has changed. 

 

Now I am that guy.

 

I just have a feeling something is really off, not just with Thailand, but the whole damn world. 

 

My wife who has been employed from a foreign company working from home has barely been able to close any sales. This is unheard off for her and her business.

 

She was also contacted by her old (Japanese) company to come back and work for them because since she left they had zero sales. They even offered her a promotion. However, I really think she may fail with her great comeback as the factories and distributors seem broke, only set on buying cheap parts from China.... which in all fairness can now compete with most of the products from Japan and Europe.

 

I just think there will be some major financial events next year that will perhaps change the rules on how expats live in Thailand. I am not simply talking about the new tax law in Thailand. I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand.

 

Whatever happens, I think I will be better off back home if $hit hits the fan.

 

Yes, I suppose I won't be able to "attach myself to my wife's tax return".

 

And please spare me the obvious ones about door hitting me on derriere.

Oh great, another boomer bemoaning their situation! Were you all born pessimists or did you just naturally grow into it?

By any metric you care to mention - infant mortality, life expectancy, accelerated GDP, income inequality, living in a democracy, woman's equality, minority inclusion, hell there's even less wars - the world is a better place to live than at any time in history. Granted, there are some major concerns knocking around but are they of any more concern than the West facing off against Russia during the cold war or hyper inflation in the 70's? The world has always had it's issues but it's how you yourself view them that determines your state of mind. If you want to find fault then you always will. Lighten up. Grab a beer (or a smoke) and just enjoy what you can.  

[georgegeorgia]

1 hour ago, Bday Prang said:

Generally referred to as the good old days too.  Seriously I wouldn't worry too much, we'll all be dead and buried before the proverbial hits the fan properly 

Hopefully won't be too long for some !

[Mike Lister]

32 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Some real news for a change. And it's only going to get worse. A huge correction is likely coming. 

 

Last quarter, the euro zone economy contracted 0.1%, official data has shown, and December's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - seen as a good gauge of economic health - suggested activity has now declined in every month of this quarter. That would mark two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, meeting the technical definition of recession.

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-activity-declines-further-dec-pmi-2023-12-15/

Here's some forecasts for global growth for 2024, from people who study and understand such things, see if you can spot the consensus.

 

https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/economic-outlook-a-mild-slowdown-in-2024-and-slightly-improved-growth-in-2025.htm#:~:text=The Outlook projects global GDP,as it has in 2023.

 

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023

 

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/the-global-economy-will-perform-better-than-many-expect-in-2024.html

 

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook

[Pouatchee]

17 hours ago, Celsius said:

Press 1 if you are calling outside United States.

 

BAM

 

                                                                                      

 

[Bday Prang]

6 minutes ago, georgegeorgia said:

Hopefully won't be too long for some !

 

Couldn't agree more georgina, 

You said you had blocked me,    how disappointing that is not the case,  do you not know how to? 

 Still no apology for accusing me of being a "closet pedo"  ?  come on you know you you want to

[Pouatchee]

3 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Scaremongering garbage that deserves nothing but contempt.

 

not that i agree, or like @Celsius at all, but you lou... all you do is bai, and attack other people here on AN. how long you been a member/in thailand?

member : 2 years

thailand? who knows

judging by your psyche here bub, me thinks you are the type who kicks puppies when you get home

[GypsyT]

This is what scares me;

 

"More Facts About the Crisis in Europe By mid-year 2023, there were 89,100 estimated arrivals via the Mediterranean and Northwest African maritime routes. Compared to the same period last year, there was a 75 percent increase in arrivals at the end of June 2023."

 

Soon they come in millions!

They ruin EU's social and economical system.

The US gets same invasion from South.

 

 

 

[johnnybangkok]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

No it's actually quite simple, I would like to talk to just a few retailers who say their business is good, either in Thailand or in the US. I haven't been meeting many. I have friends who are real estate developers in the US, and they own shopping centers and malls, and they all say the same thing, retail is way down and a lot of the stores are really hurting and having a hard time making rent. 

 

Find a car dealer who's willing to be honest with you and ask him how many cars did you sell last month? Find any retailer that sells medium to high-end products and ask them the same question, how much business did you do last month? 

Much less to do with the economy than the domination by online retailers. People aren’t buying less; they’re just buying differently. 
The days of huge malls and thriving high streets is well and truly over and yes, if I was in traditional bricks and mortar retail, I’d be very worried. 

[Mike Lister]

1 hour ago, Prubangboy said:

The funny thing is:

 

Most people on this forum never had it so good.

 

In their entire lives.

Nonesence

[Liverpool Lou]

1 hour ago, Pouatchee said:

5 hours ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Scaremongering garbage that deserves nothing but contempt.

 

not that i agree, or like @Celsius at all, but you lou... all you do is bai, and attack other people here on AN. how long you been a member/in thailand?

member : 2 years

thailand? who knows

judging by your psyche here bub, me thinks you are the type who kicks puppies when you get home

So tell me what was incorrect in my response to his message.  

 

How long have I been here?  Irrelevant and certainly none of your business but, just to sate your nosy busybodying, 30 years.

[Mike Lister]

4 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

So tell me what was incorrect in my response to his message.  

 

 

Your response lou was, as always, over the top and out of all proportion to what was said. That poster wrote: "I just think there will be some major financial events next year that will perhaps change the rules on how expats live in Thailand. I am not simply talking about the new tax law in Thailand. I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand". He was expressing a feeling rather than clearly saying that something specific will happen, to which you replied, " Scaremongering garbage that deserves nothing but contempt". Goodness me!

 

And when Trump was in office, the rules for making Social Security pension payments to non-resident green card holders was quietly changed. Despite living and working in the US for 15 years and contributing to the SSc system throughout, retirement payments were taxed at source and this was, for the first time ever, not recoverable by filing a tax return, in effect  a 30% reduction in pension payments, a penalty for not living in the US and for not being a US citizen. So the idea that nations might not pay make state pension payments to citizens overseas, is not as far fetched as you might think. 

[Pouatchee]

21 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

So tell me what was incorrect in my response to his message.  

 

How long have I been here?  Irrelevant and certainly none of your business but, just to sate your nosy busybodying, 30 years.

 

over the top  as always

 

30 yrs here? go back home, you been here too long. or maybe go back trolling on teekboor. you would fit right in

[Liverpool Lou]

5 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

21 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

So tell me what was incorrect in my response to his message.  

 

 

Your response lou was, as always, over the top and out of all proportion to what was said. That poster wrote: "I just think there will be some major financial events next year that will perhaps change the rules on how expats live in Thailand. I am not simply talking about the new tax law in Thailand. I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand". He was expressing a feeling rather than clearly saying that something specific will happen, to which you replied, " Scaremongering garbage that deserves nothing but contempt". Goodness me!

 

And when Trump was in office,

As I said uncorroborated, scaremongering garbage and not "over the top", what I posted was 100% accurate. 

 

What has Trump and the US got to do with this?  That's rhetorical, obviously.

[Liverpool Lou]

4 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

24 minutes ago, Liverpool Lou said:

So tell me what was incorrect in my response to his message.  

 

How long have I been here?  Irrelevant and certainly none of your business but, just to sate your nosy busybodying, 30 years.

 

over the top  as always

But absolutely accurate.

[Liverpool Lou]

6 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

30 yrs here? go back home, you been here too long. or maybe go back trolling on teekboor. you would fit right in

That's all you can say?  So sad.

[Mike Lister]

1 minute ago, Liverpool Lou said:

As I said uncorroborated, scaremongering garbage and not "over the top", what I posted was 100% accurate. 

 

What has Trump and the US got to do with this?  That's rhetorical, obviously.

The poster had said that sovereign nations might possibly change long established rules for making the equivalent of state pension payments and you regarded this is "scaremongering and uncorroborated garbage". I'm just pointing out that they, the USA, already have. 

[NoshowJones]

5 hours ago, Lacessit said:

Voters certainly can do something about a government that messes with their pensions.

 

Politicians in Australia learned long ago to avoid offending the pensioner vote. To do otherwise still is electoral suicide.

That may apply in Australia, but not in the UK. Is the UK not refusing to give it's OAP's in Thailand and some other countries their annual pension increases and getting away with it? It certainly isn't affecting it's OAP's votes.

[Ben Zioner]

1 hour ago, GypsyT said:

This is what scares me;

 

"More Facts About the Crisis in Europe By mid-year 2023, there were 89,100 estimated arrivals via the Mediterranean and Northwest African maritime routes. Compared to the same period last year, there was a 75 percent increase in arrivals at the end of June 2023."

 

Soon they come in millions!

They ruin EU's social and economical system.

The US gets same invasion from South.

 

 

 

Yep, my line of thinking is that the future lies in a total North Atlantic isolationism. And if the French want to join the [bloody] W$gs then can build a tunnel under the Mediterranean.

[JackGats]

Quote: "I am willing to go as far to say that pensions will not be paid unless you are a resident of your country or some kind of reporting requirement to your government, similar to 90 days here in Thailand."

 

Our woke-fem governments don't want us to be far away spending our money on foreign women. Instead we should be ATM-slaving for the man-hating post-menopausal parasites back home.

 

There might even be a no-passport policy like in the former communist block, with the World becoming a mirror image of the cold war: freedoms for the Russians and Chinese, fettering for the so-called Free World. 

[BritManToo]

6 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

That may apply in Australia, but not in the UK. Is the UK not refusing to give it's OAP's in Thailand and some other countries their annual pension increases and getting away with it? It certainly isn't affecting it's OAP's votes.

2 years in Oz before you can claim a portable pension.

NZ even worse, pension -1/40 for every working year you lived outside NZ.

[SAFETY FIRST]

Omg, just what AN Forum needs, another doom and gloom posting.

 

Keep it positive guys 👍

It could be much worse. 

 

Got this from my daughter this morning. 

 

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0rYeRrsjXG/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

 

 

[spidermike007]

3 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

A whole 0.1%, wow!

 

There is a technical recession and then there is a recession that is really a recession.

How about the Dow at 3400? Unemployment at 36%?

 

Just wait. 

[Celsius]

3 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

Oh great, another boomer

 

You really should not begin your recital with ASSumptions.

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, johnnybangkok said:

Much less to do with the economy than the domination by online retailers. People aren’t buying less; they’re just buying differently. 
The days of huge malls and thriving high streets is well and truly over and yes, if I was in traditional bricks and mortar retail, I’d be very worried. 

True. But alot of online sales are down too. I know many who sell online. All of them are reporting lower sales this year. 

[Fat is a type of crazy]

8 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

How about the Dow at 3400? Unemployment at 36%?

 

Just wait. 

Bloody hell that's a grim prediction. What would cause that. 

[save the frogs]

they're talking about UBI even in thailand .... not just western countries.

 

can anyone interpret this? 

 

 

[Mike Lister]

2 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

True. But alot of online sales are down too. I know many who sell online. All of them are reporting lower sales this year. 

Depends on the product I suppose, my wife sells online and has had her best two months ever.