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Thailand Faces Economic Question: China and EV Cars


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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Have you seen an update as to when the BYD factory will open in Thailand?

Earlier reports suggested Q2 this year, but with only June left that is highly unlikely to happen.

BYD's sales locally has dropped significantly so if they want to produce 150,000 cars annually they will have to achieve the 40% really fast to export their way out.

 

BYD's EV plant in Thailand to start production in Q3 2024

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/29/byd-ev-plant-thailand-to-start-production-q3/

I did see a news item last week which showed people queuing for job interviews

It will be interesting to see how the negotiations go with Thailand and EU on FTA

as normal the EU looks at FTA more than just trade they want to see changes in the country as well on various issues that have nothing to do with trade

I am sure the mindset of some European countries with FTA agreements is to recreate the past of European missionaries want countries to adopt European Values

https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/30/empowering-democracy-through-the-eu-thai-trade-agreement/#:~:text=Thailand aims to finalise a,trade interests and democratic values.

Edited by vinny41
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1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

BYD's EV plant in Thailand to start production in Q3 2024

https://cnevpost.com/2024/03/29/byd-ev-plant-thailand-to-start-production-q3/

I did see a news item last week which showed people queuing for job interviews

It will be interesting to see how the negotiations go with Thailand and EU on FTA

as normal the EU looks at FTA more than just trade they want to see changes in the country as well on various issues that have nothing to do with trade

I am sure the mindset of some European countries with FTA agreements is to recreate the past of European missionaries want countries to adopt European Values

https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/04/30/empowering-democracy-through-the-eu-thai-trade-agreement/#:~:text=Thailand aims to finalise a,trade interests and democratic values.

Where does the 40% number come from? It seems rather low.

With BYD sales falling below 1,000 vehicles/month they need exports for that plant to make sense.

 

Screenshot_20240527_082230_Chart Maker.jpg

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IIRC the whole idea behind the government’s scheme to entice Chinese EV manufacturers here is to get them manufacturing for export.

 

I’m sure they have plans to source the required local content here, they are probably already opening those “local” companies to do that.

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7 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Where does the 40% number come from? It seems rather low.

With BYD sales falling below 1,000 vehicles/month they need exports for that plant to make sense.

 

Screenshot_20240527_082230_Chart Maker.jpg

If a Chinese car meets the 40% local content requirement and is certified as originating from Thailand, it will be exported within and outside the ASEAN region through the ASEAN FTA network.

https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/made-thailand-chinese-evs-could-fill-auto-market

The 40% is the current minimum requirement I am sure that % number will increase over time

If you look at the EU-UK  TCA which applies to EU selling EV to UK and vice versa

The post-Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) says that, to qualify for zero tariffs, at least 55% of the value of EVs needs to be from the European Union or Britain, with values of 65% for battery cells and modules and 70% for battery packs

However, it contains two transition periods, the first with EVs requiring 40% local content and battery packs and components 30%, the second for 2024-2026 at 45% for EVs, 50% for battery cells and modules and 60% for battery packs.

Import tariffs of 10% apply for EVs falling short of those requirements.

The Commission's proposal is to extend the first transition period for three years to 2027, when the full local content requirements of the TCA will apply.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-set-delay-tighter-rules-electric-vehicle-trade-with-britain-2023-12-06/

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16 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

IIRC the whole idea behind the government’s scheme to entice Chinese EV manufacturers here is to get them manufacturing for export.

 

I’m sure they have plans to source the required local content here, they are probably already opening those “local” companies to do that.

Its something that they were discussing last week all EV manufacturers know if they want to export via FTA agreements 40% local content is a requirement for now

https://www.thaipr.net/business/3473532

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15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

IIRC the whole idea behind the government’s scheme to entice Chinese EV manufacturers here is to get them manufacturing for export.

 

I’m sure they have plans to source the required local content here, they are probably already opening those “local” companies to do that.

Good point, the sneaky Chinese will probably set up local companies themselves, stick 4 Thai made tyres on and call it Made in Thailand 🇹🇭

However, it is worth noticing that all those plans were made 2-3 years ago when the EV hype was in overdrive. With falling sales numbers, who will take that export?

BYD is also setting up a factory in Indonesia, so they will produce locally. 

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4 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Good point, the sneaky Chinese will probably set up local companies themselves, stick 4 Thai made tyres on and call it Made in Thailand 🇹🇭

However, it is worth noticing that all those plans were made 2-3 years ago when the EV hype was in overdrive. With falling sales numbers, who will take that export?

BYD is also setting up a factory in Indonesia, so they will produce locally. 

Expect EU will slap tariffs of between 30-40% on Chinese vehicles  before July 4th 2024

 

European Commission warns BYD, SAIC and Geely that their lack of cooperation frees its hands to impose higher penalties, letters seen by POLITICO show.

The letters, addressed to EV makers BYD, SAIC and Geely and all dated April 23, reach the same conclusion: that the trio did not provide enough information on subsidies, operations and supply chains.

Working without these inputs, the Commission says, means it will need to revert to the concept of “facts available.” This usually means, in practice, that it has a free hand to slap higher duties on the imported products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-electric-vehicle-uncooperative-probe-european-commission-letters/

US markets are off limits due to 100% tariffs

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4 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Expect EU will slap tariffs of between 30-40% on Chinese vehicles  before July 4th 2024

 

European Commission warns BYD, SAIC and Geely that their lack of cooperation frees its hands to impose higher penalties, letters seen by POLITICO show.

The letters, addressed to EV makers BYD, SAIC and Geely and all dated April 23, reach the same conclusion: that the trio did not provide enough information on subsidies, operations and supply chains.

Working without these inputs, the Commission says, means it will need to revert to the concept of “facts available.” This usually means, in practice, that it has a free hand to slap higher duties on the imported products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-electric-vehicle-uncooperative-probe-european-commission-letters/

US markets are off limits due to 100% tariffs

Wow, that is some eye-watering lofty numbers. Hopefully just a translation error, but I like how BYD use future tense about 2023.

 

Mr. Yubin Ke, General Manager of BYD Auto (Thailand) Co., Ltd., said that in 2023 BYD will be the world's number 1 selling new energy vehicle manufacturer and has cumulative sales worldwide of more than 7. million vehicles in March 2024.

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7 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Expect EU will slap tariffs of between 30-40% on Chinese vehicles  before July 4th 2024

 

European Commission warns BYD, SAIC and Geely that their lack of cooperation frees its hands to impose higher penalties, letters seen by POLITICO show.

The letters, addressed to EV makers BYD, SAIC and Geely and all dated April 23, reach the same conclusion: that the trio did not provide enough information on subsidies, operations and supply chains.

Working without these inputs, the Commission says, means it will need to revert to the concept of “facts available.” This usually means, in practice, that it has a free hand to slap higher duties on the imported products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-electric-vehicle-uncooperative-probe-european-commission-letters/

US markets are off limits due to 100% tariffs

Nice that we are getting some modern Oxygen from China 🇨🇳.  That old Oxygen was no good.

 

Omoda alongside Jaecoo are two Chery brands that are only marketed outside China to support its export strategy. In some markets, the marque shares the same dealers with the Chery brand, and in most cases it shares the same dealers with Jaecoo.[4]

According to Chery, the letter "O" from Omoda is derived from the word "oxygen", while "Moda" means "modern".[5] Chery president Zhang Guibing mentioned that Omoda will serve customers who are part of the "Fashion Elite", a group of fashion-oriented customers that are "dynamic, avantgarde, and fashion-centric".[6][7] In some markets, the Omoda is positioned as a luxury brand compared to the more mainstream Chery brand.[8]

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On 5/26/2024 at 8:28 AM, WDSmart said:

An example is the Wuling Nano

 

On 5/26/2024 at 8:28 AM, WDSmart said:

If you have found any very small mini-EVs with RHD from any country that I could buy in Thailand, please provide a link. I'd appreciate that a lot.

 

 

You could try putting “Wuling Thailand” into Google: 

 

https://www.wulingthai.com/

 

If you can stretch to ฿500,000 I would recommend the Neta V

 

IMG_1709.webp.27f24d50866da6f5f652e7c1f481ffcc.webp

 

 

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14 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

Expect EU will slap tariffs of between 30-40% on Chinese vehicles  before July 4th 2024

 

European Commission warns BYD, SAIC and Geely that their lack of cooperation frees its hands to impose higher penalties, letters seen by POLITICO show.

The letters, addressed to EV makers BYD, SAIC and Geely and all dated April 23, reach the same conclusion: that the trio did not provide enough information on subsidies, operations and supply chains.

Working without these inputs, the Commission says, means it will need to revert to the concept of “facts available.” This usually means, in practice, that it has a free hand to slap higher duties on the imported products.

https://www.politico.eu/article/china-electric-vehicle-uncooperative-probe-european-commission-letters/

US markets are off limits due to 100% tariffs

BYD will bypass EU tariffs by opening a plant in Turkey,  right?

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Just now, ExpatOilWorker said:

BYD will bypass EU tariffs by opening a plant in Turkey,  right?

Correct

Turkey is in negotiations with Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers BYD Co. and Chery Automobile Co Ltd. for factory investments in the country, a step that could help the companies boost sales to Europe, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

“We would like to complete the talks as soon as possible. We have come a long way with both of them,” Minister of Industry and Technology Fatih Kaçır told Bloomberg in an interview in Ankara. Separate negotiations with SAIC Motor Corp., which owns MG, and Great Wall Motor Co. are also underway, he said.

https://www.turkishminute.com/2024/05/18/turkey-had-talk-with-chinese-ev-manufacturer-for-factory-investments-report/

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6 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

 

 

You could try putting “Wuling Thailand” into Google: 

 

https://www.wulingthai.com/

 

If you can stretch to ฿500,000 I would recommend the Neta V

 

IMG_1709.webp.27f24d50866da6f5f652e7c1f481ffcc.webp

 

 

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

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9 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

There is a mini-ev due to be launched in Thailand q3 2024

https://autolifethailand.tv/nex-dayun-ev-mini-suv/

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12 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

Get a second hand Smart car.

https://www.one2car.com/en/cars-for-sale/smart/thailand_bangkok-metropolitan

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13 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

I've searched online for all these cars and even exchanged emails with some of them. \All the ones I am interested in do not come in right-hand drive.

The price is not the issue; it's the type of car. I want a mini-mini car that will seat two, have a little storage room to accommodate a golf bag and some groceries, and can go at least 70 or 80 kph, preferably 90, on the highway.

If anyone else has any suggestions, please let me know.

Wuling Air EV

The entire vehicle is imported from Indonesia (PT SGMW Motor Indonesia) by EV Primus Company Limited. It comes with a quality guarantee for the vehicle and battery for 5 years or 50,000 kilometers.

https://www.headlightmag.com/2023-06-29-official-price-wuling-air-ev-thailand/

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Wow, that is some eye-watering lofty numbers. Hopefully just a translation error, but I like how BYD use future tense about 2023.

 

Mr. Yubin Ke, General Manager of BYD Auto (Thailand) Co., Ltd., said that in 2023 BYD will be the world's number 1 selling new energy vehicle manufacturer and has cumulative sales worldwide of more than 7. million vehicles in March 2024.

There is a US think tank that thinks the EU should slap import tariffs of between 50-55%

https://rhg.com/research/aint-no-duty-high-enough/

While the numbers may seem eye watering current tariffs on EU cars exported to Thailand is 80%

Edited by vinny41
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I do like the look of many of the EV's on the road from China but would never buy one now.  I'll keep my truck and hopefully in 5 years there will be data showing that these cars are durable.  I have my serious doubts and the China rep for making beautiful copies but with terrible tech under the hood  is a major concern.  Regardless, IMO EV's are the future and only hope I can confidently buy one years down the road. I have a feeling the current buyers are going to have terrible let downs.

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51 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

 

 

You could try putting “Wuling Thailand” into Google: 

 

https://www.wulingthai.com/

 

If you can stretch to ฿500,000 I would recommend the Neta V

 

IMG_1709.webp.27f24d50866da6f5f652e7c1f481ffcc.webp

 

 

Thai bro in law has one of these. He is a lawyer that travels across the country every week chasing legal fees.  Spending 30k on gas some months was the reason for the purchase.  In his case, if it lasts a few years and he can sell for 200k he did well consider the fuel savings.  I hope it works out for him. I'm an interested onlooker...

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Posted (edited)
On 5/25/2024 at 8:20 AM, TorquayFan said:

Yes China poses a very serious threat to Thailand's car manufacturing industry and the Thai Govt would IMO, be well advised to take firm action to protect this sector.

 

The insidious influence of China doesn't end there. Take little Chantaburi - it now has 5 branches of Mr DIY which has sucked the life out of many local traders. The 'CJ' chain has proliferated too. China finances infrastructure projects and the 'High Speed Railway' is underway.

 

The dollar has been set aside. Thailand's fevered tourist policy encourages massive numbers of Chinese visitors.

 

This is madness for Thailand. I see China as a bad actor, taking over in the South seas and they are an imminent threat to Taiwan.

 

Thailand has to assert it's position against this major neighbour, a World power, and not just roll over.


Whilst I agree with most of your post about China, I disagree that Thailand should protect its Japanese dominated auto manufacturing industry. It will be in decline for the next 15 years.

 

EV uptake is not only inevitable, it’s government mandated across the major auto markets.

 

If Thailand doesn’t grasp it’s share it will be taken up by other Asian countries.

 

in an ideal world, the existing Japanese auto makers here would be leading the EV revolution.

 

They failed to notice it was coming and invest accordingly and now it’s too late.  I detest Tesla because it’s run on the whim of one man.  Unfortunately, until last year Toyota was the same run by Akio Toyoda who hates EV’s with a passion.  Consequently their big bucks are going into lobbying against EV uptake as was posted here last week. 
 

Thailand has done exactly the right thing by attracting EV automakers to Thailand, it’s sad that only the Chinese took them up on their offer.

Edited by JBChiangRai
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1 hour ago, JBChiangRai said:


Whilst I agree with most of your post about China, I disagree that Thailand should protect its Japanese dominated auto manufacturing industry. It will be in decline for the next 15 years.

 

EV uptake is not only inevitable, it’s government mandated across the major auto markets.

 

If Thailand doesn’t grasp it’s share it will be taken up by other Asian countries.

 

in an ideal world, the existing Japanese auto makers here would be leading the EV revolution.

 

They failed to notice it was coming and invest accordingly and now it’s too late.  I detest Tesla because it’s run on the whim of one man.  Unfortunately, until last year Toyota was the same run by Akio Toyoda who hates EV’s with a passion.  Consequently their big bucks are going into lobbying against EV uptake as was posted here last week. 
 

Thailand has done exactly the right thing by attracting EV automakers to Thailand, it’s sad that only the Chinese took them up on their offer.

It looks like that Thailand has made the correct decision by supporting both ICE and EV manufacturing in Thailand

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has assured Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida that Thailand will not abandon Japanese makers of conventional vehicles during its transition to an electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturing hub.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40032908

At the moment more needs to done to bring the EV supply chain on board in Thailand

As stated before majority of jobs and domestic added value is currently in existing ICE  manufacturing not EV

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3 hours ago, vinny41 said:

Wuling Air EV

The entire vehicle is imported from Indonesia (PT SGMW Motor Indonesia) by EV Primus Company Limited. It comes with a quality guarantee for the vehicle and battery for 5 years or 50,000 kilometers.

https://www.headlightmag.com/2023-06-29-official-price-wuling-air-ev-thailand/

Thanks! These look perfect for me, and some of them in the images are shown with right-hand drive. I'll check them out! 

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1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

It looks like that Thailand has made the correct decision by supporting both ICE and EV manufacturing in Thailand

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has assured Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida that Thailand will not abandon Japanese makers of conventional vehicles during its transition to an electric-vehicle (EV) manufacturing hub.

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/policies/40032908

At the moment more needs to done to bring the EV supply chain on board in Thailand

As stated before majority of jobs and domestic added value is currently in existing ICE  manufacturing not EV

There is not much Srettha can do if the Chinese EV manufacturers flood a shrinking domestic Thai market with cheap EVs.

Don't Japanese nationals already get 90 days visa except on arrival? This seems a very insignificant gesture. 

 

Meanwhile, the Japanese leader asked if Thailand could boost travel convenience by offering Japanese investors visa-free entry.

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