Allan Lichtman, the Nostradamus of U.S. presidential predictions has made his FINAL pick

[Thingamabob]

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

Another false apologetic on behalf of the Confederacy. There was no mass migration of blacks north after the war. So no shortage. The mass migration of blacks from the South to the North , known as the Great Migration, only began in about 1910.

Great Migration (African American)

From the earliest U.S. population statistics in 1780 until 1910, more than 90% of the African-American population lived in the American South,[6][7][8] making up the majority of the population in three Southern states, namely Louisiana (until about 1890[9]), South Carolina (until the 1920s[10]), and Mississippi (until the 1930s[11]). But by the end of the Great Migration, just over half of the African-American population lived in the South, while a little less than half lived in the North and West.[12] 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Migration_(African_American)

As I said, northern manufacturers wanted access to southern labour. 

[newnative]

11 hours ago, Cameroni said:

He said Al Gore would be president too. His method looks a bit ridiculous.

 

Plus he's a historian, not a statistician.

     He was actually correct in calling the 2000 election for Gore.  Unfortunately, due to a number of factors beyond his control, including several instances of very poorly designed ballots, voter confusion, suppression of the vote due to improper deletion of  largely Democratic voter registrations, etc., even though the majority of the Florida voters thought they were voting for Gore, the voter tally ended up too close to call, with Gore ultimately declared the winner when the Supreme Court ordered the recount halted.

    It's interesting that the tv networks, using voter exit polling, were correct in initially calling Florida for Gore.  As I said, the majority of the Florida voters in 2000 thought they were casting their ballots for Gore, and that was reflected in the exit polling.  However, once so many votes for Gore were not counted due to some of the above factors, Florida became too close to call later in the evening.   Lichtman and Gore were both victims of a combination of things that should not have happened in the Florida presidential election that year.  But, I count him technically correct with his 2000 prediction. 

    

[Cameroni]

16 minutes ago, newnative said:

     He was actually correct in calling the 2000 election for Gore.  Unfortunately, due to a number of factors beyond his control, including several instances of very poorly designed ballots, voter confusion, suppression of the vote due to improper deletion of  largely Democratic voter registrations, etc., even though the majority of the Florida voters thought they were voting for Gore, the voter tally ended up too close to call, with Gore ultimately declared the winner when the Supreme Court ordered the recount halted.

    It's interesting that the tv networks, using voter exit polling, were correct in initially calling Florida for Gore.  As I said, the majority of the Florida voters in 2000 thought they were casting their ballots for Gore, and that was reflected in the exit polling.  However, once so many votes for Gore were not counted due to some of the above factors, Florida became too close to call later in the evening.   Lichtman and Gore were both victims of a combination of things that should not have happened in the Florida presidential election that year.  But, I count him technically correct with his 2000 prediction. 

    

 

Looking at it I agree, he did predict correctly that Al Gore would win the popular vote, and his method always made clear it was predicting the popular. Despite Bush winning the electoral college Gore had won the popular vote even after the Supreme Court intervention.

 

So he only got the Trump vote wrong in 2016.

[renaissanc]

He's just a normal human being like you and I. He has no special powers to see or predict the future. But ... if he is right I will laugh at Americans for years and years for being the stupidest population in the world, and I will wish them good luck with their new Communist government. Happy poverty and crime days, Americans!  LOL! (The world will be stuck with World War 3 afterwards, unfortunately.)

[trainman34014]

14 hours ago, proton said:

 

50/50 and most of them were pretty easy to predict, he's going to look red faced in November. Harris is honestly the stupidest politician I have ever seen.

None of them are stupid; they all know how to get rich and stay rich !

[Patong2021]

1 hour ago, renaissanc said:

He's just a normal human being like you and I. He has no special powers to see or predict the future. But ... if he is right I will laugh at Americans for years and years for being the stupidest population in the world, and I will wish them good luck with their new Communist government. Happy poverty and crime days, Americans!  LOL! (The world will be stuck with World War 3 afterwards, unfortunately.)

 

What communists. The Democrat Party and its  election platform are not even remotely  close to communism. Why call it communist? Do you even know what a communist economic or social policy is? Are you really this uneducated?

[earlinclaifornia]

15 hours ago, Cameroni said:

He said Al Gore would be president too. His method looks a bit ridiculous.

 

Plus he's a historian, not a statistician.

Being as the SC stopped the counting, his one miss is spectacular.

[earlinclaifornia]

12 hours ago, proton said:

 

Trump sees blacks as equals and treats them as such, so has no need for an excuse. Lincoln could have had congress free the slaves in the Union in 1861, but chose not to, slavery was still legal in some Union states. Lincoln is the President people make excuses for. Although a brilliant speaker he was a racist, even by the standards of the day. 

Birthered the President of the United States

[earlinclaifornia]

2 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Looking at it I agree, he did predict correctly that Al Gore would win the popular vote, and his method always made clear it was predicting the popular. Despite Bush winning the electoral college Gore had won the popular vote even after the Supreme Court intervention.

 

So he only got the Trump vote wrong in 2016.

He said Trump would win in 2016

[Cameroni]

13 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

He said Trump would win in 2016

 

No, he said Trump would win the popular vote. He didn't. He won the electoral college. So Lichtman was wrong in that instance.

Edited September 7 by Cameroni

[maesariang]

1 hour ago, Patong2021 said:

 

What communists. The Democrat Party and its  election platform are not even remotely  close to communism. Why call it communist? Do you even know what a communist economic or social policy is? Are you really this uneducated?

What is price controls? What is open borders?

[earlinclaifornia]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, he said Trump would win the popular vote. He didn't. He won the electoral college. So Lichtman was wrong in that instance.

The winner was the what he said

[Cameroni]

Just now, earlinclaifornia said:

The winner was the what he said

 

No, the winner of the popular vote was Hilary Clinton. 

 

Trump won the electoral College.

 

Lichtman had predicted Trump would win the popular vote.

[earlinclaifornia]

2 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

No, the winner of the popular vote was Hilary Clinton. 

 

Trump won the electoral College.

 

Lichtman had predicted Trump would win the popular vote.

You are wrong and deserve to prove it with a link.

[johnc925]

This absolutely won't settle well in America. Trust me this will not end peacefully.

[Inderpland]

18 hours ago, proton said:

 

50/50 and most of them were pretty easy to predict, he's going to look red faced in November. Harris is honestly the stupidest politician I have ever seen.

You haven't been to any Trump rallies, have you.

[soalbundy]

18 hours ago, Lacessit said:

He seems to have a lot of statues commemorating him.

 

Do you think Trump will ever get a statue, or have a ship named after him?

A relationship maybe.

[soalbundy]

Trump will be tweeting his fingers raw now.

[Cameroni]

3 hours ago, earlinclaifornia said:

You are wrong and deserve to prove it with a link.

 

You're wrong actually.

 

And his famous 2016 prediction that Mr. Trump would win, a prediction very few people made, was actually his one mistake. Mr. Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton, though he won in the Electoral College.

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/5/allan-lichtman-renowned-presidential-prognosticato/

[Irish star]

On 9/6/2024 at 11:45 AM, maesariang said:

Huh?

Really CC Huh ? We are just ignorant, Teach us Mae , Please your knowledge is Much greater than ours , Your questions are What I say , Phenomenal lol

[Irish star]

6 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

What communists. The Democrat Party and its  election platform are not even remotely  close to communism. Why call it communist? Do you even know what a communist economic or social policy is? Are you really this uneducated?

Boomer still playing the Commie game ffs 

[Irish star]

7 hours ago, renaissanc said:

He's just a normal human being like you and I. He has no special powers to see or predict the future. But ... if he is right I will laugh at Americans for years and years for being the stupidest population in the world, and I will wish them good luck with their new Communist government. Happy poverty and crime days, Americans!  LOL! (The world will be stuck with World War 3 afterwards, unfortunately.)

Wow how did we become Number 1 in The World,  if so ignorant 

[Patong2021]

9 hours ago, maesariang said:

What is price controls? What is open borders?

 

The USA does not have open borders and does not have full price controls. 

The Democrat party does not propose open borders or full price controls.

Price controls and open borders are not "communist".

Price controls are  warranted when there is an imperfect supply system and are used to prevent excessive profit taking when there are  quasi monopolistic supply systems.  

Much of the cost control measures are state regulated. For example, rent increase controls, utility rate increases, insurance rates.

 

The EU  has open borders between member countries. Is Hungary or Poland communist?

Price controls are not in themselves "communist". There are cost caps on some products such as insulin to prevent the small number of  suppliers of a relatively inexpensive product from charging vulnerable people an inflated price. The manufacturer is still allowed a healthy profit.

 

[earlinclaifornia]

14 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

You're wrong actually.

 

And his famous 2016 prediction that Mr. Trump would win, a prediction very few people made, was actually his one mistake. Mr. Trump lost the national popular vote to Hillary Clinton, though he won in the Electoral College.

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/sep/5/allan-lichtman-renowned-presidential-prognosticato/

Clearly the artical dose say that. I would like to see Allen stating that.

[Cameroni]

4 hours ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Clearly the artical dose say that. I would like to see Allen stating that.

 

If you read his book on his 13 keys you will see him stating clearly that his 13 keys predict the popular vote. However, you won't see him stating that now:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

Lichtman tried to pull a fast one in 2016, and in order to try and make his prediction fit the circumstances he suddenly claimed he was predicting the outcome of the Electora College, however, his books and papers do not support his claim. They rather state that his keys predict the popular vote.

 

Now, most likely Lichtman, aware of the 2016 result, will again claim he's predicting Electoral College. Since most people agree this is how Trump would most likely win again, not via the popular vote.

[Patong2021]

11 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

If you read his book on his 13 keys you will see him stating clearly that his 13 keys predict the popular vote. However, you won't see him stating that now:

 

In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

Lichtman tried to pull a fast one in 2016, and in order to try and make his prediction fit the circumstances he suddenly claimed he was predicting the outcome of the Electora College, however, his books and papers do not support his claim. They rather state that his keys predict the popular vote.

 

Now, most likely Lichtman, aware of the 2016 result, will again claim he's predicting Electoral College. Since most people agree this is how Trump would most likely win again, not via the popular vote.

 

Another conspiracy. Had the outcome agreed with your political bias, the man would be lauded as a genius.

[Cameroni]

7 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Another conspiracy. Had the outcome agreed with your political bias, the man would be lauded as a genius.

 

Not a conspiracy at all. Lichtman is on record that his 13 keys predict the popular  vote. He is also on record in 2016 for claiming otherwise, that he was predicting electoral college, however, his books and papers don't support his claim.

 

Since Lichtman tried to switch positions in 2016, and suddenly claimed he was predicting Electoral College not popular vote, the fact that he was trying to fit his prediction to the circumstances is the only logical conclusion.

 

"In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

Unless you think Wikipedia is peddling conspiracy Patong?

[maesariang]

11 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Another conspiracy. Had the outcome agreed with your political bias, the man would be lauded as a genius.

Genius? It is a 2 horse race.

[bamnutsak]

He won ~ $100,000 on Tic Tac Dough back in the day...

 

Nice 'stache.

 

 

[earlinclaifornia]

15 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Not a conspiracy at all. Lichtman is on record that his 13 keys predict the popular  vote. He is also on record in 2016 for claiming otherwise, that he was predicting electoral college, however, his books and papers don't support his claim.

 

Since Lichtman tried to switch positions in 2016, and suddenly claimed he was predicting Electoral College not popular vote, the fact that he was trying to fit his prediction to the circumstances is the only logical conclusion.

 

"In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome. Lichtman claims that in 2016, he switched to predicting the outcome of the Electoral College,[40] but this claim is not supported by his books and papers from 2016, which explicitly stated that the Keys predict the popular vote."

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

 

Unless you think Wikipedia is peddling conspiracy Patong?

I agree that he has all along in the media consistanly maintain just the winner, in his words