With the Thai baht the lowest exchange rate in over a year. I am curious how other expats are dealing with their monthly budgets. In my case had planned to buy a motorbike. Anything below 30 baht to the USD dollar everything outside survival comes to a stop. 33 to 34 baht to the dollar I can deal with that.

 

 

When one uses the 65k+ per month retirement extension of stay protocol, that's what one has to transfer in every month regardless of the favorable/not favorable exchange rate.

34 minutes ago, Mitkof Island said:

With the Thai baht the lowest exchange rate in over a year. I am curious how other expats are dealing with their monthly budgets. In my case had planned to buy a motorbike. Anything below 30 baht to the USD dollar everything outside survival comes to a stop. 33 to 34 baht to the dollar I can deal with that.

 

 

Yes, it's not a pleasant situation. I exchanged dollars for Baht a few times-over the last year or so and built up a bit of Baht reserves. Most of the exchanges were done in the 35-37 range.
 

But I've stopped exchanging for now and probably won't do any more until perhaps the Baht loses some strength again and hopefully gets back to around 34.5 to the dollar. This might happen once the BOT starts cutting Thai interest rates.

For the moment the dollar could continue to weaken though. In just 4 months, since May 1, the Baht has gone from 37 to only 33 to the dollar. So the dollar has lost 10% against the Baht so far. But I do think it should now hold somewhere around 33.
 

My prediction during this past summer was that it would fall to 33 by the end of the year, once the Fed started cutting interest rates, but that drop happened even quicker than expected. The Baht may swing a bit lower still against the dollar, but eventually it should get back to around a base of 33 I hope.
 

The BOT should also start cutting interest rates soon too, maybe within the next 3 months, which will then weaken the Baht again and hopefully push the dollar back up a bit and back to around 34.5 to the dollar.

 

Fingers crossed we don't revisit those days of 29-31 Baht to dollar range. The 10% drop in dollar value has probably badly hurt local exports and tourism already, which are two of the biggest segments of the Thai economy. So I'm would think the government is not so pleased about the sharp rise of the Baht either.

 

This touches on some of what I just mentioned:

 

 

After ATM fees even able to take out 30,000 baht at a time barely holding at 32 baht at the moment. But thanks for your information. You and are think about the same. What I do not understand with Thailand in so much debt for years now I would have thought the banks would have crashed already. Another bigger repeat of 1997 is on the way. Am I the only person in Thailand not in debt?

 

I just hope it never gets as low as 29 again. After bank had its "cut" i was taking home maybe high 27 baht per dollar. Thank goodness the Wife turned me onto Wise🤣

3 hours ago, Terrance8812 said:

Yes, it's not a pleasant situation. I exchanged dollars for Baht a few times-over the last year or so and built up a bit of Baht reserves. Most of the exchanges were done in the 35-37 range.

Me too, when it was 45-47 I built up a 6 month reserve.

I am sitting on cash that should have been in Thailand already. But NO! Until the Baht depreciate at least 10 percent, it stays where it is. In a bank in Europe.

6 minutes ago, harryviking said:

I am sitting on cash that should have been in Thailand already. But NO! Until the Baht depreciate at least 10 percent, it stays where it is. In a bank in Europe.

 

Looks like you missed the boat a few months ago, when the exchange rate for most major currencies was about 10% better than today

7 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

With the Thai baht the lowest exchange rate in over a year. I am curious how other expats are dealing with their monthly budgets. In my case had planned to buy a motorbike. Anything below 30 baht to the USD dollar everything outside survival comes to a stop. 33 to 34 baht to the dollar I can deal with that.

 

 

The Baht to Euro exchange has in the past been a lot lower than it is today and I managed OK then, also my pension from Germany has increased a lot from then so I don't have any problems with the exchange rate as it is now, it would have to go considerably lower before it affects me and I don't anticipate that.

I remember an exchange rate of Bt56 to the USD in Jan 1998!

Doesn't impact me one bit as I transferred baht at 24.18 to A$ in July. What I always try to do is transfer at a 3 month high on XE, which will not be anytime soon.

 

Btw, good news is our 800k baht in bank for retirement visa is worth 8.3% more than 3 months ago 😀

 

Not a problem I am content with 44-45 baht to the British pound 🤑

3 minutes ago, shackleton said:

Not a problem I am content with 44-45 baht to the British pound 🤑

Except it's in the 43's at the moment 😀

2 minutes ago, Pattaya57 said:

Except it's in the 43's at the moment 😀

Still content at 43s when I transfer from the UK

Get a higher rate no Thai bank charges transfer in Sterling 🤑

24 minutes ago, Pattaya57 said:

Btw, good news is our 800k baht in bank for retirement visa is worth 8.3% more than 3 months ago

 

Good point, but no benefit unless you plan to leave Thailand and transfer it back to a foreign currency.

 

But the issue that is there are some foreigners on retirement visas who have their 800K Baht in a foreign currency deposit equivalent in Thailand. Suddenly the value of those deposits are nearly 10% less. So some of those people might find their deposits no longer meet the 800K Baht equivalent requirement and may now need to bring in more money to meet the guideline. This is why I think it isn't a good idea to keep your retirement visa money in Thailand in a foreign currency because you will always be subject to currency value fluctuations. People in those situations should always keep their balance at 15% higher than the 800K Baht equivalent to be safe. 

8 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

Am I the only person in Thailand not in debt?

No!

Simple. Earn income in Thai baht. 

 

This is why I chose an educated woman and not a bargirl. Extra 100,000b a month is a nice addition with no exchange rate worries.

31 minutes ago, shackleton said:

Not a problem I am content with 44-45 baht to the British pound 🤑

When I was first planning my retirement in Thailand the exchange rate was approx 55:1 so I used 50:1 for my plans then BREXIT struck & it dipped below 39 so I changed to using 35:1 as my “Worse Case” scenario. 

 

When I finally pulled the trigger (Dec 2019) it was around 40:1 but I’d already “Feathered my Nest” (from SGD at around 22.5:1) for >3 years so didn’t need to bring much over from the UK (£6,000 pa exchanged with a mate who works here so he could top up his pensions in the UK).
 

From another thread I read that 25:1 might be the “Sensible” number for USD. 
 

Fortunately I'm not living hand to mouth. Granted things are 15% more expensive than they were a few months ago at 37 and change to the baht to a dollar. But that was a short-lived pleasure, and at 33/1, I don't feel that I'm at risk of becoming homeless, nor being able to live a rather delightful lifestyle. 

 

So it is acknowledged and it is felt but it's not a crisis. 

2 hours ago, thaiowl said:

I remember an exchange rate of Bt56 to the USD in Jan 1998!

 

 And one year before that ---you got just 25 Baht to USD --- on that bases ---feel lucky..............

All currencies these days are fiat currencies.  They are backed by nothing durable.  They are backed by public confidence, and that relies upon the supply of a currency being related to the availability of goods and services.  "Money-printing", e.g. through ever-expanding unproductive debt, obviously increases the money supply resulting in its devaluation (commonly referred to as "inflation").

 

Financialisation of government debt - central bank loans to government to cover ever deepening budget deficits - is likely to get worse in the foreseeable future.  So be prepared!

 

In the days when paper money was promissory notes to supply gold, its purchasing power fluctuated only slightly over centuries.

 

Gold is difficult to wrest from the ground, and cannot be conjured up out of thin air.  It is a hard asset.  Not a credit note.

 

The down-side of gold is that it does not produce interest or dividends, but on the contrary there is a cost of storage and insurance (except to the extent that one may hold a small amount in a secure place at home)

 

Putting some cash into the shares of a gold royalty/streaming or established mining company (NOT an exploration company - highly speculative) can be a way of deriving some income from gold investment.  With leverage - up or down - in capital value, depending upon whether the gold price is rising or falling.

 

When purchasing bullion that is to be stored and insured, it is important to make sure that the dealer transfers it to a reputable, specialised bullion storage company and that you personally are listed as the owner.

 

Some Thais lost their stored gold during the crisis of 1997.  Their dealers retained the gold in their own name [it was not "allocated"], perhaps holding it as security against borrowing, and when they went bankrupt their creditors took the gold.

 

Gold that is held in secure vaults is very quickly and easily sold in on-line dealing, using the same dealers through which it was purchased.

 

If interested, it may be worth perusing these sites :

 

https://www.bullionvault.com/

 

https://swpcayman.com/

 

https://www.goldcore.com/

 

Thai Baht Exchange Rate So Low How Are You Dealing With It?

 

Seen it down around 29 more than once.  I don't worry about it.  Thailand is going to debase the THB, just give it time.  Heck, they're now borrowing THB in order to pay the interest on the national debt.
Don't worry - it's a self-correcting problem.

Personally, I hope the Baht swiftly rises to parity with the USD.   That way, my Thai wife and I can move to America as millionaires!

All kidding aside,  why does the Baht have an inverse value to the USD and other western currencies?  Why can’t the Baht go down when western currencies go down?  I hardly think the Baht can be considered “risk on” and such a compelling value for traders.

19 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

All kidding aside,  why does the Baht have an inverse value to the USD and other western currencies?  Why can’t the Baht go down when western currencies go down?  I hardly think the Baht can be considered “risk on” and such a compelling value for traders.

 

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/factors-behind-surge-thai-baht-and-why-authorities-bangkok-are-worried

Take it as it is. What else ?????😳

10 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

When one uses the 65k+ per month retirement extension of stay protocol, that's what one has to transfer in every month regardless of the favorable/not favorable exchange rate.

Yes, I have transferred $2200.00 a month for near 13 years now. Clears the 65K hurdle even now but I did count on the bit extra to use as a cushion for extras.

I guess it will clear out some of the rif-raff. 

3 minutes ago, retarius said:

I guess it will clear out some of the rif-raff. 

Were overdue a spring clean.