Trump's Trade Policies Threaten Thai Economy

[webfact]

Image composite: ASEN NOW

 

Thailand is facing potential economic challenges as former US President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs are set to impact global trade, specifically targeting countries like China, and indirectly affecting others reliant on export.

 

Trump has proposed a significant increase in tariffs, with a 20% general tariff on imports and a hefty 60% on imports from China.

 

While his aim is to revitalise domestic jobs in the US, the ripple effects could spell trouble for Thailand, heavily reliant on its export sector.

 

The US is Thailand's number one export destination, accounting for 17% of its export market. China's share stands at 12%, and indirectly could be as high as 17% via re-exports through neighbouring countries like Malaysia and Singapore.

 

These countries form essential channels for Thai products to reach global markets, making them crucial partners for Thailand's economic stability.

 

Thailand, with exports constituting 65.4% of its GDP, would be significantly affected by any slowdown in global trade, especially with such heavyweight markets being targeted by US tariffs.

 

During the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand's over-reliance on exports was evident when the economy contracted by 6.1%, compared to an Asean average of 3.2%.

Furthermore, Trump's potential implementation of strict 'Rules of Origin' could further complicate matters, potentially limiting Thailand's capacity to mitigate tariff impacts by producing goods on behalf of foreign companies like China.

 

These rules demand that a certain percentage of a product's components are sourced locally to qualify for tariff reductions, making it harder for countries like Thailand to bypass higher tariff costs through manufacturing collaborations.

 

As China and Thailand both grapple with domestic issues - China with its real estate crunch and Thailand with household debts - the added pressure of altered US trade policies could push both economies towards recession, highlighting the global interconnectedness that makes such protectionist policies significantly impactful, writes Chartchai Parasuk, PhD, for Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2024-11-14

 

 

[Hawaiian]

Thailand can asks for exemptions or reductions in the tariffs.  Any concessions made should be reciprocal.

[spidermike007]

It's very likely that his threats to level 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports are just a bluff intended to get China to the negotiating table. If he actually implemented that it would have utterly devastating results not only on Thailand's economy but on the American economy, and it would likely result in a reinvigoration of a massive inflationary cycle.

 

It would be spectacularly ignorant policy. 

[ModdaPunk]

The only thing threatening the Thai economy ?

Thai people - especially morally bankrupted elites.

Trump has nothing to do with it.

Thailand has been facing low growth and huge inequalities for a very long time.

The exodus of Thai educated youth started a long time ago.

And let's not talk about thai import taxes...

Light'em up. About time.

 

Edited November 14 by ModdaPunk

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

Trump has proposed a significant increase in tariffs, with a 20% general tariff on imports and a hefty 60% on imports from China.

Thailands played the tariff and luxury tax game, time something got pushed back

 

[Jingthing]

They also threaten the U.S. economy and world economy in general.

The man is a talented demagogue for sure but he's a total moron about economics.

[John Drake]

7 hours ago, webfact said:

These rules demand that a certain percentage of a product's components are sourced locally to qualify for tariff reductions, making it harder for countries like Thailand to bypass higher tariff costs through manufacturing collaborations.

 

That's right Thailand, you're not going to be able to skirt US trade sanctions through Thai In Name Only companies that are essentially Chinese.

[PETERTHEEATER]

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

They also threaten the U.S. economy and world economy in general.

The man is a talented demagogue for sure but he's a total moron about economics.

We'll send our Keir Starmer over to give him a few tips......😋

[NoDisplayName]

13 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

They also threaten the U.S. economy and world economy in general.

The man is a talented demagogue for sure but he's a total moron about economics.

 

Well, we're in a pickle now!

 

How to choose between ChinaBad!™  and TrumpBad!™

[Jingthing]

Just now, NoDisplayName said:

 

Well, we're in a pickle now!

 

How to choose between ChinaBad!™  and TrumpBad!™

You're in a pickle.

[BangkokReady]

26 minutes ago, NoDisplayName said:

Well, we're in a pickle now!

 

How to choose between ChinaBad!™  and TrumpBad!™

 

Rather unsurprisingly, the Trump-haters (communists) are actually quite keen on China...  🤔

[transam]

Just now, BangkokReady said:

 

Rather unsurprisingly, the Trump-haters (communists) are actually quite keen on China...  🤔

"Trump-haters are Communists", could well be, though there are a few Commies on here, but they are Trump bootlickers, so you maybe a bit confused.

Plus, I can't think of anyone on here that actually "hates" Trump, he's a dip-stick, yes, but hate.......🤔

[CallumWK]

1 hour ago, spidermike007 said:

It's very likely that his threats to level 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports are just a bluff intended to get China to the negotiating table.

 

You mean he may succeed in something the liberals never managed?

 

[John Drake]

The most fundamental way that the US rewards its friends and allies is with access to its markets. If you're going to align with China and BRICS and join in dedollarization, then you're not going to get easy access to US markets.

[RichardColeman]

Good for Trump ! If this means this foolish government will lift tariffs on western foods being imported I am all for it. Thailand all take take and not give . tax tax tax. Hopefully a boot up the proverbial will do them good

[tomazbodner]

39 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Good for Trump ! If this means this foolish government will lift tariffs on western foods being imported I am all for it. Thailand all take take and not give . tax tax tax. Hopefully a boot up the proverbial will do them good

If US taxes Thai exports, it is far more likely Thailand will slap another 20% or more on US imports than decrease current taxes...

[bubblegum]

1 hour ago, BangkokReady said:

 

Rather unsurprisingly, the Trump-haters (communists) are actually quite keen on China...  🤔

Like Putin loving Trump? 

[WHansen]

Fair play but should also be 60% for Thailand.

[BangkokReady]

25 minutes ago, bubblegum said:

Like Putin loving Trump? 

 

I'm sure a comma or hyphen might help this sentence out, but it's not making a heap of sense as it is...  😬

[oustaristocrats]

4 hours ago, ModdaPunk said:

The only thing threatening the Thai economy ?

Thai people - especially morally bankrupted elites.

Trump has nothing to do with it.

Thailand has been facing low growth and huge inequalities for a very long time.

The exodus of Thai educated youth started a long time ago.

And let's not talk about thai import taxes...

Light'em up. About time.

 

 

Yes, like the western car important tax, it is 328% !   And for 2nd hand cars, it was even banned by General Prayut, I believe in 2013. Unbelievable.  Even Thai living abroad, returning home can't bring back their own car.  Mathematically this is called an infinite tariff.

 

[tomazbodner]

18 hours ago, bubblegum said:

Like Putin loving Trump? 

I think it's more the other way around.

[John Drake]

Hey, Thailand, how's that application to join BRICS going? And hasn't Thailand joined a local group already to exclude the dollar? There goes that $10 billion trade surplus with the US.

Quote

Trump, in a Truth Social post, said: “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”https://apnews.com/article/trump-dollar-dominance-brics-treasury-8572985f41754fe008b98f38180945c3

 

[herfiehandbag]

On 11/14/2024 at 3:21 PM, spidermike007 said:

It's very likely that his threats to level 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports are just a bluff intended to get China to the negotiating table. If he actually implemented that it would have utterly devastating results not only on Thailand's economy but on the American economy, and it would likely result in a reinvigoration of a massive inflationary cycle.

 

It would be spectacularly ignorant policy. 

The trouble with making massive trumpeted bluffs is that the other side realises it too, and maybe tempted to call that bluff!

[spidermike007]

2 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

The trouble with making massive trumpeted bluffs is that the other side realises it too, and maybe tempted to call that bluff!

Trump is an isolationist. He runs the risk of the world isolating the US. Wouldn't that be a thing to witness? 

[herfiehandbag]

33 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Trump is an isolationist. He runs the risk of the world isolating the US. Wouldn't that be a thing to witness? 

The world is infinitely more interconnected in this century than it was when the USA last went through "isolationism". The risk is that he/USA ends up rather like apartheid era South Africa - militarily and politically unassailable but widely regarded ( racial policies aside, although there perhaps wait and see) as a rather bizarre set up, verging on a pariah.

[Gknrd]

I say let them go down the toilet with China. Thailand made their bed. lie in it.

[KhunLA]

Highly unlikely any tariffs will be be raised for TH.   Since one of the few that allows USA use of it's military bases in SEA.

 

Along with not wanting to push TH to stronger ties with CN, that it already is leaning to.

[NoDisplayName]

57 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

The world is infinitely more interconnected in this century than it was when the USA last went through "isolationism". The risk is that he/USA ends up rather like apartheid era South Africa - militarily and politically unassailable but widely regarded ( racial policies aside, although there perhaps wait and see) as a rather bizarre set up, verging on a pariah.

 

South Africa wasn't completely isolated.

 

They were given nukular weapons designs and tritium gas from the other fascist apartheid regime to assist them with developing nukular weapons for their nukular test in '79.

 

Of course, South Africa's leader wasn't indicted for war crimes.........