Surprise Surge: Thai Economy Outperforms Expectations with 3% Growth

[snoop1130]

 

Thailand steeped everyone in a river of unexpected cheer today by announcing a dazzler of an economic performance. Official figures, freshly delivered to the public sphere on the 18th of November, show that the Thai economy grew by an impressive 3% in the third quarter of 2021 compared to the previous year. This stunning hike leaves the previously predicted 2.6% growth rates trailing in its wake.

 

In a show of economic prowess, Thailand, the behemoth of Southeast Asia’s economy, also manifested a seasonally adjusted growth of 1.2% from July to September. In contrast, experts had only banked on a humble 0.8% growth. These developments cast a striking contrast to the previous quarter's rather ordinary growth narrative of just 2.2% annual and 0.8% quarterly rates.

 

These robust figures, emerging from the vaults of the National Economic and Social Development Council, serve as a beacon of hope in an era of global economic doubts. Anticipations had not been high, owing to the shaky condition of global markets and regional stresses. Yet in the face of these odds, Thailand has sprung back with astonishing energy.

 

 

Internally, domestic demand and certain exports sectors have proved hardier than anticipated. These promising trends have been further propped up by external factors. Government stimulus, a rejuvenation in consumer spending, and a resurgence in the tourism sector, a traditional linchpin of Thailand's economy, have collectively revved up the economy, leading it to fire on all cylinders.

 

But amid this sunny landscape lurk concerns that could potentially cloud this jubilant outlook. Industry mavens caution against rocky external trends such as international trade conflicts and possible global slowdowns. As one sceptical analyst, preferring to remain unnamed, declared, "We must remain vigilant of external factors that could impact future growth."

 

In a nutshell, while the third quarter results paint a buoyant picture for Thailand's economy, the future hinges precariously on external circumstances. Preserving this momentum will be a tug of war, requiring both constant vigilance and smart economic strategies.

 

File photo for reference only

 

-- 2024-11-18

 

 

[ikke1959]

due to the expensive THB....but what in orders and products??

[Purdey]

What does it do to help household economy? Not much as the rich people make the big money, not the poor.

[Isaan sailor]

Vietnam will eat Thailand’s lunch.

[nglodnig]

My wife is here full-time now that'll explain it 🙂 

[nglodnig]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

in the third quarter of 2021

.....um typo here or  is the department working on three year figures?

[BayArea]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

In a show of economic prowess, Thailand, the behemoth of Southeast Asia’s economy

🤣🤣🤣

[ModdaPunk]

4 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thai economy grew by an impressive 3% in the third quarter of 2021

 

Pre-pandemic Thailand's GDP was 16 trillion baht.

In 2021, it was 15 trillion baht.

In 2022, it was around 17 trillion baht.

 

Now if you adjust for inflation, it's probably closer to 16 trillion baht in 2022. Which mean full recovery relative to the pre-pandemic situation.

 

So "impressive" is relative.

 

GDP estimates for 2023 is 17.5 trillion baht.

That's roughly 2.5% growth.

 

The behemoth of SE Asia...

Yeah, right.

 

 

[Patong2021]

Why the negative comments? There was growth and it is in keeping with worldwide results.  The world's advanced economies have lower projected growth rates.  As per the World Bank; 

Global growth is projected to hold steady at 2.6% in 2024 before edging up to an average of 2.7% in 2025-26. That is well below the 3.1% average in the decade before COVID-19. The forecast implies that over the course of 2024-26 countries that collectively account for more than 80% of the world’s population and global GDP would still be growing more slowly than they did in the decade before COVID-19.  Overall, developing economies are projected to grow 4% on average over 2024-25, slightly slower than in 2023. Growth in low-income economies is expected to accelerate to 5% in 2024 from 3.8% in 2023. However, the forecasts for 2024 growth reflect downgrades in three out of every four low-income economies since January. In advanced economies, growth is set to remain steady at 1.5% in 2024 before rising to 1.7% in 2025.

 

Thailand is doing just fine and has nothing to apologize for.

 

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Vietnam will eat Thailand’s lunch.

 

Is that before or after they eat the cats and dogs and anything else that moves?

[ModdaPunk]

Just now, Patong2021 said:

Why the negative comments?

 

Because the entire article is total biased crap.

 

Thailand's growth rate was 3-4% for 2023.

Vietnam 6-7%.

Philippines 6-7%.

Indonesia 5-6%.

 

Thailand's economy ain't performing well.

Certainly not well enough to offset the impact of its rapidly ageing population.

 

[Patong2021]

13 minutes ago, ModdaPunk said:

 

Because the entire article is total biased crap.

 

Thailand's growth rate was 3-4% for 2023.

Vietnam 6-7%.

Philippines 6-7%.

Indonesia 5-6%.

 

Thailand's economy ain't performing well.

Certainly not well enough to offset the impact of its rapidly ageing population.

 

 

Yes, Thailand could do better, but in comparison to the rest of the world it is doing fine. 

Thailand cannot control macroeconomic conditions that are working against the economy. It is no secret that the global demand for Thai goods and services is weak. With the exception of  some product lines like  petroleum, it is like that all over the world.  Thailand is an export economy. Thailand's key trade partners  like the USA  are erecting trade barriers with more to come (e.g. tariffs in the USA). 

 

The forum has had multiple articles on the problems of Thai consumer debt. saying it is too high. Thai consumers are struggling with household debt and cannot pick up the slack as Thai exports are negatively impacted. Thailand's problems are similar to those of Australia, Canada, USA etc.  where  consumers are locked into high credit card debt . (For example, if I look at the SCB Visa card; . Interest Rate for Cash Advance and Default Interest Rate for Purchase of Goods and Services are 16% per year)   

Banks through the Credit Card companies have allowed consumers to get trapped in debts that they can't support. Until the interest rates are capped, and credit pulled back, consumer debt can't be fixed. Until then, Thailand has to muddle along and content itself with a mediocre performance that keeps the country afloat.

[ModdaPunk]

10 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Yes, Thailand could do better, but in comparison to the rest of the world it is doing fine. 

Thailand cannot control macroeconomic conditions that are working against the economy. It is no secret that the global demand for Thai goods and services is weak. With the exception of  some product lines like  petroleum, it is like that all over the world.  Thailand is an export economy. Thailand's key trade partners  like the USA  are erecting trade barriers with more to come (e.g. tariffs in the USA). 

 

The forum has had multiple articles on the problems of Thai consumer debt. saying it is too high. Thai consumers are struggling with household debt and cannot pick up the slack as Thai exports are negatively impacted. Thailand's problems are similar to those of Australia, Canada, USA etc.  where  consumers are locked into high credit card debt . (For example, if I look at the SCB Visa card; . Interest Rate for Cash Advance and Default Interest Rate for Purchase of Goods and Services are 16% per year)   

Banks through the Credit Card companies have allowed consumers to get trapped in debts that they can't support. Until the interest rates are capped, and credit pulled back, consumer debt can't be fixed. Until then, Thailand has to muddle along and content itself with a mediocre performance that keeps the country afloat.

 

You can't compare an emerging economy with advanced economies.

It's much easier for advanced countries to finance themselves.

Thailand doesn't have that luxury.

So no, Thailand ain't doing fine at all imo.

That why this article pisses me off.

It's giving people a distorded view of reality.

 

Thailand doing better than expected is great news but if that info ain't contextualize, it becomes deceptive.

[soalbundy]

10 hours ago, Purdey said:

What does it do to help household economy? Not much as the rich people make the big money, not the poor.

Unlike the Western democracies who are concerned for the welfare of the common folk 

[Purdey]

1 hour ago, soalbundy said:

Unlike the Western democracies who are concerned for the welfare of the common folk 

Perhaps you forgot that most of Europeans have social security, healthcare and unemployment protections. 

[soalbundy]

9 minutes ago, Purdey said:

Perhaps you forgot that most of Europeans have social security, healthcare and unemployment protections. 

Not given freely but fought for over decades and some countries like the UK are trying to squeeze them so that it's just enough not to starve on, It's certainly better than what exists in the USA or Asia but vigilance is required. In the West, like elsewhere, the rich get richer while poverty increases, like America, we now have the working poor who rely on food banks to survive.

[Purdey]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Not given freely but fought for over decades and some countries like the UK are trying to squeeze them so that it's just enough not to starve on, It's certainly better than what exists in the USA or Asia but vigilance is required. In the West, like elsewhere, the rich get richer while poverty increases, like America, we now have the working poor who rely on food banks to survive.

Yes, these things are fought for - by liberal, so-called woke politicians. National Insurance (NI) started in 1921 in the UK via the efforts of David Lloyd George, the Liberal Chancellor of the Exchequer, not by struggle. Lloyd George studied Germany, which had compulsory NI since 1884. Longer than a few decades.

There are 78 countries with universal healthcare (Countries with Universal Healthcare 2024), and none have ever demanded an end to it. Again, this is due to stupid politicians. This includes Thailand (Thaksin's 30 Baht scheme is counted as universal healthcare).

 

Poverty, as you alluded to, is the result of modern governments simply not caring, e.g. the USA, or not being able to afford it, like some countries in Africa. 

[soalbundy]

3 minutes ago, Purdey said:

Yes, these things are fought for - by liberal, so-called woke politicians. National Insurance (NI) started in 1921 in the UK via the efforts of David Lloyd George, the Liberal Chancellor of the Exchequer, not by struggle. Lloyd George studied Germany, which had compulsory NI since 1884. Longer than a few decades.

There are 78 countries with universal healthcare (Countries with Universal Healthcare 2024), and none have ever demanded an end to it. Again, this is due to stupid politicians. This includes Thailand (Thaksin's 30 Baht scheme is counted as universal healthcare).

 

Poverty, as you alluded to, is the result of modern governments simply not caring, e.g. the USA, or not being able to afford it, like some countries in Africa. 

Rights for the working population were certainly fought for, starting with the Industrial revolution. Universal Healthcare is certainly not stupid! it should be a human right! My MIL just had cataract surgery done on both eyes for free, if you as a falang had it done I believe it costs between 80,000 and 100,000 Baht which my MIL certainly couldn't afford, it's made a huge difference to her life.

[Purdey]

5 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Rights for the working population were certainly fought for, starting with the Industrial revolution. Universal Healthcare is certainly not stupid! it should be a human right! My MIL just had cataract surgery done on both eyes for free, if you as a falang had it done I believe it costs between 80,000 and 100,000 Baht which my MIL certainly couldn't afford, it's made a huge difference to her life.

You may have gone off-topic just a little bit. And you have completely misunderstood my support for universal healthcare.

[BigStar]

14 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

Why the negative comments?

 

Always. Basically, we don't like anything that contradicts our Thailand Perpetual Death Spiral narrative that embodies our long-held prophecy that, any day now, Thailand's economy will collapse because it doesn't love farangs enough just for being their lovable selves. The inconceivably torturous ongoing mistreatment of the Golden Egg Layers is intolerable. Thais are stupid. 

 

So, as expected, our old buzzards have simply gathered as usual to see how many ways they can poop on the latest favorable news.

 

 

 

 

[Patong2021]

9 hours ago, Purdey said:

Yes, these things are fought for - by liberal, so-called woke politicians. National Insurance (NI) started in 1921 in the UK via the efforts of David Lloyd George, the Liberal Chancellor of the Exchequer, not by struggle. Lloyd George studied Germany, which had compulsory NI since 1884. Longer than a few decades.

There are 78 countries with universal healthcare (Countries with Universal Healthcare 2024), and none have ever demanded an end to it. Again, this is due to stupid politicians. This includes Thailand (Thaksin's 30 Baht scheme is counted as universal healthcare).

 

Poverty, as you alluded to, is the result of modern governments simply not caring, e.g. the USA, or not being able to afford it, like some countries in Africa. 

 

Please.  The 1970's called and they would like their bankrupt diatribes returned.  Your statement  "Poverty,.... is the result of modern governments simply not caring, e.g. the USA, or not being able to afford it, like some countries in Africa." is very off the mark. The USA national, state, county and municipal governments do care, and have provided an extensive array of social benefit plans and  supports that are the envy of much of the world.  Poverty in many cases is due to social and cultural practices and behaviours of the poor that keep them poor. The USA remains the land of opportunity for those who plan ahead and work hard.  In other countries, poverty is a direct result of systemic corruption and selfishness which is a reflection of the local system of beliefs and local culture.

 

Lloyd George sullied his legacy with his support of  Germany post WWI. He was a staunch supporter of Germany's  expansionist positions, and was a defacto enabler of German's invasion of Czechoslovakia and Poland.

 

It is a cop out to blame politicians in  democratic societies for social failures. The politicians are elected by the people or allowed to remain in their positions by the people. The USA just elected  Mr. Trump. What now follows is entirely on those voters. The UK elected  Labour and must now accept the ensuing economic devastation. In both cases, people were warned and told what would happen. To now turn around and blame the politicians for  the  problems that will ensue is an avoidance of responsibility.

 

 

[dinsdale]

Surprise Surge: Thai Economy Outperforms Expectations with 3% Growth

Bit like the surprise poll from a particular pollster about Harris was going to win Iowa? We all know how that worked out 

[ChaiyaTH]

50% less than Vietnam. I do honestly wonder where all that growth is though, I only see a decline but higher prices that make up for it, which aren't sustainable. Same airlines, fewer flights but double the prices.

 

The mystery of all fully booked hotels and planes remains the biggest as most bars and restaurants are ghosted. This is even weirder in the south, where you neither find them on the beaches in the amounts you would expect.

[Isaan sailor]

Bank of Thailand should move closer to a floating peg of the USD, like Vietnam does.  Baht starting to rise, and would hurt the economy even more.