Labour Faces Dramatic Losses as Political Landscape Shifts New Mega Poll

[Social Media]

 

A sweeping new poll has revealed a seismic shift in the UK’s political landscape, suggesting Labour could lose nearly 200 seats in the next general election, leaving the country on course for a hung parliament. This constituency-by-constituency analysis, conducted by the think tank More in Common for *The Sunday Times*, points to a fracturing of the traditional two-party system and a significant rise in support for smaller parties like Reform UK.  

 

 

Sir Keir Starmer, who secured a resounding victory less than six months ago, could find his government’s dominance short-lived. Labour won 411 seats in what some critics dubbed a “loveless landslide” in July, but if another election were held today, the analysis predicts Labour would win just 228 seats. This represents a loss of 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the Scottish National Party (SNP). Labour’s “red wall” gains in northern England would be almost entirely wiped out, with Reform emerging as the primary beneficiary.  

 

The analysis, by the think tank More in Common created with survey data of more than 11,000 people, Labour would still emerge as the largest party in parliament, its margin over the Conservatives would be razor-thin, holding only six more seats. The analysis forecasts the Conservatives would win 222 seats, Reform 72, the Liberal Democrats 58, the SNP 37, and the Green Party two. This fragmentation of votes underscores a dramatic acceleration of electoral shifts since the last general election.  

 

Reform UK’s meteoric rise to prominence is one of the most striking elements of the analysis. The party, previously seen as a minor player, would now become the third-largest force in Westminster. Angela Rayner, alongside six other cabinet members, is projected to lose her seat, emphasizing the extent of Labour’s potential losses.  

 

The implied national vote share further highlights the political volatility. Labour is predicted to capture just 25% of the vote, trailing the Conservatives at 26%. Reform would claim 21%, with the Liberal Democrats at 14%, the Greens at 8%, the SNP at 2%, and other parties collectively garnering 3%.  

Such an outcome would result in an unstable parliament where no single party could form a majority government. To secure a majority in the House of Commons, a party needs at least 326 seats out of the possible 650—a number no party is forecast to achieve.  

 

The analysis suggests Britain may be entering an era of coalition politics, akin to systems seen in countries like Ireland, France, and Germany. “This is a watershed moment for the UK,” remarked a spokesperson for More in Common. “The dominance of the two major parties is eroding, and we’re seeing a shift towards a more fragmented, multiparty system.”  

 

In Europe, such trends are already entrenched. France and Germany are preparing for fresh elections in the new year, with Ireland and the Netherlands operating under ongoing coalition arrangements. If the UK follows this path, the stability of single-party governments may soon become a relic of the past.  

 

The findings cast doubt on Labour’s ability to retain its majority and signal a dramatic realignment of British politics. For Sir Keir Starmer and his party, the challenge ahead is clear: reversing this trend or navigating the complexities of coalition politics in an increasingly fragmented landscape.

 

Based on a report by Sunday Times 2024-12-30

 

 

 

[wombat]

Starmer the trojan horse closet Tory

[TTSIssues]

Labour were voted in, not because of their policies (which they gave very little detail on pre election), but because everyone was sick of the Conservatives and their constant squabbling and poor decisions.

 

Now that Labour have set out their stall, and clearly lied saying they wouldn’t raise taxes for “working people” - which is basically anyone with a job - with the largest tax burden in history, people have realised what they have elected.

 

Farage has done a great job of stepping into the void, promising to deal with the illegal boat crossings, which is a subject that is clearly of great concern to the average man in the street.

[bkk6060]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

leaving the country on course for a hung parliament.

Lucky.

[James105]

So if the election was held tomorrow we would have a coalition of clowns government made up of Labour, Lib dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru.   On that basis I am glad the election is not tomorrow.   Quite how Labour have any support after such an abysmal and clueless start is quite something, but I guess public sector workers are still having a good time under this clown show which would explain it.   

[Thingamabob]

3 hours ago, wombat said:

Starmer the trojan horse closet Tory

Surely a misprint. Should read closet Marxist.

[mfd101]

4 years to go? (yawn).

[jippytum]

People who voted for Starmer realise they have been lied to by a cheating sleaze merchant. 

To add further discontent he has restored  to prominence unpopular  politicians  like Milliband and Mandleson to make things worse. 

[Chomper Higgot]

Struggling to get over the results of the 2024 election, The Times engages in ‘salty’ fantasies over the next election that’s not due for over 4 years.

 

 

[soalbundy]

42 minutes ago, jippytum said:

People who voted for Starmer realise they have been lied to by a cheating sleaze merchant. 

To add further discontent he has restored  to prominence unpopular  politicians  like Milliband and Mandleson to make things worse. 

'Yes minister'

[Bkk Brian]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Struggling to get over the results of the 2024 election, The Times engages in ‘salty’ fantasies over the next election that’s not due for over 4 years.

 

 

So the Times reports on a very large poll and now it suddenly becomes ‘salty’ fantasies

 

6 hours ago, Social Media said:

The analysis, by the think tank More in Common created with survey data of more than 11,000 people

 

When you have nothing, spew out some messenger bashing

 

Here some more salty fantasies, this time from your go to Guardian:

 

Labour fears grow as Reform eyes victories in local election battleground
Nigel Farage’s party is building on the unpopularity of the government and is set to challenge it in next year’s polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/21/labour-fears-grow-as-reform-eyes-victories-in-local-election-battleground

[Tiger1980]

Waite until the next election and you will find a substantial increase in the Reform vote.as they are about to take further voters away from both the Conservatives and labour.

[Chomper Higgot]

To be fair to The Times, they have been transparent stating this poll was conducted on their behalf.

 

Perhaps they’ll pay for another nearer the election.

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

To be fair to The Times, they have been transparent stating this poll was conducted on their behalf.

 

Perhaps they’ll pay for another nearer the election.

Oh look more disregard for the poll results and messenger bashing, more proof you have nothing, just can't help yourself.

[blazes]

1 hour ago, jippytum said:

People who voted for Starmer realise they have been lied to by a cheating sleaze merchant. 

 

 

He lies that he is an Arsenal supporter, when in fact he is a closet Spurs supporter....

 

[nglodnig]

Does anybody believe polls?

[wombat]

On 12/30/2024 at 7:58 AM, Thingamabob said:

Surely a misprint. Should read closet Marxist.

Is there a difference?

[Stocky]

An awful lot can, and will, happen between now and August 15th 2029, the date at which a UK general election must be called if it hasn't already. Given the size of the Labour majority there's scant chance of an election being forced upon Labour, so they'll be able to choose their moment. In the meantime the Telegraph, Times, Mail and Express can froth at the mouth all they like.

 

 

[JonnyF]

Starmer manged to hide his vile nature until elected.

 

Now the British public have seen it. Unfortunately we have 4 years of social and economic destruction before we can remove him. 

 

Labours only hope is to remove Starmer but they will probably wait until the build up to the next election before doing it. Labour MPs want 3 years of grift before pretending to grow a pair. 

 

The state of the UK under 2 tier Keir is shocking.

 

It's like watching what would have happened to the US if Harris won. You guys dodged a bullet.

 

 

 

[billd766]

On 12/30/2024 at 9:02 AM, soalbundy said:

'Yes minister'

Or should that read "Yes, Prime Minister".

[Nick Carter icp]

On 12/30/2024 at 10:00 AM, blazes said:

 

He lies that he is an Arsenal supporter, when in fact he is a closet Spurs supporter....

 

 

   No way, he wouldn't have won the election if he was a Spurs supporter .

He would have lost the election after being way ahead in the prior polls 

[JonnyF]

On 12/30/2024 at 10:00 AM, blazes said:

 

He lies that he is an Arsenal supporter, when in fact he is a closet Spurs supporter....

 

 

Doubtful.

 

Spurs have a large Jewish following. 

[Chomper Higgot]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

Doubtful.

 

Spurs have a large Jewish following. 

That true, a spurs supporter myself I recall the chants from the stands.

 

Being a Spurs supporter is in many ways a journey of faith, you just have to believe someday it will come good. 

[Nick Carter icp]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

That true, a spurs supporter myself I recall the chants from the stands.

 

Being a Spurs supporter is in many ways a journey of faith, you just have to believe someday it will come good. 

 

  Do you recall the Spurs fans singing "Y*d army"

And the response "You're Goyim and  you know you are "

[Seppius]

Not a chance the UK will be better off in 4 1/2 years under Labour, They are on course to really f***, the country up

 

Does Stamer really believe at eh end of this parliament things will be better? Not a chance, Reform will romp the next elections the way things are going

[pegman]

On 12/29/2024 at 7:00 PM, mfd101 said:

4 years to go? (yawn).

4.5 years out but clown car Murdoch media makes out the election is in 4.5 weeks. A Reform dog and pony show is Rupurt's wet dream come true

[phetphet]

What is the point, other than page filling in the newspaper, of carrying out a survey just months after a general election? 

[Patong2021]

4 years in  politics is an eternity. Much can happen. Farage is Reform. It has no structure, no leadership and no parliamentary gravitas. All it will do is split conservative votes. I anticipate that a  payola or sex scandal will hit Reform or Labour. In the UK, there is always some Rentboy or Dominatrix hiding under the bed, or a foreign agent with a bag of cash waiting in the wings to supply fun in the sun for a bloated  MP.   

 

Labour will do its damage, damage that  will be difficult to reverse and damage that will blight the UK for a decade. In the mneantime, the Islamic front will carve out its  ghettos and the UK will face a crisis of survival, all done under the strain of the EU and USA kicking it when its down.  Might be a good thing for the UK to discover the qualities of humility. It wasn't too long ago that the UK tried to bully Canada into an unfair trade deal. In the face of  US tariffs and  trade barriers, that deal the Tories  fumbled, is going to  come back and haunt them. 

 

[JonnyF]

12 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

That true, a spurs supporter myself I recall the chants from the stands.

 

Of course you are.😆

 

Just as you compete in female over 60s bike races in California and are a father of two.

 

A different identity for every thread.😆

[josephbloggs]

20 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Of course you are.😆

 

Just as you compete in female over 60s bike races in California and are a father of two.

 

A different identity for every thread.😆

Sounds like an obsession / a bit stalkery.