NASA Raises Alarm: 'City-Killer' Asteroid's Impact Risk Increases Again

[Social Media]

 

NASA has once again adjusted its predictions regarding Asteroid 2024 YR4, warning that the probability of it colliding with Earth has risen to 3.1 percent. This marks a significant jump from previous estimates, bringing the odds of an impact on December 22, 2032, to 1 in 32.

 

The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide based on its brightness, is not large enough to trigger a global catastrophe like the six-mile-wide asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. However, it is classified as a "city killer," meaning it could cause devastating destruction if it were to strike a populated area. Analysis of its composition suggests it is a relatively common type of space rock, rather than a rare, metal-rich asteroid.

 

 

Experts speculate that if 2024 YR4 enters Earth's atmosphere, it would likely detonate midair with an explosion equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, emphasized that while the situation is serious, it is not yet a global crisis. "This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city," Moissl explained.

 

The risk of the 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth at the end of 2032 has increased, University of Oxford's Professor Stephen Smartt explains what the impacts of a collision could be.

The risk of the 2024 YR4 asteroid hitting Earth at the end of 2032 has increased, University of Oxford's Professor Stephen Smartt explains what the impacts of a collision could be. pic.twitter.com/gUuLIm9Czc

— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 19, 2025

 

NASA’s latest warning makes 2024 YR4 the most threatening asteroid ever recorded by modern forecasting. The last time an asteroid posed a similar risk was in 2004, when Apophis briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of hitting Earth in 2029—until further observations ruled out the possibility of impact.

 

Astronomers first detected 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024, at Chile's El Sauce Observatory. While it may directly strike Earth, another possibility is that it could explode midair in an event known as an "air burst," similar to the Tunguska event of 1908. That explosion flattened over 800 square miles of Siberian forest, making it the most powerful impact event in recorded history.

 

In an effort to better understand the asteroid, NASA has announced plans to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to gather more data. "Webb is able to see things that are very, very dim," said planetary scientist Bruce Betts, highlighting the telescope’s ability to detect subtle details about 2024 YR4’s structure and trajectory.

 

 

Currently, the asteroid is traveling toward Jupiter, with its next close approach to Earth expected in 2028. If the impact probability surpasses 10 percent, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) will issue a formal alert, which could lead to a global call for preparedness measures. "A risk above 10 percent would trigger a recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness," Moissl explained.

 

For now, astronomers and space agencies worldwide continue to monitor 2024 YR4, hoping further observations will clarify whether Earth is truly in its path—or if the planet will once again be spared from cosmic catastrophe.

 

Based on a report by Daily Mail  2025-02-20

 

Related Topics:

UN Monitors Potential Asteroid Threat to Earth, collision "cannot yet be entirely ruled out"

Earth in the Crosshairs? Neil deGrasse Tyson Sounds the Alarm on Devastating Asteroid

 

 

[impulse]

5 hours ago, Social Media said:

If the impact probability surpasses 10 percent, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) will issue a formal alert, which could lead to a global call for preparedness measures.

 

 I wonder who we're going to have to send money to this time.

[soalbundy]

3% chance of hitting earth.....or conversely 97% chance that it won't.

[Muhendis]

1 minute ago, soalbundy said:

3% chance of hitting earth.....or conversely 97% chance that it won't.

I think I'll go for the latter.

[richard_smith237]

10 minutes ago, Muhendis said:

12 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

3% chance of hitting earth.....or conversely 97% chance that it won't.

I think I'll go for the latter.

 

Covid shut the world down with less odds than that !!! 

[RayWright]

The big question remains. Will Bruce Willis still be alive to save us?

[John Drake]

9 hours ago, Social Media said:

"A risk above 10 percent would trigger a recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness," Moissl explained.

 

 

What does this mean? There aren't very many options if you're in the impact zone.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

What does this mean? There aren't very many options if you're in the impact zone.

Run, or the official announcement would be evacuate rapidly lol

[John Drake]

Just now, Bkk Brian said:

Run, or the official announcement would be evacuate rapidly lol

 

Which brings up the most interesting question of all: where do they all evacuate to? That impact line runs across some the most crowded impoverished portions of the Global South. Imagine 100 million people moving in one solid mass towards the new homeland in Europe or North America. Somehow, I don't think the Chinese are going to let them in, although that tip in Bangladesh could mean they'll try for China but will probably settle for Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos.

[Caldera]

Conveniently  the cities we see in its path aren't a big loss if hit. Things could be much worse.

[John Drake]

38 minutes ago, Caldera said:

Conveniently  the cities we see in its path aren't a big loss if hit. Things could be much worse.

 

Alas, if it comes in a little early and a bit further south, it could hit Bangkok. When would the mob scene start at the airport?

[RayWright]

2 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Which brings up the most interesting question of all: where do they all evacuate to?...

Not an issue, judging by recent political decisions in the UK and Ireland and other European countries they'll be welcomed with open arms, given a house or a hotel, private medical care, a mobile phone, clothing, cash handouts etc.

[Sir Dude]

Not big deal, even if it hit, then places like India or Kenya etc. could lose tens of millions and barely even notice it.

[parallelman]

A lot could happen in the next 7 years. The orbit could be disturbed either causing the asteroid to move away from Earth...or put it on a more direct path towards us. Maybe it will do us a favour and shift some of that mass of debris/junk already around Earth, Ha!

[connda]

The "Earth-Killer" will be the one they don't track.

[Red Forever]

1 hour ago, RayWright said:

Not an issue, judging by recent political decisions in the UK and Ireland and other European countries they'll be welcomed with open arms, given a house or a hotel, private medical care, a mobile phone, clothing, cash handouts etc.

Yawn

[Tug]

Hope it misses we have troubles enough already!

[lordgrinz]

8 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

Alas, if it comes in a little early and a bit further south, it could hit Bangkok. When would the mob scene start at the airport?

 

Hell with that, I've been on the planet far too long already, I'll be drinking several Mai Tai's at one of the highrise restaurants in downtown Bangkok while watching the fireworks. I'll raise a toast to all those silly people below running for their lives

[richard_smith237]

20 hours ago, Caldera said:

Conveniently  the cities we see in its path aren't a big loss if hit. Things could be much worse.

 

Racist much ?

[richard_smith237]

18 hours ago, connda said:

The "Earth-Killer" will be the one they don't track.

 

Explain ? an 'Earth-Killer' would be 'easier' to track....   

 

 

In fact, didn't they track one once? they trained up some ex-con's as astronauts and flew them to the asteroid...   They even had Aerosmith write a song about it.

[Purdey]

No plan to divert it? Blow it off course?

[hotsun]

Anyone who thinks we will exist by 2032 is more optimistic than i am

[black tabby12345]

On 2/20/2025 at 12:11 PM, RayWright said:

The big question remains. Will Bruce Willis still be alive to save us?

 

In order to dig 800feet deep hole on that rock,  to set the nuke device to blow it away.

[black tabby12345]

What kind of countermeasure can be taken if that asteroid is on the collision course with the Earth?

 

Launching a nuke missile to destroy it?

 

Or do they send someone out to set the high explosive charge on that damned space rock?

 

[richard_smith237]

2 hours ago, hotsun said:

Anyone who thinks we will exist by 2032 is more optimistic than i am

 

Due do your age, or humanity wiping themselves out.

 

If the latter, tin foil hatters have been babbling on about such nonsense for over 50 years.

[richard_smith237]

On 2/20/2025 at 12:11 PM, RayWright said:

The big question remains. Will Bruce Willis still be alive to save us?

 

No chance, sadly he has demential... 

 

... We'll have to rely on GammaGlobulin to bore the asteroid into another dimension !!!! 

 

[black tabby12345]

If the Earth Killer hit this planet, Crustal Tsunami is likely to happen.

And its speed is as fast as the sound.

 

crustal tsunami - Google Search

[black tabby12345]

What saves the world when mega meteorite locks on the Earth?　

 

How to stop an asteroid from hitting Earth | The Planetary Society

[richard_smith237]

2 minutes ago, black tabby12345 said:

What kind of countermeasure can be taken if that asteroid is on the collision course with the Earth?

 

Launching a nuke missile to destroy it?

 

Or do they send someone out to set the high explosive charge on that damned space rock?

 

'In the movies' the aim has never been to 'destroy' an oncoming asteroid but to 'reach it early' enough with a 'nuke of sorts' to deflect is trajectory to ensure it misses earth. 

 

The reasoning seemed sound enough...  i.e. a 0.15 degree deflection far enough out could be sufficient if the asteroid is 5 years out.

 

But also, not only a 'deflection' change would work, but also a 'momentum change' where a subtle

'slowing' impacts (delays) the orbit relative to earth.

 

Theoretically a 5-megaton nuclear explosion 1 year before impact would cause a deflection angle resulting in the asteroid missing Earth by approximately 6,450 km (according to AI).

 

[black tabby12345]

5 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

'In the movies' the aim has never been to 'destroy' an oncoming asteroid but to 'reach it early' enough with a 'nuke of sorts' to deflect is trajectory to ensure it misses earth. 

 

The reasoning seemed sound enough...  i.e. a 0.15 degree deflection far enough out could be sufficient if the asteroid is 5 years out.

 

But also, not only a 'deflection' change would work, but also a 'momentum change' where a subtle

'slowing' impacts (delays) the orbit relative to earth.

 

Theoretically a 5-megaton nuclear explosion 1 year before impact would cause a deflection angle resulting in the asteroid missing Earth by approximately 6,450 km (according to AI).

 

 

Hi, thank you for detailed scientific explanation.

You seem to know a lot about Astrophysics about which I am totally unfamiliar with.

 

Referring to Armageddon, I remembered that they intended to ”split" the asteroid by explosion,  and its broken pieces narrowly miss the Earth(if it was done in time). And that critical timing was named Zero Barrier.

 

In the world we live in, 6000km something is a huge distance.

But on a cosmic scale, it looks fairly tiny  figure, doesn't it?

And it determines the fate of our world.