Trump’s Tariff Strategy: US can no longer act as the world's economic shock absorber

[thaibeachlovers]

2 minutes ago, BigBilly said:

The third option is the Republican sheep in congress could grow a spine and assert their authority.  Under the constitution, a president of any party does not have this much power.  Congress could easily stop this madness if they choose.

 

Which option is more likely, I don't know.

Well they might if they get scared enough, which could be when the dispossessed are wandering through the Capitol with a portable gibbet.

IMO most of them might agree with Trump on the tariffs, but nothing works like fear to make politicians change tack. It's not like some of them have any staying power and will change policy at the drop of a hat if they think that blaming Trump will spare their proverbial necks.

 

To be honest I think it's a lot of BS and screaming, and eventually it's all be like 2009 when we peasants got screwed on interest on savings, and the 1% cleaned up big time.

The only thing I'm certain on is that it's not going to be party time again for the serfs in my life time. IMO this is just the start of the beginning. Hopefully I'm wrong on that, but time will tell. We are living in interesting times.

[candide]

7 hours ago, kwilco said:

Trump isn't interested in the economics of tariffs - they are a political too. The World may be heading for a “trump slump” – but for Trump, it is a political measure to get businesses and countries to cow tow to him. It’s a power grab where everyone has to negotiate with Tump. He’s already said he’s going to try for a 3rd term – an impoverished world is easier for him to manipulate – or so he thinks

 

However, he seems to have underestimated the ability of the  the world  to ignore him – the's terrified of big economic or poitical blocs, this is why he’s so keen to divide Europe – e.g. Brexit and Putin in Ukraine. People are coming round to new alignments – a Canada EU block, an Asean bloc and Idia, even China.

 

America can’t make all the stuff currently made abroad – it would take decades to set up  (Trump knows and doesn’t care) and then for his smaller market, ( he can't sell it abroad, it will be too dear.  Also the economies of scale would set in and they will flounder. In the meantime other countries in the world are well placed to pick up the slck with US products out of the way. By the midterms the failure will be overly apparent and Trump will invent some “national crisis” followed by a state of emergency and eventually cancel elections at the end of his term.

It confirms how dumb Trump is.

 

The main reason Trump chose a tariffs policy is that it's quick to implement and highly visible. Unlike the complex longer-term policies successfully implemented by countries such as South Korea or China. (It's also probably the only policy he's able to understand and manage).

 

The problem is that, in case it works (that's unlikely, as you explained), it can only have an impact on long-term, as it takes years to develop an industry. So basically the negative effect is on short-term as an economic crisis, and the alleged positive effect can only be felt on a longer term which exceeds the time horizon of the midterms and the 2028 election.

 

The perfect recipee for a next electoral defeat! 

[candide]

37 minutes ago, Dan O said:

Same with the Canadian TA he negotiated last term that now he claims was so badly done. He's truly a moron

Oh, and I forgot to mention that he also torpedoed the TPP with the Asian countries he's now imposing tariffs on! 

[SunnyinBangrak]

58 minutes ago, BigBilly said:

Do you seriously think those numbers that Trump showed on his silly childish chart were the tariff rates countries charge the US?  

 

Those rates are something Trump made up in his head and were based on the trade deficit, and had nothing to do with the tariff rate countries charge the US.

 

https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-reciprocal-tariffs-calculations/

 

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker".

[newbee2022]

33 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Given the amount of personal debt that many people have acquired, they can't afford to believe that the party is over. IMO that's where the real pain is going to be- if they lose their jobs because of the decline in world trade, they are seriously up the brown coloured creek without a paddle.

 

Given that my pension is paid to me out of current taxation, I'm also going to be up the brown creek in the same canoe if mass unemployment eventuates. Given China is our main export market, if they fall over, we are probably all going to be up the creek. So I'm just as much at risk as any American if it all goes horribly wrong.

 

 

As I know that your pension funds are connected to the stock market Americans should be concerned very much with rising unemployment, inflation and decreasing economy.

And then think about this scenario: 

After 4 years Trump will start somewhere a "little war". Maybe at the border to Mexico? In this case he will have the right to delay elections infinitely. Do you know what that means? 

[BigBilly]

19 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker"

It's really easy to calculate the percentages Trump got by yourself.  The trade deficit divided by total imports.  No leftist fact checker needed.  

 

It would be the world's greatest coincidence if that number coincided with the actual tariff rate countries charge the US for every country.

[Dirk Z]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

If every insult leveled at Trump was a brick, we could build a road to the moon!

I suppose insults are all they have now, considering their candidate was so incredibly bad.

It is not an insult but an objective observation for which there is ample proof.

[xylophone]

On 4/4/2025 at 8:50 AM, FritsSikkink said:

Trump is in gaga land: Trump sparks health fears as he 'forgets' to sign executive order and has to be 'guided' back to his seat

Yep....he is certainly heading there, if not already there:-

 

One person took to X, formerly Twitter, to say: "Trump stumbles going up the stairs of Marine 1. Age and weight are catching up to him. In about a year, they'll have to hoist him in there with a bovine sling and a crane."

 

While a second person commented: "Trump has bruises on his hands, he drags his leg and is stumbling on the f****** stairs, clown boy is falling apart. You know the media would be all over this if President Biden were falling with bruises and <deleted>."

 

A third person agreed, adding: "Wow. The media would lose their minds if this was Biden. Don't expect them to cover it. 

[AndreasHG]

On 4/4/2025 at 8:51 AM, JonnyF said:

they celebrated it when Britain left the EU

 

In fact, the UK was never part of (continental) Europe to begin with.

 

It is a piece of alien land that happens to be parked next to Europe, without belonging to it.

 

We can start by saying that in the British Isles it is customary to drive on the wrong side of the road. In continental Europe people pride themselves on keeping to the right side.

 

We can go on to note that the Britons insist on using imperial measurements, while continentals switched to the metric system after the Napoleonic campaigns that popularized them across the Continent.

 

Furthermore, Britons still weigh their body mass in stones, something continentals stopped doing at the end of the Stone Age, due to its impracticality (in the Continent, the art of picking stones of exactly equal or multiple weights for accurate measurement was lost in the Bronze Age).

 

And we can finish with food: as a great French chef observed in the eighteenth century, "Britain is an island where people are busy roasting, boiling, frying, baking, steaming a little of everything without actually cooking anything." 

 

[scorecard]

On 4/4/2025 at 8:20 AM, Tug said:

So the guy who has bankrupted just about every company unfortunat enough to get within his clutches had a scam university (just were are his school records) embezzled from his charity now wants to devalue my money …….not even mentioning all the other fiascos going on rite now……scary times indeed.

Watch your ego when you depart mr trump it might trip you up.

[rough diamond]

1 hour ago, AndreasHG said:

In fact, the UK was never part of (continental) Europe to begin with.

It was before many ice ages ago.

[still kicking]

On 4/4/2025 at 9:20 AM, Tug said:

So the guy who has bankrupted just about every company unfortunat enough to get within his clutches had a scam university (just were are his school records) embezzled from his charity now wants to devalue my money …….not even mentioning all the other fiascos going on rite now……scary times indeed.

And while he is killing the stock market he is playing golf.

[placeholder]

6 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker".

deflecting much?

[rough diamond]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

deflecting much?

Much!!!

I think you mean a near total repost of the MAGA handout!

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, AndreasHG said:

 

In fact, the UK was never part of (continental) Europe to begin with.

 

It is a piece of alien land that happens to be parked next to Europe, without belonging to it.

 

 

Geologists would disagree:

Great Britain lies on the European continental shelf, part of the Eurasian Plate and off the north-west coast of continental Europe, separated from this European mainland by the North Sea and by the English Channel, which narrows to 34 km (18 nmi; 21 mi) at the Straits of Dover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain

 

That would go for Northern Ireland, too

Ireland is an island in Northern Europe, in the north Atlantic Ocean. The island measures about 480 km (300 mi) north-south, and 275 km (171 mi) east-west, with a total area of 84,421 km2 (32,595 sq mi). It lies about 53°N 8°W, near the western edge of the European continental shelf, part of the Eurasian Plate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Ireland

 

In fact, during periods of high glaciation, the area between what is now Great Britain, NW Germany and Jutland were connected by what is called Doggerland. It disappeared under the seas about 8000 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland

[candide]

18 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Geologists would disagree:

Great Britain lies on the European continental shelf, part of the Eurasian Plate and off the north-west coast of continental Europe, separated from this European mainland by the North Sea and by the English Channel, which narrows to 34 km (18 nmi; 21 mi) at the Straits of Dover.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain

 

That would go for Northern Ireland, too

Ireland is an island in Northern Europe, in the north Atlantic Ocean. The island measures about 480 km (300 mi) north-south, and 275 km (171 mi) east-west, with a total area of 84,421 km2 (32,595 sq mi). It lies about 53°N 8°W, near the western edge of the European continental shelf, part of the Eurasian Plate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Ireland

 

In fact, during periods of high glaciation, the area between what is now Great Britain, NW Germany and Jutland were connected by what is called Doggerland. It disappeared under the seas about 8000 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland

And it's been populated by European immigrants, such as Saxons, Nordic people, Normands....

Not to mention the fact that the Royals have been French and German! 😀

[cdemundo]

On 4/4/2025 at 3:46 PM, BritScot said:

The haters on here really are close to crazy. You all should sit back and digest the bile use all spout. This forum must be so full of billionaires with such business and success portfolios! So, use all support corruption and theft of trillions of tax payers money, tax payer's money being used to pay for terrorists and agitators, countries theft of manufacturing with crazy tariff structures. Trump was quite in his right to reciprocally tax them but he could easily have doubled the tax. Use do realise that he is only hit them with 50% of the tax they hit they issue against American goods? I think he should of hit them with equal tariffs especially China!

" corruption and theft of trillions of tax payers money, "

Didn't they say "gazillions"?

I know Musk said that Social Security was the biggest corruption in history but they have not documented significant corruption in SSA.

 

They talk a lot about fraud and corruption but just seem to be attacking agencies based on getting culture wars politcal headlines.

 

Do "use" ever follow up on their claims of large amounts of corruption?

 

[Walker88]

On 4/4/2025 at 9:17 AM, mikeymike100 said:

"Finance guru Bill Ackman offered some stern advice to world leaders reeling from US President Donald Trump's tariffs amid fears of a global trade war.

In a post on X Thursday night, the CEO of Pershing Square urged world leaders to quickly strike a deal with the president as the tariffs - which range from 10 percent to upward of 50 percent - shook global markets.

'My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President [Trump], you need to do so immediately,' he wrote.

'Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions,' Ackman continued, characterizing the commander-in-chief as a 'tough but fair negotiator.

'He loves to make deals and he loves to get things done promptly.'

Ackman also said that he suspects the president will 'reward the early dealmakers with fairer deals than those that wait to sit down at the negotiating table."

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14570511/Bill-Ackman-advice-world-leaders-Trump-tariffs.html

Talking up his book, as we used to say on Wall Street.

 

Obviously Ackman's positions are getting slaughtered, and he's leveraged to the hilt. The 22% tumble in NASDAQ since mid December will hammer his portfolio, leaving him with only his administrative fee. He needs probably a 30% jump just to get back to even so that he can charge a performance fee.

 

If the market tumbles much more, he'll probably wind up his fund and open a new one, so that he can set things back to zero.

[Walker88]

7 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker".

He has morons' trust, kind of like Jim Jones, David Koresh and other cult leaders had. It didn't end well for them, nor will it end well for MAGAmorons. The dumber a person, the more they are on POTUS' side.

 

Oddly, the billionaires sucked up to him hoping for tax breaks, but when you lose half your supposed net worth because your stock tumbles, a few % cut in tax rates isn't going to mean much.

 

The markets don't seem to trust him, and increasingly even Republicans are breaking ranks.

 

All he has left are the clueless.

[SunnyinBangrak]

1 minute ago, Walker88 said:

He has morons' trust, kind of like Jim Jones, David Koresh and other cult leaders had. It didn't end well for them, nor will it end well for MAGAmorons. The dumber a person, the more they are on POTUS' side.

 

Oddly, the billionaires sucked up to him hoping for tax breaks, but when you lose half your supposed net worth because your stock tumbles, a few % cut in tax rates isn't going to mean much.

 

The markets don't seem to trust him, and increasingly even Republicans are breaking ranks.

 

All he has left are the clueless.

I know better than to engage with the economically illiterate, no matter how smug they are🤣

[gamb00ler]

On 4/4/2025 at 5:42 PM, SunnyinBangrak said:

I'm still confused by the fact that every single countty around the world imposes tariffs on imports and benefits from it. Yet if the USA imposes tariffs like all the other countries it is disastrous for Americans. Is it because of the weather? the geography? Or is it our old friend liberal logic combined with irrational hatred giving rise to yet another nonsensical narrative?

End of the day the US needed to tackle the snowballing trade defecits. Can we calm down and wait for other countries to cancel their tariffs on the US and get some trade balance back? Or are we seriously going to keep screaming and hyperventilating for months?

An excellent post that succinctly illustrates the lack of understanding in the MAGA world about how trade between rich countries and poorer countries leads to trade imbalances.  Thank you!

 

For example, it's plain to see that Thailand is not using tariffs (custom duties) to protect home grown manufacturing businesses and jobs.  They use tariffs as an easily managed source of tax revenue.  Thailand's rampant corruption and their inability to enforce laws/regulations means they need dead simple revenue collection methods like VAT and tariffs.

[JonnyF]

The only way this fails is if Trump blinks first.

 

I strongly suspect he will not.

 

He will go down in history as the man who saved America and possibly the Western world.

[Walker88]

35 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I know better than to engage with the economically illiterate, no matter how smug they are🤣

Oooh, Nobel Laureate...educate us. (The Econ Nobel isn't a real Nobel, by the way)

 

Actually, forget us for a minute and go educate the markets.

 

Do an impersonation of Ralph Bellamy and Don Ameche in "Trading Places": "Turn those machines back on!!!!!!"

 

Oh, and go wake up David Ricardo from his eternal slumber and tell him he was wrong, too.

 

Did I waste my money on my Stanford MBA?  Do I have to give the money back I made on Wall Street?

 

Back when the election took place I wrote a post saying I expected a 20% drop in the market in 2025, and that I was cashing out and going to cash and a mix of currencies. MAGAs chortled at my absurdity. NASDAQ is down 22% from its December high and the euro is up vs the usd.

 

I guess I just got lucky. Maybe it's better to be a dumb baht billionaire than a brilliant MAGA.

[Walker88]

28 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

The only way this fails is if Trump blinks first.

 

I strongly suspect he will not.

 

He will go down in history as the man who saved America and possibly the Western world.

The only way this recovers is if POTUS blinks first.

 

I strongly suspect he will.....and then blame Biden.

 

Otherwise, he will go down in history as the man who started the Greatest Depression. Hoover, Smoot & Hawley will then be able to rest in peace.

[placeholder]

54 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I know better than to engage with the economically illiterate, no matter how smug they are🤣

Which apparently by your lights would include most economists.

[JonnyF]

2 minutes ago, Walker88 said:

The only way this recovers is if POTUS blinks first.

 

I strongly suspect he will.....and then blame Biden.

 

Otherwise, he will go down in history as the man who started the Greatest Depression. Hoover, Smoot & Hawley will then be able to rest in peace.

 

Says the woke saviour so ignorant that he actually uses 88 in his username completely oblivious to the connotation. 😀

 

I can tell you've really got your finger on the pulse. 

 

I bet you thought Biden was sharp as a tack. 

 

 

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Says the woke saviour so ignorant that he actually uses 88 in his username completely oblivious to the connotation. 😀

 

I can tell you've really got your finger on the pulse. 

 

I bet you thought Biden was sharp as a tack. 

 

 

All you offer is empty insults. That's because you've got nothing.

[Tug]

9 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Do you seriously think after all the hoaxes and false narratives against Trump by the left collapsed into steaming piles of you know what, that any reasonable being will listen to any more leftist fact checks? It's over. Trump has the publics trust, the left don't. Ill trust Trump on this one not some weasel liberal "fact checker".

Scam university FACT embezzled from his charity FACT inheritance 400 million + a bunch of rentals FACT the big lie FACT civilly convicted sexual assaulter FACT ( the judge thinks a rape conviction would be appropriate) Russian collusion was swept under the rug by bill Barr FACTsides with putin against Ukraine FACT no record of his time at Wharton business school FACT there’s lots and lots more as you well know.as the cult members see their retirement vanish our social security stolen our healthcare system ruined they will and are starting to snap out of it.as more republicans voters get sick of the mess trump’s making we will see the republican lawmakers start growing spines again.i just hope it’s sooner than later for selfish reasons as well as the damage done to other countries and people.

[scorecard]

3 hours ago, cdemundo said:

" corruption and theft of trillions of tax payers money, "

Didn't they say "gazillions"?

I know Musk said that Social Security was the biggest corruption in history but they have not documented significant corruption in SSA.

 

They talk a lot about fraud and corruption but just seem to be attacking agencies based on getting culture wars politcal headlines.

 

Do "use" ever follow up on their claims of large amounts of corruption?

 

 

"...  Musk said that Social Security was the biggest corruption in history..."

 

Corruption committed by who?