Thai Baht Set to Break Key 33/USD Level Amid US-China Trade Tensions

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

In light of escalating US-China trade tensions, the Thai baht may appreciate past the psychological barrier of 33 to the US dollar in the second quarter. This remark was made by the Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) after the currency reached a six-month high.

 

On Thursday morning, the baht traded at 33.18-33.20 against the greenback, a slight retreat from an overnight rate of 33.08. Kanjana Chockpisansin, head of research, banking and finance at the Kasikornbank think tank, highlighted the currency's recent strength alongside other Asian currencies due to the dollar's depreciation amid a weakening US economic prospect. This followed President Donald Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs.

 

Additionally, the baht has been buoyed by surging gold prices, which hit a record high of $3,357.78 per ounce on Thursday. The dollar index, which measures the US dollar's value against a basket of foreign currencies, has declined 8% this year, while the baht gained 2.4% from 34.10 to the dollar at the end of 2024.

 

The capital flight from the dollar to currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, which have risen 10.2% and 11.1% respectively year-to-date, further supports the baht's appreciation. "Should US-China tensions persist or worsen, the baht could break past the key level of 33 to the dollar this quarter,".

 

 

 

As of April 16, the Stock Exchange of Thailand saw foreign capital outflows worth 46.9 billion baht year-to-date, compared to 148 billion for all of 2024. However, the Thai bond market attracted 38.2 billion baht in foreign capital during the same period.

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicated that Trump's tariffs could prompt US inflation spikes, though the Fed plans to await more economic data before adjusting interest rates. Nonetheless, market speculation is growing that if inflation rises due to tariffs, the Fed might cut rates in its upcoming May meeting, sooner than a previously expected June cut.

 

The shifting economic landscape exemplifies the complex balance between global trade tensions and currency markets, as Thailand watches its baht potentially strengthen further in response to external pressures, reported Bangkok Post.

 

-- 2025-04-18

 

 

[J Branche]

These are probably the same analyst on Wall Street who constantly adjust their forecast to the day after the earnings report is released 

 

When Baht hit 34 mid rate I checked the forecast and it was a lot more ambitious, I believe over 36 by end of year

 

I just try to transfer some when rate is good for that period and what I feel it will do in the future

[hotchilli]

Going in the right direction..

[KhunLA]

Today 33.35, vs the high & low of the past 19 yrs ... OMT

 

14% more would be nice

16% less ... is that really going to break your wallet ?

Plan better next time ... 

 

Let me know when it gets below ฿28 / $1 USD.  My Soc Sec DD

will still qualify for ret. visa extension @ ฿28 / $1 US 

 

[khunjeff]

These are the same folks who said two weeks ago that the baht would be crashing through 34.5...

 

 

[Ben Zioner]

We might well see a USD collapse (<20 THB) before the mid terms... The wise would buy now for the next couple of years..

[Banana7]

The basic reason THB is surging is that Thai exporters are increasing exports to the USA, before the tariffs kick-in at full rates. Once the full rates start, imports in USA will be reduced and there will be a lot less USD, coming into Thailand, and  floating around the world.

 

Also, China has started dumping lots of goods into Thailand at super cheap prices. This will squeeze if not bankrupt Thai manufacturers, which will depress Thai GDP.

 

What Thailand imports, like gas, oil, machinery, can't paid for in THB, only USD or Euros, GBP are acceptable.

[CallumWK]

4 minutes ago, khunjeff said:

These are the same folks who said two weeks ago that the baht would be crashing through 34.5...

 

 

 

A few weeks earlier the prediction was even +35 by mid year.

[jas007]

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat.  

 

On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30.  A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again.  Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.  

[Banana7]

45 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

A few weeks earlier the prediction was even +35 by mid year.

Wait for it, it's coming. That forecast was made before the 90 day delay on tariffs. So that level of 35+ should be mid-year+90 days, so about Sept. Oct.

[Srikcir]

2 hours ago, Banana7 said:

only USD or Euros, GBP are acceptable.

Canadian Dollar wherein Canada will export its oil & gas anywhere now except to the US?

[thesetat]

2 hours ago, jas007 said:

Somehow, I see this story as a non-event. Currencies fluctuate. Whatever is going on now could easily go the other way at the drop of a hat.  

 

On my first trip to Thailand in 2000, I think I was getting a little over 38. In 2007? it dropped briefly below 30.  A few years ago, in 2022, it briefly hit 38 again.  Anyway, nothing in between 30 and 38 would surprise me.  

I agree, but the news has to have a doomsday tone to it for flavor. The baht has fluctuated between 32 to 35 baht for many months now. a few points does not mean anything. 

[digger70]

Thai Baht Set to Break Key 33/USD Level Amid US-China Trade Tensions 

 

All speculations ,whoever Dreams up those forecast need to shut up.

If one really looks at it than they should know that nobody knows  what's going to happen.

All I do know is that the Aus dollar vs Thb isn't very good for us. Never mind the US $ 

[J Branche]

USD definitely weakening so far today.  Hopefully it improves once US Markets open

[KhunLA]

 

[NoMoonLogistics]

Get used to it.

Devaluing the USD is front and centre of DJT's economic plans. 

[Pouatchee]

once again i read the title of this article and i wondered whether i was getting old or whether the headline was once again crap. it took me a while but i figured it out. i hope the writers of AN proofread themselves one of these days...

 

1. “Break Key 33/USD Level” – Which Direction?

• It does not clarify whether the baht is strengthening (moving below 33 baht per USD) or weakening (moving above 33).

• For example:

  • If it says “break below 33,” it implies baht strength.

  • If it says “break above 33,” it implies baht weakness.

• The phrase “break” alone doesn’t specify direction, making it unclear.

2. “Amid US-China Trade Tensions” – Causal or Coincidental?

• It suggests a correlation between the trade tensions and the baht’s movement but doesn’t clarify whether the tensions are causing the movement or just coinciding with it.

[TheAppletons]

11 hours ago, Pouatchee said:

once again i read the title of this article and i wondered whether i was getting old or whether the headline was once again crap. it took me a while but i figured it out. i hope the writers of AN proofread themselves one of these days...

 

1. “Break Key 33/USD Level” – Which Direction?

• It does not clarify whether the baht is strengthening (moving below 33 baht per USD) or weakening (moving above 33).

• For example:

  • If it says “break below 33,” it implies baht strength.

  • If it says “break above 33,” it implies baht weakness.

• The phrase “break” alone doesn’t specify direction, making it unclear.

2. “Amid US-China Trade Tensions” – Causal or Coincidental?

• It suggests a correlation between the trade tensions and the baht’s movement but doesn’t clarify whether the tensions are causing the movement or just coinciding with it.

 

  The OP is pretty clear that the baht is appreciating....meaning it's strengthening.  Ergo, breaking the 33 level means going below 33 THB to the USD.

  

"The capital flight from the dollar to currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, which have risen 10.2% and 11.1% respectively year-to-date, further supports the baht's appreciation. "Should US-China tensions persist or worsen, the baht could break past the key level of 33 to the dollar this quarter,".

[whiteman]

buy thai gold 1 bhat  better than usa stocks

[Pouatchee]

12 hours ago, TheAppletons said:

 

  The OP is pretty clear that the baht is appreciating....meaning it's strengthening.  Ergo, breaking the 33 level means going below 33 THB to the USD.

  

"The capital flight from the dollar to currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, which have risen 10.2% and 11.1% respectively year-to-date, further supports the baht's appreciation. "Should US-China tensions persist or worsen, the baht could break past the key level of 33 to the dollar this quarter,".

 

under the picture in bold, yes. However, please tell me where it says so in the headline?

 

Thai Baht Set to Break Key 33/USD Level Amid US-China Trade Tensions

 

I dont see it anywhere here

[CallumWK]

On 4/21/2025 at 7:01 PM, Pouatchee said:

1. “Break Key 33/USD Level” – Which Direction?

• It does not clarify whether the baht is strengthening (moving below 33 baht per USD) or weakening (moving above 33).

 

Well since the baht was above 33 to the dollar at the time of the announcement, and hasn't been below 33 since November last year, I guess it are only pedants that can't figure out what was meant.

[Pouatchee]

2 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

I guess it are only pedants that can't figure out what was meant.

 

I guess it are [sic] only peasants who write like this.

[jas007]

And this morning the Baht is weakening again, slightly.  

 

Never forget, whatever Trump's policy on the dollar and however weak it gets, what's to say that the Thai baht won't perform even worse?  Not every currency moves in the same direction vs the dollar, and for various reasons might weaken along with the dollar.  

 

 

[Banana7]

It takes a few months, maybe even a year for THB to start responding to US tariffs. 

 

For example: The U.S. plans tariffs of up to 3,521% on solar panels from Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Nearly $12B in imports could be impacted. Timing hasn't been announced.

 

Also, Chinese built ships and Chinese owned ships will experience significantly higher US port fees starting in Oct. 2025, but continuing to increase in the months and years thereafter. So this will also increase the landed costs of Thai imports into US, if the exporters are using Chinese ships. Non-Chinese ships will be increasing their rates. Maybe the Chinese will get sneaky- take the cargo close to US and then transfer it  to a non-chinese ship at sea which brings the cargo into a USA port. Something like what the Russians do with their oil, transfer at sea, to a ship that has never been in a Russian port. Anyways, the transfer at sea will cost $$, and USA may take other action to make transfer-at-sea less desirable.

 

[CallumWK]

4 minutes ago, Banana7 said:

Maybe the Chinese will get sneaky- take the cargo close to US and then transfer it  to a non-chinese ship at sea which brings the cargo into a USA port. Something like what the Russians do with their oil, transfer at sea, to a ship that has never been in a Russian port. Anyways, the transfer at sea will cost $$,

 

Maybe they can get creative like the Thais with their stickers "this car is blue", and just paint on the ship "this is a US ship". 🙂 

[KhunLA]

In true OTT reporting .... "USD skyrockets agaist THB to new high"

 

 

5 day miraculous strength of USD

 

[whiteman]

kiwi is back to 20 when i arrived 21 years ago it was 26