Analysis Quake Risk Lurking Under Bangkok: Fault Lines Spell Trouble

[webfact]

File photo for reference only

 

Bangkok's unique geography makes it susceptible to earthquakes, despite Thailand's low overall risk of tremors, warns Prof Pennung Warnitchai from the Asian Institute of Technology.

 

Speaking at the Bangkok Post Knowledge Forum, he shed light on how the city’s soft soil amplifies seismic waves, posing a potential hazard for high-rise buildings even from distant quakes.

 

Prof Pennung illustrated the impact of these features by referencing the earthquake felt in Bangkok on March 28, which originated from Myanmar's Sagaing Fault.

 

"The city's soft soil and basin-like terrain slow and amplify seismic waves, resulting in long-period ground motion," he said. This soil composition can magnify ground motion by up to four times, significantly affecting tall structures.

 

With the possibility of local and regional earthquakes, Prof Pennung described three hypothetical quake scenarios that could threaten Bangkok.

 

These include a 7.5-magnitude quake along the Kanchanaburi Fault, an 8.0-magnitude quake along the Sagaing Fault in Myanmar, and a rare 8.5-9.0 magnitude quake from the Andaman Sea fault.

 

Despite the statistical improbability of these occurrences, with a mere 10% chance of happening in a lifetime, they highlight a non-zero risk.

 

In response, since 2007, Bangkok has imposed building regulations requiring new constructions to adhere to earthquake-resistant standards.

 

The city is divided into ten zones, each with tailored building codes to manage local risk levels. Additionally, Bangkok employs five seismic monitoring stations that gather data to support these safety measures.

 

Most damage reported in the capital has been minor, affecting non-structural aspects of buildings rather than causing structural failures. However, the collapse of the State Audit Office building in Chatuchak after a recent tremor suggests lapses.

 

Prof Pennung, part of the investigation committee, indicated the building's unstable state contributed to its downfall, pending further inquiry into potential factors like corruption, poor materials, or design flaws.

 

This analysis underscores Bangkok's vulnerability while reminding that robust building practices and monitoring are crucial in mitigating seismic risk.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-05-16

 

 

[Unamerican]

So, nothing new here! 

[tomazbodner]

That Chatuchak building would have eventually collapsed, with or without earthquake.

[LALes]

The only thing that matters here is the prosecution of the people responsible

for the building collapse.  Safety codes MUST be enforced!

[Unamerican]

Sure, but is this relevant here? 

[Homburg]

This explains why the earth moves for so many in Bangkok!

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

Bangkok's unique geography makes it susceptible to earthquakes, despite Thailand's low overall risk of tremors, warns Prof Pennung Warnitchai from the Asian Institute of Technology.

Out of the woodwork comes another expert voicing their high opinion after the event.

Where was the professor when contracts were being given to Chinese construction companies with a penchant for using sub standard materials and sub standard labour?

[Photoguy21]

31 minutes ago, LALes said:

The only thing that matters here is the prosecution of the people responsible

for the building collapse.  Safety codes MUST be enforced!

To enforce SAFETY Codes you need to have them

[Guderian]

Things could be worse, at least they don't have problems with soil liquifaction like they do in the San Francisco area....

 

 

 

[wensiensheng]

In this day and age buildings are built that can withstand severe earthquakes, certainly more severe than the one that occurred recently. So the 10% lifetime risk of an earthquake, does become effectively zero if quality buildings are built.

 

So what is the earthquake durability of Bangkoks buildings? That is the question that should be asked and depending on the answer, acted upon.

[wensiensheng]

46 minutes ago, Photoguy21 said:

To enforce SAFETY Codes you need to have them

 

47 minutes ago, Photoguy21 said:

To enforce SAFETY Codes you need to have them

I think it’s like most topics, Thailand has plenty of laws, rules and regulations. They just aren’t observed or enforced. Traffic laws are a visible classic example. Buildings regulation observance is far less visible….until there is an earthquake that is.

[Bert got kinky]

 

So no problem for gabillions of years but after the recent tremors, we're now doomed.

 

[BuyBitcoin]

16 minutes ago, Bert got kinky said:

 

So no problem for gabillions of years but after the recent tremors, we're now doomed.

 

You think Thailand has had high rise buildings for "gabillions" of years?

[thongplay]

 "However, the collapse of the State Audit Office building in Chatuchak after a recent tremor suggests lapses."

 

"Lapses" of what?

 

[Bert got kinky]

1 minute ago, BuyBitcoin said:

You think Thailand has had high rise buildings for "gabillions" of years?

 

Depends if we are talking about American gabillions or British gabillions.

 

[BuyBitcoin]

2 minutes ago, Bert got kinky said:

 

Depends if we are talking about American gabillions or British gabillions.

 

Let's keep it scientific.  Metric gabillions. 

[Bert got kinky]

Just now, BuyBitcoin said:

Let's keep it scientific.  Metric gabillions. 

 

As a car wash attendant with 3 days of experience I think you’re 100% correct sir.

 

[xylophone]

53 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Things could be worse, at least they don't have problems with soil liquifaction like they do in the San Francisco area....

 

 

 

 

Soil liquefaction played a major part in the Christchurch (NZ) 2010 – 2011 earthquakes and there are still many areas that cannot be built on because of this.

[Robert Smith 2]

Bring in impartial, unbribeable building inspectors and check every Bangkok building over ten floors in height

[jas007]

44 minutes ago, Bert got kinky said:

 

So no problem for gabillions of years but after the recent tremors, we're now doomed.

 

There's a real risk, though, apparently.

 

People just don't understand how slow things can move. Or the dangers when they do.

 

In the USA, there's a volcano under Yellowstone Park that periodically erupts and may be overdue for another eruption, although that kind of thing can't be timed.  What they do know is that, over the past 2.1 million years, there have been three major eruptions, the last one occurring 631,000 years ago.  So it could erupt tomorrow, or maybe in another few hundred thousand years.

 

Off the coast of California, underwater, there's supposedly a long dormant volcano that may erupt sometime soon, according to recent news reports.

 

In Thailand, who knows?  Maybe there is a real risk of trouble sometime soon.

 

And it's just a matter of time before there's another major shift in the plate in the Indian Ocean.  

 

The question is this:  Are you going to sit around and put your life hold, perhaps, or are you going to live your life?  

[newbee2022]

Not any news.

But the earnings could have come a couple of days (decades) earlier.

 

[manta]

Time to move the Capital..

[scorecard]

3 hours ago, LALes said:

The only thing that matters here is the prosecution of the people responsible

for the building collapse.  Safety codes MUST be enforced!

 

And probably, safety codes should be enhanced so that buildings are stronger and much less likely to collapse. 

[kimothai]

Makes one wonder how many other completed buildings in Thailand are built to the same "standards" as the Chatuchak building?

[Yagoda]

Its not just the faults, its the nature of the ground in Bangkok.  Its the worst you could ever want during a severe quake.

[Caldera]

15 hours ago, webfact said:

Bangkok's unique geography makes it susceptible to earthquakes, despite Thailand's low overall risk of tremors, warns Prof Pennung Warnitchai from the Asian Institute of Technology.

 

Maybe those experts should have come out with that before all those high-rise buildings were added to Bangkok's skyline. Now what?!

[steven100]

did they find anymore trapped or just pancakes    ?  

[jas007]

14 minutes ago, Caldera said:

 

Maybe those experts should have come out with that before all those high-rise buildings were added to Bangkok's skyline. Now what?!

The technology is there to make buildings that are more or less earthquake proof. The question whether the Thai authorities can make it happen.  Can they set building standards and see that they're enforced?

[richard_smith237]

6 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Out of the woodwork comes another expert voicing their high opinion after the event.

Where was the professor when contracts were being given to Chinese construction companies with a penchant for using sub standard materials and sub standard labour?

 

Exactly where he needed to be...   doing his job.  Thailand had already adjusted building code to accomodate the risk. 

 

Are you suggesting is is not the professors job to be a civil engineer and building inspector too ? 

 

 

Of course, as others have said - this is not new information, he's merely reiterating measures put in place before the earthquake, what has been said post earth quake...    many of which people on this forum are well versed in.

 

 

1 hour ago, Caldera said:

Maybe those experts should have come out with that before all those high-rise buildings were added to Bangkok's skyline. Now what?!

 

They did - thats why the building codes were changed a few years ago.

 

Now What ?? - a little learning for you perhaps instead of shooting from the hip.

 

 

[richard_smith237]

4 hours ago, thongplay said:

 "However, the collapse of the State Audit Office building in Chatuchak after a recent tremor suggests lapses."

 

"Lapses" of what?

 

 

Polite face saving terminally for corruption and graft to such a degree that it could be classified as criminal negligence causing death and even Manslaughter.