Analysis Rising Tensions: Is Full-Scale War Looming on Thailand-Cambodia Border?

[webfact]

Composite image courtesy of Sima Rath

 

From 2011 Clashes to 2025 Turmoil: Strategic Insights

 

Background: A Decade Ago

 

In 2011, the Thai-Cambodian relations hit a boiling point. Abhisit Vejjajiva's government faced nationalist pressure over the disputed 4.6-square-kilometer area around the Preah Vihear Temple. Cambodia's unilateral World Heritage Site registration ignited this conflict, leading to intense clashes that rocked both nations.

 

2011 Crisis Overview

 

January: Seven Thai citizens were arrested, escalating tensions.

4-7 February: Heavy weapon clashes near the Preah Vihear and Phu Makhua involved fatalities and property damage.

April: Battles erupted at Ta Muean Thom and Ta Kwai, lasting several days.

28 April: Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

18 July: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered the withdrawal of troops from the disputed zone.

2025: Heightened Tensions Erupt

 

On 24 July 2025, tensions reignited, threatening to surpass past conflicts. Clashes erupted at Ta Muean Thom in Surin, spreading to the Preah Vihear in Sisaket.

 

 

Cambodia Initiates Fire: Reports confirm Cambodian forces encroached and attacked Thai troops.
Landmine Injuries: Two Thai soldiers were injured, one losing a leg, amid accusations of new Cambodian landmines.

Thai Retaliation: Artillery was deployed to defend sovereignty.

Diplomatic Fallout: Thailand expelled the Cambodian envoy, and Cambodia downgraded diplomatic ties.
Border Closures: Checkpoints at Chong Bok, Chong Chom, Ta Muean Thom, and Ta Kwai were shut to control the situation.

 

Rocket Attack Escalates Conflict

 

Cambodian forces allegedly launched BM21 rockets at Ban Jorakhe, Surin, resulting in one civilian death and severe injuries, including children. A similar incident at a petrol station in Sisaket injured numerous people, igniting pressure on the Thai government to respond.

 

Thailand's International Defence Stance

 

The Thai military claims that its actions align with international law, specifically the UN Charter's Article 51 on self-defence. The Foreign Ministry has briefed the UN Security Council (UNSC), stressing that attacks are solely military-focused and cultural heritage sites are safeguarded.

 

 

Potential Full-Scale War: Looming Threat

 

High Escalation Risk: Repeated intrusions and rocket strikes on civilians may push Thailand towards intensified military measures.

Negotiation Hurdles: ASEAN or ICJ interventions may falter due to internal dynamics in Thailand and Cambodia, potentially delaying diplomatic resolutions.

War Prospects: Who Holds the Advantage?

 

Thailand's Strengths:

Thailand's strengths include its superior military capabilities, particularly its air power and long-range artillery.

The proximity to Thai communities provides robust logistical support.

Likely global support if perceived defensively.

Thailand's Challenges:

Rugged terrain limits heavy weapon efficacy.

Political pressures may deter prolonged military engagement.

Cambodia's Strengths:

The country boasts established positions and pre-laid mines.

Diplomatic ties with nations like China.

Cambodia's Challenges:

Cambodia faces challenges due to its inferior military strength.
Complex logistics.

Risk of global condemnation if seen as the aggressor.

Conclusion: Could This Ignite a Major Conflict?

 

The 2025 Thai-Cambodian border situation is perilously close to escalating into a limited war. While Thailand's military edge is clear, political fragility is a critical weakness. Conversely, Cambodia leverages psychological tactics despite battlefield disadvantages. Without controlled escalation, both nations could face their most significant conflict in decades.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Siam Rath 2025-07-25

 

 

[JAG]

Golly, that F16 was low!

[KhunBENQ]

28 minutes ago, webfact said:

Diplomatic ties with nations like China.

Chinese backed. Taken over essentially.

While US acknowledges Thai military action.

Make up your own thoughts.

 

Chinese have offered to mediate.

Hope they are serious.

[ravip]

I sincerely hope this fight will not escalate any more.

[JAG]

I have to wonder what was the point in firing a BM21 rocket into an apparently unrelated area of Thailand.

 

BM21 is an early generation ( Soviet 1960s era) Multiple Rocket Launch System (MRLS). Its purpose was to saturate an area with fire from salvos fired from several launchers at the same time, either with high explosive warheads prior to an infantry or armoured assault, or with a sudden concentration of chemical munitions (typically blood agents) to kill all unprotected personnel in a fairly large area. Its use to fire random single rockets into areas is pretty pointless - it is inherently inaccurate - when a conventional artillery gun would be more effective, accurate and deliver a larger bang. Cambodia is quite well supplied with venerable but still effective and far more accurate Soviet era 122mm and 152mm guns; far more suitable and accurate for going after a specific depth target.

 

The BM21 system only real advantage is its longer range (about 50km). I suspect that the 7/11 (and perhaps the hospital) were the unfortunate recipients of a Cambodian attempt to demonstrate their potential firepower by lobbing some rockets in the general direction of Thailand.

 

It also has a very significant signature when fired, which would make it vulnerable to counter battery fire or air attack.

 

[bkk6060]

I see it escalating.

[Mitkof Island]

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

[MikeandDow]

14 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

I see it escalating.

Not a chance !!!  the big boss (china) will stop this 

[Artisi]

Both sides should take a look at the "Whisky War" that raged for a number of years between Canada and  Greenland, this was about the ownership of small island where both parties in good nature took it in turns to claim is as their territory, plant your flag and leave a bottle of whisky / schnapps. 

Not that much difference to a couple of small temple areas of really no significant value and is way over the top and could easily be resolved with a bit if common sense of both parties. 

[Mitkof Island]

A little late now for booze. Thaksin and family leaves no more Cambodia problems, no more deep south problems, no more ganja war problems, no more chaos within the government, tourists return and stop voting in rich people.

[lordgrinz]

Thailand has shut off Hun Sens gravy train (Chinese Scam networks) that's why he is desperate and lashing out, he is losing money and power. 

 

Quote

 

Criminal Networks, Not Patriotism: The True Source of Hun Sen’s Fury Toward Thailand

https://thegeopolitics.com/criminal-networks-not-patriotism-the-true-source-of-hun-sens-fury-toward-thailand/#google_vignette

 

 

[SenorTashi]

Countries which claim to be Buddhist should not be involved in any kind of war

[hotandsticky]

1 minute ago, SenorTashi said:

Countries which claim to be Buddhist should not be involved in any kind of war

 

 

People claim to be Buddhists, not nations.

[SenorTashi]

1 minute ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

People claim to be Buddhists, not nations.

A Thai friend recently posted a professional looking video saying how proud Thailand was to be 95% Buddhist.

Just had a quick look and Cambodia is 97% Buddhist.

 

 

 

[stupidfarang]

41 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

Thailand has shut off Hun Sens gravy train (Chinese Scam networks) that's why he is desperate and lashing out, he is losing money and power. 

 

 

Thanks for the link, an excellent article

[Georgealbert]

UPDATE
Thai-Cambodian Border Clashes Continue on Second Day

 

Picture courtesy of Khaosod.

 

Tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border intensified on the morning of 25 July, as fierce clashes erupted for a second consecutive day, prompting urgent warnings for civilians to avoid the affected zones.

 

Military sources confirmed that Thailand responded with the deployment of its domestically-manufactured ATMG 155mm artillery, successfully neutralising several Cambodian BM-21 rocket launch sites. “The Thai-made artillery gave no quarter,” read a statement on the Royal Thai Army – Instant Updates Facebook page. “Enemy encampments in Chom Krosan have been flattened.”

 

According to Colonel Ritcha Suksuwanon, deputy army spokesman, the clash began around 04:00 in multiple areas, namely Chong Bok, Phu Makua (Ubon Ratchathani province), and Phanom Dong Rak (Surin province). Cambodian troops reportedly unleashed heavy weaponry, including field artillery and BM-21 rockets, prompting the Thai Army to engage in proportionate retaliatory strikes and issue public safety alerts.

 

At approximately 04:30, Cambodian forces launched an aggressive assault on Thai military positions near Chom Krosan district, according to the Royal Thai Army. Reports indicate that Cambodian troops initiated gunfire without provocation, prompting immediate retaliation from Thai forces.

 

The situation intensified near the Preah Vihear temple area, with Cambodian forces believed to be attempting to seize Hill 469, a strategic high ground near the disputed border. The Thai military confirmed skirmishes around this zone and warned civilians to steer clear of all border areas amid the worsening conflict.

 

Throughout the early hours, fighting flared in multiple hotspots:

 

• 04:50: Thai paramilitary rangers observed six suspected Cambodian tanks lined up near Chong Plod Tang.

 

• 05:30: Cambodian forces opened fire near the Suru Banana Forest area; Thailand’s Scorpion light tanks responded from the vicinity of Ta Muen Thom Temple.

 

• 05:35: Thai artillery struck back at tank positions opposite Chong Bok, targeting high ground behind the so-called “No Name Hill”.

 

• 05:50: Thai troops began a counter-assault towards Phu Makua.

 

• 06:29: Cambodian forces launched a concentrated barrage on Hill 408 using artillery and mortars, attempting to secure Hill 469. The attack originated from the Cambodian district of Chom Krosan and included BM-21 launches aimed at the Sam Taek area.

 

• 07:54: Heavy fighting continued along the Sisaket province border, with no signs of de-escalation.

 

In an official update, the 2nd Army Region reiterated the seriousness of the confrontation and urged local residents to avoid all border regions. “There are active engagements across several border locations. Civilians are strongly advised not to enter or travel near conflict zones,” the warning read.

 

Meanwhile, the Thai government is documenting the clashes carefully, asserting that the Cambodian side was the aggressor. Evidence gathered by the Thai Army allegedly supports this claim and has been submitted for further diplomatic and legal evaluation.

 

The situation remains highly volatile, with no ceasefire in sight. The Thai military has vowed to defend national sovereignty “with full force” should the conflict escalate further.

 

 

  Adapted by Asean Now from Khaosod 2025-07-25

 

 

 

 

[GreasyFingers]

2 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

 

Just read on the Thai Enquirer that Thaksin says there is no need for outside intervention to stop the fighting because "Hun Sen needs to be taught a lesson"

Wonderful government, wonderful man.

 

[lordgrinz]

1 hour ago, stupidfarang said:

Thanks for the link, an excellent article

 

Yup, shutting off half of the GDP of a country is HUGE!

 

Quote

"These activities generate an estimated $12.5 billion annually—nearly half of Cambodia’s GDP."

 

[whiteman]

We will know it is bad when the first car bomb goes off outside a tourist bar in Bangkok. Till then all smoke and mirrors.

[smedly]

there is a massive difference between the the two countries and their military size and capability, on paper Thailand is far superior in every way by some margin

[Taboo2]

Calm down Soyboys....no more escalation....both sides know that war is bad for business, especially during the Monsoon season.

 

Cambodia needs to pay those families who lost loved ones due to their stupid arty shelling.  Effing cowards.

[John Drake]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Cambodia Initiates Fire: Reports confirm Cambodian forces encroached and attacked Thai troops.

 

Would Cambodia take the initiative unless it knew it had China's support? Cambodia is almost 100 percent dependent on China. Thailand is also dependent, but not that much. So will China use this skirmish to leverage more out of Thailand? 

[Will B Good]

 Cambodian President Hun Sen did travel to China last week.

 

Reports indicate that he boarded a private jet from Phnom Penh en route to China following a military escalation involving Cambodia and Thailand. 

 

???????

[spidermike007]

One potential way to deescalate the situation would be to find a reason to lock up Thaksin and his rather ridiculous daughter. An olive branch. They started it after all, at least this time around. 

 

Neither side has much to gain by an escalation however of the two I would consider Cambodia to be a bit more maniacal as it's run by genocidal, thieving numbskulls. Having said that if this were to escalate Cambodia is in for a serious butt kicking. 

[Peterphuket]

Why don't they flatten Preah Vihear, at least they can stop arguing about that.
1 problem solved.

[outsider]

5 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

 

He and his brainless daughter. 

[Will B Good]

Just now, Peterphuket said:

Why don't they flatten Preah Vihear, at least they can stop arguing about that.
1 problem solved.

 

Just as much about the land.

 

Some neutral body should take charge of all these disputed temples/land and run them giving fair and equal access to both sides.

 

 

[Peterphuket]

Just now, Will B Good said:

 

Just as much about the land.

 

Some neutral body should take charge of all these disputed temples/land and run them giving fair and equal access to both sides.

 

 

As it was before, I visit that more than once.

[malt25]

5 hours ago, SenorTashi said:

A Thai friend recently posted a professional looking video saying how proud Thailand was to be 95% Buddhist.

Just had a quick look and Cambodia is 97% Buddhist.

 

 

 

So Cambodia win ?

[lordgrinz]

4 minutes ago, outsider said:

 

He and his brainless daughter. 

 

Along with Hun Sen, and his brainless son.