58 minutes ago, kwonitoy said:

Russian authorities reported a wave of overnight drone attacks across at least seven regions, triggering power and heating outages and sparking a fire at one of the world’s largest ammonia producers.

 

Russian cities Oryol, Tolyatti, and Rostov-on-Don came under attack overnight on December 19. Some areas were left completely without power, according to Russian Telegram channels.

 

Rostov-on-Don

Witnesses reported overnight that the city was attacked by unidentified missiles and missiles. Residents said they counted two missile strikes. According to their accounts, the first missile hit a thermal power plant, while the second struck transformer equipment. Later, the governor of Russia's Rostov region said that cities and districts in the region had "once again come under an air attack" overnight. According to him, the impact was felt in Rostov-on-Don, Taganrog, and the Kuibyshevsky, Matveyevo-Kurgansky, and Rodionovo-Nesvetaysky districts.

 

Oryol

Residents of the Russian city of Oryol also complained about unidentified missiles allegedly attacking a local thermal power plant.

The regional governor confirmed the attack on Oryol, stating that an item of the city's municipal infrastructure was damaged as a result of the hostile strike. Repair work is underway, and temporary restrictions on heating, electricity, and hot water supply are possible in one district of the city.

 

Tolyatti

According to residents, Tolyatti in Russia's Samara region was attacked by unidentified drones.

TolyattiAzot is one of Russia's largest chemical plants and one of the world's biggest ammonia producers. The enterprise is strategically important for Russia's chemical industry and fertilizer exports.

 

Multiple Russian cities hit overnight, power outages reported in Oryol, Tolyatti and Rostov

 

 

 

Ukraine's successes in asymmetric warfare get wide coverage. Often they get broadcast again and again for days or weeks. Russia's successes, on the other hand, receive limited coverage, except when civilian deaths are substantial and Russia can be accused of war crimes. Therefore, though I wish Ukraine well, I am not unduly optimistic. Is Ukraine inflicting more than "bee stings" on its enemy?

 

For instance Ukraine strikes Russia's oil facilities on a nearly daily basis. Yet this is what AI tells me about the impact: "As of mid-December 2025, no single consensus exists, but strikes have damaged equipment equivalent to ~20-25% of capacity (1.3-1.65 Mbd), forcing some units offline for weeks to months. However, overall refining output has fallen only ~3-6% year-over-year (to ~5-5.1 Mbd), per industry data, as Russia repairs quickly, shifts loads, and activates idle units." And this is probably not counting Russia's ability to import fuel from neighbouring friendly countries.

 

If Ukrainians had not deserted en masse (600k in EU countries), Ukraine would be occupying Moscow by now. Some years ago, Russian conscriptees were said by western media's wishful thinkers to torch recruiting stations remember? Now we know Russian desertions have been few. Wishing thinking cannot win this war for Ukraine.

 

Of course, we don't know what state the Russian war machine is. If I'm not mistaken, in 1918 the Central Powers' collapse was sudden and unexpected.

 

 

6 hours ago, TedG said:

But the EU lacks the military to provide any security guarantees. 

The combined EU military dwarfs Russias.

3 hours ago, gargamon said:

The combined EU military dwarfs Russias.

 

Are you sure about that ?

On 12/12/2025 at 10:23 PM, CallumWK said:

 

How is Siem Reap these days?

What do you mean.? Why?

1 hour ago, johng said:

 

Are you sure about that ?

Did it upset you......................?    😉

Not at all.

5 hours ago, johng said:

 

Are you sure about that ?

Yes

And if you add Canada, Australia, etc to make it even more lobsided.

2 hours ago, gargamon said:

And if you add Canada, Australia

Sounds more and more like WWIII to me..I wonder which side China and India will come down on ?

7 hours ago, johng said:

 

Are you sure about that ?

Depended on Russia attacks Europe or Europe attacks Russia. Attack war and capturing land is the difficult part, especially if the moral his high and unison among those who is attacked. Ukraine and Afghanistan is good examples how difficult it is to hold necessary lines when invading. 

 

A war with Russia means they invade Finland, the baltics and Poland additionally to Ukraine. And that is not realistic. Georgia is more or less in Russians hands for now, but could be some uproar there 

23 hours ago, JackGats said:

Ukraine's successes in asymmetric warfare get wide coverage. Often they get broadcast again and again for days or weeks. Russia's successes, on the other hand, receive limited coverage, except when civilian deaths are substantial and Russia can be accused of war crimes. Therefore, though I wish Ukraine well, I am not unduly optimistic. Is Ukraine inflicting more than "bee stings" on its enemy?

 

For instance Ukraine strikes Russia's oil facilities on a nearly daily basis. Yet this is what AI tells me about the impact: "As of mid-December 2025, no single consensus exists, but strikes have damaged equipment equivalent to ~20-25% of capacity (1.3-1.65 Mbd), forcing some units offline for weeks to months. However, overall refining output has fallen only ~3-6% year-over-year (to ~5-5.1 Mbd), per industry data, as Russia repairs quickly, shifts loads, and activates idle units." And this is probably not counting Russia's ability to import fuel from neighbouring friendly countries.

 

If Ukrainians had not deserted en masse (600k in EU countries), Ukraine would be occupying Moscow by now. Some years ago, Russian conscriptees were said by western media's wishful thinkers to torch recruiting stations remember? Now we know Russian desertions have been few. Wishing thinking cannot win this war for Ukraine.

 

Of course, we don't know what state the Russian war machine is. If I'm not mistaken, in 1918 the Central Powers' collapse was sudden and unexpected.

 

 

 

 

Over 1 million Russians, mostly men, have left Russia since Feb 2022. Why are you not saying Russians have deserted en masse.

 

In both cases, these are NOT deserters. Deserters are people who leave the battlefield in uniform. On neither side are these people who deserted the army. They might have left to avoid military service, but  that is a different matter.

 

Estimates of Russian desertion rates

 

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/silent-exodus-rising-desertions-in

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/08/50000-russian-troops-have-deserted/

 

 

 

 

Ukrainian prosecutors give some idea of the scale of desertion on the Ukraine side. 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/9/record-numbers-of-ukrainians-desert-army-amid-losses-to-russia

 

Quote

Prosecutors said in October that some 235,000 servicemen went AWOL, and almost 54,000 have deserted since Russia began its full-scale invasion in 2022. Those numbers began to snowball last year. Some 176,000 AWOL cases and 25,000 desertions were registered between September 2024 and September 2025.

 

 

 

Ukrainian army forces; 900,000 in active service, 4 million in reserve. Assume 30,000 desert per year; 3.33% annual desertion rate. Being AWOL doesn't mean you have deserted.

 

Russian army; 1,500,000 in active service (looking to expand to 2.4 million), 2 million in reserve. But only contractors, not conscripts fight. The estimates for the number of Army contractors vary  from 37% of active servicemen. to around 750,000 having signed contracts (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/some-450000-russians-signed-contracts-serve-army-2024-says-medvedev-2025-01-24/, https://tass.com/politics/2031653, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334413/military-personnel-in-russia-by-type/#:~:text=The Russian Armed Forces had,and 250%2C000 were paramilitary forces.,)

 

Russian law prohibits conscripts from being on the front line. The last time Moscow used conscript troops in war was in the First Chechen War, were they were essentially routed by trained and committed, but ill equipped mountain men. Assume the lower desertion estimate of 50,000, and the upper number of contractors, then there is a 6.7% annual desertion rate.

 

The Russian army is not fully committed in Ukraine. It has to bolster defences against Norway, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, on the grounds that NATO is a threat. It has to maintain forces in a defensive stature in the Bering Straits, because of the US. It has to maintain a presence in Chechenya, because of a civil war. It continues to be wary of Chinese claims to territories. It provides peacekeeping forces to some former Soviet Republics. It has limited forces deployed elsewhere.

 

On the contrary, the Ukrainian military is fully committed in Ukraine. Conscripts are part of that fighting force.

 

To put these numbers in an historical context.

 

WW2:

British Army Desertion Rate

 

1/10/39-30/9/40: army strength (average) 1,538,675; deserters 6,889; incidence per thousand soldiers 4.48
1/10/40-30/9/41: army strength (average) 2,211,547; deserters 22,248; incidence per thousand soldiers 10.05
1/10/41-30/9/42: army strength (average) 2,455,720; deserters 20,834; incidence per thousand soldiers 8.49
1/10/42-30/9/43: army strength (average) 2,681,697; deserters 15,824; incidence per thousand soldiers 5.9
1/10/43-30/9/44: army strength (average) 2,729,480; deserters 16,892; incidence per thousand soldiers 6.19
1/10/44-30/9/45: army strength (average) 2,830,831; deserters 17,663; incidence per thousand soldiers 6.24.

 

https://www.historynet.com/breaking-point-why-do-soldiers-desert/

 

https://sk.sagepub.com/ency/edvol/encyclopedia-of-military-science/chpt/desertion

US Army reported an annual desertion rate from the European theatre of 6.3%.

 

The difficulty in considering total deserters and those going AWOL is you don't know the numbers caught and returned to service. Most AWOL soldiers actually go back to service. Most acts of AWOL are administrative; the soldier is late returning to duty, and they do go back, with a fine or extra duties. And many deserters are also caught, and eventually persuaded back. The annual rate is more useful.

 

Russian annual desertion rates are double Ukraine's, a fair reflection that the average Russian squaddie is actually less committed to dying in a field in the Donbas than his government thinks.

 

But desertion rates on both side seem to be within entirely "normal" limits.

 

There is no absolute measure of the tipping point of desertion affecting combat effectiveness. A 1971 article written by an American colonel used apocalyptic language to describe the state of the US forces in Vietnam.

 

https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~furrg/Vietnam/heinl.html

 

Quote

 

THE MORALE, DISCIPLINE and battleworthiness of the U.S. Armed Forces are, with a few salient exceptions, lower and worse than at anytime in this century and possibly in the history of the United States.

 

By every conceivable indicator, our army that now remains in Vietnam is in a state approaching collapse, with individual units avoiding or having _refused_ combat, murdering their officers and non commissioned officers, drug-ridden, and dispirited where not near mutinous.

 

Elsewhere than Vietnam, the situation is nearly as serious.

 

Intolerably clobbered and buffeted from without and within by social turbulence, pandemic drug addiction, race war, sedition, civilian scapegoatise, draftee recalcitrance and malevolence, barracks theft and common crime, unsupported in their travail by the general government, in Congress as well as the executive branch, distrusted, disliked, and often reviled by the public, the uniformed services today are places of agony for the loyal, silent professions who doggedly hang on and try to keep the ship afloat. 

 

 

 President Volodymyr Zelensky says the country now produces more than 50% of the weapons it uses on the front line. Almost its entire inventory of long-range weapons is domestically made. The Flamingo is the kind of deep-strike weapon that Western nations have been reluctant to supply.

The cruise missile is said to have a range of 3,000km (1,900 miles). That's similar to a US-made Tomahawk – the more sophisticated and expensive weapon that US President Donald Trump refused to give Ukraine.

 

 

Deep strikes are seen as a critical part of the war, for which Ukraine mainly uses long-range drones. It is still losing ground to Russia on a front line that stretches for more than a thousand kilometres. So Ukraine is increasingly trying to target Russia's war economy, to slow those advances.

The head of Ukraine's Armed Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, says Ukraine's long-range strikes have already cost the Russian economy more than $21.5bn this year.

 

Fire Point now produces 200 drones a day

 

Ms Terekh of Fire Point, says they've made a deliberate decision to source as many of their components as possible from within Ukraine.

"We are following the principle that no one can influence the weapons we build," she says. They avoid parts from two specific countries – China and the United States.

Asked why there should be no American components, she says "we're on an emotional roller coaster [with the US]. Tomorrow somebody may want to shut it down, and we would not be able to use our own weapons."

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1dz6wgn2w9o

Sweden will provide Ukraine with $200 million in direct budgetary support in 2026. The funds are intended to cover the needs of the population, including public services, pensions, and other payments, reports Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

"Grateful to Sweden for today's announcement of the $200 million in direct budgetary support for Ukraine in 2026," the post said.

 

Sybiha emphasized that Sweden has set an example from the very beginning. In August, it became the first country to provide $75 million in direct budget support. Today, Stockholm "reinforces that leadership with an additional contribution."

 

The foreign minister also clarified how the aid will be used.

"This funding will support people’s daily needs in the midst of the war, including critical public services, energy supply, healthcare, schools, pensions, and other payments. We are deeply grateful for Sweden’s determination, support, and unwavering solidarity," Sybiha concluded.

 

Sweden to allocate $200 million in direct budgetary support for Ukraine in 2026

 

 

We have a saying for it good money after bad that will make Europe less safe and provide a probable minimum 10% skim off the top for Z and his mates. The Ukrainian leadership like the Russians can't afford for the war to stop they are both trapped in a death spiral. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-pay-e3b-interest-per-year-ukraine-loan/

 

EU taxpayers will have to pay €3 billion per year in borrowing costs as part of a plan to raise common debt to finance Ukraine’s defense against Russia, according to senior European Commission officials. The war-ravaged country faces a budget shortfall of €71.7 billion next year-POLITICO.EU 

 

The new plan won’t come cheap. The EU is expected to pay €3 billion annually in interest from 2028 through its seven-year budget, which is largely financed by EU governments, senior Commission officials told reporters on Friday. Interest payments would begin in 2027, but would cost only €1 billion that year.

Ukraine will only have to repay the loan once Russia ends the war and pays war reparations. That seems unlikely, which means the EU could continuously roll over the debt or use frozen Russian assets to repay it. 

That would require another political agreement among EU leaders, as Belgium is strongly opposed to using the frozen assets, most of which are held in the Brussels-based financial depository Euroclear.

Breaking news.

Undersupplied cannibalistic horde of Eastern savages who have to fight with shovels and use donkeys as transportation have taken Myrnograd in a meat assault on crutches.

 

The nonsense the GUR are pumping our for a gullible western audience and some here is really  off the scale. Anybody remember the Ghost of Kyiv !! 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/15675343/putin-troops-cannibalism-war-rations-low/

 

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (GUR) released the haunting audio which was taken from the frontline in Zaporizhzhia.

A male voice can be heard saying in the recording: “We’ll eat each other, it’s all f**ked up here.

“We’re already looking for someone younger. I’ve sharpened my knives. I have a lot of knives.”

The audio continues: “I don’t give a f**k who I have to cut up.

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Breaking news.

Undersupplied cannibalistic horde of Eastern savages who have to fight with shovels and use donkeys as transportation have taken Myrnograd in a meat assault on crutches.

 

The nonsense the GUR are pumping our for a gullible western audience and some here is really  off the scale. Anybody remember the Ghost of Kyiv !! 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv

 

https://www.the-sun.com/news/15675343/putin-troops-cannibalism-war-rations-low/

 

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense (GUR) released the haunting audio which was taken from the frontline in Zaporizhzhia.

A male voice can be heard saying in the recording: “We’ll eat each other, it’s all f**ked up here.

“We’re already looking for someone younger. I’ve sharpened my knives. I have a lot of knives.”

The audio continues: “I don’t give a f**k who I have to cut up.

 

Why the "Ukraine is winning the war," propaganda is propagated.  

"Who needs this war? Politicians who believe that a nuclear power can be defeated on the battlefield, arms manufacturers who profit from endless conflicts, and bankers who have bet on Russia's military defeat," 
- Hungarian PM Viktor Orban

 

Too much money is being spread around to the elites who promote the war, especially via the Ukraine money-laundering machine of corruption.  The war isn't about Ukraine.  Ukraine is simply the proxy used for NATO power projection.  Because the war is a giant suck that hoovers money and wealth for the West, there will never be motivation to end the war short of a military defeat on the ground.  And anyone who can see this conflict through the lens of history should also be able to ascertain which country will win on the battlefield and which countries will lose. Until then there will be endless propaganda.
The conflict WILL end with an unconditional surrender.

3 hours ago, jvs said:

 

 

He used to grift for the far right  and then pivoted. 

 

 

42 minutes ago, connda said:

Why the "Ukraine is winning the war," propaganda is propagated.  

"Who needs this war? Politicians who believe that a nuclear power can be defeated on the battlefield, arms manufacturers who profit from endless conflicts, and bankers who have bet on Russia's military defeat," 
- Hungarian PM Viktor Orban

 

Too much money is being spread around to the elites who promote the war, especially via the Ukraine money-laundering machine of corruption.  The war isn't about Ukraine.  Ukraine is simply the proxy used for NATO power projection.  Because the war is a giant suck that hoovers money and wealth for the West, there will never be motivation to end the war short of a military defeat on the ground.  And anyone who can see this conflict through the lens of history should also be able to ascertain which country will win on the battlefield and which countries will lose. Until then there will be endless propaganda.
The conflict WILL end with an unconditional surrender.

Lol! Who needs this war: Putin! 

A Russian general has been killed in a car bombing in Moscow, officials have said.

Russia's Investigative Committee said Lt Gen Fanil Sarvarov died on Monday morning after an explosive device planted under a car detonated.

 

Sarvarov, 56, was the head of the armed forces' operational training department, the committee added.

It said one theory being investigated was that the bomb was planted with the involvement of Ukrainian intelligence services. Ukraine has not commented.

 

The explosion occurred on Monday morning outside a block of flats south of Moscow

 

 

According to Russian media, Sarvarov previously took part in combat operations during the Ossetian-Ingush conflict and the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, and also led operations in Syria between 2015-2016.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a number of military officials have been targeted in the Russian capital.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8jwn9wznx1o

14 hours ago, jvs said:

 

Stopped watching when he said a submarine was decimated.  I know it's a pet peeve but WHY don't people learn what words they plan to use mean?  

 

Irks me as much as people who pronounce nuclear "nuk-yu-lar".  AArrrggggg,  

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2003252743410962432/vid/avc1/720x1280/k_qXkbPcvY6MGfIy.mp4

 

I'm calling yet ANOTHER momentum shift.

Originally when this topic started, Ukraine had the winning momentum. 

Then I called a momentum shift towards Russia.

Now I'm calling another one back to Ukraine.

 

Why?

Russian economy deteriorating more rapidly.

Ukraine continue to shock and awe with surptising and ingenuous hits on military targets in Russia.

Putin is finding it impossible to take the rest of Donbass and has wasted hundreds of thousands of Russian lives (that he doesn't care about) trying

Ukrainians still have their resolve not to become slaves of Russia.

Trump's disgusting traitorous efforts to side with Putin and force Ukraine to surrender appear to be fizzling. The vast majority of the American people and legislators other than at the presidential continue to support Ukraine against Russia.

Prices for Russian oil now in the toilet.

Last, and probably most important.

Europe did not cave!

A funding scheme that has the potential to fund Ukraine's defense efforts for 5 to 8 years.

Russia might not have 5 to 8 months to afford contunuing. 

No I am not predicting that Ukraine will "win" however that is defined or has much chance to take back already stolen lands, bjt this is momentum shift towards Ukraine is very clear and very real. 

Kremlin bots and propagandists, useful maga fascists idiots for Putin, and mindless true believers in narrow minded dogmatic Mearsheimer -- eat my shorts.

I'll have a substantive reply to Jingthing's superficial take in due course, but despite his name he's far from the truth.
Meanwhile back in Mearsheimer reality where a few of us live ignored and reviled the facts paint a very different picture.

 

Ukraine scrabbles for handholds against Russia’s massive assault
A counter-attack in Kupiansk is promising, but the overall outlook is not - THE ECONOMIST 

 

https://archive.ph/K57yV#selection-1177.0-1181.73

 

Ukraine is struggling in Donbas and Zaporizhia for three reasons. The first is its well-documented difficulties with conscription and materiel. Russia, by contrast, is drawing on a far larger pool and has little difficulty finding recruits to feed its costly offensive. A source in Ukraine’s general staff said that during the first half of 2025 Russia’s army grew by an average of 8,000–9,000 soldiers a month, despite heavy losses, while Ukraine struggled to replace its own casualties. The Russian grouping in Ukraine now stands at roughly 710,000 troops, with an operational reserve of about 50,000. “They are still exceeding their recruitment targets by 20-30%,” said a Ukrainian intelligence officer. “They create conditions in the regions such that people choose between starving or signing a big contract with the armed forces.”

 

 

Now I know the Sun is a joke newspaper - they did cannabalism amongst Russian troops a couple days ago, now theyve topped even that.But whats disgusting isnt just the tabloid sensationalism. The popular press is actively grooming the Western public for all-out war with Russia through nonsense like this.

 

Apart from clicks theres a more sinister motive at play.Think about it: Every day its another dehumanizing story. Russians eating eachother, mass rapes, cartoonish evil. Not saying war crimes arent happening - they are - but the pattern of coverage is designed to make escalation pallatable. To make the public think "these arent humans, their monsters" so when the call comes to send troops or go nuclear nobody questions it.

This is textbook war propaganda. We saw it before Iraq (WMDs, babies thrown from incubators), before Libya, before every major intervention. Manufacture consent through emotional manipulation and dehumanization.
The establishment knows the public is war-weary. They know people dont want their kids dying in Eastern Europe. So they have to prepare the population psychologically. Make Russia so cartoonishly evil that eventually "we have no choice but to intervene directly" seems reasonable. And most people wont even realize their being manipulated untill were already in it.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/37701780/putin-brain-weapons-drones-alter-memories/

 

Prof Dando, who recently penned a report on the rising threat of neuro weapons, is now begging the UK to take the threat seriously.

The University of Bradford’s Department of Peace Studies professor warns that untraceable drones that spike soldiers with hallucinogens could be just around the corner.

He told The Sun: “You’ve got a history of this kind of thing, and you’ve got a massive change in science and technology.

“And the worry is: put those two things together, and we’ll end up with a new set of agents that do much more specific things than just sedate.”

Owen Matthews - Europe has left Ukraine living on borrowed time - THE SPECTATOR

 

https://archive.ph/UnoKr

 

The bottom line for Ukraine is that its economy and war effort rely entirely on Western aid – and with funding from the US cut off by Trump since February, in practice that means that Europe must find a way to foot the bill. Just to maintain current levels of spending, Ukraine requires some €137 billion (£120 billion) in 2026 and 2027. But even the €140 billion (£123 billion) reparations loan that failed this week would not have been a silver bullet to fix Kyiv’s financial black hole. Europeans insisted that €45 billion (£39 billion) of the money be used to pay back a loan made in November 2024, knocking the net payout down to €95 billion (£83 billion). Another chunk would also have gone on expensive armaments from Germany, France and Sweden, all of whom have signed massive arms deals with Zelensky that would have ensured that a large slice of the reparations loan would have ended up in the pockets of European arms manufacturers.