1 hour ago, newnative said:

      You are correct that 'the numbers are fluid'.   And, that is normal.  Numbers projections are usually 'fluid'.  TAT starts the year with a projection for the year, based on a number of factors.  As the year progresses, the projected number is adjusted, as actual data comes in.   Although some posters seem to live to read about these adjustments--crowing with glee when TAT changes a projection--it's all normal.

     You are also correct that it is highly unlikely that Thailand will hit 40 million.  I think TAT's highest projection at the beginning of the year was 39 million.  As the year has progressed with actual numbers, the projection has been adjusted downward, to around 33 million.  

     TAT based it's beginning of the year projection of 39 million tourists largely on the results of 2024's 35.5 million tourists.  The big factor, of course, was the steep decline in Chinese tourists.  The war with Cambodia has also hurt the numbers, and it began after the early 2025 projections were made.  Despite all the sturm und drang, I continue to maintain that a figure of 33 million tourists is plenty, and double what Thailand was getting in 2010, when I arrived and thought there were lots of tourists around.  

 

     

I was in BKK for the last few days and it was somewhat quiet  and did not see or hear the sounds of Chinese visitors.  .  30 to 33 mil for 2025 is deinitely doable. 

On 9/12/2025 at 8:33 AM, mikebell said:

The population of Hat Yai doubles every weekend as Malay males cross into Thailand shopping for oats.

Shopping for or to sow oats?

44 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

I was in BKK for the last few days and it was somewhat quiet  and did not see or hear the sounds of Chinese visitors.  .  30 to 33 mil for 2025 is deinitely doable. 

Agree.

On 9/12/2025 at 7:37 AM, topt said:

So what was the number this time last year - anybody know?

You would think that would be the most obvious comparison but I guess it depends on the narrative you are trying to project.

Thailand's revered tourism sector is experiencing a noticeable downturn this year, with foreign tourist arrivals slipping by 7.16% up to the end of August, compared with the same timeframe in 2022. The Tourism Ministry unveiled this challenging situation on Tuesday, 2nd September.

30 minutes ago, cracker1 said:

Thailand's revered tourism sector is experiencing a noticeable downturn this year, with foreign tourist arrivals slipping by 7.16% up to the end of August, compared with the same timeframe in 2022. The Tourism Ministry unveiled this challenging situation on Tuesday, 2nd September.

Google says the first 9 months of 2024 had 26.1 million international tourists.

Thailand in the past has sewn up tourism around SE Asia. It had everything down to the art - despite the poor behaviour from fellow tourists, and scams (especially in transport). 

 

But now it's facing increasing competition from neighbouring countries. Vietnam for one, with it's historical culture, safety, beaches and massive investment is hurting Thailands tourism. Vietnam for one has very low number of indian tourists (which turns away quality tourists), and very low riff raff cheap tourists that are being attracted to Thailand due to soft policing and marijuana. The poor behaviour from cheap tourists (in large bought about by removing most visas) has let in a raft of criminals and poor behaved visitors staying a long time. These aren't digital nomads. This is turning away tourists from China who crave safety. 

 

Singapore, Malaysia are also being touch on crime and you so none of the crap you see in Thailand. 

 

Furthermore domestic tourism in China is really taking off. China itself is marketting itself as a tourist destination massively. 

21 hours ago, Lucky Bones said:

Shopping for or to sow oats?

I hate it when people have to explain my jokes.

25 minutes ago, mikebell said:

I hate it when people have to explain my jokes.

Ooooopppssss. Didn't realise it was a joke & I can't recall what you said anyway. Never mind...Enjoy Sunday.🙃🙃