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Will the economy beat Trump?

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14 minutes ago, Mike_Hunt said:

The US inflation was demand driven.  Europe was energy driven.   Come on man, you can't admit defeat. 

According to your formulation here, US inflation was 100%  and European was 100% energy related. Supply disruption in goods was a huge contributer everywhere for obvious reason. Well, everywhere except China which had deflation.

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Et tu, Fox.😄

 

 

 

 

On 11/20/2025 at 1:17 PM, MalcolmB said:

If you tax all imports of course prices will go up.

There is no way that they can’t.

 

Trump only really cares about his personal wealth and keeping out of jail.

 

The Americans fully deserve him, voting for him once they could be forgiven. 
But twice.

Som Nam naa.  Now suck it up, enjoy being poorer while he makes billions and puts you into trillions more debt. Hopefully it will be a good learning experience.

Fascinating. First time I've seen no thumbs down on a realistic assessment of what we're possibly going to see at the mid terms. 'It's the economy stupid' still rings true

3 hours ago, Mike_Hunt said:

1) Economists agree that Joe Biden's stimulus on top of the COVID stimulus. 

2) The USA and Europe had different types of inflation.   Europe had inflation via enrage prices.  The US inflation was demand driven. 

 

https://www.dw.com/en/beating-inflation-how-do-europe-and-the-us-compare/a-68976653#:~:text=While the European and US,American one%2C" said Papadia.

Screenshot 2025-11-21 at 6.57.44 AM.png

As mentioned before by another poster, the methodology is different, in particular as concerns housing. Basically, the US methodology includes fictive rents that are not actually paid, which gives housing an extravagant weight in the index.

 

Actually, as shown in the linked source, using the European methodology, US inflation is lower than measured by the US CPI.

 

The reason being the artificial high share of housing in the CPI index.

 

Quote:

The HICP measure used in Europe treats housing differently, as it measures the prices only of goods and services actually paid for, and not – as for owner-occupied homes – a service that follows from the ownership of the asset.  The US CPI treats the services of owner-occupied homes as if a rent were being paid to yourself, as the owner.  This leads to the not terribly intuitive situation where inflation in those implicit rents may be high – which is treated as if it were reducing your real income – but at the same time those rents are being paid to yourself – thus increasing your income.  That ends up as a wash.

https://aneconomicsense.org/2024/02/16/inflation-in-the-us-would-meet-the-fed-target-of-2-if-calculated-as-europe-does/

 

As concerns the specific impact of Biden's policy on inflation, I remember it was estimated at 2.7% over a total of 2 or 3 years by the Fed.

3 hours ago, BLMFem said:

Et tu, Fox.😄

 

 

 

 

It's even worse if you take into account the fact that the number of people available for work has decreased by 1.7 million.

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