Russia Panics As Trump’s Venezuela Raid Threatens Their Oil revenue

Fear is ripping through Russia’s political and security circles after Donald Trump’s dramatic military raid in Venezuela — and the shock arrest of Nicolás Maduro — triggered warnings that Moscow’s oil-dependent economy could now be pushed to the brink.

The Kremlin blasted the U.S. operation as “armed aggression,” but the reaction inside Russia has been far more raw — and far more panicked.

One prominent pro-Kremlin military blogger branded the raid “a total f*ing disaster,”** warning that if the U.S. seizes control of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, Russia’s ability to survive economically could collapse.

Another furious post raged that Russians would soon “starve to death” once Washington drives down global oil prices and wipes out Russia’s export revenue — the financial backbone funding both the state and the war machine.

Even billionaire oligarch Oleg Deripaska sounded the alarm, saying the U.S. now appears poised to control more than half of the world’s oil reserves, after extending its reach over Venezuela and Guyana.

He warned bluntly that Washington’s goal will be to lock oil prices below $50 a barrel, a price point that would devastate Russia’s already-strained economy.

“This means our sacred state-capitalism will find it difficult to leave everything as it is,” Deripaska warned darkly.

Others dropped the euphemisms altogether.

One enraged military blogger called the situation “checkmate for the entire economy,” saying Russia is now staring down the barrel of tax hikes, collapsing revenues and social chaos — while the U.S. cements control over the global oil system.

“The Americans have just extended their existence for several more centuries, while ours will end in a month,” he wrote — accusing Moscow’s leadership of sleepwalking into catastrophe.

Meanwhile, Maduro — once a crucial Russian ally — is now in U.S. custody facing drug-trafficking and weapons charges. Attorney General Pam Bondi vowed he will face “the full wrath of American justice.”

For the Kremlin, the symbolism could not be clearer: Washington just removed one of Moscow’s closest partners — and seized the oil fields Russia was counting on to survive sanctions and fund the state.

No wonder the panic is setting in.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia fears economic collapse if the U.S. controls Venezuelan oil
   Russian oligarchs and pro-war bloggers warn oil prices could be forced below $50 — crippling Russia’s sanctions-hit economy.

2. Pro-Kremlin voices turn furious and desperate
   Influential bloggers accuse Moscow’s leadership of total failure, warning Russians may “starve to death” as U.S. energy dominance expands.

3. Maduro’s fall is a strategic humiliation for the Kremlin
   The loss of a key ally — and his capture by the U.S. — sends shockwaves through Moscow, exposing just how fragile Russia’s economic lifeline really is.

SOURCE: EXPRESS

It's not that obvious.

To start with, it will take years to rebuild and upgrade Venezuela's oil production infrastructure, so it's not certain that it may affect Russia on very short-term.

Then there is the issue of the US domestic production. A lower oil price will make a significant part of US production unprofitable, in particular shale oil production. Bye bye any hope of fulfilling the "drill baby drill" promise.

https://www.gfmreview.com/commodities/would-50-oil-help-or-hurt-the-u-s-economy-the-trade-offs-explained

The big oil lobby supporting Trump may be OK with it, as their loss in the US may be more than compensated by new profits from Venezuela. However, States like Texas, North Dakota, and Oklahoma will be significantly affected.

Going to be fascinating to watch.

8 hours ago, candide said:

It's not that obvious.

To start with, it will take years to rebuild and upgrade Venezuela's oil production infrastructure, so it's not certain that it may affect Russia on very short-term.

Then there is the issue of the US domestic production. A lower oil price will make a significant part of US production unprofitable, in particular shale oil production. Bye bye any hope of fulfilling the "drill baby drill" promise.

https://www.gfmreview.com/commodities/would-50-oil-help-or-hurt-the-u-s-economy-the-trade-offs-explained

The big oil lobby supporting Trump may be OK with it, as their loss in the US may be more than compensated by new profits from Venezuela. However, States like Texas, North Dakota, and Oklahoma will be significantly affected.

The refineries in Texas are set up for the type of heavy crude Venezuela has because they are refining the Canadian heavy crude. They will take on the Venezuelan crude. The midwest refineries handling Canaian crude will be able to purchase the Canadian crude at firesale prices and gouge the Canadians who have to buy it back.

10 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

The refineries in Texas are set up for the type of heavy crude Venezuela has because they are refining the Canadian heavy crude. They will take on the Venezuelan crude. The midwest refineries handling Canaian crude will be able to purchase the Canadian crude at firesale prices and gouge the Canadians who have to buy it back.

How long before Venezuela can significantly increase crude oil production?

7 minutes ago, candide said:

How long before Venezuela can significantly increase crude oil production?

According to the Venezuelan engineers interviewed in Canada, the basic deferred maintenance because of the equipment and supplies embargo and the loss of expertise can be addressed in 6-12 months. The burden is not as significant as if they were refining. A portion of the reduced capacity was due to sanctions which limited exports and another portion was due to missing parts for critical repairs. More importantly, as soon as the oil starts being paid for at market rates, the country will start reaping the benefits. Maduro's regime was selling the oil at below market rates to Cuba in return for Cuban military and medical personnel. That's not to say, that much of the oil production facilities still needs an overhaul. However, alot of the production was reduced because of the sanctions, the withdrawal of oil companies and the loss of skilled labour who went to the oil industry in Canada and the USA and elsewhere.

However, the aforementioned is all pie in the sky until the current regime announces a change in its policies. Nothing has changed for now other than Maduro his scheming wife, and corrupt son being in the USA.

2 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

According to the Venezuelan engineers interviewed in Canada, the basic deferred maintenance because of the equipment and supplies embargo and the loss of expertise can be addressed in 6-12 months. The burden is not as significant as if they were refining. A portion of the reduced capacity was due to sanctions which limited exports and another portion was due to missing parts for critical repairs. More importantly, as soon as the oil starts being paid for at market rates, the country will start reaping the benefits. Maduro's regime was selling the oil at below market rates to Cuba in return for Cuban military and medical personnel. That's not to say, that much of the oil production facilities need an overhaul. However, alot of the production was reduced because of the sanctions, the withdrawal of oil companies and the loss of skilled labour who went to the oil industry in Canada and the USA and elsewhere. However, the aforementioned is all pie in the sky until the current regime announces a change in its policies. Until then, nothing has changed other than Maduro his scheming wife, and corrupt son being in the USA.

So no impact on prices on very short-term, which was my point (and Putin's most urgent concern).

No more cosy phone chats between Trump and Putin hopefully, good for Ukraine

I suspect that Putin and Xi will be thrilled that Trump has essentially redefined the world into three spheres of influence. I take South America, Vlad can have Europe and Xi takes Asia.

More popcorn please.

12 minutes ago, candide said:

So no impact on prices on very short-term, which was my point (and Putin's most urgent concern).

Yes and no. You expect immediate results. It will take time. As per the oil trading report;

Oil prices were flat in early Asian trading on Monday as markets digested the dramatic capture of Venezuela's President, Nicolás Maduro, by the U.S. military. Against the backdrop of an oversupplied crude market and steady OPEC+ policy, traders appeared content to await tangible physical developments in the market rather than bet on a short term supply shock or the longer-term return of Venezuelan crude to markets

We are only 1 day into this. We'll see by the end of the month. Trump wants results and he'll push for them.

5 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Yes and no. You expect immediate results. It will take time. As per the oil trading report;

Oil prices were flat in early Asian trading on Monday as markets digested the dramatic capture of Venezuela's President, Nicolás Maduro, by the U.S. military. Against the backdrop of an oversupplied crude market and steady OPEC+ policy, traders appeared content to await tangible physical developments in the market rather than bet on a short term supply shock or the longer-term return of Venezuelan crude to markets

We are only 1 day into this. We'll see by the end of the month. Trump wants results and he'll push for them.

I am not expecting anything. I was commenting on the OP's claim.

10 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

We are only 1 day into this. We'll see by the end of the month. Trump wants results and he'll push for them.

Of Venezuela's exports, Chevron ships roughly 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to US refiners, making up such a tiny share of US imports so as to be effectively zeroed. For that reason, León said, US consumers are likely to notice little to no difference at the gas pump, where crude oil pricing makes up roughly half of the per-barrel price of gas.

"I don't think it's a matter of a few months," León told Yahoo Finance. "I think we're talking about years, three to five years, before we see Venezuela exporting, let's say, 2 million barrels per day."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-maduros-capture-affects-oil-markets-will-depend-on-venezuelas-political-climate-173333866.html

Also, so far none of the big US oil companies has expressed interest in coughing up 58 billion USD to invest in Venezuela. Even Chevron, the only US oil company active in Venezuela, has said that they will operate by the rules.

16 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Of Venezuela's exports, Chevron ships roughly 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to US refiners, making up such a tiny share of US imports so as to be effectively zeroed. For that reason, León said, US consumers are likely to notice little to no difference at the gas pump, where crude oil pricing makes up roughly half of the per-barrel price of gas.

"I don't think it's a matter of a few months," León told Yahoo Finance. "I think we're talking about years, three to five years, before we see Venezuela exporting, let's say, 2 million barrels per day."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-maduros-capture-affects-oil-markets-will-depend-on-venezuelas-political-climate-173333866.html

Also, so far none of the big US oil companies has expressed interest in coughing up 58 billion USD to invest in Venezuela. Even Chevron, the only US oil company active in Venezuela, has said that they will operate by the rules.

That's nice.

However, it's not that simple.

Which country is dependent upon cheap Venezuelan oil? Answer: Cuba

Which country is the largest importer of Venezuelan crude? Answer: China

Venezuela's exports hit roughly 921,000 bpd in November 2025, according to Reuters, with China taking about 80% of the total (some 746,000 bpd)

Know that song Under Pressure? now consider that Iran is the largest oil supplier to China.

Disrupting Venezuelan oil exports in the short term will hurt Cuba and China.

Disrupting in the long term hurts Russia.

This was a strategic decision and I think it gets to the heart of the US national defence strategy of clipping the wings of China and Russia.

Next up is neutralizing Iran. No need to do anything to Cuba because it will have big problems without the venezuelan oil.

Whoever came up with the. strategy is smart. It's minimally invasive and has significant impact. The small minded will obsess over the US visit to caracas. The people who see the big picture will know that Iran and a regime change is next, and that this is all done to contain China and Russia.

20 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Of Venezuela's exports, Chevron ships roughly 120,000 to 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil to US refiners, making up such a tiny share of US imports so as to be effectively zeroed. For that reason, León said, US consumers are likely to notice little to no difference at the gas pump, where crude oil pricing makes up roughly half of the per-barrel price of gas.

"I don't think it's a matter of a few months," León told Yahoo Finance. "I think we're talking about years, three to five years, before we see Venezuela exporting, let's say, 2 million barrels per day."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-maduros-capture-affects-oil-markets-will-depend-on-venezuelas-political-climate-173333866.html

Also, so far none of the big US oil companies has expressed interest in coughing up 58 billion USD to invest in Venezuela. Even Chevron, the only US oil company active in Venezuela, has said that they will operate by the rules.

I can't for the life of me see why they don't want to play . I mean, a paltry $58 billion investment, plus the costs and hassle of operating in a hostile country, which will probably mean heaven knows how much to secure the infrastructure they are investing in, all for a possible return (not profit - return); just about when, with a likely political change in Washington America will pull out!

And if they do manage any worthwhile production half of the customers will be under US Sanctions and the rest probably won't want anything to do with Yankee imperialist oil!

2 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Whoever came up with the. strategy is smart. It's minimally invasive and has significant impact. The small minded will obsess over the US visit to caracas. The people who see the big picture will know that Iran and a regime change is next, and that this is all done to contain China and Russia.

And you think Russia, and especially China, are not gonna respond in some way or another?

1 minute ago, JAG said:

I mean, a paltry $58 million investment,

Billion

But yes you properly pointed out why they aren't interested.

3 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Billion

thankyou - edited

never mind...

51 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

"I don't think it's a matter of a few months," León told Yahoo Finance. "I think we're talking about years, three to five years, before we see Venezuela exporting, let's say, 2 million barrels per day."

Just picked part of your post as it is relevant to mine........as follows;

Trump’s big Venezuela oil push runs into $173b, decade-long reality check

 This from Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Programme at Rice University...

“Every major oil company in the world and some of the smaller ones will look closely at this because there are very few places on Earth where you could increase production so much,” said Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American Energy Programme at Rice University. “But first you need political stability and clarity.”

He said restoring peak oil production there would cost up to US$100 billion ($173.3b) and take roughly a decade.

And that is assuming there is enough political stability for companies to operate unencumbered during that entire period.

AND....

Any recovery in production would require substantial investment given the crumbling infrastructure resulting from years of mismanagement and underinvestment,” Giovanni Staunovo, of UBS, told AFP.

But investing today holds little appeal: oil prices are weighed down by a supply glut and fell in 2025 despite significant growth headwinds like Trump’s tariff war and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The US oil majors’ main responsibility is towards their shareholders, not the Government,” Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, told AFP.

“With that in mind, I doubt we will see a rush of interest to get back into Venezuela any time soon.

'The task in front of him is stupefying,' a US official said of the Secretary of State.

Be careful what you wish for..............LOL

You can basically safely ignore anything in the Daily Excess unless it's about Pincess Di or Maddie Mcann.

2 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

According to the Venezuelan engineers interviewed in Canada, the basic deferred maintenance because of the equipment and supplies embargo and the loss of expertise can be addressed in 6-12 months. The burden is not as significant as if they were refining. A portion of the reduced capacity was due to sanctions which limited exports and another portion was due to missing parts for critical repairs. More importantly, as soon as the oil starts being paid for at market rates, the country will start reaping the benefits. Maduro's regime was selling the oil at below market rates to Cuba in return for Cuban military and medical personnel. That's not to say, that much of the oil production facilities still needs an overhaul. However, alot of the production was reduced because of the sanctions, the withdrawal of oil companies and the loss of skilled labour who went to the oil industry in Canada and the USA and elsewhere.

However, the aforementioned is all pie in the sky until the current regime announces a change in its policies. Nothing has changed for now other than Maduro his scheming wife, and corrupt son being in the USA.

6-12 months.

Someone is avin a laarf.

It’ll take US O&G Contractors that long to determine who they need to bribe to get the contracts.

7 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

6-12 months.

Someone is avin a laarf.

It’ll take US O&G Contractors that long to determine who they need to bribe to get the contracts.

@Patong2021 is def having a laugh as it's just not the actual loss of expertise that is the problem, but the actual loss of maintenance on the wells, pipelines, valves and pumps amongst other things and trying to repair those and bring the wells up to stream capacity can be a nightmare.

No quick fixes on these I'm afraid.

Russian air defences are **** they just collapsed in caracas

Putin dreamt and failed to create a dollar-free world and establish Russia as an “energy superpower.” He allowed corruption to metastasize through the state’s fabric, undermining its security capabilities. With its mass emigration, skyrocketing divorce rate, and low fertility, Russia, more than the West, demonstrates an immense collapse of family and social values.

As time goes on, Russia appears to be increasing more desperate. They do not seem to enjoy being the world's greatest pariah. They are, and deservedly so. Having a despot dictator for a leader comes at a high cost. 

There is no question that Russian history, culture and art is incredibly deep and incredibly rich, this is the land that has produced the Bolshoi and the Kirov, Nobokov, Stravinsky, Malevich, Popova, Kandinski, etc.

But most of that is ancient history, these days they're producing munitions, they're creating warfare, they are sponsoring corruption, they're creating oligarchs out of thin air from state enterprises, they have a leader who's one of the richest men in the world from extortion and pure corruption, who also happens to be a serial killer, and they just do not seem to be contributing much in the way of positivity to the planet as a whole. If I'm wrong, if you are aware of some wonderful things that the Russian nation is doing for the planet, please let me know. I would love to hear about that. Besides the space program 65 years ago.

Smart move by Trump.

2 birds, one stone.

There is always sabotage to get the oil price up.

Troll post removed, if you don't like the copy then don't read it, but don't leave your derogatory comments around for others to read

@Summerinsiam

3 hours ago, lou norman said:

I suspect that Putin and Xi will be thrilled that Trump has essentially redefined the world into three spheres of influence. I take South America, Vlad can have Europe and Xi takes Asia.

More popcorn please.

Actually, on short term, Putin will benefit from it:

• Russia may export more oil to China to replace Venezuelian oil

• Domestically, it justifies his 'NATO threat to Russia' argument,

• Internationally, it may also contribute to justify his "special operation" in Ukraine to dislodge an "illegitimate' regime (his words, not mine).

I suspect nobody in the Trump administration is much of a long-range planner (except the Heritage Foundation). But I wonder if impacting Russia was somebody's plan all along.

55 minutes ago, xylophone said:

@Patong2021 is def having a laugh as it's just not the actual loss of expertise that is the problem, but the actual loss of maintenance on the wells, pipelines, valves and pumps amongst other things and trying to repair those and bring the wells up to stream capacity can be a nightmare.

No quick fixes on these I'm afraid.

I was relying on the opinions of the engineers who worked on those oil wells, pipelines and storage facilities. You are ignoring the fact that production was cut because of the sanctions. Venezuela's crude storage was already at capacity. Remove the sanctions and allow the free flow of tankers and the existing production capacity not influenced by poor infrastructure will return. Remove the embargo on spare parts and repairs can be made that will address reductions in activity because of repeated breakdowns and reduced activity to prevent breakdowns. There is capacity potential in the existing network that can be returned by doing proper repairs and having enough trained and qualified oil production workers. Are you even aware that the oil sector lost some of its best workers? Having poor quality workers impacts productivity because they are not carrying out repairs and maintenance properly.

I am not claiming that the oil production will immediately return to what it was in the 1970's. It can however quickly return to what it was two years ago. This is what the oil experts are saying too. Goldman Sachs says that in the short term, Venezuela's oil production outlook this year will depend on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. Removal of the sanctions will have a positive impact.

JPMorgan analysts believe that with a political transition, Venezuela could raise oil production to 1.3-1.4 million bpd within two years and potentially reach 2.5 million bpd over the next decade, up from about 800,000 bpd currently.

To argue otherwise is to say that the sanctions do not impact oil production. The increase in capacity would be gradual, and it is reasonable to expect a 25%+ increase within the next 6-12 months, just through the lifting of sanctions.