Dollar Going To ######, What Should I Do?

[LivinLOS]

Stop moaning - it was only 25 when I came to this country. Ungrateful b@stds.

Of course back then you could buy a 3 bedroom bungalow or a oceanside condo in pattaya for about 400,000 baht!

Excellent pont. when the baht wa 25 the old timers I have met have told me that with 150 Baht you could get lunch. a few beers and a lady. what will a 150 baht do for you today. It's never the numbers it's buying power that matters. My buying power is significanlty less then four years ago.

Maybe 50 years ago. I think it's ridiculous that someone getting a state pension of 40,000 baht and living in Isarn can complain about the dollar going down a baht or two. I know a guy with $150,000 in the bank and a pension of 95,000 baht a month who is scared to move here as he doesn't think he has enough money. A single guy too!

Theres no way in the world I would move here with only those kind of assets.. No earning potential worth speaking about..

[LoveDaBlues]

Stop moaning - it was only 25 when I came to this country. Ungrateful b@stds.

Of course back then you could buy a 3 bedroom bungalow or a oceanside condo in pattaya for about 400,000 baht!

Excellent pont. when the baht wa 25 the old timers I have met have told me that with 150 Baht you could get lunch. a few beers and a lady. what will a 150 baht do for you today. It's never the numbers it's buying power that matters. My buying power is significanlty less then four years ago.

Maybe 50 years ago. I think it's ridiculous that someone getting a state pension of 40,000 baht and living in Isarn can complain about the dollar going down a baht or two. I know a guy with $150,000 in the bank and a pension of 95,000 baht a month who is scared to move here as he doesn't think he has enough money. A single guy too!

Theres no way in the world I would move here with only those kind of assets.. No earning potential worth speaking about..

If his pension is for life and adjustable for inflation I think he would be fine. Certainly the pension is more important than the $150K. Depending on his lifestyle of course. Here in Udon he would be considered fairly wealthy!

Before living here I would never have considered trying to live here on such an amount. After being here full time for nearly 2 years I've changed my outlook and would go for it.

[JimsKnight]

Stop moaning - it was only 25 when I came to this country. Ungrateful b@stds.

Of course back then you could buy a 3 bedroom bungalow or a oceanside condo in pattaya for about 400,000 baht!

Excellent pont. when the baht wa 25 the old timers I have met have told me that with 150 Baht you could get lunch. a few beers and a lady. what will a 150 baht do for you today. It's never the numbers it's buying power that matters. My buying power is significanlty less then four years ago.

Maybe 50 years ago. I think it's ridiculous that someone getting a state pension of 40,000 baht and living in Isarn can complain about the dollar going down a baht or two. I know a guy with $150,000 in the bank and a pension of 95,000 baht a month who is scared to move here as he doesn't think he has enough money. A single guy too!

Theres no way in the world I would move here with only those kind of assets.. No earning potential worth speaking about..

If his pension is for life and adjustable for inflation I think he would be fine. Certainly the pension is more important than the $150K. Depending on his lifestyle of course. Here in Udon he would be considered fairly wealthy!

Before living here I would never have considered trying to live here on such an amount. After being here full time for nearly 2 years I've changed my outlook and would go for it.

Agreed, after you've got the PC, bike and car the monthly living costs in LOS (outside of BKK) drop radically. With a weekly 'foray' on the pull for women will see a typical budget of 30 - 50 k baht.

[backflip]

"The final war for the planet's resources has already started. You name the commodity and China's buying it and consuming it in HUGE quantities. Last year they consumed nearly half of the world's cement, twice the world's consumption of copper..."

China consumed TWICE the world's production of copper - a whole 200% of it? I think you've overstated the facts...

[LoveDaBlues]

"The final war for the planet's resources has already started. You name the commodity and China's buying it and consuming it in HUGE quantities. Last year they consumed nearly half of the world's cement, twice the world's consumption of copper..."

China consumed TWICE the world's production of copper - a whole 200% of it? I think you've overstated the facts...

You've changed what he wrote. What he's saying is that China consumed 66.66% and the rest of the world consumed 33.33% of the copper that was consumed.

[sonicdragon]

The only reason your getting 35 to a dollar is the false onshore rate created by BoT restrictions.. Real rate is around 32..

Excuse me, but the capital controls cause the offshore rate to be 32, not the onshore rate to be 35. There is almost no volume or liquidity in the offshore market, whereas the onshore market has a lot of depth. Remove the capital controls and the two would converge at around. 35 in a heartbeat. The existing controls imply that the offshore rate should be 10% lower than the onshore rate.

[Naam]

The only reason your getting 35 to a dollar is the false onshore rate created by BoT restrictions.. Real rate is around 32..

Excuse me, but the capital controls cause the offshore rate to be 32, not the onshore rate to be 35. There is almost no volume or liquidity in the offshore market, whereas the onshore market has a lot of depth. Remove the capital controls and the two would converge at around. 35 in a heartbeat. The existing controls imply that the offshore rate should be 10% lower than the onshore rate.

Dragon,

trying to explain a simple fact -as you just did correctly- seems like banging your head against the wall (as your avatar shows). i bet it won't take long till the misinterpretation "false onshore rate created by BoT restrictions" surfaces again.

[spacebass]

Americans seem to believe that their reference standards prevail in the world at at large, and nothing can cause their downfall.

Many events in recent history have illustrated that the U.S. mindset does not really understand the breadth of concepts in the real world as the U.S. goes from one self created disaster to the next, all justified with a huge fabric of dishonesty, obviously wholly believed by the U.S. general public as the continuous 24 hr a day propaganda dispensed by Skynews and the like ensures.

It is true that for many years the U.S. has been the most important economy in the world, but it seems that the U.S. is having difficulty in accepting that China will soon overtake it in importance, along with this process will come the ability to destroy the U.S.$s standing in the world, without the very sound reasons it is already slipping, and without the ability of say Iran to damage it overnight by just trading it's oil in Euros instead of U.S. $, and what do the Saudis think of the huge losses in real monetary terms they have sufferred from pricing their oil in U.S.$ in recent months? Do they have a plan?

The game is nearly up U.S.A. the TV pictures shown of your President walking round his garden holding the hand of an elderly Saudi King just about sums up the motives that have driven the U.S. nation in recent years.

[sonicdragon]

The only reason your getting 35 to a dollar is the false onshore rate created by BoT restrictions.. Real rate is around 32..

Excuse me, but the capital controls cause the offshore rate to be 32, not the onshore rate to be 35. There is almost no volume or liquidity in the offshore market, whereas the onshore market has a lot of depth. Remove the capital controls and the two would converge at around. 35 in a heartbeat. The existing controls imply that the offshore rate should be 10% lower than the onshore rate.

Dragon,

trying to explain a simple fact -as you just did correctly- seems like banging your head against the wall (as your avatar shows). i bet it won't take long till the misinterpretation "false onshore rate created by BoT restrictions" surfaces again.

Dr,

Yes, my avatar reflects my state of mind at these times !

[MartinBKK]

Harmonica has given the best advice i've read on this thread.

Now is the time to accumulate dollars. The market has never been so anti-dollar and this opportunity will not come around again for many years. When the EURO was introduced there was a lot of negativity regarding that and many people said it was doomed to fail. Whats happened to the Euro? It is now at record high levels against all major currencies and many people consider it the best currency to hold.

Time changes things, sentiments change. Time has the power to heal even the deepest wounds. There is very much an anti american feeling right now. There was very much an anti German feeling after the two world wars and look what happened there. Germany is now one of the strongest and influential members of the EU (and the key to the introduction of the EURO).

It won't be long until George Bush leaves office, the unpopular Iraq war will also come to an end. The anti- american feeling will eventually subside as will the problems regarding their huge current account defecit which is now impacting their currency significantly. Succesful investors are those that are buying when everyone else is selling. History has shown us this, i could give you at least 20 examples right off the top of my head. Take the financial crisis here in 1997 as one.

Im buying dollars right now and doing so with confidence.

[jumnien]

Agree with MartinBKK. Looks like a great time to buy dollars. Why do most people always want to buy high sell low?

[whopper]

this is what I did in 2004, I got a saftey box at a bank and then went to a gold shop. No taxes too. good luck

[palm]

Harmonica has given the best advice i've read on this thread.

Is this the same guy who said the Thai Baht exchange would now be at 50 baht to the dollar.

And the same guy who claimed to live in a 5,000 baht rented apartment and eat out of cans?

[SamuiJens]

Harmonica has given the best advice i've read on this thread.

Now is the time to accumulate dollars. The market has never been so anti-dollar and this opportunity will not come around again for many years. When the EURO was introduced there was a lot of negativity regarding that and many people said it was doomed to fail. Whats happened to the Euro? It is now at record high levels against all major currencies and many people consider it the best currency to hold.

Time changes things, sentiments change. Time has the power to heal even the deepest wounds. There is very much an anti american feeling right now. There was very much an anti German feeling after the two world wars and look what happened there. Germany is now one of the strongest and influential members of the EU (and the key to the introduction of the EURO).

It won't be long until George Bush leaves office, the unpopular Iraq war will also come to an end. The anti- american feeling will eventually subside as will the problems regarding their huge current account defecit which is now impacting their currency significantly. Succesful investors are those that are buying when everyone else is selling. History has shown us this, i could give you at least 20 examples right off the top of my head. Take the financial crisis here in 1997 as one.

Im buying dollars right now and doing so with confidence.

WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND.

[LoveDaBlues]

It won't be long until George Bush leaves office, the unpopular Iraq war will also come to an end. The anti- american feeling will eventually subside as will the problems regarding their huge current account defecit which is now impacting their currency significantly. Succesful investors are those that are buying when everyone else is selling. History has shown us this, i could give you at least 20 examples right off the top of my head. Take the financial crisis here in 1997 as one.

Im buying dollars right now and doing so with confidence.

****************

Getting Bushy out of office is paramount.

If you have Jim Brown in the backfield you hand him the ball until the other team PROVES they can stop him.

Until the US falls big time I'll stay in US currency and land. Until then EVERYTHING is just speculation.

[Jai Dee]

Kasikorn Research Center reports Baht will stay at 34.60 – 34.90 baht to US dollar this week

The Kasikorn Research Center estimates that the baht currency will stay around 34.60 – 34.90 baht to US dollar this week while trading in the Stocks Exchange of Thailand (SET) is expected to be slightly active.

The Kasikorn Research Center reports that factors attributed to the baht’s value this week (April 30th to May 4th) are trends of other currencies in the Asian region and reports of important economic information by the US government.

As for SET trading, the center predicts that SET index this week will be subdued. Factors attributed to investor confidence include the March’s announcement of important economic figures by the Bank of Thailand, the consumer index of April reported by the Ministry of Commerce, regulatory filings of the first quarter of 2007 by registered companies, as well as political situations.

In addition, there are two outside factors affected the investor confidence, which are US’s reports of important economic figures and global oil prices. Expected support levels in SET this week will be 688 and 665 points and resistance levels 696 and 710 points.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 30 April 2007

[shochu]

Americans seem to believe that their reference standards prevail in the world at at large, and nothing can cause their downfall.

Many events in recent history have illustrated that the U.S. mindset does not really understand the breadth of concepts in the real world as the U.S. goes from one self created disaster to the next, all justified with a huge fabric of dishonesty, obviously wholly believed by the U.S. general public as the continuous 24 hr a day propaganda dispensed by Skynews and the like ensures.

It is true that for many years the U.S. has been the most important economy in the world, but it seems that the U.S. is having difficulty in accepting that China will soon overtake it in importance, along with this process will come the ability to destroy the U.S.$s standing in the world, without the very sound reasons it is already slipping, and without the ability of say Iran to damage it overnight by just trading it's oil in Euros instead of U.S. $, and what do the Saudis think of the huge losses in real monetary terms they have sufferred from pricing their oil in U.S.$ in recent months? Do they have a plan?

The game is nearly up U.S.A. the TV pictures shown of your President walking round his garden holding the hand of an elderly Saudi King just about sums up the motives that have driven the U.S. nation in recent years.

Excellent.

Every major country has debased their currency (fiat) until they become toilet paper - only a matter of time. Think early 1900's - argentina - what a country - rich, beautiful, but, but then ....and France, and Rome, ...

The game ended when the Federal Reserve was created as a private company loaning money for interest to the U.S. - imagine that the fed owned by private banks - how many of you knew that? A major stake pounded in with bretton woods and soon....

There are too many things that could tip it - but it's a real fine balancing act because nobody wants to lose their investments in the dollar - but everyone knows it has to go down. Who wants to be remembered for the fall?

[palm]

It was said here: "Harmonica has given the best advice i've read on this thread."

Harmonica stated in early 2005 (in this thread):

So, to reiterate my position -- we have now established that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, the world's #2 and #1 richest men are LEADING the HERD of wildebeast BEARISH the Dollar and selling, selling, selling!!!!! On the flip side, there is me, little Harmonica, with not even a porcelain pot to piss in wink.gif and I'm saying BUY, BUY, BUY the US Dollar bigtime and put it under the mattress and retire to Thailand! smile.gif

Another plain example of why strategic financial investment decisions are best not done on the advice of tuktuk drivers, noodle sellers, and beggars.

[Beardog]

It won't be long until George Bush leaves office

HAPPY HAPPY JOY JOY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[solo siam]

It was said here: "Harmonica has given the best advice i've read on this thread."

Harmonica stated in early 2005 (in this thread):

So, to reiterate my position -- we have now established that Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, the world's #2 and #1 richest men are LEADING the HERD of wildebeast BEARISH the Dollar and selling, selling, selling!!!!! On the flip side, there is me, little Harmonica, with not even a porcelain pot to piss in wink.gif and I'm saying BUY, BUY, BUY the US Dollar bigtime and put it under the mattress and retire to Thailand! smile.gif

Another plain example of why strategic financial investment decisions are best not done on the advice of tuktuk drivers, noodle sellers, and beggars.

Ahhh...

So he's trying to talk the dollar up so that he can offload some of his.

[ray23]

Well lets see George senior didn't understand economics and niether does George Jr. is that news?

Niether one of them are going to be the President of the United states again.

Did I miss something or did we start making some progress in the Clinton years?

I wouldn't count on one more year of this completly destroying the States.

Yes China is a major player, why thier products are cheap. But everything has growing pains, they finished thiers yet.? I think not and apparently niether do they. They are worried about an over valued stock market, thier words not mine. They are trying to figure how to put the brakes on. Not easy when for the first time thier citizens can buy buy. Evidenced by some recent changes. Maybe it will work maybe it won't.

How cheap will those products be if thier currency was really traded at it's true value.

Lots of things to still be seen over the next few years.

[Harmonica]

Fellas,

As softly as ever, with just a shhhh, may I humbly, oh, ever so gently, coax you, guide you and urge you to

start ACCUMULATING Dollars (USD).

Do it "saaalowwleee" every week, a "leeetle beet" at a time.

Do this while every mothers' son is negative the Dollar.

Sentiment plays a huge role in overall market success and I believe we are at a dramatic, historical turning point. A bottom is being formed currently. No. no, not that kind of bottom!

There is not ONE dude who's +ve the Dollar--that's why I'm hiding and am only just whispering to you. I've taken too many bullets in the past and I'm a wee bit gunshy. The shooters later came back to cuddle & fondle me, but I'm not into that sort of thing.

Four years in Thailand and I'm getting very lonely making decent money in the markets. No office required, no overhead, just Tech. analysis, a computer, 4 Brokerage accounts, and guts to go against the HERD. The CNBC (and other)experts will ruin you! I've already told them to "piss off", the lying, BS mothers.

It hurts & torments me to see that so many wildebeast are just going to jump into the river full of hungry crocs with narry a thought that it is a classic bear-trap.

It is dangerous to be different and go against the multitude, the crowd, for in the end it is only a teeeeeny-weeeeny %age of cats that profit. These profits come from the herd's losses.

Give it some thought my friends. Just think about it, thats all I ask.

God bless you all for you've opened a door to a vista (this topic) I just plain love and by all measures, it loves me.

Adios

Harmonica

-------------------------------------------------

No doubt this will irritate the grazers some more but who gives a ..... ?

A lion's got to be responsible for his own orgasm, hunts and putting food on the table and as is often the case when he's successful he's got to pat himself on the back for no wildebeast will ever encourage him on - not even when he takes on the greatest INDEX in the world singlehandedly and that too in his youth as a trader, barely out of the box, but full of juice ......

yeah baby

back in 2003, 2004 everybody hated the US Dollar. Every currency was mocking him and there he was, alone in a dungeon, a shadow of his former self. It was only Harmonica (and perhaps a few others) who befriended him and reminded him that he was still the world's reserve currency. I saw his eyes sparkle and that force from deep within rise ever so slowly, but it had definitely started.

That was when I called the bottom on December 23rd, 2004.

My friend came out of the dungeon on December 30th and didn't look back. He took me with him. Evidence in this thread.

Note: I was expelled from thaivisa before the rally ended so could not post anymore. The Dollar fell some more after the Nov 2005 top all the way into the 2008 bottom - and I caught that one too. Sorry, no evidence for that - I was not here. But I did make some mistakes in calling the bottom 3 or 4 times in 2007, but as a trader they were quickly corrected, nevertheless they were wrong calls. So that's the perspective.

Greetings to Yangpuss.

[Jai Dee]

US dollar rises to new multi-day high of 35.62 against Thai baht

Source: Nasdaq - 25 March 2009

[Jai Dee]

Thailand Currency Hits 6-Day Low Against US Dollar

The Thailand currency traded weak against the US currency during Wednesday's early deals. At about 11:20 pm ET, the Thailand currency hit a 6-day low of 35.62, compared to 35.40 hit late Tuesday in New York. If the Thailand currency drops further, 35.87 is seen as the next likely target level.

Monday, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij warned that Thailand's economy could contract 3% this year. The minister said the economy may shrink 8%-9% this year if the government does nothing and the number of unemployed may increase to 2 million.

Korn said the situation has changed and the Thai economy is not in good shape. In 2008, the economy grew 2.6%, down from 4.9% recorded in 2007. The country's state planning agency forecast 2009 economic growth to be in a range of 0% to minus 1%.

Source: RTTNews - 25 March 2009

[hhgz]

JaiDee,

Thanks for the laughs! RTTnews has the same lack of understanding that many farangs do - they don't know if the baht is high or low, strong or weak.

[VegasVic]

JaiDee,

Thanks for the laughs! RTTnews has the same lack of understanding that many farangs do - they don't know if the baht is high or low, strong or weak.

The millions of thais that have lost or will be losing their jobs over the coming year know very well that the thai baht is way too strong