UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[Jonesy99]

Doesn't help the poor buggers on UK pensions though does it!

(No i'm not there yet, still a few decades to go!)

[roamer]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

The Conservative lead is slipping faster than Sterling, no polls since yesterdays announcement of Lords Ashcroft's non-dom tax status, that's going to hit them hard. They are not trusted by the electorate on health or education. Their economic plans, or preference for large cuts in govt spending immediately if they are elected has been called in to question across the board. In any event turkeys don't vote for Christmas and a lot of people might decide that their jobs are safer under Labour.

Mind you I also fail to predict the correct numbers in the Lottery each week...

[HardenedSoul]

Doesn't help the poor buggers on UK pensions though does it!

(No i'm not there yet, still a few decades to go!)

Hence the phrase "lots of cash".

[britmaveric]

Unfortunately those that depend on a certain level for the baht vs their home currency perhaps might be better off back home.

[chiang mai]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

The Conservative lead is slipping faster than Sterling, no polls since yesterdays announcement of Lords Ashcroft's non-dom tax status, that's going to hit them hard. They are not trusted by the electorate on health or education. Their economic plans, or preference for large cuts in govt spending immediately if they are elected has been called in to question across the board. In any event turkeys don't vote for Christmas and a lot of people might decide that their jobs are safer under Labour.

Mind you I also fail to predict the correct numbers in the Lottery each week...

A real possibility except you leave out that it also means four more years of business as usual in the UK (as in same same), if that happens then the country is best used as a land fill or toxic waste disposal site because it wont be a fit place to live.

[Grey11]

will the baht level stop tiger woods doing his re-hab in the buffallo bar

Tiger is American not British

Now we know.

[Grey11]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

The Conservative lead is slipping faster than Sterling, no polls since yesterdays announcement of Lords Ashcroft's non-dom tax status, that's going to hit them hard. They are not trusted by the electorate on health or education. Their economic plans, or preference for large cuts in govt spending immediately if they are elected has been called in to question across the board. In any event turkeys don't vote for Christmas and a lot of people might decide that their jobs are safer under Labour.

Mind you I also fail to predict the correct numbers in the Lottery each week...

Dukes, Earls, Sirs, Lords? How about the Duke of Earl?!

[gemini81]

thats not too low. plus it appears to be temporary, so what are you all moaning about? c'mon most currencies aren't even near 47 or 48 to the baht. moaners go ahead and pack up and ship out.

[roamer]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

The Conservative lead is slipping faster than Sterling, no polls since yesterdays announcement of Lords Ashcroft's non-dom tax status, that's going to hit them hard. They are not trusted by the electorate on health or education. Their economic plans, or preference for large cuts in govt spending immediately if they are elected has been called in to question across the board. In any event turkeys don't vote for Christmas and a lot of people might decide that their jobs are safer under Labour.

Mind you I also fail to predict the correct numbers in the Lottery each week...

A real possibility except you leave out that it also means four more years of business as usual in the UK (as in same same), if that happens then the country is best used as a land fill or toxic waste disposal site because it wont be a fit place to live.

Judging by the amount of rubbish that has arrived on these shores it is already being used as a landfill. Can't anyone think up a more novel use for the UK ?

[Jonesy99]

I remember back in the 80's when the USA referred to the UK as the biggest aircraft carrier in it's fleet.

Seriously though, maybe Australia could use it to house their criminals?...oh wait

[mommysboy]

From yesterdays FT Alphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/01...rical-claptrap/

'Talk of a GBP crisis seems like hysterical claptrap'

David Bloom, Global Head of FX Research for HSBC, is none-too-impressed with suggestions the Great British Currency is more krona than sterling.

Here's his short but scathing note on the matter:

GBP crisis: are you living in cloud cuckoo land?

There is no doubt the UK data is weakening a little more than expected and more than expected compared to the eurozone and the US data. However, the talk of a GBP crisis seems like hysterical clap trap.

Currencies are a relative concept. So who is the UK and GBP going to have a crisis against – the euro? The analysts that are putting the GBP crisis view are the very same analysts who seem to be simultaneously predicting the break up of the euro and a GBP crisis whilst only last year telling us the USD was finished and losing its reserve currency status.

I fail to see who this golden child is that GBP will have this crisis against. I get very worried when I find that I am the voice of reason. Ok let's indulge in fear and assume a hung parliament – well some economists argued in a recent tit for tat letter that to tighten fiscal policy too soon would be a disaster for the UK economy. Well a hung parliament removes that risk. Of course if the UK goes into a double dipper whilst the whole world recovers, then GBP would fall and the export sector would boom. Is that a crisis or the normal transmission mechanism in action?

Interesting that he chose the EURO in his example and not the US Dollar since this it's against USD that the fall is currently taking place, seems more like a political statement to me than anything else, dunno.

But the point is there CM and the analyst is saying what I've been saying albeit in a much more eloquent way. And here you go doing your 'detraction/distraction' technique! Fair comment?

[chiang mai]

From yesterdays FT Alphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/03/01...rical-claptrap/

'Talk of a GBP crisis seems like hysterical claptrap'

David Bloom, Global Head of FX Research for HSBC, is none-too-impressed with suggestions the Great British Currency is more krona than sterling.

Here's his short but scathing note on the matter:

GBP crisis: are you living in cloud cuckoo land?

There is no doubt the UK data is weakening a little more than expected and more than expected compared to the eurozone and the US data. However, the talk of a GBP crisis seems like hysterical clap trap.

Currencies are a relative concept. So who is the UK and GBP going to have a crisis against – the euro? The analysts that are putting the GBP crisis view are the very same analysts who seem to be simultaneously predicting the break up of the euro and a GBP crisis whilst only last year telling us the USD was finished and losing its reserve currency status.

I fail to see who this golden child is that GBP will have this crisis against. I get very worried when I find that I am the voice of reason. Ok let's indulge in fear and assume a hung parliament – well some economists argued in a recent tit for tat letter that to tighten fiscal policy too soon would be a disaster for the UK economy. Well a hung parliament removes that risk. Of course if the UK goes into a double dipper whilst the whole world recovers, then GBP would fall and the export sector would boom. Is that a crisis or the normal transmission mechanism in action?

Interesting that he chose the EURO in his example and not the US Dollar since this it's against USD that the fall is currently taking place, seems more like a political statement to me than anything else, dunno.

But the point is there CM and the analyst is saying what I've been saying albeit in a much more eloquent way. And here you go doing your 'detraction/distraction' technique! Fair comment?

Honestly I'm unsure. On the one hand, the Head of FX at HSBC has a job to do and often that involves saying things that will either prop up or knock the legs from under a currency based on what's going on their FX dept at the time, sometimes it's hard to tell which one he's trying to do based on the message alone. Another angle on this is that the likes of said Head are often called upon to deliver such messages even though they don't match the reality, trust me on this point, I've been there. The point here is that just because he's got the job that he does for the company that he works for, doesn't really mean that much at all. I reckon that for every head of bank X that says what this guy is saying, I'm pretty sure I could point out similar who are saying the opposite, probably best to go with other more meaningful factors and the numbers would be a start.

[harry1]

think you guys are getting the idea now,,,the £ is kept low to keep the money in UK...will go down to about 42-45bt for most of yr,,,nothing against thai,,its more about the immigrant working in uk sending there good old uk pound home,,,now close to worthless against the euro,,goverment doing a good job if(use forum quote)gets rid of all the beggers from UK,,

[whichschool]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

BUt the Liberals will go with the Tories it already been said.

Whoever votes for Labour is an idiot i wish anyone that does the life of misery theyre voting for.

[PhilHarries]

How about this for a prediction ?

There will not be a hung parliament and Labour will stay in power.

Not so crazy as it sounds, when hung parliaments look a distinct possibility the Liberal vote can get squeezed.

The Conservative lead is slipping faster than Sterling, no polls since yesterdays announcement of Lords Ashcroft's non-dom tax status, that's going to hit them hard. They are not trusted by the electorate on health or education. Their economic plans, or preference for large cuts in govt spending immediately if they are elected has been called in to question across the board. In any event turkeys don't vote for Christmas and a lot of people might decide that their jobs are safer under Labour.

Mind you I also fail to predict the correct numbers in the Lottery each week...

There's talk that the Tories don't want to win the next election. They don't want to be in the chair when the real sh1t hits the fan economically.

But there are those that say a weak pound will be good for the recovery making home goods and holidays better value against foriegn options.

btw I'm paid in Dollars and am ready to part with a thousand or two to anybody who can deliver an RPG and launcher in the next hour. One of the neighbours is having a karaoke party and my anger management counsellor recommends not to bottle it up but to let rip.

[chiang mai]

gets rid of all the beggers from UK,,

But who will that leave, eighteen million OAP's and a handful of under twelves, the place would be ripe for invasion by the French, again.

[Chaimai]

I reckon that for every head of bank X that says what this guy is saying, I'm pretty sure I could point out similar who are saying the opposite,

Isn't this what happens all the time. The Chief Economist of HSBC, Dennis Turner, once said "ask 10 economists their opinion and you will get 10 different opinions".

For someone, in such an elevated position as Bloom, to use such unequivocal language it is certainly not political or business posturing - it seems a genuine view.

Any dummy can state that a currency (GBP) is going down - I hope their voices are equally strong should it rise.

[chiang mai]

Indeed, but perhaps the simplest way to understand his words is to ask yourself, what would you expect the Head of FX at the UK's largest bank to say when asked to comment on the strength of the banks home currency, this is the same bank by the way where the British Chairman just left to live in Hong Kong.

[roamer]

gets rid of all the beggers from UK,,

But who will that leave, eighteen million OAP's and a handful of under twelves, the place would be ripe for invasion by the French, again.

Yes Please

Edited March 2, 2010 by roamer

[w11guy]

Anyone who doesn't think that Sterling is collapsing clearly has no understanding of whats happening. This is not just a short term blip - this is the foreseeable future. There is nothing in the way of Sterling's fall. It will keep on falling because there is nothing that can arrest the fall. Eventually (maybe next year) when GBP/USD is down to 1.20 and the Thai baht is sub 30 Sterling will look cheap and traders will start to buy Sterling instead of selling it.

The return to current levels (50 baht to the pound) could take years, possibly decades. 70 baht to the pound is already a dim and distant memory. In 12 months time its likely that anyone wanting to retire in Thailand (800,000 in a Thai bank) will need about £25,000.

I hope I'm wrong but I fear the worst.

Sounds like you are believing the hype on the news and in the papers. Look back over history and you will see that there is no reason whatsoever for the pound to take decades to recover. Last year people were prdicting $1.20, but pound rallied to $1.70.

It is also incorrect to say that there is nothing that can arrest the fall. If it was that easy we'd all be currency traders. Would you bet your house on it? Of course there is something to arrest the fall. For one, there is the Tories winning the next election. A poll in the next few days showing the Tories with a bigger lead and the pound is bound to bounce. This is mostly uncertainty ahead of an election. Pound has already dropped quite a lot so why should it continue to fall? I'm not saying it won't, but I am saying it's not obvious. Once something has fallen like this, most people just project the fall a bit further as if it is inevitable.

The $US and € could just as easily collapse, which wouldn't make the pound seem too bad.

No-one knows is the answer. It's not obvious at all. Don't beleive the press, they almost always get it wrong.

[Slaps]

gets rid of all the beggers from UK,,

But who will that leave, eighteen million OAP's and a handful of under twelves, the place would be ripe for invasion by the French, again.

Yes Please

She's not nice enough to accept an invasion by the French that's for sure

[w11guy]

G_D Bless America....and The Tiger.

Looks like PM Blair didn't impress many people he wanted to go on the dole with. Can you imagine what living in England must be like? It's no better in the USA. The government must be supporting 60% of the people.

"I'm staying.

There's nowhere else I can see that offers similar quality of life as Thailand, let alone any place better.

Yes, problems on the horizon -- not to be discussed here -- but there are problems everywhere.

I've assessed the risks and will take my chances in Thailand.?

He has a very good point.

This is complete nonsense. I live in England and while we have a recession things aren't nearly as bad as the news would have you believe. I don't know anyone personally who has lost their jobs. Most people I know have mortgages and interest rates have dropped substantially. I know lots whose mortgages have dropped from £1200 to £700/month. So there are lots of people in this situation. They still have jobs but are £500/month better off. Some are obviously feeling the effect, but if you didn't read the papers or watch the news you wouldn't know there was a recession. Property prices in many parts of London are near, at or above peak values seen in 2007.

The government isn't supporting anywhere near 60% of the population.

Many people on these forums are reading things in the newspapers that are just plain wrong. They aren't fact, they are just scare stories to sell newspapers.

Yes, the UK is in a bit of a state and there will be some tough times ahead. But millions of people would jump at the chance of living in England if they could. It's still one of the most prosperous countries in the world. Why else are so many people coming to live here. Immigration is a hot topic here because so many people are flooding into the country. They are coming because it is great here.

By the way, I'm planning to move to Thailand in May/June, so I'm not just trying to be patriotic. There are things about England that I don't like, but please don't make out that it is all over. It is far from it.

[w11guy]

I don't agree that some election poll has anything to do with this. I would imagine it is entwined with the Prudential/AIG/TATA deal.

Something which has Mandelsons's ratty little paw prints all over it. Presumably sold an awful lot of GBP to purchase AIG and maybe while cheap you will see TATA reinvest some of that money into the UK at an enormous gain.

This is what the BBC news said last night. The Prudential has had to or will have to buy a huge amount of $US and the amount is so huge that it has driven the pound down.

There is also no reason to think that a coalition goverment won't be able to cut spending. I think it will be easier for a coalition because no particular party will be stuck with the blame. All parties agree that it needs to be done, so what's the problem?

[tw25rw]

Socialized medicine in the UK is a disgrace.

And you base that on? (apart from idealogic zeal).

Very very few people in the UK would disband the NHS because... it works...

[tw25rw]

This is complete nonsense. I live in England and while we have a recession things aren't nearly as bad as the news would have you believe. I don't know anyone personally who has lost their jobs.

You are quite right, though I was without work for much of the last year.. I'm now working and my employer is taking on more people. I work in the financial industry doing IT work and keep an eye on the job market which is substantially stronger than last year with pay rates climbing fast.

[gharknes]

its the thai baht that needs addressing, a possible devaluation should/could be on the cards, the euro and the sterling have been tracking hand in hand more or less for the last 2 years, gives the west fav export environmet, the thais must be struggling with exports, not sure they even have a handle on what is going on or can even measure it, time for action, thailand may actually be more alligned to the yen at the moment which in my opinion is a mistake.

Come on Thailand do something before it becomes impossible for half the world to do business with you.

[Chaimai]

Indeed, but perhaps the simplest way to understand his words is to ask yourself, what would you expect the Head of FX at the UK's largest bank to say when asked to comment on the strength of the banks home currency, this is the same bank by the way where the British Chairman just left to live in Hong Kong.

CM - you make a sweeping statement without substantiating FACTS !

Geoghegan moved to Hong Kong to support the published strategy of putting resource into the geographical area that was peforming strongest. The group chairman remain sin London.

Story here http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/se...ocate-hong-kong

Edited March 2, 2010 by Chaimai

[roamer]

its the thai baht that needs addressing, a possible devaluation should/could be on the cards, the euro and the sterling have been tracking hand in hand more or less for the last 2 years, gives the west fav export environmet, the thais must be struggling with exports, not sure they even have a handle on what is going on or can even measure it, time for action, thailand may actually be more alligned to the yen at the moment which in my opinion is a mistake.

Come on Thailand do something before it becomes impossible for half the world to do business with you.

It surely does not make sense for a country that depends on exports for so much of its GDP, and to a lesser extent, tourism to keep its currency so high.

[Sakeopete]

I think the government is keeping the baht strong so the politicians can discretely move their ill gotten baht out of the country at a favorable exchange rate before an election is called. Once Thaksin and company return to power vengeance will be unleashed and many an elite will be doing a Thaksin by living in Dubai.

[Tigs]

I think the government is keeping the baht strong so the politicians can discretely move their ill gotten baht out of the country at a favorable exchange rate before an election is called. Once Thaksin and company return to power vengeance will be unleashed and many an elite will be doing a Thaksin by living in Dubai.

The Baht IS NOT STRONG! The other major currencies are weak. The situation for those of us out here is nothing to do with the Thai government maintaining a strong Baht.