In today's Torygraph (what else) is the following article

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/7916924/Britain-to-be-biggest-country-in-Europe-by-2050.html

Britain to be biggest country in Europe by 2050

Britain will be the biggest country in Europe by 2050, overtaking both France and Germany, according to official projections.

By Harry Wallop, Consumer Affairs Editor

Published: 4:56PM BST 29 Jul 2010

Europe's population will fall in the next 40 years, but Britain's population will swell by 15 million to hit 77 million Photo: PA

Britain will see its population swell from today's 62.2 million to 77 million, an increase of 24 per cent.

This will make it bigger than France, projected to be 70 million and Germany, which is predicted to have 71.5 million citizens.

The predictions suggest that Britain will see its population increase over the next 40 years at a far faster rate than nearly every other European country. The extra 15 million equates to the combined populations of Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Liverpool being added to the total national population over the next two generations.

Britain's population has started to climb sharply in recent years. Last year the Office for National Statistics indicated that mothers had more children than at any time since 1973.

Immigrant mothers accounted for more than half of the increase in births, but the fertility rate among British-born women also rose sharply.

The Population Reference Bureau predicts that France's population, in contrast, will increase at half the rate, adding 7 million to its 63 million. While Germany will actually see its population fall sharply from 81.6 million to 71.5 million because of a lack of immigration, and a far lower birth rate than that in Britain. It already has the second oldest population in the world after Japan, with one in five of all Germans over the age of 65.

Europe, in total, will see its population dip from 739 million to 720 million, because of its low birth rate.

The world's population will increase inexorably, swelling from 6.89 billion to 9.49 billion. India will be responsible for a significant part of this increase, becoming the largest country in the world by overtaking China.

The country, which hit 1 billion just a decade ago and now has a population of 1.19 billion, is expected to hit 1.75 billion, adding the equivalent of the entire population of the European Union in a mere 40 years.

China's population will increase, but relatively modestly, moving from 1.34 billion to 1.48 billion.

My take on this:

The forecast is flawed, as the population explosion in UK is mainly caused by immigrant families and their descendants. Only if immigration continues at a high rate will this trend continue, as previous immigrant families become assimilated (to a greater or lesser extent) and follow the local trend, rather than their previous culture. Plus, any Brit with half-a-mind will emigrate to Australia or NZ.

How come there are all these over-65 Germans? Surely we got rid of a lot of 'em in 1940-45? There may be a lot approachiung this age, 'cos after the war there was probably a lot of celebration going on.

All the extra Indians will be applying for immigration visas to Oz and USA, so India will not grow so large.

China will officially take over Africa and replace the local population there, thus solving it's land-space problem and mineral resource problem at one fell swoop.

By the way ....

The on-line (free) Torygraph, along with the Grauniad, are going downhill fast.

The content sucks and the level of reporting - subject, content and spelling - are abysmal.

Great Britain will still be approximately the same size in 2050. Maybe the population will have grown, but without an 'elluva lot of dredging and land reclamation I cannot see that the country will have expanded.

Why are these papers sliding? Could it be because they have launched subscription on-line newspapers? Or are British papers just plain awful? Conrad Black, please come back. You gave us value while you spent the profits.

Like the UK, Canada is growing disproportionately but not so bad as the UK. The problem lies with some immigrants not assimilating into the country. Muslim groups and those from India do not really assimilate at all. What happens is they become a country within a country. Chinese, Japanese, Thais, Australians, Kiwis, central Europeans come to Canada and intermix within one generation... or even less. Islamic, Pakistan and Indian immigrants come to Canada and the UK and stay within their own communities. Their daughters and sons are not allowed to marry outside their faith. And, radical Islamic groups are allowed to freely preach hatred and terrorism. The country within a country thing only works for so long before there are problems similar to what happened to the former Yugoslavia. It turns into a hornet's nest of fighting old battles

By the way ....

The on-line (free) Torygraph, along with the Grauniad, are going downhill fast.

The Telegraph used to be a paper (whether you agreed with its views or not) that knew the difference between news and comment and always kept them separate. No longer.

I like the crossword

By the way ....

The on-line (free) Torygraph, along with the Grauniad, are going downhill fast.

The Telegraph used to be a paper (whether you agreed with its views or not) that knew the difference between news and comment and always kept them separate. No longer.

Totally agree.

Things started to go downhill when the Times took the small-ads off the front page.

And the crosswords are becoming more esoteric, less about good plain education.

One thing I have noticed on my must admit infrequent visits to the UK is this social polarisation.

In the " Burbs " you have whitey and rich Indians. In the cities you have a racial mix which is bringing out a coffee coloured Brit. Quite encouraging and the only thing I can see which will stop civil violence in the future, however in the dark and murky poor " brown site ' areas of the major cities you have separate societies based on original ethnic lines. Part of North London, Somali. Outskirts of Wolverhampton Albanian. In these areas there will be war.