The Thai-Baht And The Future Of Farangs In Thailand

[MrWorldwide]

I spend a lot of my time in Patts in a bar almost entirely patronised by Finns - they ignore me and I ignore them. There are zero fights and young Aussies take one look at a buncn of middle-aged Finns and keep walking. If I'm lucky, the Chinese / Indian / Russian 'mongers' will also ignore me. As long as the beer is cold, they are welcome to the talent, particularly the Katoeys. I get more laughs out of a wicked little Tom bartender on Soi 6 than any combination of 'where you come from ?' robots, and there is none of the 'I go your hotel' BS. Total pisshead, but who isnt in Patts ?

[jrmaanda]

In the case your describing, all the foreigners that are thinking of spending their Holiday in Thailand can't afford to come anymore. And I don't think that Thailand will let that happen as Thailand needs Tourists.

You seem to be forgetting that times have changed. The large majority of tourists are now Asian. The future annual growth in tourist arrivals from China alone will outmatch the declining numbers of Europeans and Americans.

[jrmaanda]

Simply earn in Thailand and get paid in THB.

Plus if you really want to be better off, invest in the Thai stock market, especially small caps. I speak from fourteen years consistent experience.

[MongersSyndicate]

Thai tourism will thrive as long as sex is cheap and available. Period.

I don't think the baht at 20 would change that.

The sex tourists will keep coming, even if there is a nuclear catastrophe The last thing that will be left after the nuclear apocalypse will probably be coackroaches, gingko biloba trees and mongers...

The good thing with all the "problems" that happen in Thailand is that it skims a bit the amount of "serious farangs" wanting to relocate here, the mediocre, careful sparers and cautious "retirement planners" and it scares the stupid families away. But it will always remain heaven for the adventurers with in a few bahts in their pockets who just don't give a shit anyway and have more than one trick up their sleeves.

The easy way out is that you can always lower your standards, go minimalist and it can go on forever. Do you really need a car, a house, a "wife", a swimming pool, etc? It always baffles me how some people come to Thailand just to replicate some shitty, consumerist suburban lifestyle. This is not what SEA is about in my mind.

[maturebrit]

looking at the exch rate 44.85 to the pound this morning its only going to attract people looking to buy pounds cut their losses and go elsewhere

[StreetCowboy]

... It always baffles me how some people come to Thailand just to replicate some shitty, consumerist suburban lifestyle. This is not what SEA is about in my mind.

In that respect you differ from many millions of Asians.

SC

[MrWorldwide]

I guess it comes down to whether you want a family or not - in my mid 50s, that isn't on my 'to-do list', but horses for courses.

[wooloomooloo]

looking at the exch rate 44.85 to the pound this morning its only going to attract people looking to buy pounds cut their losses and go elsewhere

Damn, I've been had. Changed up 200 quid this morning at 44.76 [bangkok Bank] .

Edited February 24, 2013 by wooloomooloo

[Denizen]

looking at the exch rate 44.85 to the pound this morning its only going to attract people looking to buy pounds cut their losses and go elsewhere

Damn, I've been had. Changed up 200 quid this morning at 44.76 [bangkok Bank] .

That should see you through the evening if you attend the economy bars.

Why would anyone want to spend Thai Baht to buy UK Pounds which are on a downward trajectory?

[hagler]

.

nobody remembers end of october 2008 when AUD 1 bought 21 Baht?

I do

Edited February 24, 2013 by hagler

[Denizen]

.

nobody remembers end of october 2008 when AUD 1 bought 21 Baht?

I do

2008 doesn't matter in 2013. If it still hurts take something for the pain.

[MrWorldwide]

2008 was a blip, thankfully - anyone who isnt ready for the odd blip needs to reassess their budget. Of course, you arent showing us the rest of that graph, are you

[Tchooptip]

MJCM....please change your Avartar...I was reading these posts and trying to remove the insect on the screen for at least 2 mins, before i realised

Me too

[Denizen]

2008 was a blip, thankfully - anyone who isnt ready for the odd blip needs to reassess their budget. Of course, you arent showing us the rest of that graph, are you

It appears that a lot of the British farangs are not ready for the current and future GBP downward trajectory.

Somebody on this forum recently posted information about UK debt per person which was terrifying and around 3 times that of USA. It seems UK is living on credit.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Denizen

[eeeya]

.

nobody remembers end of october 2008 when AUD 1 bought 21 Baht?

I do

I remember and I got raped equally as bad in Japan the same month.

52 yen for 1 AU dollar.

Dinner for 2 was costing me about 200 bucks..

What I'm trying to say is that the graph everyone is quoting is when everything crashed.. not just thai specific..

But it bounced back in a couple of months..

]

Edited February 24, 2013 by eeeya

[HUAHIN62]

The tourism question is easy to answer, the Asians will fill the hotels. As their currencies will be increasing in value they will still have value for money in Thailand. There are already a trend towards that. Recently a Chinese film " Lost in Thailand" generated a lot of interest in Chiang Mai and Thailand. The western tourist will find a new value for money destination. It will however impact on Phuket and Pattaya as Asians don't like the sun and beaches as much as westerners.

The living in Thailand for westerners with a foreign pension is more difficult. Thailand's GDP is generated largely through exports +-66% and a strong Baht will hurt these exports. The Thai government will thus be forced to keep the Baht weak to promote economic growth. For the next 3 to 5 years the Baht will go up and down according to economic conditions in the US and Europe/UK. The Thai government however wants the country to become less of an export country and rather a consumer based economy. This will however not happen over night. If they implement the correct strategies and stable politics, the Thai economy will outgrow the US and European economies by 2 to 4% over the next 5 to 10 years. If that happens (strong domestic market and high growth) the Baht will see drastic gains against the USD, BP and Euro from 2018 onwards.

This is with the assumption that the US, UK and EU economies don't hit the brick wall within the next 5 years. If these countries hit the wall the Baht will drastically increase in value due to FDI inflows.

My personal view is that it will take the US, UK and EU at least 10 years to sortout the problems they are facing. The US is still in denial that they have a problem, while the UK and EU know they have a problem but don't know how big it is or don't want to say how big the problem is. The US and UK can however expect increased inflation over the next 12 months which should close the inflation gap with Thailand. So your choice would be to stay in Thailand with a lower cost of living and medium inflation or stay in your home country with high living cost and medium to low inflation. Light at the end of the tunnel is that one of the remedies to fix the world economy is the increase in interest rates, so if you have investments your return will increase.

[Tom9999]

The Baht at 20 might not change this.

But with SEA rising so will the standard of living for the rural Thais.

20 years ago a lot of the Ladies wanted to move with their Farang to Farangland....

ask the Ladies today and you will get a different answer.

The Sex wont stay cheap for ever...

[Denizen]

The tourism question is easy to answer, the Asians will fill the hotels. As their currencies will be increasing in value they will still have value for money in Thailand. There are already a trend towards that. Recently a Chinese film " Lost in Thailand" generated a lot of interest in Chiang Mai and Thailand. The western tourist will find a new value for money destination. It will however impact on Phuket and Pattaya as Asians don't like the sun and beaches as much as westerners.

The living in Thailand for westerners with a foreign pension is more difficult. Thailand's GDP is generated largely through exports +-66% and a strong Baht will hurt these exports. The Thai government will thus be forced to keep the Baht weak to promote economic growth. For the next 3 to 5 years the Baht will go up and down according to economic conditions in the US and Europe/UK. The Thai government however wants the country to become less of an export country and rather a consumer based economy. This will however not happen over night. If they implement the correct strategies and stable politics, the Thai economy will outgrow the US and European economies by 2 to 4% over the next 5 to 10 years. If that happens (strong domestic market and high growth) the Baht will see drastic gains against the USD, BP and Euro from 2018 onwards.

This is with the assumption that the US, UK and EU economies don't hit the brick wall within the next 5 years. If these countries hit the wall the Baht will drastically increase in value due to FDI inflows.

My personal view is that it will take the US, UK and EU at least 10 years to sortout the problems they are facing. The US is still in denial that they have a problem, while the UK and EU know they have a problem but don't know how big it is or don't want to say how big the problem is. The US and UK can however expect increased inflation over the next 12 months which should close the inflation gap with Thailand. So your choice would be to stay in Thailand with a lower cost of living and medium inflation or stay in your home country with high living cost and medium to low inflation. Light at the end of the tunnel is that one of the remedies to fix the world economy is the increase in interest rates, so if you have investments your return will increase.

Perhaps the next step in international economics will be Thais flooding into UK to seek a low cost living environment.

[Denizen]

The Baht at 20 might not change this.

But with SEA rising so will the standard of living for the rural Thais.

20 years ago a lot of the Ladies wanted to move with their Farang to Farangland....

ask the Ladies today and you will get a different answer.

The Sex wont stay cheap for ever...

Sex is cheap as long as you don't get married to the supplier.

If supply is single sourced the invisible hand then kicks in which predicts that if the supply in the market declines the price goes up. The invisible hand might also then deplete some of the finances.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Denizen

[diddums]

Perhaps the next step in international economics will be Thais flooding into UK to seek a low cost living environment.

Thai sex tourists ??

[TommoPhysicist]

The Baht at 20 might not change this.

But with SEA rising so will the standard of living for the rural Thais.

20 years ago a lot of the Ladies wanted to move with their Farang to Farangland....

ask the Ladies today and you will get a different answer.

The Sex wont stay cheap for ever...

I'm old, it doesn't need to remain cheap for all that much longer, five years should do me.

[Denizen]

Perhaps the next step in international economics will be Thais flooding into UK to seek a low cost living environment.

Thai sex tourists ??

The vikings invented sex tourism centuries ago. Six men and a boy conquer England during a weekend and back in the office on Monday. Very cheap; didn't even need to buy fuel. Sex was free.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Denizen

[chiangmaikelly]

Perhaps the next step in international economics will be Thais flooding into UK to seek a low cost living environment.

Thai sex tourists ??

The vikings invented sex tourism centuries ago. Six men and a boy conquer England during a weekend and back in the office on Monday. Very cheap; didn't even need to buy fuel. Sex was free.

The period of the Vikings lasted for almost 400 years, from the late 7th

century to the late 11th century. The very start of the Viking age was

in June 793 when the Vikings of Norway attacked the monastery of

Lindisfarne, on the east coast of England. From there the Vikings raided

and plundered the whole of Europe, leaving people in shock over the

violent outbursts of these huge, big Vikings which had just plundered

their homes, raped their wives, and stolen everything of value that was

there.

[Loptr]

Estimates range from 30 to 50 % increases against non-asian currencies within the next 10 years.

Do you have a source for this assertion? I think not, because it does not exist. If the EUR and the USD fall to those levels, you have more to worry about that the rise in the THB. Just sayin'.

[Denizen]

Perhaps the next step in international economics will be Thais flooding into UK to seek a low cost living environment.

Thai sex tourists ??

The vikings invented sex tourism centuries ago. Six men and a boy conquer England during a weekend and back in the office on Monday. Very cheap; didn't even need to buy fuel. Sex was free.

The period of the Vikings lasted for almost 400 years, from the late 7th

century to the late 11th century. The very start of the Viking age was

in June 793 when the Vikings of Norway attacked the monastery of

Lindisfarne, on the east coast of England. From there the Vikings raided

and plundered the whole of Europe, leaving people in shock over the

violent outbursts of these huge, big Vikings which had just plundered

their homes, raped their wives, and stolen everything of value that was

there.

Sounds like Vikings passed their genes on to men who work for taxation authorities. Leaving people in shock over the

violent outbursts of these tax collectors who plunder homes, rape wives and steal everything of value.

Before this act of pillage they say "I am from the government and I am here to help you". Those words are designed to paralyze the victim with fear.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Denizen

[Thailand1977]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9891082/Trade-protectionism-looms-next-as-central-banks-exhaust-QE.html

When the above link proves to be correct and the west starts to protect their economies in the same way nations like Thailand do, then the Thai export market won't be too hot.

Asian countries can only copy and offer cheap labour, when western govts can no longer print and borrow and western taxpayers can no longer afford to fund people to sit on their backsides so companies like Apple can make obscene profits by outsourcing jobs then the fun will begin.

Edited February 25, 2013 by Thailand1977

[antiquepete]

If you think Thailand is expensive try living in Australia, the cost of living has sky rocketed in the last few years, meat,fruit and veg have all increased to ridiculous prices,my house insurance with R.A.C.Q, went from $700 two years ago $1200 the next year and last year $3995. When I complained I was told it was because of all the floods and fires we have in Aussie add on to that $3000+ rates and that does not include water another $1400 a year. Small, and medium business are closing down at an alarming rate and they are the biggest employers, shops stand empty in many towns and cities rows of them.

Guys if you can't live on your pension here you have no chance in Australia

[Denizen]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9891082/Trade-protectionism-looms-next-as-central-banks-exhaust-QE.html

When the above link proves to be correct and the west starts to protect their economies in the same way nations like Thailand do, then the Thai export market won't be too hot.

Asian countries can only copy and offer cheap labour, when western govts can no longer print and borrow and western taxpayers can no longer afford to fund people to sit on their backsides so companies like Apple can make obscene profits by outsourcing jobs then the fun will begin.

I would like to see that fun begin when British workers agree to work for 300 Baht a day to attract manufacturing and compete.

[Denizen]

If you think Thailand is expensive try living in Australia, the cost of living has sky rocketed in the last few years, meat,fruit and veg have all increased to ridiculous prices,my house insurance with R.A.C.Q, went from $700 two years ago $1200 the next year and last year $3995. When I complained I was told it was because of all the floods and fires we have in Aussie add on to that $3000+ rates and that does not include water another $1400 a year. Small, and medium business are closing down at an alarming rate and they are the biggest employers, shops stand empty in many towns and cities rows of them.

Guys if you can't live on your pension here you have no chance in Australia

Australia is going through one of its many boom-bust cycles as mining and oil and gas exports force up the exchange rate which decimates manufacturing and services. There could be a long period of high exchange rates just as there was a long period 20+ years of low exchange rate from the 80s to the 2000s.

Australians might have been happiest during the period Keating called Australians the white trash of Asia.

Edited February 25, 2013 by Denizen

[Thailand1977]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9891082/Trade-protectionism-looms-next-as-central-banks-exhaust-QE.html

When the above link proves to be correct and the west starts to protect their economies in the same way nations like Thailand do, then the Thai export market won't be too hot.

Asian countries can only copy and offer cheap labour, when western govts can no longer print and borrow and western taxpayers can no longer afford to fund people to sit on their backsides so companies like Apple can make obscene profits by outsourcing jobs then the fun will begin.

I would like to see that fun begin when British workers agree to work for 300 Baht a day to attract manufacturing and compete.

You seem to misunderstand what protectionism is.

We had protectionism up until the late 70s, nobody was on such low wages then ... its coming.