Thailand The Odd Man Out In Regional Big Power Games: Opinion

[webfact]

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Thailand the odd man out in regional big power games
Kavi Chongkittavorn
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- One frequently asked question is: Does Thailand have the capacity to be a high-asset game changer in the new Asia? By conventional wisdom, the answer should be a forceful "yes". Unfortunately, this is not the case at this juncture. "Not for the time being," is the preferred answer. Here are two major hindrances.

First and foremost is Thailand's murky political outlook, which remains the biggest impediment to project power in the region. On the surface, it is relatively calm as the government continues its public relations spin through all sorts of media outlets on every issue at every turn. No other government in Thai history has spent billions of baht on public relations to justify government policies, especially bad ones. That explains why the government continues to augment its public relations efforts team domestically. The Pheu Thai Party wants a complete submergence of its views in the public domain. The purpose is to divert domestic and international attention from the real issues of the day. But it can only go so far.

Deep down, the government is besieged as the new Parliament session is approaching and the anti-government forces are gathering strength. Pheu Thai Party wants to hurriedly push through the Reconciliation Bill and Amnesty Bill to bring Thaksin Shinawatra back as soon as possible.

History could repeat itself again with bloody street demonstrations and confrontations, if the government continues to move stubbornly without heeding the views of other stakeholders. Near completion of its second year, the ruling party has become arrogant and numb to public criticism. Its members portray themselves as untouchable because they won the election. Several failed policies, especially the rice mortgage scheme, has gone unexplained - with no transparency and accountability, whatsoever.

That helps explain why new political and social movement groups have sprung up, some with no ties to the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship. The Thai Spring and the White Mask phenomenon are new. They were born out of a sense of betrayal by the government in power that has been directly choreographed by Thaksin. He is a fugitive facing a two-year prison sentence for corruption.

These new groups are taking up key issues affecting human security and the country's fragile future. They are capturing the growing frustration of both urban and rural youth with better education. They are tech savvy and interconnected through social media. In days ahead, they will grow bigger and become self-motivated. Potentially, they are new political forces to be reckoned with.

After her infamous comments in Mongolia, Yingluck and her aides have become sensitive to media comments, especially voices from the non-opposition audience. They want to restrict online freedom and control the flow of information. These days the established media, especially powerful free TV stations, do not stick to the controversial issues of the day. They often mention them in passing but without their usual probing instincts. Even with that kind of light news reporting and references, they were considered intolerable to Yingluck's close aides and groups of friends. Thousands of community radio channels, especially the unregistered ones, continue to broadcast inciting and hateful speech and information against political opponents, contrary to the state objectives of community building and integration.

Two years have elapsed, and national reconciliation has not moved ahead as the government promised. More needs to be done. Instead, the focus is on first-house and rice mortgage schemes - despite the high start-up costs and negative consequences. But unfortunately, the whole government mechanisms have been tasked to bring Thaksin back home within this year.

Here is a specific case. Thailand and the US have agreed to upgrade their strategic talks to the two plus two

(foreign and defence) dialogue framework at the ministerial level - similar to the Philippines-US revitalised alliance which was held successfully last year. But due to the perceived incompetence of the Thai participants, the two plus two inaugural meeting was postponed and eventually downgraded to the senior-official level. This allows Permanent Secretary Sihasak Phuangkhetkaew to lead the dialogue. Moreover, a longstanding Thai request for a Yingluck visit to the White House has not yet been realised. Before such a decision is made, the White House has to make sure there would be substantial topics to discuss and exchange. Malaysia, the Philippines and Myanmar did not have such a dilemma.

For nearly two years, Yingluck has gotten away scot-free with her soft and mild-mannered touches, along with empty comments that appealed to the apathetic Thai public. However, all changed after the venomous speech in Ulan Bator, where she criticised the state of Thai democracy, defended her brother, and blamed the military.

Since then the government has reared its ugly head. Media-related authorities have been given instructions to follow and identify outlets critical of the government, especially of Yingluck and her performance. Before Mongolia, she could get away with anything. Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

Previously, Thailand shined, as it was central to the power games, even when its leadership was not perfect. The country muddled through with its national interests protected. Political chaos was rampant throughout the 1970s to 1990s, before Thaksin's ascension in early 2001 - but it had no contagious effect. Each political disturbance faltered and recurred with few negative consequences. Today, things are different, as the discord has caused chains of reaction and policy shifts detrimental to long-term national interests. Now with a new regional landscape and the much heralded new Asia, Thailand is losing its strategic imperative to neighbours with political stability and fresher outlooks.

Most importantly, the major powers are no longer patient with Thailand's ambivalence - once the country's traditional diplomatic asset.


-- The Nation 2013-06-10

[MEL1]

HEAR HEAR!

Not much more needs adding to that, IMHO.

-mel.

[bigbamboo]

Thailand does have the capacity to be major player in the AEC, after Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. But first it needs to avail itself of a government where corruption levels are at least manageable (this is Asia after all) and where appointment to senior positions is based on ability not connections.

Hope springs eternal.

[Thai at Heart]

Long term stability in Thailand has always been an illusion with so many coups. Thailand took advantage of so many other countries being basket cases or communist for a long time.

Once these other countries got their acts together Thailand has ceased to be so relevant on the regional stage.

[Noistar]

Perhaps it's the reasons for the coups, rather than the coups themselves which are the problem.

Saving Thailand from itself (the inability of politicians to put Thailand first) seems a more worthy cause than perpetuating corruption

[Thai at Heart]

Perhaps it's the reasons for the coups, rather than the coups themselves which are the problem.

Saving Thailand from itself (the inability of politicians to put Thailand first) seems a more worthy cause than perpetuating corruption

Not all the coups were caused to prevent corruption, as though the armed forces aren't corrupt anyway.

In fact one of the major reasons the Thai army is shopping around so hard for equipment these days is that it's harder and harder for EU and USA firms to throw a bung these days.

Edited June 10, 2013 by Thai at Heart

[OzMick]

"...a longstanding Thai request for a Yingluck visit to the White House has not yet been realised"

If some new girl in my local bar gave me the "handsum man" treatment while the g/f was watching, I doubt she would get an invite round for morning tea.

[Neilly]

Not a bad article...and this bit hits the proverbial nail on the head

Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

[Thai at Heart]

Not a bad article...and this bit hits the proverbial nail on the head

Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

Another article that is fairly close to the bone for "the Nation".

[Roadman]

While one can undertsnd why thai reporters can not 'gnaw the meat to the bone' it is at least pleasing to see that the nation's writers are actually starting to put together more accurate perspectives.

[chainarong]

Thailand has stagnated since 1997, although you would be hard pressed to see where , except the most important investment, it's people , the people have been left behind , living in substandard conditions , lacking utility services in area's, no buying power, the PTP governments negative two faced policies, it's interpretation of democracy, the continuing friendship with despot regimes , this sends the wrong message to other countries who are active in the region, in other words you ain't got nothing to offer

[Noistar]

Perhaps it's the reasons for the coups, rather than the coups themselves which are the problem.

Saving Thailand from itself (the inability of politicians to put Thailand first) seems a more worthy cause than perpetuating corruption

Not all the coups were caused to prevent corruption, as though the armed forces aren't corrupt anyway.

In fact one of the major reasons the Thai army is shopping around so hard for equipment these days is that it's harder and harder for EU and USA firms to throw a bung these days.

Nobody's perfect - I take your point, although your last sentence may be a bit too cynical

[PREM-R]

From Thai visa rules:

Please be informed that ThaiVisa is an apolitical discussion forum,
meaning that we take an unbiased position in regard to political matters
in Thailand. As such, ThaiVisa will not permit itself to become a
sounding platform for members to lobby other members to effect changes
to or suggestions on political issues or Thai government decrees. This
does not mean that members cannot voice a political opinion as ThaiVisa
is first and foremost a discussion forum, but lobbying for any kind of
action is forbidden.

But it sold itself to an Amart owned, Anti PTP newspaper whose biased view of the country is reported constantly on this forum, to the exclusion of others. Very apolitical.

[TomTao]

So long as Thailand is politically unstable, corruption at the goverment level is rampant and tollerated, and the national policy decisions are made by a convicted felon in self exile, among other problems, Thailand's international reputation and influence will continue to take a beating. The government that was elected by the people should be acting in the interest of the people, not in the interest of a few, specifically not in the interst of an individual.

[FarangTalk]

Politically unstable?

Just wait a few more years and this will seem like a walk in the park.

[bkkgriz]

"Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad."

I couldn't have put it better myself. Nincompoops. Indeed. Thailand may not be the No 1 Banana Republic as of right now, but it certainly is vying for that illustrious position.

[A Member]

Thailand has many embassies overseas and presumably they send diplomatic cables back to the Foreign Ministry on matters happening within the country where they are located although Thailand's view of the world is probably rather short sighted compared to other nations.

However knowing what goes on in diplomatic circles will this government be so naive as to think what's happening here isn't been reported around the world and must be making the readers in many Foreign Ministries cringe ?

I suppose we can have a mixture of Thai belief in being " the hub " of everything coupled with the PTP's attitude of " if we say everything is just fine then that's exactly what it is ".

[OzMick]

From Thai visa rules:

Please be informed that ThaiVisa is an apolitical discussion forum,

meaning that we take an unbiased position in regard to political matters

in Thailand. As such, ThaiVisa will not permit itself to become a

sounding platform for members to lobby other members to effect changes

to or suggestions on political issues or Thai government decrees. This

does not mean that members cannot voice a political opinion as ThaiVisa

is first and foremost a discussion forum, but lobbying for any kind of

action is forbidden.

But it sold itself to an Amart owned, Anti PTP newspaper whose biased view of the country is reported constantly on this forum, to the exclusion of others. Very apolitical.

It is not compulsory.

[Thai at Heart]

Thailand has many embassies overseas and presumably they send diplomatic cables back to the Foreign Ministry on matters happening within the country where they are located although Thailand's view of the world is probably rather short sighted compared to other nations.

However knowing what goes on in diplomatic circles will this government be so naive as to think what's happening here isn't been reported around the world and must be making the readers in many Foreign Ministries cringe ?

I suppose we can have a mixture of Thai belief in being " the hub " of everything coupled with the PTP's attitude of " if we say everything is just fine then that's exactly what it is ".

Thailand was the "hub" for Western countries to approach to enter into South East Asia for a long time, as long as the neighbouring countries were a screw up. Given time, whilst not delivering true democracy, those countries at least got themselves back on their feet and started to engage politically and economically with the west. Throw in a rather messy 10 years of government in Thailand, and Thailand's status as the "hub" has diminished to a point now, that for example, Thailand trying to offer Daiwei to the world, and basically everyone thumbing their nose at the idea.

Thailand is not as strategically important as it used to be, but, they keep flogging the "hub" to the world.

[smedly]

Not a bad article...and this bit hits the proverbial nail on the head

Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

brave nation article and cuts right to the bone - love to hear the comments from the two clowns above as they read it - that would be funny

and yingluc not being invited to the US because there would be nothing to discuss except nails shoes and hair

This article just sums it all up and also is an escalation by critics and press who are starting to see the writing on the wall and feel more confident about saying so in public

[Thai at Heart]

Not a bad article...and this bit hits the proverbial nail on the head

Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

brave nation article and cuts right to the bone - love to hear the comments from the two clowns above as they read it - that would be funny

and yingluc not being invited to the US because there would be nothing to discuss except nails shoes and hair

This article just sums it all up and also is an escalation by critics and press who are starting to see the writing on the wall and feel more confident about saying so in public

Amazing. And all it apparently took was some gnashing about the value of the baht, and a question from Moody's to bring this all to a head. Where did it all go wrong? Or was it ever right?

[bigbamboo]

From Thai visa rules:

Please be informed that ThaiVisa is an apolitical discussion forum,

meaning that we take an unbiased position in regard to political matters

in Thailand. As such, ThaiVisa will not permit itself to become a

sounding platform for members to lobby other members to effect changes

to or suggestions on political issues or Thai government decrees. This

does not mean that members cannot voice a political opinion as ThaiVisa

is first and foremost a discussion forum, but lobbying for any kind of

action is forbidden.

But it sold itself to an Amart owned, Anti PTP newspaper whose biased view of the country is reported constantly on this forum, to the exclusion of others. Very apolitical.

I don't see any pro PTP supporters being denied the chance to express their views on TV.

Unfortunately the same cannot always be said for the party they support.

[Pib]

...along with empty comments that appealed to the apathetic Thai public.

Yes, couldn't agree more...an apathetic Thai public easy swayed by empty political comments is a big factor in Thailand remaining in its own little universe.

[mrtoad]

Not a bad article...and this bit hits the proverbial nail on the head

Worse still are the top Cabinet members, especially the two deputy prime ministers Chalerm Yoobamrung and Plodprasop Suraswadi, who have turned Thailand into the No 1 Banana Republic. Their comments and personal nincompoop acts have been the butt of jokes in diplomatic circles at home and abroad.

Those two clowns in particular are a hard act to follow. Howvere, due to their narcissism, and fondness for a drop too much of Ear medicine, I doubt that have any idea how they are viewed. As for Yingluck, well she makes Sooty look intelligent.

[drdoom6996]

HEAR HEAR!

Not much more needs adding to that, IMHO.

-mel.

+1

[hgma]

It seems that a tycoon is missing.

Anti Thaksin and vocal opponent of YS.

Upon this bad news an excellent editorial by The Nation is added to my fear that the worse is yet to come.

my moody rating for Thailand is pessimistic.

[Bellweather]

Thailand has many embassies overseas and presumably they send diplomatic cables back to the Foreign Ministry on matters happening within the country where they are located although Thailand's view of the world is probably rather short sighted compared to other nations.

However knowing what goes on in diplomatic circles will this government be so naive as to think what's happening here isn't been reported around the world and must be making the readers in many Foreign Ministries cringe ?

I suppose we can have a mixture of Thai belief in being " the hub " of everything coupled with the PTP's attitude of " if we say everything is just fine then that's exactly what it is ".

Some of the stuff that came out of Wikileaks showed embassies etc reporting home use less than flattering and definitely not diplomatic language about their host government. Would love to see some of the stuff being said about the Thai government and various personalities

Maybe the word coup does not get used.but I'm sure there must be great fear of major civil disorder brewing.

[iancnx]

Especially worrying (if it is true) is this quote from the article:

Quote//

Thousands of community radio channels, especially the unregistered ones, continue to broadcast inciting and hateful speech and information against political opponents, contrary to the state objectives of community building and integration. //

[yoshiwara]

Especially worrying (if it is true) is this quote from the article:

Quote//

Thousands of community radio channels, especially the unregistered ones, continue to broadcast inciting and hateful speech and information against political opponents, contrary to the state objectives of community building and integration. //

Exactly. Talking out of both sides of one's mouth at the same time is a Thaksin speciality.

[yoshiwara]

I am waiting for the usual crowd to sashay in with their predictable complaints against The Nation and ThaiVisa bias. and of course our very special friend Lord Snooty On the One Hand and On the Other Hand.