Travel-warning threat looms over tourism: TAT

[webfact]

Travel-warning threat looms over tourism
Bamrung Amnatcharoenrit
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The tourism industry could lose Bt25 billion in revenue next month if countries issue their highest warnings against travelling to the Kingdom, said Sugree Sithivanich, deputy governor for marketing communications of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).

If that were to happen, the number of foreign arrivals in December would drop by 8-10 per cent year on year. That would mean that for the whole of 2013, the number of arrivals would be only 25.75 million, down from 26.1 million as projected previously.

If such a situation lasted into the first quarter of 2014, the number of foreign tourists could be expected to grow by just 7 per cent year on year. Previously, the TAT expected arrivals to increase by 13 per cent to 28.01 million next year. However, tourism revenue would be about the same as projected previously, with an increase of almost 13 per cent to about Bt1.326 trillion.

Still, Sugree said that if this scenario transpired, only one to three months would be needed for a recovery, thanks to the quick rebound of short-haul foreign tourists.

If the scenario got even worse, like in 2008 when Suvarnabhumi Airport was shut down by protesters, the tourism outlook would be hit even harder. According to the TAT's projection, the number of foreign tourists would plunge to 650,000 in December, a decline of 18-20 per cent year on year, with a corresponding revenue loss of Bt27.9 billion. As a result, the total number of foreign tourists in 2013 would be just 25.55 million.

Sugree said it was hard for the TAT to analyse the situation because the political landscape is still cloudy, as is the probable impact with tourism. The degree of its impact would depend on the situation. For example, if there are casualties or the use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators, the outlook still may not be too gloomy.

But if the situation escalated into civil war, that would put an end to tourism. It would take the industry at least six months to rebound from that eventuality.

So far, however, tourism has not suffered. There is no sign of any cancellations of hotel reservations.

The 27 TAT overseas offices have made a major effort to provide potential tourists with clear information about the situation. Arrivals from China, Singapore and Malaysia, which are among the key short-haul markets along with Japan, are still at a good level.

So far, the flow of foreign tourists into the Kingdom continues to rise. According to the TAT, arrivals increased by 17.08 per cent to about 26.171 million in the period from January to November 14 when compared with the same period last year. During the period, tourism revenue grew by 19.69 per cent year on year to about Bt1.177 trillion.


-- The Nation 2013-11-26

[lemoncake]

Right , so if countries issue highest warning it will only drop by 10%, in other words still just as much as last year if not more.

Good to see TAT is optimistic

[Thainy Tim]

But if the situation escalated into civil war, that would put an end to tourism. It would take the industry at least six months to rebound from that eventuality.

Lol.... If the situation descended into civil war , it would take years to rebound, if in fact it was ever able to at all. Once a country has a bloody civil war, as far tourists are concerned, it becomes a blacklisted country in their minds.

Especially if the war lasted years.... Not that it will ever go that far. Unless of course that is what is on one man's agenda back in Dubai.

[Tatsujin]

Sugree said it was hard for the TAT to analyse the situation because the political landscape is still cloudy, as is the probable impact with tourism, but please rest assured that TAT will continue to overestimate and makeup the numbers to suit regardless of the current or future situation.

[coobah666]

Better than 2 trillion baht lost to coruption

[laurentbkk]

well it only started .... wait for another few days ... some friends already asked me about the situation , they are suppose to come in January ....

[assayer]

Travel-warning threat looms over tourism
Bamrung Amnatcharoenrit
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The tourism industry could lose Bt25 billion in revenue next month if countries issue their highest warnings against travelling to the Kingdom, said Sugree Sithivanich, deputy governor for marketing communications of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT).

If that were to happen, the number of foreign arrivals in December would drop by 8-10 per cent year on year. That would mean that for the whole of 2013, the number of arrivals would be only 25.75 million, down from 26.1 million as projected previously.

If such a situation lasted into the first quarter of 2014, the number of foreign tourists could be expected to grow by just 7 per cent year on year. Previously, the TAT expected arrivals to increase by 13 per cent to 28.01 million next year. However, tourism revenue would be about the same as projected previously, with an increase of almost 13 per cent to about Bt1.326 trillion.

Still, Sugree said that if this scenario transpired, only one to three months would be needed for a recovery, thanks to the quick rebound of short-haul foreign tourists.

If the scenario got even worse, like in 2008 when Suvarnabhumi Airport was shut down by protesters, the tourism outlook would be hit even harder. According to the TAT's projection, the number of foreign tourists would plunge to 650,000 in December, a decline of 18-20 per cent year on year, with a corresponding revenue loss of Bt27.9 billion. As a result, the total number of foreign tourists in 2013 would be just 25.55 million.

Sugree said it was hard for the TAT to analyse the situation because the political landscape is still cloudy, as is the probable impact with tourism. The degree of its impact would depend on the situation. For example, if there are casualties or the use of tear gas to disperse demonstrators, the outlook still may not be too gloomy.

But if the situation escalated into civil war, that would put an end to tourism. It would take the industry at least six months to rebound from that eventuality.

So far, however, tourism has not suffered. There is no sign of any cancellations of hotel reservations.

The 27 TAT overseas offices have made a major effort to provide potential tourists with clear information about the situation. Arrivals from China, Singapore and Malaysia, which are among the key short-haul markets along with Japan, are still at a good level.

So far, the flow of foreign tourists into the Kingdom continues to rise. According to the TAT, arrivals increased by 17.08 per cent to about 26.171 million in the period from January to November 14 when compared with the same period last year. During the period, tourism revenue grew by 19.69 per cent year on year to about Bt1.177 trillion.

If that were to happen, the number of foreign arrivals in December would drop by 8-10 per cent year on year. That would mean that for the whole of 2013, the number of arrivals would be only 25.75 million, down from 26.1 million as projected previously.

So far, the flow of foreign tourists into the Kingdom continues to rise. According to the TAT, arrivals increased by 17.08 per cent to about 26.171 million in the period from January to November 14 when compared with the same period last year. During the period, tourism revenue grew by 19.69 per cent year on year to about Bt1.177 trillion.

Someones number don't make sense to me

[thailiketoo]

They have to push the Guy Fawkes night theme a bit more.

[noitom]

Why would tourists even travel to Thailand particularly at this point? Why risk your vacation, business or sexual desires on it?

[anon467848]

The TAT should employ somebody who knows how to use a calculator.. TAT are in fantasy land with their arrival numbers and the dollars spent for each arrival.

[Ulysses G.]

Why do these idiots almost always pull this crap right at the beginning of high season?

[thailiketoo]

The TAT should employ somebody who knows how to use a calculator.. TAT are in fantasy land with their arrival numbers and the dollars spent for each arrival.

If you know the TAT is wrong you must have the real numbers. So tell us. If you don't have the real numbers how do you know the TAT is wrong?

[DocN]

This is still, where TAT pulls numbers and analysis out off

[thailiketoo]

This is still, where TAT pulls numbers and analysis out off

15) Not to use ThaiVisa.com to post any material which is knowingly or can be reasonably construed as false, inaccurate

[coma]

It pains me that Thais outside the toursim industry, and particularly those protesting right now don't really care about travel warnings and tourist numbers.

[JRSoul]

The TAT should employ somebody who knows how to use a calculator.. TAT are in fantasy land with their arrival numbers and the dollars spent for each arrival.

If you know the TAT is wrong you must have the real numbers. So tell us. If you don't have the real numbers how do you know the TAT is wrong?

As the TAT number is only an estimate/prediction, the odds of it being wrong are almost infinitely higher than of it being right.

Edited November 26, 2013 by JRSoul

[silent]

The TAT should employ somebody who knows how to use a calculator.. TAT are in fantasy land with their arrival numbers and the dollars spent for each arrival.

If you know the TAT is wrong you must have the real numbers. So tell us. If you don't have the real numbers how do you know the TAT is wrong?

Best guess:

Randomly picked numbers usually go by without questioning, except for another random number of people that might take the time to figure it out. Go figure

[nong38]

Why is that Thais dont ever consider what the rest of the world thinks about Thailand? They just dont seem to consider how others view these endless protests from opposition groups, perhaps thats where TAT comes in to say how many tourists come and how much it will increase by, all spurious figures of course and the average Thai problem never sees them. The timing of these protests is also wonderful just as the high season is about to kick off, amazing.

A civil War is not likely but it kill off the tourist trade for years, not 6 months.

Perhaps the real answer is to split the country up into a Democrat Thailand and PTP Thailand although it would take years of talks and endless protests over where the borders would be, until then Thailand continues with its folly of disruption.

[noitom]

Why is that Thais dont ever consider what the rest of the world thinks about Thailand? They just dont seem to consider how others view these endless protests from opposition groups, perhaps thats where TAT comes in to say how many tourists come and how much it will increase by, all spurious figures of course and the average Thai problem never sees them. The timing of these protests is also wonderful just as the high season is about to kick off, amazing.

A civil War is not likely but it kill off the tourist trade for years, not 6 months.

Perhaps the real answer is to split the country up into a Democrat Thailand and PTP Thailand although it would take years of talks and endless protests over where the borders would be, until then Thailand continues with its folly of disruption.

Thailand is a circus for sure.

[EyesWideOpen]

TAT is always spinning nonsense about problems that other countries face will not affect tourism in Thailand

in the slightest. Wonder how they will spin backyard problems ?? Adventure travel ? Come to Amazing Thailand

and enjoy your first coup !!!! Why go to a boring country ???

[sawadee1947]

..hope many countries would give a warning soon. It will help to cool down the protesters and would make the government work again

[BlackJack]

political unrest

murder on the streets

muggings

noise from boom cars

floods

drugs

prostitution

unlicensed bars, cars, bikes, businesses

jet ski scams

baht bus scams

scams in general

alcohol more expensive than UK

alcohol sales hours for children

noise

pollution

muslim insurgency in South

food poisoning

warnings

did i miss something

???????

[ggold]

I like the way the number of visitors keeps rising even when there are political problems here! I thought a couple months ago they were saying the expected 24 million visitors this year! that seems to have increased to 28 million for next year?

[rfukata]

TAT pax numbers reflect the Thai rice numbers, always disguised and inaccurate to mislead the public.

Also, TAT has mentioned nothing about the impact pending from the Russian government about canceling all

the Russian charter flights into Thailand due in part of the safety of their citizens.

[Bpuumike]

It pains me to remind all again about Sir Winston Churchill.

To paraphrase slightly "There are lies, dam-n lies and TAT statistics"

[jpeg]

Here on Phuket, high season and no bloody tourists. Fabulous! And no I don't give a rat's about the boom boom bar owners/tuk tuk drivers/overpriced crap restaurants et al.

[cloghead]

political unrest

murder on the streets

muggings

noise from boom cars

floods

drugs

prostitution

unlicensed bars, cars, bikes, businesses

jet ski scams

baht bus scams

scams in general

alcohol more expensive than UK

alcohol sales hours for children

noise

pollution

muslim insurgency in South

food poisoning

warnings

did i miss something

???????

yeah!

contaminated rice

less-than-friendly (non-compliant) ladyboys

Edited November 26, 2013 by cloghead

[Fookhaht]

..hope many countries would give a warning soon. It will help to cool down the protesters and would make the government work again

Really? How did that work out in 2010?

[Felt 35]

political unrest

murder on the streets

muggings

noise from boom cars

floods

drugs

prostitution

unlicensed bars, cars, bikes, businesses

jet ski scams

baht bus scams

scams in general

alcohol more expensive than UK

alcohol sales hours for children

noise

pollution

muslim insurgency in South

food poisoning

warnings

did i miss something

???????

Yes.......http://www.humantrafficking.org/countries/thailand

[Bagwan]

Why is that Thais dont ever consider what the rest of the world thinks about Thailand? They just dont seem to consider how others view these endless protests from opposition groups, perhaps thats where TAT comes in to say how many tourists come and how much it will increase by, all spurious figures of course and the average Thai problem never sees them. The timing of these protests is also wonderful just as the high season is about to kick off, amazing.

A civil War is not likely but it kill off the tourist trade for years, not 6 months.

Perhaps the real answer is to split the country up into a Democrat Thailand and PTP Thailand although it would take years of talks and endless protests over where the borders would be, until then Thailand continues with its folly of disruption.

If I were ripped off, subject to discrimination, denied a reasonable education, health facilities and career opportunities I wouldn't give a toss what the people in Mongolia thought.

Modified to correct a typo.

Edited November 26, 2013 by Bagwan