Thai economy shrinks 0.6 in Q1, first time since 2011: official data

[webfact]

Thai economy shrinks 0.6 in Q1, first time since 2011: official data

BANGKOK, May 19, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's economy shrunk 0.6 percent year on year in January-March, data showed Monday, as the kingdom's political crisis battered consumer confidence and frightened off tourists.

The contraction is the first since the last three months of 2011, when the country was hit by massive flooding. The National Economic and Social Development Board also slashed its growth outlook for 2014, forecasting 1.5-2.5 percent expansion, down from a previous estimate of 3.0-4.0 percent.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-05-19

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Crisis-hit Thai economy shrinks 0.6% in Q1: govt

BANGKOK, May 19, 2014 (AFP) - Thailand's economy shrunk 0.6 percent year on year in January-March, data showed Monday, as the kingdom's festering political crisis battered consumer confidence and frightened off tourists.

The contraction is the first since the last three months of 2011, when the country was hit by massive flooding, and comes as opposition protesters press for the removal of a bloodied caretaker government.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) also slashed its growth outlook for 2014, forecasting 1.5-2.5 percent expansion, down from a previous estimate of 3.0-4.0 percent.

Consumers reeled in their spending "due to increasing concerns over the domestic political situation" that has seen nearly seven months of anti-government protests, a prime minister toppled and street violence that has left 28 people dead and hundreds wounded.

Southeast Asia's second biggest economy remains without a fully functioning government, cramping state spending and investment in key infrastructure projects and prompting the NESDB forecast reduction.

The Thai economy in 2014 "is likely to grow at a slow pace as a result of the economic contraction in the first quarter" while the "political uncertainty" will also limit expansion, the board said in a statement.

The kingdom had enjoyed a reputation as "Teflon Thailand" for its enviable record of economic resilience in the face of the last eight years of political upheaval as well as devastating floods in 2011.

But Fitch Ratings has warned that its "'BBB+" sovereign credit rating could be clipped if the political deadlock continues through the second half of this year.

- 'The stakes are rising' -

"The stakes are rising," Capital Economics warned in a briefing note. "Private sector confidence is likely to remain dire until there are at least some signs that the crisis is moving towards a resolution. And without a functional government, public spending will stay shackled," it added.

Consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level in more than a decade and tourist arrivals dipped by around eight or nine percent in February and March as foreign investors nervously watch the political crisis unfold.

The ruling party has staggered on despite a controversial court ruling this month that saw premier Yingluck Shinawatra thrown out off office along with several cabinet ministers.

She was swiftly replaced by Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan who is facing pressure to step down as caretaker leader in favour of a premier appointed by the Thai upper house.

Anti-government protesters are calling on the part-elected, part-appointed Senate to invoke a clause in the constitution to remove the government and name a new premier.

Senators are mulling the case for an appointed leader, although critics say such a move has no legal basis.

Thailand has been scored by a deep political divide since 2006 when Yingluck's billionaire brother Thaksin was ousted in a military coup but retains a major influence from overseas, where he lives to avoid jail for a corruption conviction.

Until now, the economy has proved resilient in the face of several rounds of pro- and anti-Thaksin protests since then.


-- (c) Copyright AFP 2014-05-19

[EricBerg]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

[pookiki]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

[h90]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

legitimate government? The courts just told they did abuse their power and the NACC found out they are corrupt. Don't need to talk about the vote buying

[Thaddeus]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

Thaksinomics only benefits Thaksin and others hanging on to his shirt tails.

[dru2]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

How? By returning the money he has stolen from the Thai people and continues to steal?

[Thai at Heart]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

Actually, overspending all that money into the economy was probably an economic stimulus.

[EricBerg]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

How? By returning the money he has stolen from the Thai people and continues to steal?

By having him arrested, thrown in jail and seizing as much of his assets as possible.

[robblok]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Dont forget it was Taksins amnesty that started it. So it is your beloved government that is responsible.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[pookiki]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Dont forget it was Taksins amnesty that started it. So it is your beloved government that is responsible.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The alleged Thaksin amnesty has been off the table for a long time. The amnesty, like the flood, is water under the bridge. Yet, the hemorrhaging of the Thai economy continues.

[wprime]

Is this supposed to be surprising? The government was borrowing so much and pumping it into the economy, now it has stopped. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise that will make it contract.

[crazykopite]

If Thaskin was dead he would still be blamed I do not support anyone as they are all corrupt but why do people continue to blame the same person. The majority of wealthy people are crooks they pay crooked lawyers to cook their books it happens today and it will happen long after we are all dead wealth brings wealth by being ahead of the game !

[h90]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Dont forget it was Taksins amnesty that started it. So it is your beloved government that is responsible.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The alleged Thaksin amnesty has been off the table for a long time. The amnesty, like the flood, is water under the bridge. Yet, the hemorrhaging of the Thai economy continues.

But the corruption that should have covered with the amnesty still costs. 25.000 cases was said somewhere.

[GAZZPA]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Are you for real?

Rice pledging scheme (farmers not paid)

Corruption (nepotism, cronyism)

Car buy out scheme (people not paid)

Corrupt bill to bring back Thaksin without charge

School tablets fiasco

Missing flood prevention money

Rubber farmers crisis

Foreign investment down

I could go on,,, where have you been, are you not aware of all this issues?

[robblok]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Dont forget it was Taksins amnesty that started it. So it is your beloved government that is responsible.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The alleged Thaksin amnesty has been off the table for a long time. The amnesty, like the flood, is water under the bridge. Yet, the hemorrhaging of the Thai economy continues.

Yet it was the start of the problem it totally blew all trust in the government, so they are the cause and reforms are the only way to change and get a stable country. Now who would trust a government who would secretly push for an amnesty of the top crook and include 25.000 corruption cases. Not to mention a government who slashed the budget of anti corruption agency.

[pookiki]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Are you for real?

Rice pledging scheme (farmers not paid)

Corruption (nepotism, cronyism)

Car buy out scheme (people not paid)

Corrupt bill to bring back Thaksin without charge

School tablets fiasco

Missing flood prevention money

Rubber farmers crisis

Foreign investment down

I could go on,,, where have you been, are you not aware of all this issues?

I guess you aren't aware of all the economic news that has been reported for the last several months. The overwhelming consensus of these articles is that the Thai economy is in decline because of the continued political protests and not any of the reasons you cite. Please go on. Where have you been?

[Robby nz]

Methinks there is more to blame than the protests.

For instance the public debt being now over 80% must be having an adverse effect as people have to spend more of their income on interest.

The farmers not being paid must mean there is less spending from that sector.

Internal car sales being down can be blamed on people taking advantage of the first car scheme and now having a car so no need to buy another.

Exports being down can hardly be blamed on the protests as they are mainly driven by off shore factors.

While rice exports being down can be blamed on the pledging scheme.

The PT Govt not making provision for known budget payment during a caretaker period would also have an effect.

To list just a few.

However it is convenient to blame the protests as it removes responsibility from others.

[dcutman]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

So how does that explain the recession LOS was in last year in the first two quarters? Could it possibly be not as much about people protesting a corrupt govt but a corrupt govt in self service mode and implementing and continuing some of the worst economic policies in this countries history?

[GAZZPA]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Are you for real?

Rice pledging scheme (farmers not paid)

Corruption (nepotism, cronyism)

Car buy out scheme (people not paid)

Corrupt bill to bring back Thaksin without charge

School tablets fiasco

Missing flood prevention money

Rubber farmers crisis

Foreign investment down

I could go on,,, where have you been, are you not aware of all this issues?

I guess you aren't aware of all the economic news that has been reported for the last several months. The overwhelming consensus of these articles is that the Thai economy is in decline because of the continued political protests and not any of the reasons you cite. Please go on. Where have you been?

Oh dear, you are showing a clear lack of understanding, please think it through.

Why did the political crisis and protests begin? The last straw was the amnesty bill, however there were many issues leading up to that, I listed a few for you.

The political protests are a consequence not the route cause.

[pookiki]

I guess this shows that a massive flood of people trying to topple a legitimate government and block/prevent elections can do as much damage as a real flood! How much more damage needs to be done?

Dont forget it was Taksins amnesty that started it. So it is your beloved government that is responsible.

Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

The alleged Thaksin amnesty has been off the table for a long time. The amnesty, like the flood, is water under the bridge. Yet, the hemorrhaging of the Thai economy continues.

Yet it was the start of the problem it totally blew all trust in the government, so they are the cause and reforms are the only way to change and get a stable country. Now who would trust a government who would secretly push for an amnesty of the top crook and include 25.000 corruption cases. Not to mention a government who slashed the budget of anti corruption agency.

What continues to amaze me is the opinion that Thailand was some kind of Garden of Eden before Thaksin came along. This is clearly a skewed view of Thai history since the inception of a Constitutional Monarchy. And to use the amnesty as an excuse to support the damage done to the Thai economy and denying the Thai people's democratic right to vote to give them their voice to enact reforms is totally misguided.

[robblok]

The alleged Thaksin amnesty has been off the table for a long time. The amnesty, like the flood, is water under the bridge. Yet, the hemorrhaging of the Thai economy continues.

Yet it was the start of the problem it totally blew all trust in the government, so they are the cause and reforms are the only way to change and get a stable country. Now who would trust a government who would secretly push for an amnesty of the top crook and include 25.000 corruption cases. Not to mention a government who slashed the budget of anti corruption agency.

What continues to amaze me is the opinion that Thailand was some kind of Garden of Eden before Thaksin came along. This is clearly a skewed view of Thai history since the inception of a Constitutional Monarchy. And to use the amnesty as an excuse to support the damage done to the Thai economy and denying the Thai people's democratic right to vote to give them their voice to enact reforms is totally misguided.

That is where we differ.. 25.000 corruption cases and a convicted criminal are more then enough reasons to break this country down until there are more check and balances to keep a government from stunts like this. Remember the voting for others.. and the perjury that followed. Stuff like that shows the complete disregard for the law from the government. This was before all of this. This still has not changed.

You are the one that is misguided, Thailand was no garden of Eden but to have that as an excuse not to improve things is laughable. But then again it shows your red bias. I could have lived with this government if they were honest and did not abuse their power. They did so massively, the rice scam that was as clear as mud, and they wanted to loan trillions of baht outside of the budget and without checks. Sorry but a monster government like that deserves this and much more.

[TimCM]

What continues to amaze me is the opinion that Thailand was some kind of Garden of Eden before Thaksin came along. This is clearly a skewed view of Thai history since the inception of a Constitutional Monarchy. And to use the amnesty as an excuse to support the damage done to the Thai economy and denying the Thai people's democratic right to vote to give them their voice to enact reforms is totally misguided.

Despite your unusual hat my friend, you are most wise.

As an economist was going to add something to this thread,but the partisan rants of some means it would be a waste of time as all they will say is Thaksin bad, man in Dubai etc. We all kow how bad PT were for the economy but this current mess is obviously caused by the lack of confidence in the economy by both domestic consumers and foreign investors

[tullynagardy]

Sorry but a monster government like that deserves this and much more.

The problem is it isnt the government getting hurt, its ordinary Thais (like my brother in law who just got laid off as a Lorry driver) who suffer. Thaskin and Yingluck sit in their Palaces untouched by it all. The current situation is being drawn out by Suthep and those pulling his strings, people who also are unscathed by this mess.

Of course this isnt very easy for the pro yellow sex pats on here to understand. Their pension is still coming in untouched (probably rising due to the weakening baht) and the struggling economy means their telaks might sell themselves for a bit cheaper.

This forum is becoming harder to read with an ever growing band of clueless colour cheering morons with about as much economic or political knowledge as the average toddler, trying to pass their souless, lonely existence trolling on here to wind the "other side" up.

[anteater]

What continues to amaze me is the opinion that Thailand was some kind of Garden of Eden before Thaksin came along. This is clearly a skewed view of Thai history since the inception of a Constitutional Monarchy. And to use the amnesty as an excuse to support the damage done to the Thai economy and denying the Thai people's democratic right to vote to give them their voice to enact reforms is totally misguided.

Despite your unusual hat my friend, you are most wise.

As an economist was going to add something to this thread,but the partisan rants of some means it would be a waste of time as all they will say is Thaksin bad, man in Dubai etc. We all kow how bad PT were for the economy but this current mess is obviously caused by the lack of confidence in the economy by both domestic consumers and foreign investors

Actually the first Thaksin government was very good for the Thai economy - as both economic statistics and articles on 'New Mandala' have shown. Although the record of the Yingluck government is decidedly less clear-cut, that is no reason to have her removed by some legal machinations! It is rather a reason to let the voters decide to vote for someone or some party that they think is better (but probably won't be!)

Edited May 19, 2014 by anteater

[Thai at Heart]

Methinks there is more to blame than the protests.

For instance the public debt being now over 80% must be having an adverse effect as people have to spend more of their income on interest.

The farmers not being paid must mean there is less spending from that sector.

Internal car sales being down can be blamed on people taking advantage of the first car scheme and now having a car so no need to buy another.

Exports being down can hardly be blamed on the protests as they are mainly driven by off shore factors.

While rice exports being down can be blamed on the pledging scheme.

The PT Govt not making provision for known budget payment during a caretaker period would also have an effect.

To list just a few.

However it is convenient to blame the protests as it removes responsibility from others.

Now over 80%?

Come on then. Please furnish a quite for that one because even with the 2.2tn the haven't borrowed it wasn't even going to get to 65%.

That is absolutely blatant scare mongering.

C+I+G+X-M

The stupidest thing was everyone here begging for a cut in the exchange rate to boost exports. Did it work. Nope.

Now C is down because everyone has stopped borrowing for houses and cars, I is down because of uncertainty, G is down because they have run out of stimulus and M is way up in value because of a reduced value to the baht.

Edited May 19, 2014 by Thai at Heart

[Scarpolo]

Yes the floods hit hard. As did the rice pledging scheme. Paying up to 50% above international market prices and keeping the rice instead of selling it doesn't exactly contribute to growth. Losing the number one rice exporter position will have longer term effect too. And then of course there's the allover corruption which doesn't contribute to the economical development either.

But I read the missunderstood fugitive tripled his wealth over the past few years. Perhaps he can help Thailand making money again?

I wouldnt worry about the rice,

it will all be bought

the rest of the world needs food, and many crops are dissapearing, worldwide

[robblok]

Sorry but a monster government like that deserves this and much more.

The problem is it isnt the government getting hurt, its ordinary Thais (like my brother in law who just got laid off as a Lorry driver) who suffer. Thaskin and Yingluck sit in their Palaces untouched by it all. The current situation is being drawn out by Suthep and those pulling his strings, people who also are unscathed by this mess.

Of course this isnt very easy for the pro yellow sex pats on here to understand. Their pension is still coming in untouched (probably rising due to the weakening baht) and the struggling economy means their telaks might sell themselves for a bit cheaper.

This forum is becoming harder to read with an ever growing band of clueless colour cheering morons with about as much economic or political knowledge as the average toddler, trying to pass their souless, lonely existence trolling on here to wind the "other side" up.

You mean with people who don't agree with your red impaired vision.

Everyone suffers, because of the amnesty for Taksin, that was the catalyst and the sooner people understand it was the reds way of governing that caused this the better. But the red supporters (specially for you ill insult you ) who are pussy whipped by their red Isarn girl will think otherwise.

In case you have not noticed, inflation is rising mainly because of the rising of the minimum wage with a crazy amount. I am all for making sure the poor make a bit more money but everyone with a bit of economic sense could have seen that a big increase in minimum wage would lead to inflation.