Now might be the time to get into gold

[midas]

Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank

Steen Jakobsen Warns Of Looming US Slowdown, "I'm Long Gold... And Adding"

Gold remains top of my list for new investment – I’m long and adding – I have also re-sold Brent crude as the marginal cost of producing oil is still rising, meaning the global impact still is negative net-net.

https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/macro-digest-up-close-and-nasty-us-slowdown-looms-3785254

[AngelsLariat]

At a guess i would say the total apple watch sales are projected to be one million per month initially, of which a sixth may be the $10,000 Gold version.

That is very bullish. Rolex is estimated to produce 7-800,000 watches/year. Do you really think that Apple will sell 3 times as many gold watches?

In comparison, Apple’s watch is a first generation product that is likely going to be obsolete sooner rather than later.

As a smart watch, AppleWatch might have appeal, but I just don’t see that many people lining up to buy it as time-limited luxury jewelry, at least not with a $10,000+ price tag.

In fact my one sixth of a million monthly was an attempt to more rationally interpret media claims of one million per month of the Gold watch alone. I agree with you that even my lowered estimate seems high and i really don't see why people would spend so much on a product that will quickly become obsolete. At the same time, its possible for the Gold version that the guts will be swapped and the Gold case kept. You are right that even my lowered numbers are high compared to current Rolex production numbers. But don't forget Rolex is just one of many luxury brands, and actually quite low in the hierarchy spectrum. Basically I'm trying to be reasonable but without prejudging...Apple has been able to redefine previous preconceptions and I'm not willing to bet against them right now.

Apple issuing gold versions of the iPhone is only slightly more important to the gold market than when Leica issues gold versions of their rangefinder cameras to commemorate anniversaries. Even if we assume that a million of those phones will be sold per month, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the average daily trading volume of gold. The GLD fund alone trades about a million ounces of gold per hour.

[paddyjenkins]

At a guess i would say the total apple watch sales are projected to be one million per month initially, of which a sixth may be the $10,000 Gold version.

That is very bullish. Rolex is estimated to produce 7-800,000 watches/year. Do you really think that Apple will sell 3 times as many gold watches?

In comparison, Apple’s watch is a first generation product that is likely going to be obsolete sooner rather than later.

As a smart watch, AppleWatch might have appeal, but I just don’t see that many people lining up to buy it as time-limited luxury jewelry, at least not with a $10,000+ price tag.

In fact my one sixth of a million monthly was an attempt to more rationally interpret media claims of one million per month of the Gold watch alone. I agree with you that even my lowered estimate seems high and i really don't see why people would spend so much on a product that will quickly become obsolete. At the same time, its possible for the Gold version that the guts will be swapped and the Gold case kept. You are right that even my lowered numbers are high compared to current Rolex production numbers. But don't forget Rolex is just one of many luxury brands, and actually quite low in the hierarchy spectrum. Basically I'm trying to be reasonable but without prejudging...Apple has been able to redefine previous preconceptions and I'm not willing to bet against them right now.

Apple issuing gold versions of the iPhone is only slightly more important to the gold market than when Leica issues gold versions of their rangefinder cameras to commemorate anniversaries. Even if we assume that a million of those phones will be sold per month, that’s a drop in the bucket compared to the average daily trading volume of gold. The GLD fund alone trades about a million ounces of gold per hour.

The daily trading volume isn't relevant. The annual supply of Gold is about 140 million ounces. Even if one million Gold watches were sold every single month (which i think is highly unlikely) and if each contains 2 ounces of Gold, then 17% of the annual Gold supply would be used up. But this assumes purchases of this watch would not cannibalise the existing Gold watch and jewelry market. I believe it would, so the real maximum impact on annual supply would be far less than 17%, maybe just a few percent. But I happen to doubt the figures of one million a month, as i said above i think thats more like the total watch sales projection, of which a sixth is projected to be the Gold version. If thats the case then the maximum absorption of the annual Gold supply would only be about 3%, and realistically much less than that due to the cannibalisation effect. The media stories that claim the Apple watch could use a third of global supply are pure nonsense whatever way its looked at. Edited February 28, 2015 by paddyjenkins

[paddyjenkins]

Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. Anyone imagine the madness of Russia will change if they announce the Ruble to be backed by Gold? No, they might do that and still devalue five minutes later. Their words are clearly worth nothing, just look at the various Ukraine ceasefires. How about North Korea? They could announce Gold backing for their currency, but they would still be a pariah state at war with the South. They could back their currency with the droppings of their chubby little leader, it would still make no difference. Same story for Robert Mugabe and his rogue state. Would make no difference. Would not be sustainable if they did, but if for some reason it was sustainable then it would be superfluous.

What makes a difference is whether the currency is represented by a strong economy and responsible government. Its only when a currency is backed by those things that it is strong.

You people who clamor for a return to Gold standards are wasting your energy. You should focus your attention on demanding governments act responsibly and that ordinary people choose to be law abiding and productive economic agents, not half feral self entitled parasites.

"Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. "

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet

The big difference, of course, is that instead of being a claim on something else, it simply is what it is: a fractional gram of gold. It can be stored, traded, or melted down – just like a coin or bar.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91771/new-way-hold-gold-2015-update

Midas, could i ask you bow Gold is doing? Is it going up? Has is exploded higher? Has the USD collapsed yet?

Im asking because i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance. So how about an update?

Edited March 7, 2015 by paddyjenkins

[suzannegoh]

Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. Anyone imagine the madness of Russia will change if they announce the Ruble to be backed by Gold? No, they might do that and still devalue five minutes later. Their words are clearly worth nothing, just look at the various Ukraine ceasefires. How about North Korea? They could announce Gold backing for their currency, but they would still be a pariah state at war with the South. They could back their currency with the droppings of their chubby little leader, it would still make no difference. Same story for Robert Mugabe and his rogue state. Would make no difference. Would not be sustainable if they did, but if for some reason it was sustainable then it would be superfluous.

What makes a difference is whether the currency is represented by a strong economy and responsible government. Its only when a currency is backed by those things that it is strong.

You people who clamor for a return to Gold standards are wasting your energy. You should focus your attention on demanding governments act responsibly and that ordinary people choose to be law abiding and productive economic agents, not half feral self entitled parasites.

"Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. "

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet

The big difference, of course, is that instead of being a claim on something else, it simply is what it is: a fractional gram of gold. It can be stored, traded, or melted down – just like a coin or bar.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91771/new-way-hold-gold-2015-update

Midas, could i ask you bow Gold is doing? Is it going up? Has is exploded higher? Has the USD collapsed yet?

Im asking because i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance. So how about an update?

It's all going according to plan, but not to worry, the sheeple will inherit the earth:

http://www.infowars.com/lord-rothschild-warns-investors-of-most-dangerous-geopolitical-situation-since-wwii

[midas]

Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. Anyone imagine the madness of Russia will change if they announce the Ruble to be backed by Gold? No, they might do that and still devalue five minutes later. Their words are clearly worth nothing, just look at the various Ukraine ceasefires. How about North Korea? They could announce Gold backing for their currency, but they would still be a pariah state at war with the South. They could back their currency with the droppings of their chubby little leader, it would still make no difference. Same story for Robert Mugabe and his rogue state. Would make no difference. Would not be sustainable if they did, but if for some reason it was sustainable then it would be superfluous.

What makes a difference is whether the currency is represented by a strong economy and responsible government. Its only when a currency is backed by those things that it is strong.

You people who clamor for a return to Gold standards are wasting your energy. You should focus your attention on demanding governments act responsibly and that ordinary people choose to be law abiding and productive economic agents, not half feral self entitled parasites.

"Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. "

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet

The big difference, of course, is that instead of being a claim on something else, it simply is what it is: a fractional gram of gold. It can be stored, traded, or melted down – just like a coin or bar.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91771/new-way-hold-gold-2015-update

Midas, could i ask you bow Gold is doing? Is it going up? Has is exploded higher? Has the USD collapsed yet?

Im asking because i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance. So how about an update?

" i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance "

oooh that is incorrect. I have never held myself out to be an expert. I am just a person who doesn't believe a lot of the lies and bulls**t being spread by governments and bankster oligarchs that the sheeple fall for.

But I really dont care if gold goes up, down or sideways in the short to medium term because as I said earlier ultimately I believe in its 6000 year history more than i believe in the sustainability of printing stacks of paper money to create even more debt..

The gold price has just gone down and apparently that’s because of a stellar US jobs report. And yet when you read some very valid questions Paul Craig Roberts puts forward challenging the accuracy and indeed the truthfulness of BLS (bureau of lies and statistics), you do have to wonder…………….

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/03/06/another-dubious-jobs-report-paul-craig-roberts/

Edited March 7, 2015 by midas

[midas]

"Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. "

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet

The big difference, of course, is that instead of being a claim on something else, it simply is what it is: a fractional gram of gold. It can be stored, traded, or melted down – just like a coin or bar.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91771/new-way-hold-gold-2015-update

Midas, could i ask you bow Gold is doing? Is it going up? Has is exploded higher? Has the USD collapsed yet?

Im asking because i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance. So how about an update?

It's all going according to plan, but not to worry, the sheeple will inherit the earth:

http://www.infowars.com/lord-rothschild-warns-investors-of-most-dangerous-geopolitical-situation-since-wwii

Yes indeed. What will come first war leading to economic chaos or economic chaos leading to war?

[paddyjenkins]

Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. Anyone imagine the madness of Russia will change if they announce the Ruble to be backed by Gold? No, they might do that and still devalue five minutes later. Their words are clearly worth nothing, just look at the various Ukraine ceasefires. How about North Korea? They could announce Gold backing for their currency, but they would still be a pariah state at war with the South. They could back their currency with the droppings of their chubby little leader, it would still make no difference. Same story for Robert Mugabe and his rogue state. Would make no difference. Would not be sustainable if they did, but if for some reason it was sustainable then it would be superfluous.

What makes a difference is whether the currency is represented by a strong economy and responsible government. Its only when a currency is backed by those things that it is strong.

You people who clamor for a return to Gold standards are wasting your energy. You should focus your attention on demanding governments act responsibly and that ordinary people choose to be law abiding and productive economic agents, not half feral self entitled parasites.

"Whether a currency is backed by Gold or not doesn't matter, it makes no difference. "

A New Way to Hold Gold (2015 Update)

Right alongside the bills in your wallet

The big difference, of course, is that instead of being a claim on something else, it simply is what it is: a fractional gram of gold. It can be stored, traded, or melted down – just like a coin or bar.

http://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/91771/new-way-hold-gold-2015-update

Midas, could i ask you bow Gold is doing? Is it going up? Has is exploded higher? Has the USD collapsed yet?

Im asking because i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance. So how about an update?

" i know you are an expert on Gold and economics and finance "

oooh that is incorrect. I have never held myself out to be an expert. I am just a person who doesn't believe a lot of the lies and bulls**t being spread by governments and bankster oligarchs that the sheeple fall for.

But I really dont care if gold goes up, down or sideways in the short to medium term because as I said earlier ultimately I believe in its 6000 year history more than i believe in the sustainability of printing stacks of paper money to create even more debt..

The gold price has just gone down and apparently that’s because of a stellar US jobs report. And yet when you read some very valid questions Paul Craig Roberts puts forward challenging the accuracy and indeed the truthfulness of BLS (bureau of lies and statistics), you do have to wonder…………….

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/03/06/another-dubious-jobs-report-paul-craig-roberts/

I guess you are just another suit, a corporate guy with a job to do. My guess is you are a financial advisor, paid commissions to convince your clients to buy commodity products. Hence the Gold this, Gold that mantra. Me, I'm more of a street person, flip flops and shorts, not a suit. So when i look at Gold i see with un washed eyes. Its shiny, it doesn't decay, it doesn't provide a yield, it seems to be a deflating bubble now and perhaps for another few years. So can you recommend something to invest in that will actually make money?

[midas]

paddyjenkins

I guess you are just another suit, a corporate guy with a job to do. My guess is you are a financial advisor, paid commissions to convince your clients to buy commodity products. Hence the Gold this, Gold that mantra. Me, I'm more of a street person, flip flops and shorts, not a suit. So when i look at Gold i see with un washed eyes. Its shiny, it doesn't decay, it doesn't provide a yield, it seems to be a deflating bubble now and perhaps for another few years. So can you recommend something to invest in that will actually make money?

Good grief I could never live with myself if that’s all I had achieved in life was being a financial adviser no better than a car salesman.

Just put it this way I am more convinced about the arguments for holding it than not holding it. What you decide is up to you. And it should hardly be surprising if it seems that this thread is about a gold this gold that mantra bearing in mind the title of this thread.

But the funny thing is in your post on 6 March in the thread entitled Slide in consumer confidence prompts calls for rate cut when you wrote in your words “ Asia has gone on another debt binge and they look set to enter a second version of the Asian crisis ” I agree fully which is exactly one of the many reasons I’m holding gold as an insurance policy.

Edited March 8, 2015 by midas

[midas]

Anyway it’s obvious at least one person loves gold very much!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-31768756

What I find interesting is that in India, Mumbai customs offers a reward of up to 50,000 rupees per kg of bullion seized for informers in gold smuggling cases. On the other hand Cocaine and heroin informers get only up to 40,000 rupees and 20,000 rupees respectively.

Edited March 8, 2015 by midas

[paddyjenkins]

paddyjenkins

I guess you are just another suit, a corporate guy with a job to do. My guess is you are a financial advisor, paid commissions to convince your clients to buy commodity products. Hence the Gold this, Gold that mantra. Me, I'm more of a street person, flip flops and shorts, not a suit. So when i look at Gold i see with un washed eyes. Its shiny, it doesn't decay, it doesn't provide a yield, it seems to be a deflating bubble now and perhaps for another few years. So can you recommend something to invest in that will actually make money?

Good grief I could never live with myself if that’s all I had achieved in life was being a financial adviser no better than a car salesman.

Just put it this way I am more convinced about the arguments for holding it than not holding it. What you decide is up to you. And it should hardly be surprising if it seems that this thread is about a gold this gold that mantra bearing in mind the title of this thread.

But the funny thing is in your post on 6 March in the thread entitled Slide in consumer confidence prompts calls for rate cut when you wrote in your words “ Asia has gone on another debt binge and they look set to enter a second version of the Asian crisis ” I agree fully which is exactly one of the many reasons I’m holding gold as an insurance policy.

Yes, isn't that funny. How could i possibly agree that Thai household debt is very high but not want to buy Gold. I suppose I'm just not as clever and knowledgeable as you.

[churchill]

Re Apple Watch ….New Patent ?

1. Apple patent: Method allowing them to make 18k gold that has, on a volume basis, less gold than regular 18k gold. http://leancrew.com/all-this/2015/03/apple-gold/ …

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2. Bullion Baron ‏@BullionBaron 14m14 minutes ago

   "Instead of mixing the gold with silver, copper, or other metals to make it harder, Apple is mixing it with low-density ceramic particles."

[midas]

paddyjenkins

I guess you are just another suit, a corporate guy with a job to do. My guess is you are a financial advisor, paid commissions to convince your clients to buy commodity products. Hence the Gold this, Gold that mantra. Me, I'm more of a street person, flip flops and shorts, not a suit. So when i look at Gold i see with un washed eyes. Its shiny, it doesn't decay, it doesn't provide a yield, it seems to be a deflating bubble now and perhaps for another few years. So can you recommend something to invest in that will actually make money?

Good grief I could never live with myself if that’s all I had achieved in life was being a financial adviser no better than a car salesman.

Just put it this way I am more convinced about the arguments for holding it than not holding it. What you decide is up to you. And it should hardly be surprising if it seems that this thread is about a gold this gold that mantra bearing in mind the title of this thread.

But the funny thing is in your post on 6 March in the thread entitled Slide in consumer confidence prompts calls for rate cut when you wrote in your words “ Asia has gone on another debt binge and they look set to enter a second version of the Asian crisis ” I agree fully which is exactly one of the many reasons I’m holding gold as an insurance policy.

Yes, isn't that funny. How could i possibly agree that Thai household debt is very high but not want to buy Gold. I suppose I'm just not as clever and knowledgeable as you.

I’m not clever I only decide for myself what makes sense and what doesn't make sense instead of believing everything that is said by those in power.

Thailand is worried about debt deflation

Deflation risk is now a worry even for China

Major economies such as Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States are all experiencing ultra-low inflation or outright price decreases. Emerging markets like Thailand are under pressure. Deflation is widespread across Europe, and prices have been sliding for years in trouble spots like Greece.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/02/news/economy/deflation-central-banks-china/

........and before you say then deflation will lead to lower gold prices history tells a different tale. It tells us that gold is the asset to own if you believe deflation is real.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/gold/history-what-happens-to-gold-during-deflation/

Edited March 8, 2015 by midas

[schietkop]

Gold - no earnings, no dividends, no interest. Only the greater fool theory to generate a profit - I buy today and hope that a greater fool will buy it from me tomorrow.

I'll pass.

.

Why do central back keep gold as a backup for paper money (yes, they still do:)!)

[AyG]

Gold - no earnings, no dividends, no interest. Only the greater fool theory to generate a profit - I buy today and hope that a greater fool will buy it from me tomorrow.

I'll pass.

.

Why do central back keep gold as a backup for paper money (yes, they still do:)!)

For a variety of different reasons, including:

(1) Just carrying on an historical tradition.

(2) Afraid that selling the gold will lead to a collapse in the gold price

(3) Because it projects an image of stability to other countries (and to its own citizens too)

(4) Because it would be too difficult politically. (Politicans can be gold bugs, too.)

(5) To diversify their portfolios. (Gold tends to be inversely correlated with the US dollar at times of crisis.)

The one reason they do not hold it is as an investment.

[midas]

Gold - no earnings, no dividends, no interest. Only the greater fool theory to generate a profit - I buy today and hope that a greater fool will buy it from me tomorrow.

I'll pass.

.

Why do central back keep gold as a backup for paper money (yes, they still do:)!)

For a variety of different reasons, including:

(1) Just carrying on an historical tradition.

(2) Afraid that selling the gold will lead to a collapse in the gold price

(3) Because it projects an image of stability to other countries (and to its own citizens too)

(4) Because it would be too difficult politically. (Politicans can be gold bugs, too.)

(5) To diversify their portfolios. (Gold tends to be inversely correlated with the US dollar at times of crisis.)

The one reason they do not hold it is as an investment.

Central banks from the rest of the world (i.e., non-Western central banks) have been increasing their holdings of gold at a very rapid pace, going from 6,300 tons in Q1 2009 to more than 8,200 tons at the end of Q1 2013.

At the same time, physical inventories have declined rapidly since the beginning of 2013 (or have been raided, as we argued in the May 2013 Markets at a Glance), and physical demand from large- and small-scale buyers remains solid.

http://bonnerandpartners.com/thinking-buying-gold-read-first/

[midas]

mmmmm…. now I wonder what a finance minister can see coming that some on this forum can’t?

Noonan sells his own Euro shares to invest in gold

Bearish minister hedges against euro deflation

Noonan's personal investments give an insight into his thinking and his views on the risk and opportunities facing the global and European economies and markets. He has a track record stretching back decades of canny private investments

The Minister's decision to divert some of his personal wealth into gold may hint at uncertain times ahead. However some analysts believe that the prospect of deflation in moribund eurozone economies could lift gold prices this year

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/noonan-sells-his-own-euro-shares-to-invest-in-gold-31066811.html

Edited March 17, 2015 by midas

[falkan]

So time to buy again..

[Anthony5]

mmmmm…. now I wonder what a finance minister can see coming that some on this forum can’t?

Noonan sells his own Euro shares to invest in gold

Bearish minister hedges against euro deflation

Noonan's personal investments give an insight into his thinking and his views on the risk and opportunities facing the global and European economies and markets. He has a track record stretching back decades of canny private investments

The Minister's decision to divert some of his personal wealth into gold may hint at uncertain times ahead. However some analysts believe that the prospect of deflation in moribund eurozone economies could lift gold prices this year

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/noonan-sells-his-own-euro-shares-to-invest-in-gold-31066811.html

It would never have come up in my mind that there may be uncertain times ahead. Thanks for the heads up.

[billphillips]

The markets are rigged. When the US$ crashes in a few months you will wish you had physical gold in your hand...there is a very good reason why Ukraine/Germanys'Fort Knoxs gold is missing.

The clock is ticking on fiat currencies and physical gold is your only choice under a new world order.

You forgot the Dutch gold that can't be returned as requested. Where oh where has the U.S. Stored gold gone?

[falkan]

War is what we need for the gold price

[infinity11]

when it's 800-900 i might consider it

300 for sure

there are plenty of other 'options' in commodities why focus on just gold or silver?

[NickJ]

I buy gold whenever I can hit my price. However when I say I buy gold I mean I take cash and go to Yamorat and buy it and bring it home. Only in Ten baht ingots. I dont buy a certificate that allows be to say iown gold....thats stupid.

[billphillips]

when it's 800-900 i might consider it

300 for sure

there are plenty of other 'options' in commodities why focus on just gold or silver?

One word answer .... taxation

[NickJ]

With that being said ......speculators in oil have seen there day......with gold, well I just just bought a ten baht ingot to add to my collection.....no paperwork....just wraped in red paper......