Thai stocks: JAS/JASIF

[fletchsmile]

This thread would make a great case study in how not to invest

[Asiantravel]

I believe JAS will go up.

That was on March 30th. JAS closing price 5.8.

Fast forward to today, JAS is currently 3.1 - a loss of more than 50%.

Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

Pleased to see your investor intuition is so acute.

How did the investment course go, by the way? Have you refunded the money they paid you yet?

they have been told that no matter what happens to keep their minds fixed on being able to buy those yellow Porsches in the adverts

[AyG]

I believe JAS will go up.

That was on March 30th. JAS closing price 5.8.

Fast forward to today, JAS is currently 3.1 - a loss of more than 50%.

Investor's intuition. Takes training to develop it. Following fundamentals. Buying at the right time etc.

Pleased to see your investor intuition is so acute.

How did the investment course go, by the way? Have you refunded the money they paid you yet?

Whoopsie! 5.8 to 3.1 is not a loss of more than 50% - it's a mere 47%. Sorry about that. Rather surprised our resident investment expert didn't pick up on my silly mistake.

Still, it has dropped further to 2.94 which is just a fraction of a percent short of 50%. (49.3% if my calculator isn't playing up again.)

[Orac]

Not paid first instalment of the now overpriced 3g licence yet - having to renegotiate with BKK Bank as apparently they bid three times more than their original financing proposal stated.

[blackcab]

The company I work for owns a building with an AIS mast on the roof. About a month ago AIS asked permission to install a second box that will house control widgets. The box had now been installed and is sitting empty.

I have no idea why they need more space for more control widgets that they haven't installed yet - your guess is as good as mine. The original installation has been working just fine for several years.

Our company is also getting a new contract with a 7% raise in rental income.

[Orac]

The company I work for owns a building with an AIS mast on the roof. About a month ago AIS asked permission to install a second box that will house control widgets. The box had now been installed and is sitting empty.

I have no idea why they need more space for more control widgets that they haven't installed yet - your guess is as good as mine. The original installation has been working just fine for several years.

Our company is also getting a new contract with a 7% raise in rental income.

Don't know how the technical stuff works but could it be the existing box is for 900MHz and they now need to add new equipment for 1800Mhz they recently acquired - possibly don't want to just swap out 900 equipment as they can keep using it until JAS stump up first payment for licence (plus 68bn baht bank guarantee for payment in 3 years!).

[wordchild]

Not paid first instalment of the now overpriced 3g licence yet - having to renegotiate with BKK Bank as apparently they bid three times more than their original financing proposal stated.

As predicted above it looks like JAS is having serious difficulty in putting together the financing for their 4G licence and may have to hand it back. In doing so they would lose their 700 mil deposit. (source todays BP). What a mess!

Ironically (after the initial loss of face) it may turn out to be good news for the share price. However I am not sure I would want to invest in a business run by a chief executive who was prepared to put its survival at risk with his ego driven bid!

Edited January 29, 2016 by wordchild

[Orac]

Not paid first instalment of the now overpriced 3g licence yet - having to renegotiate with BKK Bank as apparently they bid three times more than their original financing proposal stated.

As predicted above it looks like JAS is having serious difficulty in putting together the financing for their 4G licence and may have to hand it back. In doing so they would lose their 700 mil deposit. (source todays BP). What a mess!

Ironically (after the initial loss of face) it may turn out to be good news for the share price. However I am not sure I would want to invest in a business run by a chief executive who was prepared to put its survival at risk with his ego driven bid!

To be fair they have been somewhat stitched up by NBTC who sold it one the basis of it bring a scarce resources and afterwards found another load of spectrum down the back of the sofa plus handed a load more over to CAT and TOT enabling AIS and True to get their hands on it - wonder where this will leave True if JAS don't pay.

[whiteman]

jas is still tanking 2.88 and I do not see Mac Wally showing any more of his div statements Maybe he now users them for bum paper or he could have already moved out of his 2000 bhat apartment in nockon no wear to a 1000 k per month squat

[OneZero]

I have serious questions about the legitimacy of this whole auction process when personalities in a company like JAS (or perhaps all the bidders) can cause such problems that we now see.

[JB300]

NBTC confident to receive first instalment payment for 900 MHz spectrum from two bidders...

BANGKOK: -- The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) is confident that the two winners of 900 MHz spectrum will not default their first instalment payment amounting to 8,040 million baht as widely speculated, said NBTC secretary-general Thakorn Tanthasit on Monday.

True Corporation and Jasmine International won the bids for 900 MHz spectrum by offering a total of 151.95 billion baht – 76.3 billion baht for True and 75.67 billion baht for Jasmine.

Mr Thakorn said that the bidding conditions are very stringent that it is very difficult or almost impossible for the winners of the bid to miss their obligation of instalment payment.

In case of a default, he explained that each of the successful bidders would have its 644 million baht money posted as guarantee for the bidding confiscated and and would have to bear the damages caused to NBTC for the default and expenses to incur in case new bid is to be staged by the NBTC.

Moreover, he warned that the two winners might be disqualified and lose their existing operating licenses.

Both True and Jasmine International have enough time until March 21 to come up with the first instalment payment

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/891411-nbtc-confident-to-receive-first-instalment-payment-for-900-mhz-spectrum-from-two-bidders/?utm_source=newsletter-20160201-1529&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Edited February 8, 2016 by JB300

[wordchild]

so Jas have defaulted and not paid the first installment, what a mess! they will (at a minimum) lose the bidding deposit c650m bt, but the real issue for investors is what other penalties/sanctions may now be imposed on JAS and on its other businesses. they may have made things worse by spinning this out instead of going to the NBTC earlier with hand wringing apologies or tried to cut some sort of deal (maybe with advanc).

There will possibly be a legal scrap but, if there is, JAS dont look to have a strong hand here and they have an embarressed and likely very pissed off NBTC to deal with. The company still has a strong balance sheet (5/6 billion net cash) but their remaining business could be severely impacted by this. Pete and the rest of his board should go but i am not sure there are outside shareholders left with the muscle/inclination to do this. depending on how nasty things get with the NBTC there could be implications here for JASIF as well.

Edited March 22, 2016 by wordchild

[wordchild]

Having said that, this is probably a better (or less worse) outcome for shareholders than if JAS had gone ahead with the licence purchase and then failed to build a mobile business of sufficient scale to make any money. under that scenario there was a real risk of the whole company going bust. While i think there could be severe consequences for JAS the NBTC will not want to lose JAS completely as an important player in the broadband market. However,IMO, until it becomes clearer what the scale of the reaction from the NBTC is going to be the shares remain for the brave only!

[fletchsmile]

If someone's investing long term in a company a key element to understand is the quality of the management. In this case JAS management has been severely lacking as Wordchild mentions. Not to mention a complete failure in setting controls and budgeting around limits at an auction. For that someone needs to be held accountable.

There might continue to be a bit of a bounce on the shares as being oversold. Anyone investing long term in JAS has some fundamental questions and uncertainties though: quality of management, impact of all this, being two big negatives. For the wider industry it's also not easy to assess the potential impact of regulatory issues as well as future auctions. The other 3 competitors now look like they have less competition though...

[Orac]

I see SET have halted trading in JAS so far today until they clarify the impact on the non-payment.

Edited March 22, 2016 by Orac

[fletchsmile]

I see SET have halted trading in JAS so far today until they clarify the impact on the non-payment.

Yes. I saw that too. First saw it on TFEX and then SET. Can't post a link, but here's the messages.

Given someone on Thai Visa above recommended these, I think other posters should be aware and warned and draw their own conclusions. So have posted the notices below.

Not impressed either that JAS didn't disclose this to SET - poor governance

TFEX announces temporary halt of JAS Futures

___________________________________________

As SET temporarily halted trading on the underlying JAS,

In accordance with its authority of Thailand Futures Exchange Regulation,

TFEX decides to suspend trading of JAS Futures, for a certain period,

from the morning session of March 22, 2016 onwards.

TFEX will recommence the trading of JAS Futures when

the underlying JAS resumed trading.

Further information, please contact SET Contact Center 0-2009-9999

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and also....

H sign postedon "JAS" and DWs havingJAS as underlying asset and SET requires JAS to clarify

impact regarding JASMBB’s unfulfillment for Spectrum Licensing.

On December 21, 2015, Jasmine International Public Company Limited (JAS) has disclosed

information to SET that Jas Mobile Broadband Company Limited (JASMBB), a 100% subsidiary of JAS, won

the auction of 900 MHz Spectrum license at the total bid price of THB 75,654 million. As a result, JASMBB

has to follow the condition precedent before officially awarded the license within 90 days after receiving the

official notification of auction result. (Details as shown on JAS’s news on December 21, 2015) Due to

JASMBB failed to fulfill the terms and conditions set prior to being awarded the license within a specified

period on March 21, 2016.

The mentioned information is significant which the listed company have to disclose to SET within

9.00 am of the next business day. However, SET has not received the clarification on the above issue from

JAS. Due to that information is significant which may affect investment decision making. Thus, in order to

inform the complete and clear information to investors, the SET therefore posted a "H" sign to suspend

trading on JAS's securities effective from the morning trading session of March 22, 2016 until the SET has

received the clarification as follows;

1. Why JASMBB, a 100% subsidiaries of JAS, failed to fulfill the terms and conditions set prior

to being awarded the license.

2. The impact of JASMBB such as the amount of forfeited collateral, expenditures and probably

occurred damages to JASMBB, JAS has to take joint-responsibility.

3. Specify the impact to financial status and business operations of JAS according to JAS’s

financial statement yearly 2015 shown that JAS established JASMBB on August 21, 2015 to be

the mobile phone business service provider at THB 350 million paid-up capital and lended

loans to JASMBB amount THB 302 million, totally THB 652 million.

******************************************************

Edited March 22, 2016 by fletchsmile

[likewise]

sold mine last week .

[wordchild]

JAS in a statement to SET, (sorry cant seem to link) seem to be saying that they dont think there will be any financial impact on the rest of their business, and they are putting the blame on the failure of a "Chinese" partner to get the neccessary approvals together (from Chinese regulators) in the time available. i think this statement (as with previous statements from JAS) will be treated with a certain amount of cynicism by many (incl maybe the NBTC) who follow this company.

Having said that i wouldnt be surprised to see the shares have a bit of a relief bounce when they do reopen on the SET (tomorow?) . maybe Likewise sold a litte early!

Edited March 22, 2016 by wordchild

[wordchild]

looks like JAS are also going to propose (at their agm ) that they do a buyback of around 16% of their equity via a tender at 5bt a share. this would use up the majority of their cash and could leave them vulnerable if they are hit with further significant costs associated with their licence default. chance to get out?

Edited March 23, 2016 by wordchild

[OneZero]

looks like JAS are also going to propose (at their agm ) that they do a buyback of around 16% of their equity via a tender at 5bt a share. this would use up the majority of their cash and could leave them vulnerable if they are hit with further significant costs associated with their licence default. chance to get out?

Couldn't this 5 THB / share buyback announcement (even prior to their board decision on it) be subject to helping insider shareholders at company expense. Good Corporate Governance? Something wrong here? Could all that Mr Pete et al within JAS heirarchy have done recently (auction, market turmoil, share buyback announcement timing) be overlooked in US or European markets? Just asking. I don't know.

[fletchsmile]

looks like JAS are also going to propose (at their agm ) that they do a buyback of around 16% of their equity via a tender at 5bt a share. this would use up the majority of their cash and could leave them vulnerable if they are hit with further significant costs associated with their licence default. chance to get out?

Couldn't this 5 THB / share buyback announcement (even prior to their board decision on it) be subject to helping insider shareholders at company expense. Good Corporate Governance? Something wrong here? Could all that Mr Pete et al within JAS heirarchy have done recently (auction, market turmoil, share buyback announcement timing) be overlooked in US or European markets? Just asking. I don't know.

We were discussing this pantomime or should I say Thai lakorn LOL on another Thai forum. My thoughts are that

One element to the recent share price increase is that in the last couple of weeks or so they have been talking about buying back around 16% of the shares at 5 baht per share.

This seemed a bizarre move in the circumstances. Given that they were struggling to find the cash to meet the bid payment, I wonder where the idea came from to use cash to buy back their own shares.

Ignoring what may be smoke and mirrors, and any reasoning behind such a move, and assuming it would be real.

Share price the day before the announcement on 7 March was 3.14. They then announce the potential buyback of around 16% at 5 baht a share.

This theoretically means someone could buy 6 shares at 3.14, and 16% or 1 in 6 could be bought back at 5 baht. So there's a potential gain in there for investors, but would need fuller analysis to quantify exactly what's going on.

This probably explains part of the increase in the last couple of weeks among other factors

What's also interesting is that this share buyback above the current market price was announced on 7 March. However the share price jumped from 2.78 to 3.14 a gain of around 13% in the couple of days before the announcement. This is an unusual gain, and way above the index movement.

Makes you wonder as you say what inside information is floating around that isn't fully available and disclosed, and what some people get wind of beforehand.

The whole pantomime raises governance issues on quite a few levels.

Edited March 23, 2016 by fletchsmile

[likewise]

JAS in a statement to SET, (sorry cant seem to link) seem to be saying that they dont think there will be any financial impact on the rest of their business, and they are putting the blame on the failure of a "Chinese" partner to get the neccessary approvals together (from Chinese regulators) in the time available. i think this statement (as with previous statements from JAS) will be treated with a certain amount of cynicism by many (incl maybe the NBTC) who follow this company.

Having said that i wouldnt be surprised to see the shares have a bit of a relief bounce when they do reopen on the SET (tomorow?) . maybe Likewise sold a litte early!

wanted out, better safe than sorry, much better deals out there

[wordchild]

I think the other thing that makes me wary of this stock is the enormous daily volume in the shares eg average daily volume (over the last several months) is c465m shares ie over 5% of the shares outstanding. so the entire share capital is traded every month or so. This wouldn't in itself be so unusual (esp as there is a sizeable warrant issue) except that insiders (pete and family) own at least 30% of the company and I have not seen any disclosure of a change in insider holdings; so the entire rest of the equity is changing hands every 15 days or so.

There have also been some very unusual high volume days. As Fletch points out above, the share purchase was first announced on the 7/3; prior to this 2.3bn shares were traded on the 2/3 (as the shares moved up from 2.8 to 3.1). And then another 1.0bn was traded the following day, 3/3 (as the shares hit 3.65). So almost 80% of the free float (ie not counting insiders) traded on those 2 days just prior to a price sensitive announcement. On the actual day of the share purchase announcement 7/3 another 2.4bn shares were traded. Today is looking like another big day with close to 500 mil already traded, as I write this, just before noon.

Edited March 23, 2016 by wordchild

[wordchild]

its interesting that the boss of True has called for the Thai SEC to investigate the trading in JAS shares, (as quoted in the BP). Maybe he knows something!

[MacWalen]

Ladies and gentlemen, show time! I am preparing a post for you. 

He who laughs last, laughs longest. Is it how we say it in English? 

The time has come. 

 

Walen School of Investing - multiply your money!

Edited September 20, 2016 by MacWalen

[dinga]

3 hours ago, MacWalen said:

Ladies and gentlemen, show time! I am preparing a post for you. 

He who laughs last, laughs longest. Is it how we say it in English? 

The time has come. 

 

Walen School of Investing - multiply your money!

Reminds me of another English saying - "Even a blind pig can stumble over the occasional acorn" [even if this bizarre saga does somehow deliver something to mug investors] 

[fletchsmile]

On 31/03/2015 at 3:29 PM, MacWalen said:

The company is profitable and there is still a lot of room for growth. But I don't have to be explaining to you why, do I? I just expressed my opinion. In investing you don't know things exactly. By the end of the year could be 7 baht, maybe more. Nobody can tell exactly. Could it go lower before it goes up? Yes, that could also happen, that is why in investing you need to diversify in case you are wrong.

 

On 01/04/2015 at 5:51 PM, MacWalen said:

Got me confused, I just got 206,000 baht after tax from Jasmin. Hard ot keep track of all those dividends. Enjoy my trader friends. Learn how real money is made by investors.

 

On 03/04/2015 at 0:35 PM, MacWalen said:

My transaction yesterday. I think getting back to 7.5 - 8 baht is within a year totally possible if there is no major correction or crash. It is a profitable company.

Edit: again I forgot the file.

 

Let's look at some of these claims in more detail:

 

1)  By the end of the year 7 baht?  

Reality: ended the year at 2.84 baht

 

2) Received some dividends.

Reality: to have received those dividends someone would have been holding over at over 9 baht per share if I recall from this thread.

So not really impressed that someone holding when it was 9 baht claims it's been a great investment when the price is 7baht+, 18 months later

 

3) 7.5 - 8 baht within a year:

Reality: Never really held anywhere above 6 baht within a year

 

Now what we've seen in the last 2 days is some unusual activity by Pete B buying up a significant proprtion of the shares himself which has obviously driven the price up in the last 2 days. To what extent that's an artificial distortion or not remains to be seen. Without Pete B tendering 7.25 baht a share it was struggling to even break thru 7 baht. 

 

When this share was touted, I recall any understanding of the telecom market and the business model was missing in these claims; especially any reference to the possible impact of auctions. Transparency around the shares also leaves a lot to be desired. Management's running of the company has flouted various good governance practices and the antics in the auctions were just laughable

 

Still I did note that some of the more savvy posters on here got in several months later than suggested in the quotes above.

They also called the bottom much closer after you'd suffered very high losses, and got in at much more attractive prices and with a better undertsanding of the risks  

 

[wordchild]

I am pleased for MacWallen that he didn't get carried out on this one, but to claim it as an investment success would be a stretch.

From his earlier posts I think it was clear (and I am sure he would also now admit) that he did not have a full understanding of the risks in this situation. Especially ahead of the auctions.

Many people (who likely know much more about this company than MacWallen)  feel that  K pete  is someone who should be treated (even now) with great caution!

Edited September 22, 2016 by wordchild

[lkn]

Currently NYSE:NKE (Nike Inc.) is a good buy, people who listen to me and buy this stock will make money!

 

I will be back in 8-36 months to tell you all how you should have trusted my great intuition!

[JB300]

I look fwd to it... neither Presidential candidate is electable so my #gut# says stay the f.c.u.k. away from the US Market until which ever muppet gets in has been there for 2 or 3 years...


Hey but that's just my gut, I'm no McWalen guru