Will Condo Prices In Bangkok Go Up Or Down?

[OldAsiaHand]

What will happen to the property market now that there's a coup in process?

nothing. zero. if you don't believe me, just wait and see.

At last. One man who actually understands how the property market really works here.

[samran]

What will happen to the property market now that there's a coup in process?

nothing. zero. if you don't believe me, just wait and see.

At last. One man who actually understands how the property market really works here.

just my impression of how the property market works here, from the perspective of the little guy.

The prime stuff is sold/given to the insiders ahead of time for new builds. Usually important people that one will need favours off in future. It is then resold for a tidy/obscene profit before completion. That the final buyer, the one who moves in, is actually paying way over the odds, and will have a tougher time selling it later down the track, as the average Thai hates second hand property anyway.

For those looking to buy to lease, it always appears that as a landlord, your rent is always going to be in competition to some rich Thai landlord, so loaded, that he/she can afford to rent/not rent their property at whatever rate they ###### well please. This rate which has nothing to do with getting a 'market' rate of return on your investment, that should you fail to rent out, will mean the mortage repayments will come out of your pocket. Really rich Thai's don't do mortgages.

If you are buying here, you are buying to live in it yourself. Thinking that property prices really go up here (like it does in the west) is frought with danger.

[ThaiPauly]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

Which project ThaiPauly? You paid your deposit in Jan 06 and they will be ready April 07? Did it open for sales in Jan 06 or had it already broken ground? If it hadn't broken ground yet, that is some fast building (15months)....

The development is called Vista Gardens in Suk 71

Its a two tower project, the first tower is almost complete and will be ready for occupation in November. If it had just been a hole in the ground I would not have purchased, but building was well under way when I did..

It is never advertised in the papers as they really don't have the need to....it sells itself

[merlion]

I am in the process of buying a Condo in the Sukhumvit area.

Since I paid my deposit in January, with an expected move in date of April 07 prices have gone up 10,000 Baht a square metre, with no more freebies like air con and fitted kitchens.

A few weeks ago I went to pay my next installment and the manager informed me that the my unit would probably not be ready until June 07. This is when he told me about the price increases.

I pointed out to him that I had a clause in MY contract that stated that if the unit was not completed by April 07 I would be entitled to a complete refund of my deposit (This is a very reputable company)

He said that if I wanted to I could have all my deposit back within a week as he thinks he can sell the unit I am buying for more than he sold it to me for !

As the whole Condominium only has 20% of its units left for sale, out of 200 (mostly low floors) I reckon that I SHOULD in theory make money on it.......when someone Thai offers you an immediate refund you have to be on a winner?

So I will continue to purchase it. Anyway I have until April to invoke the clause, which is pretty watertight.

Which project ThaiPauly? You paid your deposit in Jan 06 and they will be ready April 07? Did it open for sales in Jan 06 or had it already broken ground? If it hadn't broken ground yet, that is some fast building (15months)....

The development is called Vista Gardens in Suk 71

Its a two tower project, the first tower is almost complete and will be ready for occupation in November. If it had just been a hole in the ground I would not have purchased, but building was well under way when I did..

It is never advertised in the papers as they really don't have the need to....it sells itself

Congrats to ur purchase, lets hope the property prices in bkk would not be affected by the bloodless coup.

[trajan]

[ Congrats to ur purchase, lets hope the property prices in bkk would not be affected by the bloodless coup.

the coup (depending on the coming implementation) may actually help the economy and nurture growth, so dont automatically assume negative effects....

[MartinBKK]

As i have posted in another thread i spoke to an agent a few weeks ago and she told me that sales were "extremely slow" and this was before this weeks events.

Most people seem to think that the political uncertainty is going to drag on for around a year. Whatever you think of Thaksin the fact is a democratically elected leader has been removed from power. I would feel extremely uncomfortable investing my cash in a country where an event like this is possible and im sure im not alone.

Add to this the new visa regulations i have to say im very glad i rent my apartment. I dont think you will have big queues of people wanting to buy property here in the short term.

[grapetable]

Supply will out strip demand in 12 months. Too much capital heading into non-producing assets. World economic growth to slow to 3% pa. US property bubble deflation, high debt levels, Thai political uncertainty...............down she goes. You heard it here first. Sell and get outtttttttttttttttttttttt.

[grapetable]

How many Cranes can you count in BBK? Too bloody many!

[percy2]

How many Cranes can you count in BBK? Too bloody many!

Very few.

Compared to '87 through '96.

Compared to Singapore , Seoul , KL etc.

[westcoastnative]

You're 100% right about prices in SF. I just spoke with my daughter and that's exactly what she said. She DID think that Bangkok was a world class city on par with SF and others.

The price homes are very inflatted out her in the S.F. Bay Area and they are starting to drop. In the SF/Oakland area I have read that prices are inflatted as much as 50% and we are long due for a correction. I have included the link to my source.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/03/13/real_estat...rkets/index.htm

Edited September 22, 2006 by westcoastnative

[trajan]

Supply will out strip demand in 12 months. Too much capital heading into non-producing assets. World economic growth to slow to 3% pa. US property bubble deflation, high debt levels, Thai political uncertainty...............down she goes. You heard it here first. Sell and get outtttttttttttttttttttttt.

yes yes the sky is falling

the first six years I started living here permanently, I rented...god was that a mistake that I regret, money down the drain......should have bought from day 1, mortgage would have been completely paid-off on main home last year....

[ThaiPauly]

As any Realtor will tell you, the main selling point of any property, be it Condo or house is Location, Location, Location.

if you are close the the sky train or underground the more chance your property has of realising a profitable sale.

Bear in mind...its not just us farangs that buy property..The Nippons buy a lot too.. The Condo I am buying is predominantly Nippon in terms of who has bought there.

They demand very high standards...so I have jumped on their gravy train.

I intend to sell my Condo anyway before completion, with the aim of making a profit....watch this space.

I will telll you honestly if I achieve my goal or not

TP

[merlion]

As any Realtor will tell you, the main selling point of any property, be it Condo or house is Location, Location, Location.

if you are close the the sky train or underground the more chance your property has of realising a profitable sale.

Bear in mind...its not just us farangs that buy property..The Nippons buy a lot too.. The Condo I am buying is predominantly Nippon in terms of who has bought there.

They demand very high standards...so I have jumped on their gravy train.

I intend to sell my Condo anyway before completion, with the aim of making a profit....watch this space.

I will telll you honestly if I achieve my goal or not

TP

I really do hope the property prices in bkk will not be duely affected by the coup. Best of luck to all of us.

[donx]

As any Realtor will tell you, the main selling point of any property, be it Condo or house is Location, Location, Location.

if you are close the the sky train or underground the more chance your property has of realising a profitable sale.

Bear in mind...its not just us farangs that buy property..The Nippons buy a lot too.. The Condo I am buying is predominantly Nippon in terms of who has bought there.

They demand very high standards...so I have jumped on their gravy train.

I intend to sell my Condo anyway before completion, with the aim of making a profit....watch this space.

I will telll you honestly if I achieve my goal or not

TP

Did you originally buy this condo with the intent of selling it before it was completed or did something come up that made you change your mind about actually living in it?

[ThaiPauly]

As any Realtor will tell you, the main selling point of any property, be it Condo or house is Location, Location, Location.

if you are close the the sky train or underground the more chance your property has of realising a profitable sale.

Bear in mind...its not just us farangs that buy property..The Nippons buy a lot too.. The Condo I am buying is predominantly Nippon in terms of who has bought there.

They demand very high standards...so I have jumped on their gravy train.

I intend to sell my Condo anyway before completion, with the aim of making a profit....watch this space.

I will telll you honestly if I achieve my goal or not

TP

Did you originally buy this condo with the intent of selling it before it was completed or did something come up that made you change your mind about actually living in it?

After scouring the market for a good deal, we found this place, at the time we were unsure if we would actually live in it (part-time-we have no intention of relocating to BK), Rent it, or considering the amount of lead time before completion, sell it before its ready. If we take this option then we pay no tax. Some properties change hands 3-4 times before they are ready to move in to.

I am not talking about vast profits here though, maybee 10-15% but that will depend on what prices do between now and February-March next year.

If I cannot sell it at a profit, I will at least get my full deposit back

[backflip]

"In the SF/Oakland area I have read that prices are inflatted as much as 50% and we are long due for a correction. "

My impression was that the OP was interested in Bangkok real estate, not SF/Oakland.

[thaigene2]

"In the SF/Oakland area I have read that prices are inflatted as much as 50% and we are long due for a correction. "

My impression was that the OP was interested in Bangkok real estate, not SF/Oakland.

His point is very much on topic. The market was overheated here too - just like the rest of the world - which I believe is his main point. You can flame as much as you like pal, but the marktet in Thailand will not be immune from other global economic forces. A slower economy and higher interest rates will mean a slower housing market anywhere and everywhere. The developers are still asking for 80-100,000 per metre. But are they still getting it?

How many buyers are speculators and how many plan to live-in? Only those who want to live-in should be buying now (IMHO).

[astral]

Since I added the option, I see there are a lot of decrease votes.

If there is a hiccough due to the coup IMHO it will be minor.

Having seen 2 coups in the past I tend to believe the motives of the Generals.

[number6]

well up no down who the xxxxxx knows if your investing just go with what you feel dont try and

naalyse some u win some u loose

Up no down im betting on up a lot in right place location location location as pros say

[backflip]

"You can flame as much as you like pal, but the marktet in Thailand will not be immune from other global economic forces."

I neither implied, nor should you have inferred, that the real estate market is immune from "other economic forces". Compare the Bangkok real estate market of today, as compared to a decde ago, if that suits you. However, my main point remains, comparing the real estate market of San Francisco to that of Bangkok is foolish.

[DCC]

Just some random thoughts to consider re: this thread.....

SF and BKK are not comparable – SF truly is a world class city and is home to some of the highest proff. salaries in the world and THAT’S why RE is costly there. BKK is world famous and does have some world class amenities but the RE market of interest to Farangs is tiny and not indicative of the market as whole (so no the coup won’t have an impact overall).

Asia has only 1 truly world class city and that is S’pore – RE market there being stable and $$$.

The value of residential RE is principally that of shelter, everything else is secondary. That said, it has historically been a good place to park your money while living in it. The run up on values of the last few years has created surge in RE “investors” who assume they know what their doing and that prices will continue to outpace salaries and inflation and, HELLO, that simply ain’t gonna continue.

Asia, no doubt, will outpace the west in financial growth and that will also, no doubt, fuel demand for better housing. But the bulk of that demand will be by locals, whatever city, and I’m sorry but they love new and cheesy.

BE CAREFUL!!!

[backflip]

"In the SF/Oakland area I have read that prices are inflatted as much as 50% and we are long due for a correction."

Opps, my mistake. The poster's doesn't have first have knowledge, rather he's "read" something.

Too, the "we" is ambiguous..."we" as in "the SF area", or "we" as in "the Bangkok area". Perhaps he means...heck, who cares.

[thaigene2]

I agree with you Astral that it never seems to fall much - and condos usually just sit empty (e.g. after 97).

But I think that this time with the amount of easy credit that's been out there for Thais to speculate on the market, with big BAHT signs in their eyes that they will all be able to flip the condos and get rich, rich, rich is going to make for a rather harder landing this time.

Did they borrow from the bank to buy (speculate)? Those who didn't and can sit on the property can afford to. Those who borrowed from the bank through easy credit will have no such luxury..The banks will foreclose, the Thais will lose their deposits and the banks will try to sell the places off for cheaper to recover the amount they lent. That means downward pressure on prices.

How much - I don't know. But if the banks were lending to speculators at an average of 90%, then you could see a 10% correction maybe? Let's wait and see.

[Dakhar]

Folks Thais don't follow western rules of realestate.

And yes Spore is a good place, but whatch Shanghai, Dalian, and Yantai. In fact, advice to the OP look into those places also.

BKK, no no no no and no. From what little I can tell... land appreciates, buildings do not, the buildings rot though.

[ThaiPauly]

Folks Thais don't follow western rules of realestate.

And yes Spore is a good place, but whatch Shanghai, Dalian, and Yantai. In fact, advice to the OP look into those places also.

BKK, no no no no and no. From what little I can tell... land appreciates, buildings do not, the buildings rot though.

This reply is just conjecture, as I said before I can give you an honest thumb rule in 6 months time

[ilyushin]

Too few new unit deliveries in the next 2+yrs . I think an existing or new transfer property will gain. Certainly will hold its value.

Prices will go up 11%-22% in 2 years. My vote on Medium and High property.

[Dakhar]

Folks Thais don't follow western rules of realestate.

And yes Spore is a good place, but whatch Shanghai, Dalian, and Yantai. In fact, advice to the OP look into those places also.

BKK, no no no no and no. From what little I can tell... land appreciates, buildings do not, the buildings rot though.

This reply is just conjecture, as I said before I can give you an honest thumb rule in 6 months time

News flash, every post here is conjecture, mixed with facts. I happen to have or I should say the wife happens to have a 7 town house complex that was built 2 years ago. It probably makes 7% ROI. If I had the money again, I would not do it. The building is already showing signs of age.

Her thoughts are, the land will always be there... dispite the condition of the building. Wow, the land, one nang Whooopdi! I am sure one day Tesco is going to try to buy that huge chunk of drained swamp one day from us.....

But hey prove everyone wrong... If you want a Townhouse complex, I know of one for sale.

[teej]

The buy/not buy question relies heavily on whether or not the buyer is paying cash as well... as of right now, given the high interest rates here in Thailand (Kasikorn MLR is 7.75%?!?), taking out a loan for purchase of house/townhouse/condo for investment purposes is questionable at best... Cash, on the other hand, makes things a lot easier -- it always does.

[sinam]

The buy/not buy question relies heavily on whether or not the buyer is paying cash as well... as of right now, given the high interest rates here in Thailand (Kasikorn MLR is 7.75%?!?), taking out a loan for purchase of house/townhouse/condo for investment purposes is questionable at best... Cash, on the other hand, makes things a lot easier -- it always does.

I would have to agree here. If you are going to buy real estate in Thailand and you are not extremely wealthy you had better be buying it first and foremost to live in and use. If it appreciates in value fine. That's not to say you don't buy in a good location from a quality outfit. Its possible I may move to a new location in southeast asia for a while at some point in the future and I wouldn't have any trouble renting but I wouldn't have great expectations on returns. If it covered the bills

that would be dandy.

Si Nam

[Beavis and Butthead]

As any Realtor will tell you, the main selling point of any property, be it Condo or house is Location, Location, Location.

if you are close the the sky train or underground the more chance your property has of realising a profitable sale.

Bear in mind...its not just us farangs that buy property..The Nippons buy a lot too.. The Condo I am buying is predominantly Nippon in terms of who has bought there.

They demand very high standards...so I have jumped on their gravy train.

I intend to sell my Condo anyway before completion, with the aim of making a profit....watch this space.

I will telll you honestly if I achieve my goal or not

TP

And they are famous for massively overpaying for everything. What I'd do if I were you is grab your deposit back but they won't give it back. They're blowing smoke up your ass as these developers are so famous for. I've had my dealing with them and they tell you anything you want to hear. I don't trust them as far as I can throw one of their cranes. Take your deposit back and report back. You can't possibly fear that you won't be able to get another condo for such a special deal, LOL. That's gotta be the only one like it