EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK votes to leave

[mommysboy]

There can't be a second referendum anyway. Not enough time,

The EU may even initiate Article 50 themselves, taking the referendum result, and Cameron's departing statement as notice. It depends. Merkel usually gets her way. She has called for calm.

UK Parliament must reflect. As I said there is a large majority in favour of 'remain'. Also the Tory hard right is not the majority of the Tory party. So the next PM would likely be another 'wet'.

As many have said, this is likely to be a long, drawn out process with a great deal of disruption. If the Brexiters do not have a clear strategy, then the knives will be out. Judging by the postings on this forum, there does not appear to be a strategy at all.

I've been through tough times before. You get through them, and on reflection, some of the things I thought dreadful turned out for the best. For instance, I don't want to lose Scotland, but lets be honest they are going sooner or later, and economically it is a blessing for UK. So while it is sad that the Union is broken up, in the long term we'll be happy.

[soalbundy]

@soalbundy at post #633

But that is your opinion.

Why did you not bring that fact to the attention of the government or your MP before the vote?

Where I come from, which is the UK, anything over 50% is a majority, therefore whichever side had won the vote would have been the victor.

You voted to remain. I voted to leave.

If your side had won the vote I would have accepted the result and got on with my life.

I would NOT have whined about the majority was not large enough and moaned for another referendum like so many of the losing side are doing.

I wouldn't have been overjoyed but I WOULD have accepted the result.

Now if I could do that, why can't you?

I don't have an MP, I haven't been in the UK for 40 years. You are right though, although i would have thought it only logical that what constitutes a majority should have been decided on by the government before a referendum. I can only think that 'call me Dave' knew it would be close but that stay would win. A referendum isn't binding on Parliament, to ignore it wouldn't be political suicide as some think since nearly, possibly far more now, 50% want to remain. Let us wait and see, it ain't over till the fat lady say's so although Brussels seems keen to get it over and done with quickly and have told Cameron he doesn't have to formally invoke article 50 in writing just announce it at the next meeting on Tuesday,something he cant do as Parliament has to ratify the referendum, perhaps they wont.

[mommysboy]

Thinking about it, my only objection to leaving is the fear of UK break up.

That aside, the EU can go take a flying f..... as far as I'm concerned.

[Guest]

The happy winners #TakeControl

[soalbundy]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

[Brewster67]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

Yeah.... after all you are much safer in a German swimming pool or cinema.

[mommysboy]

I want to retract my earlier statement that the UK financial sector will be decimated. As someone rightly pointed out it will be impacted only, possibly not at all.

But equally, I do think the Brexiters are somewhat underestimating the strife ahead:

Here's a very informative article for my fellow knee-jerkers to consider. I liked it because it puts the fearful to rest, but also should serve as a wake up call for rather complacent Brexiters.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36628595

[soalbundy]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

Yeah.... after all you are much safer in a German swimming pool or cinema.

The swimming pool you are referring to was in Austria ( a nice civilized place incidentally) and as for the cinema, a 19 year old mentally unstable youth with a starting pistol. I haven't seen any violence personally in Germany although it must happen as it does everywhere but you certainly don't get the drunken loutish behavior and stabbings so seemingly prevalent in 'good old England'. I haven't witnessed any violence in Thailand either,perhaps i go to the wrong places.

[MissAndry]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

If I didn't live in London, I would't guess in my wildest dreams that all the conversations on the streets are in foreign languages.

It's unbelievable, and I've never seen anything about it on the internet, newspapers or TV.

As for violence in London, never seen any at all, a bit of shouting and chanting from football crowds on the underground is about it.

In my bedsit in Queensway, (15 of them in one building), gay English couple on the ground, me on the top, everyone else is a foreigner.

1 building, 12 foreigners, 3 English ...... that's the way London is.

News and media have an agenda, you read and see what THEY want you to read and see.

If Eastenders reflected reality, it would need English subtitles.

Edited June 26, 2016 by MissAndry

[soalbundy]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

But you ain't been THERE, voters are there............. ................

Are you from Essex ? I can inform myself without being there, voters are there, not me, which is why i didn't vote.

[mommysboy]

@ soalbundy

So why are you posting on the subject if YOU have had nothing to do with the UK for decades. So you do not know what is happening on the UK streets do you....?

So where are you, decades where.....?

Gawd 'elp us...........

Germany and since my retirement Thailand. I don't have to be on the streets to know what is going on,there is the internet and newspapers, in fact with all the stabbings going on in the UK i would have thought it dangerous to be on the streets at all. I read many German and British newspapers on the web as well as Australian ( most of my family now live there) and American newspapers,then there is Reuters and Bloomberg, managers magazine (German). Half my day is spent reading. I don't have to smell the blood to know what it is.

Yeah.... after all you are much safer in a German swimming pool or cinema.

The swimming pool you are referring to was in Austria ( a nice civilized place incidentally) and as for the cinema, a 19 year old mentally unstable youth with a starting pistol. I haven't seen any violence personally in Germany although it must happen as it does everywhere but you certainly don't get the drunken loutish behavior and stabbings so seemingly prevalent in 'good old England'. I haven't witnessed any violence in Thailand either,perhaps i go to the wrong places.

Look mate, you aren't in any way an Anglophile, and clearly don't live there. You are just ranting.

[Brewster67]

Just seen a petition on the government website asking.

If the England v Iceland game is not won by a margin of at least 60% of the combined goals scored, or that if the winning team has less than 75% of possession of the ball, then the game should be re-played.... Lol

[soalbundy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

[soalbundy]

Why would you leave the west country for London transam, money i suppose, i lived in Essex and then Enfield so i am damaged to start with.

[JHolmesJr]

two and a half million muppets now want to reverse their vote, a protest vote gone wrong, many didn't think (i could leave that as a statement but i will continue) that we would really exit they were just protesting against the elite.

Yes…..it's people with names like lulu45 and eyeinthesky74.

[mommysboy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

You've said your piece. If you don't have any interest, or can't be constructive, why post?

EU can go its merry way, and so can UK.

Edited June 26, 2016 by mommysboy

[thai3]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

[mommysboy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

Yes in later postings I have softened my stance. That is quite right.

We could just walk away without negotiating a trade agreement at all, and likely not be effected too badly.

[soalbundy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

So you took a German route, a forty year German route, and you are telling Brits what to do.......... .........Gawd.................

I'm telling nobody what to do,just giving my opinion which is allowed. I wont feel the effects of a Brexit i have a German daughter and grandchild who live in Munich, the rest of my family is in Australia and i have a son in Thailand(no British birth certificate) 10% of my pension is in pounds the rest in Euro's. In fact if the EU came unstuck and we went back to the DM i would probably get a better exchange rate. I can watch the punch up, i don't have to take part in it.

[soalbundy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

You've said your piece, now do one.

are you being crude? How like you.

[MissAndry]

Why would you leave the west country for London transam, money i suppose, i lived in Essex and then Enfield so i am damaged to start with.

I also lived in the West Country, around 75% unemployment, and the other 25% are almost all on minimum wage.

[mommysboy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

You've said your piece, now do one.

are you being crude? How like you.

Have you considered your attitude?. You seem to be displaying the very attitudes that drove UK to an exit vote.

[soalbundy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

That's true,in fact the falling pound would mitigate any trade barriers, if any, were put up. It has however been said that the UK would have to go the 'Norwegian way' something the Norwegians themselves don't like,they are basically still ruled from Brussels but have no say at the table.

[soalbundy]

I am not your 'mate' momysboy but you are correct despite being British i am no anglophile. I am glad that after my having stated several times that i haven't been in the UK for decades you realize that i don't live there. I fail to see where i am ranting, drink some tea.

You've said your piece, now do one.

are you being crude? How like you.

Have you considered your attitude?. You seem to be displaying the very attitudes that drove UK to an exit vote.

What attitude? are you being rude or me? i am merely giving my opinion, nothing more. I disagree with Brexit, you don't,two differing opinions why not leave it at that.

[mommysboy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

That's true,in fact the falling pound would mitigate any trade barriers, if any, were put up. It has however been said that the UK would have to go the 'Norwegian way' something the Norwegians themselves don't like,they are basically still ruled from Brussels but have no say at the table.

A good reason not to bother negotiating any agreement at all.

EU could place tariffs, but not at all in German interests. Not one iota. Germany is dependent on UK exports, and really doesn't need a trade war.

Norway has to pay for its agreement. If EU wants their 12 billion for us to join the club, they'll have to come up with a mutually favourable deal. Britain won't accept 'free movement' conditions.

My guess a simple walk away will be best.

Yes you have an opinion, and it is an issue important to you in many ways. I apologize for my comments. You did come over as antagonistic. I wanted to remain by the way. Just to avoid the fall out, and strife of an exit.

Edited June 26, 2016 by mommysboy

[dlodratsab]

"..................what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?"

You're right Manfred, what do we have left after 40 years in the EU?

finally FREEDOM, ,it s historical day for all nations, thank you all Brits, bye bye massive immigration, bye bye Turkey with its 90 million people, bye bye the criminal gangs of eastern Europe, if EU leaders wanted peace in the world they should have supported Assad and Russia and not side with the terrorists.

GREAT BRITAIN will survive and become stronger it sets the example for the rest of us, time for a change.

I'll raise a glass or two tonight.

Time to put the great back into Great Britain.

my gut feeling is, gentlemen, that the exact opposite will occur.

your 'great britain' will split apart. scottland will separate and re - unite with the eu. what will happen to london, the financial hub of europe?

what means do you have to make you great, (again?)?

and apart from that, given the magnitude of this event, the margin of 'win' over 'loose' is way too slim. there will be a lot of disgruntled brits having to live with and suffer from this short sighted decision.

Scotland will "SEPARATE" ?....Halleluja ...Best thing for us...please hurry up....don't understand how they were allowed a vote in the Brexit referendum anyway.

[soalbundy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

That's true,in fact the falling pound would mitigate any trade barriers, if any, were put up. It has however been said that the UK would have to go the 'Norwegian way' something the Norwegians themselves don't like,they are basically still ruled from Brussels but have no say at the table.

A good reason not to bother negotiating any agreement at all.

EU could place tariffs, but not at all in German interests. Not one iota. Germany is dependent on UK exports, and really doesn't need a trade war.

Norway has to pay for its agreement. If EU wants their 12 billion for us to join the club, they'll have to come up with a mutually favourable deal. Britain won't accept 'free movement' conditions.

My guess a simple walk away will be best.

I don't think it is that easy, Norway is a small country with oil and fish to barter and nothing much else. The UK is far more heavily interwoven, the financial district alone is complicated,not for nothing does London want to sit at the bargaining table. Problems are now arising with the air industry,free access to European sky's etc. Germany has a large trade with the UK but i wouldn't say they are dependent,BMW i believe sells 10% of its cars to the UK ( i used to work for them) they also have several factories in the UK not the least being Hams Hall with one of the most advanced methods of production in place, i have been there to look at the newest engines to illustrate them,hardly anyone working on the shop floor, even the engine is assembled automatically,the German engineer i worked with was inconsolable that the wire loom for instance still had to be assembled by hand, but he was ''working on it''. A falling pound could only benefit BMW production wise but would be a hindrance on the sales side,uncertainty will undoubtedly hinder further investment. Airbus will keep their production of wings in the UK but wont trigger further investment, when it comes down to the nitty gritty it's all about money,jobs and investment with a bit of politics thrown in Angela Merkel is all for keeping things toned down to give cool heads a chance because it really is about money.

[Guest]

LOL, Scotland can veto to prevent brexit. This is getting funnier and funnier day by day.

Nicola Sturgeon says MSPs at Holyrood could veto Brexit

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the BBC that Holyrood could try to block the UK's exit from the EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244

[soalbundy]

Having looked at this though there is an extremely high price to pay. Britain leaves without any trade agreements in place with Europe. These will have to be renegotiated over many years.

We do not need any trade agreements to trade, the EU has none with China or the USA

That's true,in fact the falling pound would mitigate any trade barriers, if any, were put up. It has however been said that the UK would have to go the 'Norwegian way' something the Norwegians themselves don't like,they are basically still ruled from Brussels but have no say at the table.

A good reason not to bother negotiating any agreement at all.

EU could place tariffs, but not at all in German interests. Not one iota. Germany is dependent on UK exports, and really doesn't need a trade war.

Norway has to pay for its agreement. If EU wants their 12 billion for us to join the club, they'll have to come up with a mutually favourable deal. Britain won't accept 'free movement' conditions.

My guess a simple walk away will be best.

Yes you have an opinion, and it is an issue important to you in many ways. I apologize for my comments. You did come over as antagonistic. I wanted to remain by the way. Just to avoid the fall out, and strife of an exit.

apology accepted, i don't think i was antagonistic, arrogant would be a better word but i have been like that since childhood

[cumgranosalum]

Looks like Britain has found a new leader.......

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244?post_id=901754926558568_1122287497838642#_=_